Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
The Gaming Market - Where is it going?
theanimedude
Member UncommonPosts: 1,610
Alright, to start, ill explain a little on how I even got the idea to start this topic.
As most of you have, I have sat around and thought about making my own MMORPG. Yes, its hard, yes it takes a long time, but would it be worth it? Thats what im trying to find out. So bear with me here.
If you look at the gaming market, theres an obvious, and rising, trend of companies trying to cash in on the MMORPG frenzy. Ever since the big hits of EverQuest, Ultima Online, and any other MMO that hit it big, people have been trying to emulate that. But in the last year, with the huge rising of World of Warcraft, my question to you is this: How many MMORPGs can the market take?
From a business perspective, once a market is flooded, then your net gain goes down. What I mean by this is that if too many people are trying to sell the same product, you will not get as much profit as you would if you were the only one. Being able to monopolize, or atleast be one of the only people to do something gives you a great advantage. Now that there are so many MMORPGs trying to compete for your money, it is hard for them to get your attention anymore. That is why, and you have seen this, a lot of MMOs are now offering free service, and selling items in a shop. The reason for this is because people are attracted to free, and then once they are there, they are willing to pay money, because they feel since it is free they can justify their spending.
Anyways, this brings me to my question. Do you think the market will continue to grow? or do you think it will eventually hit a cap, where the market will be so flooded that there will be no more room for new games to make money in the genre, which will cause developers to move to another genre in hopes to make money?
Comments
I'm going to take the optimistic approach and say the mmorpg market is going to grow by leaps and bounds for the next 10-20 years.
The only thing limiting the growth of mmorpgs is the availability of computers and the internet. As it stands many households in NA and Europe have internet but many do not. This is a huge untapped audience that will eventually get a comp/internet as the prices make them increasingly affordable. Combine that with society's greater dependence to the internet for many chores of our modern life and this further adds peoples chances of getting online.
Also, of the many people online atm, there are quite a lot who do not yet know the wonders of mmorpgs. The gaming industry as a whole is booming as playing games isn't just for kids anymore. MMORPGS can be argued to be at the pinnacle of this gaming trend as they are often the most complicated and expensive games to create when compared to their single game counterparts(or limited multiplayer).
Finally, in the global perspective, there is an astonishing amount of people who can not yet afford a computer or do not have access to the internet where they live. Places like India, South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, much of Asia in general etc. Heck, Id daresay most of the world. Literally billions of people. While computers may have been previously too expensive they are constantly getting cheaper and cheaper. A computer of 2001 is practically free by todays standards. So will a computer of 2005 be equally free in 2010. And with the recent improvements in internet technology I really do think that the overall market is going to boom in the next 10-20 years. For mmorpgs, there is no end in sight.
People often exclaim they played UO in 1997 as a symbol to their vet mmo status. Things like this will mean a lot more in 2020 when you tell your peers you were there playing the first, great mmorpg. (no offense against Meridian59!)
I think there's always room for improvement, innovation and specialization. While there may be a large number of MMOs out there right now, they clearly don't have a stranglehold on their subscribers. Most gamers are in a constant state of waiting for "something better." True, there's a valuable segment of gamers who stick with the same game through thick and thin, but I really believe that they are a minority (and I also believe they're first-time MMO players, which is something you can only be once).
I think the movie industry is the best comparison for the MMO industry. The blockbuster movies cost a fortune to make, so the businesspeople try to minimize risk by sticking to concepts with built-in audiences; you see quite a few sequels, quite a few movies that are updates of older films, and quite a few movies based on successful books or comics. The same things are true in the MMO world. However, there's still a thriving independent film industry, and the best films being released these days often come from that industry. The production value of independent films might not be as high as the major studio pictures, the people involved with the project might not have household names, and the budgets are definitely smaller, but the films are made intelligently and with a great deal of passion. There's no reason that can't hold true for MMOGs, too.
Where there's demand, there's an opportunity for success. I know my demand hasn't been completely sated by any MMO on the market now; I'm subscribed to a game I enjoy, but I really can't help but feel as if I'm just "settling" for the best thing that happens to be available. When a group of game designers comes along with something that specifically targets my interests, I'll be the first one to give their product a try. I sincerely doubt I'm alone in that.
