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Why F2P will ultimately be a dead end
ChromeBallz
Member UncommonPosts: 342
A lot of people here are raging on about how F2P is the future and how it will define every mmo, or even game, out there.
However, a little critical thinking will prove that this is not the case.
Many people believe subscription MMO's will fail because "the business model is outdated". They cite numerous examples of games that failed to break in to this market, then cite numerous games that claim they did.
Lets break this down to the cold, hard facts. The ones that the people in charge of those games really care about.
Subscription
A plain subscription game costs $15 a month, or thereabouts. This gives both the developers and the publisher, some 3-6 months after release, a rough estimate of retention and thus budget going in to the future.
Subscribers are much more likely to be persistent customers aswell. While in most cases there is a significant drop-off after the first month of release, after 3 to 6 months the drop-off usually stabilizes or even stagnates, in some cases the subscriber base even grows to some degree. The point being that after 3 to 6 months, a subscriber MMO knows it's budget per month for roughly 12-18 months going forward. This is the reason subscriber MMO's can afford to plan far into the future (relatively speaking) with large content additions.
F2P
An F2P game is much, much more volatile. You cannot cite subscriber numbers, not in press releases nor to your shareholders. You can only cite accounts registered and total sales. This gives a very nervous atmosphere at the developers - They both have to deliver, but don't know the budget untill the month beforehand. This makes long term planning nearly impossible, which is shown through the amount and size of content released. Most F2P MMO's simply don't deliver any sizable new content after release because they devs can't be sure they can actually deliver on it.
Hybrid
Going by the paragraph above, most people will look at known F2P 'successes' and tell me i'm wrong. However, all those F2P games that actually do put out sizable new content (beyond cosmetic additions to a cash shop) also have subscription options. This is used as a metric for future content, just like a normal subscription MMO. While they do calculate in F2P revenue, it's usually viewed as a buffer, profit or both, rather than budgetted in into future releases.
The main point
All of the above comes to a head with something else: What does it cost players to play?
A pure subscription MMO is predictable. People can judge whether its worth keeping up. They feel the get their money's worth. A developer going for proper retention can also count on at least 6-12 months of revenue per customer and can plan ahead accordingly.
An F2P or hybrid MMO is subject to the fickle nature of people who, frankly, want stuff for free. They depend in large part on a very small core of players who spend a LOT more than they should to keep the game afloat. People seem to think F2P mmo's don't cost anything since they're not paying, but they're forgetting that there's a lot of people paying hundreds, of not thousands of dollars per month on that specific F2P game. There's a number floating around the net, where one particular MMO claims to generate $30 a month, on average, in revenue per player.
First, that MMO actually went bust about 4 months after the statement was made by the producer.
Second, that's $30 that a person spends on this MMO, where he could be spending $15 on a game that doesn't require micropurchases at all and the other $15 on their pension, a gift for their spouse or kids, a night out or even another MMO.
The Crux
And here we arrive at the conclusion: F2P MMO's still need that $15 a month to properly operate and have a proper future planned out. They might be free for some people, but they have to realise that others pay their sub, essentially. And the big one: F2P MMO's STILL compete for both money and time of other games.
In this way, F2P MMO's will either die off, or grow stagnant only to be overtaken by subscription MMO's again. This isn't because of normal people not paying, but the rich people getting either bored or tired of spending so much money when they could spend $50 less a month. The business model of F2P has an utter reliance of the relatively small amount of people who basically pay for everyone else, whereas a plain subscription model is much more predictable and valuable as far as budget and planning go.
I know this might be a bit vague, i'm not the best at explaining things, but i hope i got the point across.
And lastly: I'm sure people will go on and cite games that 'failed because of subscriptions'.
To date, not a single game failed because it had a subscription. Every game that failed did so because it simply sucked ass and instead of ignoring this fact, people should remove their heads from the aforementioned crevice and take a step back.
TOR is a shining example of this: It failed because it was a shameless ripoff of another game and managed to be a lot worse than that game aswell. The fact that it had a subscription had nothing to do with it. Many people still don't realize that F2P hasn't done much good to that game either by the way... It's still on life support.
Playing: WF
Played: WoW, GW2, L2, WAR, AoC, DnL (2005), GW, LotRO, EQ2, TOR, CoH (RIP), STO, TSW, TERA, EVE, ESO, BDO
Tried: EQ, UO, AO, EnB, TCoS, Fury, Ryzom, EU, DDO, TR, RF, CO, Aion, VG, DN, Vindictus, AA
Comments
Fixed it for you.
