We'll know within the first 12 months whether or not it will happen. I fully expect them to stat bleeding subs around the 3 month mark. Not every game is for every person. Some will try it and love it. Some, not so much. If they can stop the bleeding and maintain at steady 750,000 + subs for a few months, then as word gets around, start to grow the game slightly, I think the sub model will have legs and stick around. However, if they start bleeding subs and can't stop because high end PvP is lacking and high end PvE isn't engaging, well that's another story.
If you look at games that have failed to maintain subs, they have a few things in common. First, most of them aren't very good. Yes, there are some that are. But really, if they were good enough, the market would've been there. Second, many of them were too similar to games that came before. You don't need earth shattering, mind bending innovation to succeed in the MMO space. But, as EVE has shown, if you can carve out your own niche, and be extremely loyal and responsive to the fans of that niche, you can be very successful.
Can ZeniMax create that niche for themselves? It certainly seems like they are trying too with the 3 faction PVP, in depth character creation, in depth character skill progression, and storytelling. Will ESO be too much Single Player RPG for most MMOers? Will it be too much MMO for TES players? Or, can ZeniMax strike the balance they are searching for?
As an MMOer and a TES fan, I must say, I was skeptical ZeniMax could pull it off. However, I have been pleasantly surprised by the beta. Hopefully, the game will do well. It will be good for a genre which has had so many disappointments, that some of it's fans have become jaded to the point, they now hope games will fail.
Judging by this thread and many others like it, I think that ESO has a bright future. You know your P2P game has a problem when nobody gives a F if it goes F2P. With the amount of people concerned about ESO going F2P, it indicates that there is a lot of interest in the game. Some of those people, after being hooked into the beta, will just give in and buy it. The others will be there if the game ever reaches the point where it financially needs to go F2P.
For example, I could care less of Wildstar goes completely F2P. I am not playing it regardless. The same goes for a number of other games.
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Somebody, somewhere has better skills as you have, more experience as you have, is smarter than you, has more friends as you do and can stay online longer. Just pray he's not out to get you.
I sure as shit hope it doesnt. I want it very much to stay buy the game and sub. And also, the game isnt having a cash shop and IF, key word IF they do, it would be nothing but appearance stuff as theyve already said.
For starters a price and then a sub will keep out the retards that plague games big time. Higher quality content, higher quantity content for a price. Its something that has been the norm for years. Why all of a sudden has the MMO community become so damn cheap they bitch and complain about a sub? Jesus christ people get a fucking job.
After playing it through this weekend, I think it will be F2P by it's second year. The game didn't feel special to me, but it didn't feel like a total dud either.
No ESO will have a huge fan base like WoW. And if expansion will be good people will stick to it for long time!! Might be big thing if fans will support !
The question needs clarification as there are two parts to it: the initial payment and the continuing payment.
Initial payment:
Most companies charge for their products; whether it is $60 or 99 cents. There are however some Free-to-Buy games; ones you can start playing for nothing. Different business strategies - "price points", "consumer resistance" even "luxury pricing".
Do I think ESO will go Free-to-Buy (as STWOR did for example): NO. I believe it will stay B2P like e.g. TSW. Might get cheaper over time but I don't believe it will become free-to-buy.
Continuing Payment:
Do I believe that ESO will adopt a "micro-transaction" style approach - NO. don't believe it will work either. It isn't designed around the concept.
Do I believe that if ESO launches with a sub it will carry on with a sub? YES probably.
Do I believe that ESO will "adopt" a DLC model like TSW. If it launches - as seems to be the case - with a sub not likely but possible. Post launch there are problems of what to do with the people who did sub. And most of the lost sales will stay lost; TSW has not really recovered.
Do I believe it will continue with a sub: sadly YES.
Having a sub however impacts the price point. And generates huge customer resistance. There is also no longer any justification for having one. When they started networks, database software, techs all made for huge costs and it was accepted. And new content was not included. Look at the justifications usually given out:
bug fixes - no, zero tolerance; if a game has bugs you expect them to be fixed sub or not
customer support - "all" companies provide this (good or bad!);
network costs - still some justification but the cost is tiny otherwise e.g. GW1 would never have been possible;
keep the riff-raff out; classic "luxury pricing" comment, but luxury pricing implies smaller markets ....
future content / keep the devs working. Why? You don't buy a TV for $500 and then keep paying $125 a month so that the designers can come up with next years design. Destiny launches later this year without a sub. Destiny is planning on 10 years of content - no sub and yet it is still going to pay its devs. How can this be?