Firstly, I would like to say thank you for everyone who has responded thus far. Every comment seemed to have a lot of thought behind it... and I can see that by the fact that EVERYONE had to edit their posts to make sure they were just right
I feel it takes the minds of many more than just one to get a full view of the topic at hand, and I see what you all mean now. Thanks for the insight, any more is still welcome.
hmm ur makin an mmo.good luck. Well on to ur topic. I have a uestion. Do you have a company that ur gonna mke this mmo with. because if you don't. i doubt ur gonna make any money on it to tell u the truth. The games that have flooded the market today re either made by a company, or free. If you want to get into the industry then make a free game first, then make a free and p2p play like runescape has. On to the market. I see it lasting, hmmm maybe 10 years if were lucky. With the rise in prices and our economy going downhill, the amount of people willing to pay for an MMO is going to lessen. With less players willing to pay 2 play, then you get less money. Also there will be moer companies trying to cash in the cash co of last year. More people with less money coming in means alot of companies will fail. I made a post about this actually on how the rise in video game prices will be teh fall of the video game industry. Check it out some time. yea... But back to the topic. also herit or w/e ur name is (srry forgot). Your not really right about saying that many omputers dont have internet. ALOT of people in the UK and the USA and NA in general have computers and are connected to the internet. Its become a nessicity these days. The reason that these people dont play games is because alot of them are not interested in video games, and are intimadated by the p2p prices and the lingo, so... unless the industry finds a way to reach out to those players, while being able to keep their hardcore and casual gamers, then all the more power to them. The industry wil last years, but right now, im lookin at, at the most, 10 years.
Am I ever wrong??
Well, my post will be fairly short compared to the other:
In my opinion theres always room for new games of the same genre. There will always be some1 inovating and making people stay true to that genre, be it more realistic gaming or a better gameplay overall.
There is, if im not mistaken, no game genre that has ever become extinct, theres always something innovative and fun that makes people stick to a certain genre of games, or go play new ones(well, if you exclude games like Mith and Syberia, those are rare, but the ones that exist are good!)
So, beeing the MMO genre fairly new, it will still survive for lots of years... Nothing gets used up quickly unless it isn't good.
Thats just what I think, and maybe its an error comparing MMO with all other genre, but I think one kind of games won't go against all we've seen.
Thx
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Played- Runescape, Conquer
Tested- EQ, RYL, Freeworld
The market is constantly growing and the release of Dungeons & Dragons Online, as well as Lord of the Rings Online (and, later, Age of Conan and Warhammer Online), being based on successful franchises, will bring another huge increase in the number of MMOG players, much like WoW did.
I agree that a lot of companies have started creating their own MMOGs just to get a piece of the market pie. Essentially, such initiatives lack originality and provide games with nothing new to offer. As competition increases, MMOGs that are not innovative and simply rely on previous ideas will prove financial failures.
For instance, it is doubtful if there's room for more medieval fantasy based MMOGs, the market is already flooded by them and they'd have to compete the "giants", like Everquest, WoW or Lineage 2. It's hard to compete there unless you really offer something innovative (tips: player-driven content, an actually dynamic, shifting world that changes based on player actions). On the other hand, fast paced, action packed, sci-fi MMOGs have lots of potential to attract customer interest and have good sales.
Currently playing:
* City of Heroes: Deggial, Assault Rifle/Devices Blaster. Server: Defiant.
* City of Villains: Snakeroot, Plant/Thorns Dominator. Server: Defiant.
Any of you ever think that one day mmorpg's will get so advanced and so good they would really over shadow real life. Maybe with advancements in the virtual reality technology why would people go out to the bar with friends when they could all go fight dragons, fight in a galactic war or just go hang out in a strip bar on tatoine all online. Reminds me of the book Player Piano if any of you read it.
Never ead the book, but i kno what u r sayin. Asummin that the gaming industry like i think it will, then this WILL happen. this will happen because, assuming that the technology is there, someone will want to cash in on the ability to give people the perfect lives (or close). IE if life got u down, pop-into virtual-quest and slay some dragons, seige the castle, or talk at the bar, etc.
Am I ever wrong??
well, the mmorpg market already had a period of flooding, where many many mmorpgs were startd, and died mid to mid-end development.
This was about a year ago, maybe a little more, there were companies like Wootsoft, or Codemaster, with games like Iritor and Dragon Empires.. UO2, and warhammer online.