If other MMO's adopted the F2P model of Rift, Tera or Aion, they would be true F2P games. You get unrestricted game play and you don't mind paying money for any good fluff items. win/win for both parties.
*crickets chirping*
Nothing to see here, move along.
just another page of texts rant.
just another doom and gloom Swtor post very original.
Just one question where do you get your information?
Swtor failed? May want to check your facts.
Currently Swtor is making a profit? That doesn't sound like failing to me.
Currently the game is very active reports of a million players a month what mmo besides wow has more players then Swtor? Doesn't sound like failing to me.
The he truth is bad launch had issues but they have a great turn around releasing content every 6-8 weeks. Doesn't sound like failing to me.
Nice try though!
MapleStory.
You probably would have done better trying to pass off your opinions as semi-educated guess instead of trying to present it as fact, especially when you're addressing a crowd that actually does know what they are talking about.
SWTOR a failure? On life support? This is based on what... You don't like it, therefore it's doing poorly? If you knew how many subscribers and F2P players that game has your head would explode.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Might be a good idea to actually read what i posted before making assumptions of the opposite.
TOR is getting a hefty financial injection from EA to stay afloat. A million players doesn't mean a million *paying* players.
However, TOR was just an example.
I do however agree that good F2P games can still have their own market, but they won't conquer it all. Generalization is bad - If F2P games ever dominate the market and someone comes up with a good subscription game you'll get exactly the same hype, just the other way around.
Playing: WF
Played: WoW, GW2, L2, WAR, AoC, DnL (2005), GW, LotRO, EQ2, TOR, CoH (RIP), STO, TSW, TERA, EVE, ESO, BDO
Tried: EQ, UO, AO, EnB, TCoS, Fury, Ryzom, EU, DDO, TR, RF, CO, Aion, VG, DN, Vindictus, AA
Again where do you get your facts?
Swtor Tor making a profit your answer is EA is putting money in it to keep it afloat? Geez give up buddy! Sure that could be true in 2011!!!!
Welcome to 2014!!! Swtor is currently healthy and doing pretty good. Your doom and gloom with ZERO facts to back it up won't change that.
You need some sort of actual facts. Most of your post is based on how people feel, which isn't really something you can use to determine the economical feasibility of a monetization system.
For instance, would it surprise you to know that in most subscription games, on average players are paying more than their subscription amount either through additional services or additional subscriptions? Where does that fit in your theory?
How do you address subscription MMORPGs using price discrimination to capture more revenue, when they cannot price discriminate or can only price discriminate in one direction?
There are limitations in a subscription only monetization system in capturing all the possible revenue that is available for a game. This is why subscription games have had cash shops for a very long time. It allows them to capture revenue from the players that are willing and can afford to spend more money. The market has reached the point that in order to expand, publishers must extract money from the other end of the curve, where players either cannot afford or are unwilling to spend even the amount for a subscription each month. This is the only way they are going to increase revenue and expand the market.
I suppose it's a good thing that scaling an MMORPG up with free or bargain players doesn't substantially increase the costs of running the MMORPG so that money is very profitable for them. Even if MMORPGs worked like a standard production system where each additional unit produced and sold was more expensive to produce, and so earned less money F2P would still be the only way to capture additional revenue from the existing market in order to expand it.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
You might want to read every EA quarterly report for the last year if you want people to take you serious.
Seeing as I am sure you wont, let me paraphrase it for you; SWTOR has been one of EA's top 3 revenu generating games for the last year.
F2P fills a demand in the community and will continue to do so.
Subscriptions also fill a demand in the community and will continue to do so.
People who claim that "F2P is the future, subs are dead" simply don't understand the market very well.
Not sure about tera and aion but rift doesn't only sell fluff , it sells P2W items too like the second before top tier armor. So no thanks they can keep their cash shop and shove it.
Cheers,
BadOrb.
PSO 4 years , EQOA 4 months , PSU 7 years , SWTOR launch ongoing , PSO2 SEA launch ongoing , Destiny 360 launch ongoing.
"SWG was not fun. Let it go buddy." quote from iiNoSkillzii 10/18/13
The original propoganda pixie dust villain :[]
most subscription only mmorpgs that came out in the last few years did exactly this. Did they manage to retain players long enough to plan ahead accordingly? no. What did they do when people started realizing they werent getting their money's worth? they left. What happened to those companies? they went freemium.