WoW has lots of subscribers. Indeed but it also loses lots every month and lots of people return. ESO won't have returning subscribers for a long time.
There is another - business - reason:
to smooth out revenue flow and as there is nothing set in stone as to what the sub is for it is very flexible
Will ESO sell. Absolutely. Tens of millions? Unlikely. If it only gets e.g. 2.4M sales like SWTOR .... will it ever fulfil its potential? Does anyone doubt that with a sub we are looking at initial sales; medium retention; decline down to a core playerbase that gradually dwindles?
So will the sub revenue make up for lost sales ... and potential DLC sales?
When Titanfall launches later this month it will use the same model that EA have used with BF3 and BF4. So Respawn (and maybe Microsoft) must be happy with it.
The BF model is B2P + "optional subscription package". Those who take out the package get a fixed number of xpacs. Very clear; very clean cut. Very simple. Those that don't have to buy as DLC. There is still an element of trust required on the part of the subscribers but a clear commitment. And note all these games have networks but no sub.
Activision's attempt at a subscription service for CoD is interesting. They offered "fuzzy" service extras, nothing definitive; the service failed. And when Desiny launches later this year it won't have a sub. 10 years of expansion packs are planned but no sub.
Moral: I suggest that consumers don't have a problem paying for something as long as they know what they are getting and believe that the price they are paying is reasonable. They are happy with cash on delivery but some would prefer the "luxury price" that a sub represents to "keep out" the undesirables. Never understood it myself but it is there.
Like I said if Zenimax go with a sub I think they will stay with a sub. And the game's potential, imo, will be unfulfilled.
ESO will be an ideal DLC platform. And they can sell legendary packages in later years. And if they need to hold back some dungeons from the core game fine. Just make sure they can launch some solid DLC in the first year say.
This is probably the most well reasoned, intelligent post in the thread. Nice post.
ESO is not going to go FTP. ESO is next level, its not comparable to previous MMORPGs. Think more along the lines of World of Warcraft than of Rift or Tera.
Originally posted by Gilllean No ESO will have a huge fan base like WoW. And if expansion will be good people will stick to it for long time!! Might be big thing if fans will support !
huge fan base like : Star wars? or Lord of the rings?
ESO will be FTP (sadly) zenimax will milk the fans , and then go ftp , its have been the plan the whole time im afraid.
Originally posted by Triddle ESO is not going to go FTP. ESO is next level, its not comparable to previous MMORPGs. Think more along the lines of World of Warcraft than of Rift or Tera.
I anticipate ESO being my favorite MMORPG, ever, but you need to put down the pipe. WoW's arrival in the market was the equivalent of the Yankees entering a little league tournament. ESO faces a hell of a lot stiffer competition, in a market that is no longer seeing much overall growth. Expecting WoW level success from any new MMO, no matter how good, is just nuts.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory, my chains are broken. The Force shall free me.
It's fundimentally unsustainable as a box price game with a subs fee and a cash shop (let alone the pre-order content lock-out paywall).
TESO will go F2P at some point or will struggle to survive with a tiny subs base, this is inevitable. The modern MMORPG market is saturated to breaking point, on release they will get an incredible amount of players which will dwindle to almost nothing within 6 months once players have consumed all the content like locusts and moved on to the next feast.
This is the fundimental flaw of linear, themepark MMO's, once the content is gone all that is left is the end game and if the PvP/Raiding is not utterly amazing, the game fails.
People must realise this is the model, cash-in as much as possible at launch, pre-orders, cash-shop, subs fee's because once the rollercoaster grinds to a halt, the ride is over and everyone moves onto the next one.
Bollocks, there have been several games over the years that have proven that subscription fees properly applied to ongoing game development, not only allow a company to create and release new content on a regular basis. They also form a solid foundation for continuous profit.
