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The next perfect time to buy a new computer will be in 2015, or maybe 2016
First, let's talk about processors. Intel has already launched Haswell. Next year's Broadwell is not going to be an enthusiast part, and will likely only have low power versions available for desktops. Intel is rumored to launch a "Haswell refresh", but that basically means, the same parts that you can get today except stock clocked 100 MHz higher. Or 200 MHz if you're lucky.
Meanwhile, Sky Lake is due in 2015, as a new architecture on what should, by then, be a mature 14 nm process node. While it's far from clear that Sky Lake will be a huge advance, it is the next chance for a meaningful one in desktops. And it's not coming until 2015--and likely late 2015.
On the AMD side, Kaveri will launch early next year with Steamroller cores, and will be a big advance over Richland. However, that will only narrow the gap with Intel somewhat, and not close it. Perhaps a year later, AMD will launch a part with Excavator cores, which will be derived from Steamroller. Excavator should likewise narrow the gap with Intel further, but isn't likely to catch Intel.
You know when AMD might take the lead? With their later architecture that isn't derived from Bulldozer and successors at all. It's due in 2015, but will likely be pushed back in 2016. It might be awesome or it might flop, but it's AMD's next real shot at taking the lead from Intel. And there's no way that it comes before 2015. My guess is an early 2016 launch.
So how about video cards? Surely 20 nm will be a big deal, right? Well, maybe not. For starters, everything is delayed, as fabs are struggling to get there without FinFETs. Eventually it will mean lower power and smaller die size for a given level of performance, and we'll get some gains that way. But as new process nodes go, it won't be an especially bit deal.
You know what will be a big deal? The next one: 16 nm for TSMC, or 14 nm if anyone decides to use Global Foundries, Samsung, or IBM. At that point, everyone gets FinFETs. Furthermore, transistor counts will be high enough that it finally makes sense to put a ton of cache on package, and possibly on die, akin to Intel's Iris Pro or the Xbox One. Nvidia has already announced that they're doing this with Volta, the successor to Maxwell. AMD hasn't publicly announced it yet, but they're going to do the same thing.
In laptops, that will make it possible to ratchet up integrated graphis performance considerably without being severely starved for memory bandwidth. It will even make it possible to make proper tablets that can handle most games, albeit often at reduced settings.
And when is all of that coming? Well, TSMC's 16 nm process node will probably have products launch in 2015. Global Foundries says that 14 XM is coming in 2014, which probably means that products will start to launch sometime in 2016. Nvidia Volta products will probably show up in 2016, though I'd expect AMD to get some 16 nm cards to market in 2015.
Meanwhile, what about memory? The transition from DDR3 to DDR4 is coming next year. But DDR4 may be expensive at first. Come 2015, it will be the dominant memory standard, and will be abundant and cheap. By the time the CPUs and GPUs are ready, I'd expect to see 16 GB of DDR4 readily available for $50 or less.
How about SSDs? Well, they're mature now, but we'll see further declines in the cost of a given capacity. Further die shrinks of NAND flash may become impractical at some point, but I don't expect that to be a major obstacle within the next two years. We'll probably be able to get ~240 GB SSDs for around $100. Unlike so many other components, that will be a gradual improvement, not a sudden jump.
This might even be enough time for Microsoft to figure out that people hate the Windows 8 start screen and fix it.
But again, this isn't all going to be ready until 2015 at the earliest, and possibly 2016. If you're waiting for big advances, you could be waiting a long time. Which means that now is a decent time to buy a desktop or laptop. But if you like to time your hardware purchases to be right after the big advances rather than right before them, we've got about two or three years to wait.
Comments
And $2,000 - $3,000 to pay for all the new bleeding edge tech that may or may not burn up in six months.
Thanks for the info.! I haven't been following things very closely for years but I know my current machine isn't getting any younger, not really sure what I'm going to do. Probably just try and make it hold together as I'm not in any hurry, nothing I need more power for currently.
Nonsense. 2016's high end hardware will cost no more in 2016 than today's high end hardware does today. Same thing if you compare mid-range to mid-range.
If you're worried that the hardware will be unreliable, when is the last time that a CPU was prone to fry if you didn't do something stupid to it? As for the GPU with a bunch of cache, consider that you can buy it today in an Intel Iris Pro, and AMD will have years of experience with it in the Xbox One by then.
Great read thanks.
(Clearly the OP is seriously up to date on the tech, I used to be up on all the hardware then @ some point I wasn't!)
Anyway Ill hold off till 2016 and why not? Computers tech is advancing so much faster than game design.I'm running a 5770 (100$ card from 4 years ago) and a 6X phenom and i can play everything encountered thus far in high graphics, we have hit a plateau of hardware goodness, thank you Moores law.
This kind of goes back to the addage about upgrading computers:
If you need to upgrade because you ~need~ it (i.e. not just because you want that new computer smell, but because your software isn't running well enough), then there is no point in waiting for whatever is around the corner, because there is no telling how long "just around the corner" will be.
That, and no matter when you buy a new computer, that next new thing always comes out right away.
A sure sign that you are in an old, dying paradigm/mindset, is when you are scared of new ideas and new technology. Don't feel bad. The world is moving on without you, and you are welcome to yell "Get Off My Lawn!" all you want while it happens. You cannot, however, stop an idea whose time has come.
Thanks for the info!
I normally buy my computers with upgrades in mind. At this moment my system (mainboard is already 3+ years old same as 1st HDD and memory) is at the max of what it can be at the moment. Okay, I can upgrade the GTX460 SLI into something better, but as long as the SLI does it's work and I can play most games on (close to) maxed settings, I think I'm okay.
I was however already keeping an eye out for a new system in the near future. With the info you have given I think I'll wait a bit more and hope that my current system will hold an other 2-3 years (both in technical condition as in performance to the newer games) and I'd be able to get the (then) latest stuff...