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Which MMOs today, will be around in a decade?

EnerzealEnerzeal Member Posts: 326
in The Pub at MMORPG.COM

1999 - Everquest

1997 - Ultima Online

1999- Asheron's Call

 

This thread is rather simple, as all the best threads are! In 1999, would anyone have expected any of the three games listed above to still be alive right now?

Fast forward to today, make a guess, which games today are good enough to survive from today, until 2023? Or which are supported enough by a hardcore fanatical fanbase to keep the game servers active?

 

My personal pick could only be Eve Online, and World of Warcraft.

 

But what is yours?

 

::EDIT:: This is not what games will last 10 years. This is what games will still be around in ten years time from today. This list includes any and all MMOs.

Comments

  • tank017tank017 Member Posts: 2,192

    with games like Warhammer and Vanguard surviving..

     

     

    whos to say they all wont survive till then?

  • eye_meye_m Member UncommonPosts: 3,317
    thats a tough one because so many factors are unknown. I would think GW2 would be there as well, since GW is still active and going after ~8. Couldn't say about others but I would think that a majority of them would stand a good chance. It's still cheaper to keep an active title going than it is to make a new one.

    All of my posts are either intelligent, thought provoking, funny, satirical, sarcastic or intentionally disrespectful. Take your pick.

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  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 7,383

    Originally posted by eyelolled
    thats a tough one because so many factors are unknown. I would think GW2 would be there as well, since GW is still active and going after ~8. Couldn't say about others but I would think that a majority of them would stand a good chance. It's still cheaper to keep an active title going than it is to make a new one.

    I'd almost agree with this in it's entirety, except NCSoft bucks that trend entirely. Now, technically ArenaNet runs GW/GW2, and NCSoft does the publishing... but, ANet is owned by NCSoft, so who's to say... I'd be surprised if any existing NCSoft game made it until then.

    I think most people/publishers realize that an MMO on life support isn't free money, but it isn't a large investment either, and generally generates a steady (albeit meager) profit. I haven't seen a whole lot of outright closures outside of NCSoft, and can't think of many - Matrix Online and SWG are probably the biggest non-NCSoft closures I can think of really from a non-independant publisher (and SWG had more to do with renewing an IP license than server population/revenue really, and possibly MO did as well, although I'm not as familiar with that game).

    I can see a high turnover rate in the F2P market - they really rely on high throughput to get enough people to buy stuff in the shops, and the majority of players don't stick around in free games. So once you've spun through your target audience once, there is much more there to burn through one a second go-around. Eastern F2P already have a fairly high turnover rate, but they also churn out new titles just as fast to replace them (if not moreso).

    Subscription I don't think will die entirely, WoW will stick with it as long as they possibly can in some form or fashion, and I think it makes a good alternative to strictly F2P - much like the western hybrid formats are experimenting with now: SoE has done it for a while now.

    As much as I personally like the ANet B2P model, I don't think it will be that popular either. Big games that aren't going subscription can require it, but if they have enough muscle/reputation/hype to get people to pay a very high box fee, they probably have enough clout to require a sub along with that.

    Cash shops will be everywhere. I think they already are in some form or fashion. I can't think of an MMO today that doesn't have one.

    That being said: I think the hybrid F2P/Sub model is pretty much going to be the new standard: play the game for free if you want, ala carte options from our cash shop, or subscripe to get the whole enchilada... and don't forget to buy your xp boosters and cowboy hats from the cash shop.

    Any game that's F2P only is basically just looking to churn the water, pick up the whales they can, and dump the game once they've burned through the audience and the whales stop biting. I don't think any game can really survive long term on this model, although maybe if they can hit critical mass they can (LoL maybe?)