While I do agree that the modern MMO market is saturated. It is primarily saturated with free to pay crap, which is disappearing at a rapid rate as the flaws in the business model become more and more apparent to western MMO players.
Which in turn leaves room for quality MMO's utilizing the traditional western payment model plenty of room to thrive and grow. Provided that they can shake off the lingering effects of the free to pay aberration, such as thinking that anything on top of a subscription fee is acceptable.
I believe the game will go F2P. ESO, while a great game seems more like an online RPG than an MMO. It doesn't do anything that any other MMO doesn't do better. What it does do is let you play ES with friends. I don't think that's enough to warrant 15$ a month for long.
Cas
Really? It's PvP is pretty much better than anything out there and it's crafting system is one of the best as well. So to say "It doesn't do anything that any other MMO doesn't do better" gives me the impression you haven't played it or you have some reason for an unwarranted prejudice comment like that.
Yeah... I don't think I could play ESO if it was Free to Play, when I play a game, I look for the sub model first.
AW, who am I kidding, I would still play it, and I would throw 75 bucks a month at it on top of it. But I hope it never comes to that with ESO, I rather like the 4-6 week content update they are going with.
But if content runs dry in the game to the degree that updates are only in expansions once a year or through the cash shop, you can bet your ass I'll be looking for a new game.
I just cancelled my sub on SWTOR which I held for quite awhile and one thing I learned while playing that game is that the same people who complain about subs are also the same people who whine about a F2P SWTOR being too restrictive. It seems to me that a lot of people are just looking for a MMO handout.
Whether ESO goes F2P or not is entirely determined how Zenimax handles it. I played the beta now the last 3 times and after the second beta I became hooked and will gladly pay a sub to continue playing. However if they get lazy in regards to new content and/or decide to open a cash shop like SWTOR did I will definitely consider going to get my fix elsewhere.
I miss the old days before WoW when MMOs didn't try to cater their games to everyone. You either liked it or you didn't and you moved on to other greener MMO pastures if that was the case.
I just cancelled my sub on SWTOR which I held for quite awhile and one thing I learned while playing that game is that the same people who complain about subs are also the same people who whine about a F2P SWTOR being too restrictive. It seems to me that a lot of people are just looking for a MMO handout.
Whether ESO goes F2P or not is entirely determined how Zenimax handles it. I played the beta now the last 3 times and after the second beta I became hooked and will gladly pay a sub to continue playing. However if they get lazy in regards to new content and/or decide to open a cash shop like SWTOR did I will definitely consider going to get my fix elsewhere.
I miss the old days before WoW when MMOs didn't try to cater their games to everyone. You either liked it or you didn't and you moved on to other greener MMO pastures if that was the case.
while I tend to agree with you on the mmo handout for free to play I really think using SWTOR as a comparison is not very fair. That game is the most restrictive of the free to play games. While most people whom spend money on free to play games that do not like a sub fee are buying mounts and bag space, star wars is charging those customers for action bars sprint and basic functional abilities. This game kinda sets itself up for the hate it gets here because majority of the game is based around the cash shop now unless you want to run a 15 dollar a month fee. I personally do not think SWTOR is worth the 15 dollars a month for various reasons but im sure some do think so. But to players having to unlock all this stuff its a turn off and a deterant to playing or trying out new patches.
On ESO going free I highly doubt it unless they drop the ball, at least for a couple of years. As long as people do not leave in droves like SWTOR at launch I highly doubt you are going to see this game go free to play anytime soon. I personally think the game is worth the 15 dollar a month fee so I will be supporting it regardless , if it goes free to play or not if Im still enjoying the game when the time comes if it ever does.