In order for your statement to be true the game has to be way too good nowadays. Something that hasnt happened in many many years. There are a lot of good mmos out there but none are good enough to justify a subscription-only model when all they offer is an inferior alternative to WoW (in both quality and quantity) and ask for the same price.
Tera sells enchantment items for real money so you can upgrade your weapons without failing. I think its similar to neverwinter and other perfect world games. I lost the little interest i had in Tera after learning about that. It had the best model until they started selling that p2w crap.
I don't think a healthy sub game is unattainable but I do think it requires a focus that I'm not sure most professionally funded games can maintain. I think it would take a in-house funded game to accomplish and a dedication to staying on track post launch with new features. I also think that the days of pay expansions are coming to a end. Companies that charge subs are going to need to pick either giving all the content as part of the sub or if a hybrid model giving players a option to buy that content with credits that come from the sub. TSW is a example of a hybrid model game that I think does things right. FFXIV seems to be on the right track as a sub game but they still have a lot of work ahead of them and it's a open question if Wildstar and ESO can pull it off.
WoW and EVE both show there is still demand for subscriptions and I honestly don't think they bother MOST people near as much as the naysayers imply but you have to create a game that can hold onto those subscriptions for more than the first 30 days. My personal opinion is the best way to do that is to encourage the building of social networks early. Give players a reason to be in a guild and a reason to interact with their fellow players early and often. People with big friends list won't cancel a sub the first time a content patch misses it's promised delivery date. Early WoW really excelled at this, the newer versions not so much which might be telling as to why WoW's numbers have been slipping of late where EVE's are going up.
O right that doesn't sound good at all , I wouldn't bother either. I just hope SWTOR doesn't ever do that , I read that LotR has done something similar. I do realise SWTOR sold grade 7 ship parts , level 10 colour crystals , but they learn't from that and won't put anything else remotely close to P2W again.
It's a good job I don't play fantasy MMO's any more as I don't think there are any that don't sell P2W or almost maxed level characters , maybe the new final fantasy game doesn't but yeah how many others ?
Cheers,
BadOrb.
PSO 4 years , EQOA 4 months , PSU 7 years , SWTOR launch ongoing , PSO2 SEA launch ongoing , Destiny 360 launch ongoing.
"SWG was not fun. Let it go buddy." quote from iiNoSkillzii 10/18/13
The original propoganda pixie dust villain :[]
Some actual facts and data would be nice.
Let me throw this one out at you, core F2P gamers (so the same that would be likely to subscribe) spend an average of $60 per month on F2P games. So your logic is flawed. http://www.polygon.com/2013/2/8/3967410/kongregate-jim-greer-core-gamers-free-to-play-spend-more-money
My take? Subscription models rob their players by staggering content updates in such a way that any new expansion will squeeze you for 6-12 months until they can roll out their new content. F2P games have a distinct advantage that they could release everything and monetize themselves through things like dungeon unlocks, exp pots, etc., etc. They want the core gamers to power through content because then they'll put pressure on others to get there more quickly also, spending money all along the way. You'll see things like dungeon, instance, unlocks become more frequent as well.
I do prefer a hybrid model, though. However, you'll also begin to see these things like instance unlocks available to subscribers as they try to further monetize their existing subscribers.
Truth.
Crazkanuk
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Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
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How can you know it's top 3 when they don't list it in their Q reports ? The fact that it was missing from the last one was the focus of the last witch hunt the haters held.
Not agreeing with the OP. I actually laughed when I saw how much of his post was just opinion but if we're going to ask for facts...
I've seen the paid platform fail in numerous industries.
Let me give you a scenario.
You're a player who's in the market to play a new (or a new to you) MMO. What do you do? Well, you go looking. And what do you see? You see 5 MMOs that seem like your kind of thing:
1. Free
2. Free
3. Free
4. Free
5. Paid
One is paid, the others are free; all of them are of the same quality; the only difference being that to experience the full extent of the free ones, you have to finally make a purchase.
Which do you choose?
The majority of people will choose 1 to 4, and why? Because they get a chance to play a game without the risk of losing their money. Only if they enjoy the game, do they have to shell out - and even then, it usually often won't be necessary.
And the thing is . . . what the majority of consumers want, they get. Basic supply and demand theory.
