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Elder Scrolls Online: Game On: ESP Edition #22 - Subscription Surrender?
BillMurphy
Former Managing EditorMember LegendaryPosts: 4,565
After a week off, the podcast returns, this time with Chris and a LIVE Dr. Klassi. This week we talk about Wildstar, The Elder Scrolls Online, and FFXIV going with the subscription business model. Are they dooming themselves already or is the subscription model on its return? Later in the show we talk about Blizzard’s interview retrospective on Mists of Pandaria and how the “Blizzard knows best” philosophy bit them yet again.
Click through the LINK to listen to the full thing! And don't forget to subscribe on iTunes!
Try to be excellent to everyone you meet. You never know what someone else has seen or endured.
Comments
There is very important corollary to this. From the consumer perspective why buy a box + sub when you can get the same product for FREE 6 months down the road? There is no logical reason to pay a sub at this point because the expectation has already been set that new titles eventually go F2P.
The only demographic paying a sub when you don't have to appeals to are certain elitists who:
#1 - Don't want to be in the same game with freeloaders
#2 - Pay to get a head before the F2P rush comes
Both of these groups though a minority in numbers, tend to be cash cows for spending. Both of these groups also tend to be shortsighted in their expectations and wants, as well have been shown to not really learn lessons of the recent past.
Why would consumers buy a new phone when it comes out, when they could wait and get it for much less. I'd say pride in general, and it happens all the time, even though it is not the most financially logical move for the consumer.
So when companies do this p2p -> f2p change they really get to please both parties. They get their elitist or head starters large initial investment money and lifetime subs, then they get to betray them and turn around and say hey f2p crowd, you were right we are your friends, come on in. The p2p crowd either stays because they have invested so much money and time with complaints or they leave but have already spent their initial money. It may be slightly immoral and turn off some people but the people turned off when it goes f2p would not have been their customers anyways if they had launched f2p, so their loss of them is unimportant. They were just basically exploited for short term financial gain.
I believe that is the business plan, and in general consumers tend to think when a company chooses their side of the debate that they are on 'your side' and affirm your beliefs. That is why people keep falling for the same tricks again and again. That is also why the companies get defended so strongly, because your beliefs on a subject and the company have become intertwined, so defending them is defending your beliefs. When all reality the company believes in nothing, and is on no ones side but their own.
175 million $ ... thats to be rumored TESOs development cost without marketing budget. after launch you need addional money for support, admistration, server and of course development for fast and further content updates every month. anyone with a lil clue on actual ARPPU numbers from F2P high quality games can tell you, that with F2P you can't even think about getting this initial money back within the first year. and with every month passing by the revenue will get smaller. P2P or B2P with a cashshop is a necessity to refinance the game in a proper time. sure, when sub-numbers will drop after 12 months - and TESO doesn't seams to have any content or features for casual gamers to stay longer with it than 3 months - they will go F2P to make another cashgrab. but at this time the game is refinanced.
some people, even mmorpg staff, talked about 'the return of P2P'. it was never gone! between the launch of star wars TOR and the release of TESO or wildstar next spring is there any high budget MMOG? neverwinter, you say? low budget game, only 35 million in development. archeage? was launched as P2P and went F2P but what you need to know about archeage is, that xlgames closely refinanced the developmentcost of 150 million $ before the official release with selling the publishing rights to china, japan, russia and eu/na (trion). from the publisher in china they got 50 million and with this number you can easily go F2P (freemium in this case) in such a big market.
every high budget mmog (over 100 million developmentcost) has to choose between P2P or B2P for release, everything else would be finiancial suicide. everquest next will be F2P, you say? indeed and it is a high budget mmog. but wait for the cashshop. if SOE continues its F2P politics you have to pay 30 $ for this content pack, 40 $ for that feature and 50 $ to implement your own house/castle. all of them not included in the monthly fee if you choose to be a premium member.
It's silly, imo. Especially knowing that other big MMOs are coming out with a subscription around you.
I truly hope that they are successful, but honestly they will all probably go F2P (or hopefully B2P) in the first year.
It comes down to 3 things:
1. Can the consumer justify paying 15 dollars when cheaper entertainment options exist?
2. Can the consumer justify paying 15 dollars when cheaper MMO options exist?
3. Can the consumer justify paying 15 dollars when there are other subscriptions MMOs competing for that Sub?
------------------------------------
1. The biggest thing? You...need...to...justify...the...subscription. Do you offer a better experience (AT LAUNCH) worth almost 2x the value of Netflix, 3x the value of PS+, or 3x the value of gamefly?
2. And I hate to bring up GW2 (I LOVE the game), but even if you hate it, can a company really ask you to pay 15 bucks a month when a B2P offers updates every 2 damn weeks with no necessary charge?
"As you read these words, a release is seven days or less away or has just happened within the last seven days those are now the only two states youll find the world of Tyria."...Guild Wars 2
"As you read these words, a release is seven days or less away or has just happened within the last seven days those are now the only two states youll find the world of Tyria."...Guild Wars 2
Cash shops and microtransactions of any kind have turned me away from gaming.
No way. What they are going to do is maximize box sales the first 2 months...before the game turns into a ghost town. Then they release FTP and start all of that stuff.
For people who purchased the game, they will compensate with a little bit of in-game cash shop money or some stupid "founder title".
This is the way it is.
THIS!
If the game is good, then I happily pay a monthly sub.
Just like how I am going to pay a monthly sub for FFXIV - A Realm Reborn.
It has become an awesome game and I am enjoying it. So I happily pay a sub for it.
Better than all the F2P crap out there that try to nickle and dime you at every corner in the game, shoving the Cash Shop constantly in Your face!
That is a lie, name me one single MMORPG released in the last 7 years that has given more free content than GW2 has...there isn't one. In fact you would have to go back to Asherons Call to find another game that gave continual free monthly content.
As for the Article, TESO is going to be SWTOR 2, its completely missing its core audience and is going to rely on trying to trick a decent amount of TES fans by hoping they don't realize what they are buying.
The graphics are outdated looking and from what beta testers are saying, the animations are horrible and the combat is limited. Many are even saying the story is not written very well and is not engaging like TES games. The subscription model is just a money grab much like Wildstar which is why they are double dipping with a cash shop, just having it ready for the F2P move.
"If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor