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The next era of MMO's. The future.
ozmono
Member UncommonPosts: 1,211
I am curious about what people think will happen in the future of the genre so I have presented several questions below. Feel free to answer any, all or any number of questions you wish or anything related I didn't mention.
Will they stay roughly the same with the odd change happening here and there? or will they change dramatically?
Will they integrate new peripherals such as the emerging virtual reality systems?
Will a few mass appealing games continue to dominate ? or will the MMO players have more choices and consequently scatter across several niches?
Will the cost of producing them keep spiraling out of control? or will new technologies make them cheaper to produce?
What effects will crowdfunding have on the genre?
Will MMOs even continue to survive with the current populations? or will growing genres such as social and mobile games make them endangered?
What do people expect from the future from MMOs?
Comments
Here's what I expect:
Action third person combat with automatic targeting
Race specific "personal" storylines with character as hero, including extensive use of instancing / phasing
Rush to cap then raid or PVP
Average time where a player stays with a game at three months
An increase in games called sandbox by the developer, that are themepark-sandbox hybrids with focus on PVP
MMOFPS / MOBA hybrids called MMOs but with gameplay similar to Halo
Fast F2P conversion for the few games that do open as subscription games
One from the list. I do see production costs staying extremely high. The sheer bulk of artwork needed to meet player expectations on "graphics" (their term not mine) will keep costs up. Along with short longevity, I see this making MMORPG development extremely risky as an investment. In turn this puts more pressure on crowd funding, which I expect to have a terrible reputation in 2 to 3 years because of funded projects that fail and bankrupt producing nothing.
Honestly I don't believe there will be anything revolutionary.
There will be an evolution. More games to choose from, more styles (scifi, real life, more RPG centric, FPS centric, perhaps even sports mmos? etc)
But nothing big that will shake the MMO world. I don't think there are hidden treasures in the MMO world.
I expect the next generation of MMo to have more player made content. Look at the popularity of Minecraft, and now the upcoming Neverwinter which allow players to build dungeons. Look at how popular the Player housing feature has been these last 8 years. It's been the number one most requested feature in a MMO IMO.
now imagine a game that gives players the type of content making elements of a limited game engine.
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
I think greenreen is spot on in a lot of her assessments. On the social media part, I genuinely thought that would have kicked in years ago, but the disheartening trend lately has seemed to be zero risk taking in the western market, only venturinginto new waters once it's been proven to work on the other side of the globe.
In a way, the next era is here, and it's in the form of MMOs made for everyone but the average MMO gamer. Wizard 101, Clone Wars Adventures, Free Realms and many of the social worlds (IMVU, Kaneva, Smallwrolds, etc) have proven very successful in the past few years. It's also here in the form of catering to the eastern audience, a very different consumer base than the NA/EU audience.
The Diku-style MMORPG will still be around for years to come, but MMO as a platform has already evolved passed the EQ/WOW crowd in features and gameplay.
The next era is here. The people clinging to what a 'true' MMO 'should be' are just not part of it.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
It would help to know what young teens up to people in their 20s are looking for in an MMO. I don't know.
Eventually I think large AAA MMOs will wind down and become less common. More popularity and success will come from smaller, focused crowdfunded MMOs.
looking for something that isnt a grind.
I can see why GW2 hype was huge off the no grind concept. but was misleading as we know today.
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
I hope we shall crush...in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations, which dare already to challenge our government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country." ~Thomes Jefferson
This isn't a signature, you just think it is.
I suspect that current trends will continue for the next five to ten years, especially in NA. Long term? I suspect its a matter of technology. If/when the current middleware systems evolve so that large numbers of people are no longer required to create these games, then we may see some real changes.
http://www.heroengine.com/herocloud/
http://www.bigworldtech.com/
Those are just two of the current systems. Over time they will evolve even further. Quality content is, and will likely remain the most expensive part of these games. But given advances in procedurally generated content (and beyond that advances in general AI), that too can be dealt with. One approach is this,
http://pcg.wikidot.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Procedural_generation
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/181853/5_tips_for_using_procedurallygenerated_content_in_your_game.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence
Crowd sourcing has some promise (short to mid term), but if it continues to expand, it will eventually end up choked by government regulation (to "protect" people of course...). Side stepping the investment types will only be tolerated as long as the money involved is minor. Once its no longer minor, the investors politicians will see that it doesn't become a source of effective competition.
One of the current bottlenecks is the major investment (of other peoples money) thats required to create these games. That means that many of the important decisions get made by suits, rather than Dev's. Suits tend to be quite risk adverse, which results in a lot of Me Too type projects (as we've seen over the years).
In about a year, im going to say it will be pretty much the same. 3 years from now I can see the pay to play model being used even less then it is now. I can also see more sandbox MMOs being available. I think kickstarter may help a bit with this genre since it allows the possiblity for new developers to rise and put out their ideas.