Is the paid model on the way out? I'm surprised someone hasn't placed a gravestone over it already.
A great list of free games (mostly MMORPGs): http://www.mytop10games.com/
He's wrong anyway. Tera sells extensive alkahest which gives a higher % chance of success. It's the only kind I ever use...and I've never paid real money for any of it. Players sell it on the AH all the time, it's easy to get with in game gold.....yet some how...that's still PAY to win
These types of complaints only show just how shallow this whole thing really is. It's not about what the game is doing, it's that they are a p2p lobbyist and it's their "job" to bash f2p.
I have heard this argument over and over again about these kinds of things and I don't by it. Do you think the company gives a rats ass if you buy that item with real money or if someone else does and sells it to you for in game gold? It's probably even better for them this way since they get a transaction tax out of the deal.
And dismissing anyone who points out the flaws in F2P doesn't make them a lobbyist. F2P has flaws that makes it in many cases a much worst deal for the average consumer than Sub's. It's great for the companies feeding off impulse buying and near addiction level gambling disorders to rack in huge profits but don't ever believe they are doing these things to make the games more accessible to their fan base. A few might be but the industry at a whole is contemptible with most of their tactics.
That's an interesting point of view , hmm , maybe i'm just old fashioned and think earning my items is how I like to progress. Mind you , you have a point about expacs and the next tier of armor and weapons. I'm just used to buying the next instalment within a subb game. I do think WOW's expacs are a little expensive when they release though. You pay for the product and the privalidge to play it. I do see your point though.
You could also say the freemium model also is probably worse , you can subb on the hamster wheel of life and also then get to pay more for the cash shop items. That makes that model sound very unfair in that way.
Personally I prefer subscription only games ( again old fahsioned ) , but if a game has to have a cash shop I would rather they didn't sell P2W styled shortcuts , the odd xp boost or power boost is acceptable to a certain degree.
One final point is that all these games with hybrid or pure f2p games have totally carp economies and we are all part of that shambles. I will explain even if like me you never buy a cash shop item with real money , If I ever then buy anything from the in game shop in this case the GTN then at some point in that items life it has been diluted by real money pouring into said game via a cash shop. So even though it becomes a lot fairer for people who want to purchase items with in game coins rather than real money , it ends up running the economy of the game , which is not the point of MMORPG's at all , never was and never will be . I just have to accept that for now.
BTW I replied to your Q's in the other SWTOR thread
Cheers,
BadOrb.
PSO 4 years , EQOA 4 months , PSU 7 years , SWTOR launch ongoing , PSO2 SEA launch ongoing , Destiny 360 launch ongoing.
"SWG was not fun. Let it go buddy." quote from iiNoSkillzii 10/18/13
The original propoganda pixie dust villain :[]
wow spoken like someone who hasen't even taken 1 business class.
Yes F2P is the future it brings in a large number of players who might not try the game otherwise. This trial of sorts in many cases such as SWTOR convinces them to buy a subscription or make purchases from the cash shop.
BTW SWTOR failed? This is news to the rest of the world as it sits at the 2nd largest western MMO and making more money now then when it had over a million subs.
So how much money does SWTOR need to make for it not to be on life support?
If not a single MMO has failed because it had a subscription then how come when MMOs go F2P they tend to double their income and they grow?
Yeah if the only way of buying the higher % item is via the cash shop to begin with and no way of obtaining it within the actual game then yes it's P2W and read my post above this one for clarification on how the way he buys them off the AH ruins the economy.
Having said all that I'm not a P2P lobbist , I prefer P2P but accept hybrid models and even a F2P model if it's a great game. Still if P2W items appear in a game I play I will leave without hesitation , but that's just me. It seems most games won't have me in them. Especially since I'm part of a niche market SCI-FI MMO and no P2W , I'm hard to please
.
O and the grade 7 ship parts are available in-game , came out the same day which erked people though. Also the level 10 colour crystals are very close to the P2W mark , but you can get those stats from level 50 crystals , I know it was a close one , still seems a little dodgy that one but if they stop at those things and nothing else I can cope playing the game still.
Cheers,
BadOrb.
PSO 4 years , EQOA 4 months , PSU 7 years , SWTOR launch ongoing , PSO2 SEA launch ongoing , Destiny 360 launch ongoing.
"SWG was not fun. Let it go buddy." quote from iiNoSkillzii 10/18/13
The original propoganda pixie dust villain :[]
All die, so die well.