There was a crap load of them, as well as a huge spike in MUD popularity and programs that allowed people to make their own mmorpgs (although these were crap, so they usually died in the same week they came up).
At that point a lot of companies said "ahh screw it, the market is flooded".
Go forward a year, no big jumps. Wow and EQ2 came out, WoW completly revived the mmorpg market and showed that it hasnt peeked, and showed us there were more people out there who wanted to play mmorpgs than anybody could have reasonably predicted.
I think WoW has provided the ammunition to break down some more barriers. I think you will see MMORPGS settle down a bit, as people go in WoW, and eventually leave and look at what else there is. Some of the new mmorpgs comming out this summer are gona have a big advantage becuase of the people in WoW who will have been playing for a long time, many will be looking for a new game around that time.
Mostly highschool students, and seasonal workers who have more spare time in the summer months.
after 6 or so years, I had to change it a little...
The MMO market is underated by most companies. The main reason is because of the incredible amount of work behind a MMO.
But let's face it, if a MMO can offer as good a solo as a non-MMO + anything else (PvE group, raid, PvP), it completely blew away competition. Luckily for non-MMOs, for some reasons MMOs builders are lame on the topic of soloing (WoW and CoH are less lame about solo, they aint good about it).
MMOs could be just the biggest gaming share on computer games, it just depend of the quality of the product they offer and the cost to acquire say product. Many customers are turn off by the lack of good solo option combine with heavy fees (compare to non-MMOs). If you either cut the fees down or improve what the customers want (solo among other stuff), you get a lion's share assuming the rest is right.
But I know those devs, they work on a system, they need to "improve" it and often they do it at the expense of solo, which is the worst mistake they can do. Yes folks are attracted to MMOs for the interactions with others players, but take that as an advantage, don't alienate you the player base by taking this as a restriction.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
Ever seen the anime .hack//SIGN? because thats exactly what theyre talking about in that anime. People get sucked in, it takes over your life... and eventually, weird things happen. Especially if you watch the OVA... but anyways...
Puzzle games are almost extinct... theyve more weaved their way into different genres, then actually kept around. Although Lumines is a good way to bring them back. Meteos for the DS... and theres always new tetris games floating around somewhere. They started the genre really though, so you know, they deserve to have a break
a) Yes, I have a company, in fact, its been established for almost 2 years (2 years in January)
b) Yes, I realize. The only way for a small company to make it into a big genre is to offer something for nothing. That is what I plan to do, but I plan to do it fairly, and not completely screw over the economy with an item shop like most games. I am actually thinking of starting up something like what RV is doing, or what PE did.
EDIT: PS - Im glad to see everyone has a good insight into this topic as this is OUR domain, and we need to know what we want, what we think of it, and how we see its future. Because we shape our games of tomorrow, so we need to really understand what our actions entail
Puzzle games are prospering extremely well. Sudoku games are everywhere and if you just backtrack 1 year, it was nowhere. Puzzles games are usually smaller for budget, thereby they are often integrated in bigger games (RPG and Adventures for example), but they are doing extremely well.
There are prolly more Sudoku players as we speak than their are WoW players. And Sudoku is merely a rising star for the puzzle games, many classics are still going strong. Of course the fact Sudoku is free to play give it an advantage for the player base size, it still has a bigger player base.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
The mmo market has already hit its cap. Its similiar to the game market crash of 1980. Back then there were so many clones of the same exact game that no one was making any money and it was costing more to develop a game then what it would actually earn. So many people got laid off and people simply weren't buying games; that is until there were more game features in existing games and there was more to do, when Nintendo hit the market.
The mmo market is currently encountering the same things. Many companies have published games in that were clones of EQ, Ragnarok Online, Anarchy Online, and Asheron's Call (Unfortunetly there weren't clones of Ultima Online), that the market was flooded with very similiar games, usually incomplete and featuring a level grind. So now alot of the player base is split between many different mmo's and a few companies are not making enough to support thier games, like FungWan Online and Asheron's Call 2.
Unlike the game crash in 1980 what we are seeing now is the consolidation of mmo's to specific companies, like Webzen, Gravity, Sony Online Entertainment, NC Soft, and Turbine. This is because since these games already have published games on the market, they are better capable to run the games and advertise. If you look at the companies I mentioned, half the games they are publishing or will publish were developed by a serperate company.