  • GravargGravarg Member UncommonPosts: 3,424
    WoW will make it to 10+ years, it's only 2 more to go!  Rift will make it to 10 also, if they keep the content coming, this game will be the largest MMO in history, probably with like 5000 dungeons/raids, and a bajillion square miles of zones to explore lol.  Although they did recently lay off a bunch of people, so maybe they're going to slow down content, but I hope not.  I love the speed of content releases.  It got the attention of Blizzard I think, that's why they released 5.1 so fast, and 5.2 is right around the corner too.  Seems like they're going to do releases every few months now too.
  • WalicWalic Member Posts: 41

    Are we talking like active games or games like WOW(only subs)? 

     

    b/c as long as there are games going to F2P and still surviving that way I see more then we think.

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,507
    Most of the games that have been out for at least a year and still have at least 50k people paying to play them (whether a subscription or routinely buying things from an item mall) will probably still be around in a decade, unless they're made by NC Soft, which seems to like shutting games down.  Server and bandwidth costs are only going to get cheaper, customer support costs only a small fraction of your revenue, and it doesn't take that much revenue to pay for a skeleton crew of a few employees continuing to work on a game.
  • BeezerbeezBeezerbeez Member UncommonPosts: 302
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    Most of the games that have been out for at least a year and still have at least 50k people paying to play them (whether a subscription or routinely buying things from an item mall) will probably still be around in a decade, unless they're made by NC Soft, which seems to like shutting games down.  Server and bandwidth costs are only going to get cheaper, customer support costs only a small fraction of your revenue, and it doesn't take that much revenue to pay for a skeleton crew of a few employees continuing to work on a game.

    I'm with Quiz on this one.  I definitely see EVE making it 10 more years.  WoW seems like a given at this point.  I'm curious to see how LOTRO, TSW, and SWTOR fair.  As long as LOTRO has the prospect of new getting closer to Mordor I think they'll have a draw.  SWTOR has an IP that'll keep people around, and aside from not being my type of game, it seems to have a draw for plenty of people.  I'm unconvinced TSW will make it that a decade.

  • TheocritusTheocritus Member LegendaryPosts: 10,021
    EQ should be on expansion 30 about then and WoW will be on about their 10th.......EQ Next and Titan probably will not have launched by then.....
  • xaritscinxaritscin Member UncommonPosts: 350

    EVE, some of the NCsoft titles like Aion and Lineage II as my best competitors, i expect Guild Wars 2 to die in a few years (havent even played, but i see how its going).

    i expect WoW to keep living some years more, loosing subs every year until te reach an almost stable playerbase. other ancient titles which exist yet like Ultima Online will be present too, Ryzom.

    i dunno more, 

  • TwoThreeFourTwoThreeFour Member UncommonPosts: 2,155
    FF XIV if they succeed with relaunch. 
  • EnerzealEnerzeal Member Posts: 326
    Originally posted by TwoThreeFour
    FF XIV if they succeed with relaunch. 

    Couldnt that work with anything though? I think Marvel Heroes will be if they succeed at launch?

    To be honest FFXI has that cult following, and it now offers a rather niche area with forced grouping that is getting more and more difficult to find.

  • bingbongbrosbingbongbros Member UncommonPosts: 689
    in 10 years none of the games out now will exist.  The planet will have gone through a nuclear war and the only thing left will be mutated mole people who hunt any surviving humans down for gladiator sports in their underground cities.

    Playing: Smite, Marvel Heroes
    Played: Nexus:Kingdom of the Winds, Everquest, DAoC, Everquest 2, WoW, Matrix Online, Vangaurd, SWG, DDO, EVE, Fallen Earth, LoTRo, CoX, Champions Online, WAR, Darkfall, Mortal Online, Guild Wars, Rift, Tera, Aion, AoC, Gods and Heroes, DCUO, FF14, TSW, SWTOR, GW2, Wildstar, ESO, ArcheAge
    Waiting On: Nothing. Mmorpg's are dead.

  • KenFisherKenFisher Member UncommonPosts: 5,035

    Interesting thread, and a very tough call.

     

    LOTRO, EVE, WoW, Darkfall... also a dozen of the Asian themed games, which seem to have great longevity.