I actually find it pretty funny how some people act like this technology is no where around or that it's bulky. If you look at some videos of CES the Oculus Rift stole the show. It's the developers version and it's not bulky at all. The consumer version should be out with in a year or 2. I can almost most certainly see this being used in MMOs. The developer versions where sent out this month, and I know nearly all developers who saw it wanedt to work with it.
If anything needs to be worked on for Virtual Reality, it's the control schemes.
I am going to give it 2 - 4 years before we see an MMO emerge that uses this.
More choices. This is actually what I been hearing from developers. It's one of the reasons they are looking into the Free to Play model. Free to play games don't need large numbers to make money. They only need a small group of big spenders. Not many people realise this, but a good example would be Nexon with their game Mabinogi. A few people on the forums decided to start talking about how much money they have spent since playing, and some spent well over $4,000 in a 3 - 5 year span. Nearly everyone who posted spent at least $1,000. It just goes to show you what players are willing to spend for a game they really enjoy. I have spent close to $500 on that game since the 5 years of playing it.
New technologies always make things cheaper in the long run. It's just a matter of time.
As I have said above, it's likely to help new ideas get out there. We will probably see more sandbox titles emerge.
Actually, if I remember correctly, spacetime studios has a few MMOs out on the mobile market that are very popular.
Everyone expects something different. If developers are correct, hopefully there will be something for everyone.
If you want to see the future, check out Star Citizen, Elite and World of Darkness. Maybe EQ Next as well, but not sure how revolutionary it will be.
And there is the mystery title "Titan" by Blizzard. Who knows what that will be.
Everything else that is coming up is just a rehash of old concepts, with improved graphics and 10 GIGs of voiceovers.
Secrets of Dragon?s Spine Trailer.. !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwT9cFVQCMw
Best MMOs ever played: Ultima, EvE, SW Galaxies, Age of Conan, The Secret World
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2X_SbZCHpc&t=21s
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The Return of ELITE !
While I love the concept of Elite and Star Citizen and am a supporter of CCP I gotta say the future of MMOs, the real future will be in the hands of people like the guys making http://albiononline.com/the-game/ because for them MMOs are a labour of love first and foremost, profit is not in their mindsets but love of the medium itself.
^
I am expected (by the regular grumps) to predict an Anti-WoW Lashback Revolution, but I really don't see that coming.
I do, in fact, predict that will be the upcoming Marketing approach, possibly for several years...but talk's cheap, particularly marketing talk. Earlier this year they were trending towards the Sandbox bullets. This month, apparently, it's the DAoC bullets. Next month? Pull bullets from Asheron's Call?
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
I expect MMOs to change a lot less than other genres over the next 5 years. Publishers will maintain a vice-grip on this genre and remain resistant to the changes and progress that's bubbling now.
The Oculus Rift will see widespread support rapidly following its consumer launch, with nearly any game that has a first-person perspective. The first-person shooter, first-person adventure, and first-person roleplaying genres will be the most affected by the device, but MMOs should be no slouch. Although MMOs don't frequently have first-person views (and when they do, they tend to suck), I think the existence and popularity of the Oculus Rift will change that.
I suspect that the two major companies spearheading OR support in MMOs will be SOE and CCP—although two very different groups targeting very different markets, I think they have the best-demonstrated interest in this sort of thing, especially in the case of CCP's eagerness to jump on new technology.
I don't think any MMOs will be designed for (that is to say require) the Oculus Rift, though. The only reason I can see for that would be for balancing purposes in an MMOFPS, but I think the OR will not see adoption in MMOFPSs (or any multiplayer FPS) for exactly that reason: the OR would feel terrible without detached aiming, and detached aiming would seriously disadvantage anyone without the OR.
In what timeframe? I think WoW will still top the charts in 5 years, despite being quite the dinosaur. In about 8 years, though, I seriously doubt it, and I don't expect that referring to MMOs as a current genre will make much sense in about 12 years. Everything will be online, about half of it will be multiplayer, and the type of gameplay WoW and other current MMOs offer will, itself, be a niche. Within 26 years, the genre will be irrelevant. It'll be akin to how MUDs were so suddenly eclipsed by MMOs. That bigger fish is going to be hungry.
It'll be the same way these things always go. Developing something state-of-the-art will always be prohibitively expensive, but what's state-of-the-art now will be peanuts shortly.
Again, much less than other genres. I view it as a renaissance for gaming in general, where we're now able to really see where what developers want to develop overlaps with what players want to play, without publishers distorting the picture... but MMOs are just that much more expensive.