Another thing we are starting to see is a growth in what you can do with a game. Ordering Pizza, twitch based combat, end game content, and some other hard to explain things,
If I may interrupt,
The mmog market is very dependent on two themes by far, that of the fantasy and the sci-fi genre. This builds a defining competition in the industry since most games seem to maintain the same feel with a new visualized appearance. It's been said that the industry will decline because of lack of customers in the future, but in fact that statement seems further from the truth then one might believe. Originally mmog's were made from complete originality with no reference or trademark previously, but mmog's today are bringing well known trademark's to the table and consistently help bring new players to the mmog industry creating a larger potential customer base for every mmog that goes gold. In reality, the mmog market is expanding and will continue to do so for many years as more game companies realize the "profit" value in creating a successful mmog.
Unfortunately this weighs heavily on start up development studios trying to make their way through the door to the mmog industry. For instance, it takes several millions of dollars in investments to successfully complete a mmog. The cost's are enormous and start up companies normally can't find an investor willing to pitch that amount of money in a blender and hit start in hopes of a new and successful product to come from it. However, although the possiblities are slim, there is still chance. Several small studios have been able to pull this off, but it did not come with out a lot of work and passion from their creator. Innitally back in the old mmog days you could present an idea to an investor and receive a decent start up investment, but these it takes far more to even receive remote interest. Such as a Business Plan, Marketing Plan, Proforma, Prototype as well as proof of media and ancitipation for the possible product. My gaming studio is close to signing a big deal after 3 years of hard work and sweat. So, in essence it can be done but it takes a very passionate individual willing to fail and get up and do it again several times over.
The reason I decided to state this is that there were many non believers in us that created a destructive presence on our focus and I am telling you all that it doesn't add up to create doubts of someones dreams, because the noobs are the future of the mmog market, a select few of them will step up to one day become corporations and create innovation. It's just very difficult and places a lot of stress on the moral of the creator because of the "doubt". Do not doubt someone, encourage them to help create a better mmog market and innovative game design of the future. Also, do not doubt the mmog market, there are thousands of new ideas that are floating around that haven't been discovered and those ideas are crucial to the success of the industry. Prepare yourselves for more and more "known" themes such as Star Trek, Warhammer and others. Originality will be bleak in the successful bracket , but it will still be there as well.
People, we are getting ready to embark on an entire new generation of mmog games all with something new to offer. We are also embarking on 2 new consoles readily ready for mmog creation and cross platforms to the PC. This is where the market becomes larger then ever introducing new players to a new market that seems old and washed out to many of you, but will eventually become exciting and powerful for you all as well.
The mmog industry is rising, not declining and it will continue to do so just as table tops are still successfully created by major companies who are now all seeking the mmog market.
I think the MMOGing market is rapidly growing and will continue to do so for many years (decades) to come.
The klunkiness of MMOGs will eventually disappear, prolly around 2010-2013. It will be around this time frame that high quality, movie-like MMOGs will begin to emerge. By 2015 all MMOGs will be virtual realities, and their addictiveness will be potent.
I get a sense that many gamers long for HIGHER QUALITY MMOGs, I know I do. I'm not even a little bit interested in any of the Sci-Fi games in the so-called "Next Generation". BooHoo, to bad for me I guess. I guess I'll just have to wait another 6-7 years to get my MMOG fix!
Game developers are gunna have to face up to the fact that, sooner or later, high quality MMOG development will require very large development teams (200-500 people) and even larger budgets ($100 million +). Likewise, gamers are gunna have to realize that to play the latest MMOG is gunna cost $100. a month plus the cost of a superfast VDSL-2 internet connection.
Now, go out there and get a second job...I'll see you in the future!
i doubt games will get that expensive.....
at that price there will be abosultly no demand for that game. unless it is the most beatiful thing ever lol.
but i do agree with the prediction that there will be a bunch of companies attempting to get into the market-bringing their player base with it
and maybe overflooding the market in 20-35 years.
I find it amazing that by 2020 first world countries will be competing to get immigrants.
alot of your posts talked about how the fantasy genre of an mmo is getting old. i think that is why we have those newer sci fi mmos coming out like rf online... which i hope it does fantastic .. but i think the newer mmos are going to be fantasy and sci fi based but they are going to consist of different things... more crafting and more like a Sims type of game... just a wider variety i guess... just a real life atmosphere