     

    I guess DX 9.0c will be around for a while :-)

     

    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  When I don't understand, I ask.  Such is not intended as criticism.
  • waynejr2waynejr2 Member EpicPosts: 7,771
    Originally posted by bingbongbros
    in 10 years none of the games out now will exist.  The planet will have gone through a nuclear war and the only thing left will be mutated mole people who hunt any surviving humans down for gladiator sports in their underground cities.

     I think you mean world war 5!  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8Mz4ISiW4w

    http://www.youhaventlived.com/qblog/2010/QBlog190810A.html  

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    Kyleran:  "Now there's the real trick, learning to accept and enjoy a game for what it offers rather than pass on what might be a great playing experience because it lacks a few features you prefer."

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  • g4m3sh4rkg4m3sh4rk Member Posts: 40
    Well, I think all of them will be around except maybe the truely, truely, terrible games. However, how many of them will be successful leaders of a new age of MMORPGs not a single one. Not even remotely, will any of these games have the same effects the classics did.
  • c0existc0exist Member UncommonPosts: 196
    the classics will be around because they have longevity, most of these new games are 3 month games, get bored and on to the next ( tera, rift, gw2) .  im hoping ffxiv relaunch will be closer to ffxi at launch but i doubt it.  
  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690
    Doubt any of these games today will exist 10 years down the road. They aren't that good to last.
    30
  • TwoThreeFourTwoThreeFour Member UncommonPosts: 2,155
    Originally posted by Enerzeal
    Originally posted by TwoThreeFour
    FF XIV if they succeed with relaunch. 

    Couldnt that work with anything though? I think Marvel Heroes will be if they succeed at launch?

    To be honest FFXI has that cult following, and it now offers a rather niche area with forced grouping that is getting more and more difficult to find.

    GW2 and SWTOR succeeded with launch, so that is evidently not enough in my eyes for any company as I don't believe any of those two titles will be around in a decade. SquareEnix is a strong gaming company with a heritage with protect, so if FFXIV gets a decent relaunch (which at this point would be seen as a success relatively speaking) I am willing to bet that they will be willing to support it for a decade due to it being a FF game.

  • PhaserlightPhaserlight Member EpicPosts: 3,078

    Quiz, as usual, wins the thread.

    Vendetta Online will probably be around; I've found it compelling enough to post about it here like a maniac, and will probably continue until they pull me off-stage with a cane.

    Some others I can think of, mostly from reading about them here (or experiencing them firsthand):

    Rift

    WoW

    Ryzom

    Eve

    ATITD

    Neocron

    Ultima Online

    Meridian 59

    If the world ends before the next decade, my wager is on Greenland's ice sheet melting through a positive feedback loop generated by CFCs and greenhouse gas emissions.

    "The simple is the seal of the true and beauty is the splendor of truth" -Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar
    Authored 139 missions in Vendetta Online and 6 tracks in Distance

  • g4m3sh4rkg4m3sh4rk Member Posts: 40

    WoW is dieing.. it is hemoraging subs like every other game. I would be very surprised if its around in 5.

     

    Edit: Ultima Online....seriously that game is 15 years old @_@ come on man!

  • NikopolNikopol Member UncommonPosts: 626
    Originally posted by Enerzeal

    <snip>

    My personal pick could only be Eve Online, and World of Warcraft.

     </snip>

     

    Those two would be my picks, too.

     

  • NadiaNadia Member UncommonPosts: 11,798

    most mmos do not shutdown

    probably 80% of the mmos out today - will still be around 10 years from now

    EQ2 fan sites

  • SharessSharess Member UncommonPosts: 293

    Guild Wars

    Guild Wars 2

    World of Warcraft

    EvE

    image

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  • nate1980nate1980 Member UncommonPosts: 2,074
    I honestly don't think any of them will be around in 10 years. Think about how much the genre is changing now that developers are figuring out that people want something different from WoW. I think games around 10 years from now will not be recognizable to games around right now. That's assuming the genre will still be around. 
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