I think that social/mobile games will see far more change in the next 5-10 years than MMOs will, that's for damn sure, and they'll benefit massively from crowdfunding. I don't think they threaten other genres, though, or that they are the future of any genre. In fact, I think they'll be moving further and further away from them, taking the augmented reality route while others take the virtual reality route. They're often confused, but those are two very different frameworks that'll each have their own sets of genres.
On MMORPG.com we can post that MMO devs are just doing it for the money and don't love their work/project/community. Unless they're indie, of course. And even then, they only get that pass until their game is successful, then they're in the 'no love, just money' bin with the rest of the evil game companies.
On MMORPG.com we can create threads dedicated to talking about how MMO devs are deceitful liars. Unless they're indie, of course. And even then, they only get that pass until their game is successful, then they're in the 'no love, just money' bin with the rest of the evil game companies.
On MMORPG.com, we can base entire arguments on the known fact that MMO devs are lazy, uncreative non-gamers and rarely will that premise be disputed. Unless they're indie, of course. And even then, they only get that pass until their game is successful, then they're in the 'no love, just money' bin with the rest of the evil game companies.
Seems to be a pattern there.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
I think the future of MMO's holds vastly improved user-created content along with next generation AI for NPCs.
User-created content allows for never ending content and interest.
Improved AI allows for what we all want : NPCs that have an actual vocabulary, personality and real time reaction to current events or interactions. I hope the days of an NPC standing in one place for all of eternity or following a preprogrammed path or allowing only a set number of answers to our questions will be gone forever.
1996-2013
I think the major theme has been to try to make MMORPGs out of single player RPGs by creating a persistent world, phasing it for individual players and to improve cutscenes and tools which help creative teams to push out content.
The one huge eyeopener that has had developers amazed is the effectiveness of f.ex. Minecraft's simple gameplay mechanics alongside strong community to create content for it. And same for Bethesda's games.
Future is social
I'm hoping that MMORPGs stay true to their genre as being truly social games. This means that the underlying game mechanics have to be designed in such a way that as the individual player's wealth increases, so does the risk of losing it and the cost of maintaining it. I also hope that the extensive leveling perioids (tutorials of 90 character levels) are thrown away.
1) Permanent death turns players into quest hubs. It's a great mechanic to make that happen. If you always run into a risk of losing it all, simple low reward tasks ramp up in risk as your wealth increases, and the game logically pushes you to delegate jobs (player generated quests and stories) for other players.
2) The cost of keeping property functioning (maintenance, basic needs, etc) also seem very much a field that's not being explored fully. This allows players to become their own quest hubs as their value increases in the community.
New ways to think of immersion and designing minigames around them
Previously the word was taken as a synonym to the convincing nature of the setting (lore, story telling methods, etc). But now the blogosphere has been full of chatter about how ineffective the word is if left with such one-dimensional meaning.
Some people (like me) get immersed by how much the game demands of your motoric skills. Some people need the setting to be convincing. For some people, the social aspects and social interaction seems immersive, and some people are achievers, who want to see it all, and as long as they have things to explore, they are immersed.
This means that MMOs have to design their own minigames for these primary types of players within the MMO:
1) For twitchy killers: an ARPG side of the game which is created dynamically with tons of random factors.
2) For achievers: The game has to be designed in such a way that the community generates the achievements and prestige for various acts so that the developers don't have to push content out faster than these types consume it.
3) Socializers, well, MMORPGs should be designed so that these guys love every aspect of it. No facebook interactions, no twitter links, no chat channels. Something subtle and within the confines of the game.
4) For explorers, the world has to be forever changing with enough variables to keep the same landmass interesting.
With this kind of a ground design, any content added ontop of it by developers creative team lasts for years and years, no matter how small the update is, since the game already functions perfectly just on it's own.
On MMORPG.come we post our opinions about everything and anything no matter how wrong.
I am not saying those guys are the future because they're indie, I am saying they're the future because they got no investors/bosses who demand a certain level of profit for their investment which stiffles creativity because as a dev you're afraid to take risks because it might fail even worse than by just copying other games. Indies as a subset of developers tend to make more innovative games because they usually do not have a boss to answer to though this also means they lack funds to make Tera-level experiences as well but as far as I am concerned any evolution of the MMO genre, IE take it to the next era, will most likely come from an indie developer unless a perfect storm happens within a major developer ( someone/ a team has a eureka moment, the bosses and investors sign off on it and the development team gets the time it needs to do it right so yeah perfect storm).
"I have only two out of my company and 20 out of some other company. We need support, but it is almost suicide to try to get it here as we are swept by machine gun fire and a constant barrage is on us. I have no one on my left and only a few on my right. I will hold." (First Lieutenant Clifton B. Cates, US Marine Corps, Soissons, 19 July 1918)
If games are not making profit, there is no future for games therefore developers not focusing on profit cannot be a future of the industry...simple logic.