Originally posted by cronius77 Originally posted by KrampusI just cancelled my sub on SWTOR which I held for quite awhile and one thing I learned while playing that game is that the same people who complain about subs are also the same people who whine about a F2P SWTOR being too restrictive. It seems to me that a lot of people are just looking for a MMO handout.Whether ESO goes F2P or not is entirely determined how Zenimax handles it. I played the beta now the last 3 times and after the second beta I became hooked and will gladly pay a sub to continue playing. However if they get lazy in regards to new content and/or decide to open a cash shop like SWTOR did I will definitely consider going to get my fix elsewhere.I miss the old days before WoW when MMOs didn't try to cater their games to everyone. You either liked it or you didn't and you moved on to other greener MMO pastures if that was the case.
while I tend to agree with you on the mmo handout for free to play I really think using SWTOR as a comparison is not very fair. That game is the most restrictive of the free to play games. While most people whom spend money on free to play games that do not like a sub fee are buying mounts and bag space, star wars is charging those customers for action bars sprint and basic functional abilities. This game kinda sets itself up for the hate it gets here because majority of the game is based around the cash shop now unless you want to run a 15 dollar a month fee. I personally do not think SWTOR is worth the 15 dollars a month for various reasons but im sure some do think so. But to players having to unlock all this stuff its a turn off and a deterant to playing or trying out new patches.
On ESO going free I highly doubt it unless they drop the ball, at least for a couple of years. As long as people do not leave in droves like SWTOR at launch I highly doubt you are going to see this game go free to play anytime soon. I personally think the game is worth the 15 dollar a month fee so I will be supporting it regardless , if it goes free to play or not if Im still enjoying the game when the time comes if it ever does.
I don't think people leaving in droves will have an impact. at least not like other games. the last 2 AAA mmo's sold aprox. 3mil copies. they were pc only. if ESO sells 3mil pc copies it sets itself up nicely with console sales. and even if people do leave in droves it wont have as much of an impact as other games. because they have more players to begin with. when a AAA mmo goes f2p it is widely considered a failure by most mmo fans. I think them not going f2p stands to benefit them more in the long run. otherwise the failure stigma may be too much to overcome.
Any MMO with a decent PvP / RvR / AvA game can not afford to go f2p with all the attached cash shops and other rubbish. Not sure if b2p would provide the income stream necessary to keep the service up and extend it.
So I sincerely hope they will hold their nerve and stay with a subscription model.
What really pisses me off however are those loudmouths who spout rubbish against ESO with the hope that they might get a free ride on the back of other gamers in a f2p model, grow up already...
But I can also see that the sub model is practically dead.
Yes, this game will go F2P and I would expect the transition within 12-18 months from launch. The F2P / cash shop model is a licence to print money and can you imagine how many different consumables, weapons, armor, mounts etc that they can monetize in a PvP focused game like ESO...
I am sure the dollar signs have been flashing for years and F2P has always been part of the roadmap....
I am hoping it stays as a sub model but if for some reason they do go f2p I hope they follow the SWTOR model of making the freeloaders second class citizens.
In fact what I would like to see is a freeloader only class made lets call it serf with heavy restrictions on equipment as well as a forced level cap of at least 2 levels lower than the nearest paying citizen. As well as a set of special emotes useable by paying subscribers targeted at the new serf class...
<ahhh one can dream>
Seriously, though F2P is not a viable long term option. Either a game is good and worth subscription or its bad and not. F2P only dilutes the value.
I believe the game will go F2P. ESO, while a great game seems more like an online RPG than an MMO. It doesn't do anything that any other MMO doesn't do better. What it does do is let you play ES with friends. I don't think that's enough to warrant 15$ a month for long.
Cas
hmm and I felt it does things better then any other MMO at the moment. Couldn't name a game from my personal view, that is far better in any point
Comments
We'll know within the first 12 months whether or not it will happen. I fully expect them to stat bleeding subs around the 3 month mark. Not every game is for every person. Some will try it and love it. Some, not so much. If they can stop the bleeding and maintain at steady 750,000 + subs for a few months, then as word gets around, start to grow the game slightly, I think the sub model will have legs and stick around. However, if they start bleeding subs and can't stop because high end PvP is lacking and high end PvE isn't engaging, well that's another story.
If you look at games that have failed to maintain subs, they have a few things in common. First, most of them aren't very good. Yes, there are some that are. But really, if they were good enough, the market would've been there. Second, many of them were too similar to games that came before. You don't need earth shattering, mind bending innovation to succeed in the MMO space. But, as EVE has shown, if you can carve out your own niche, and be extremely loyal and responsive to the fans of that niche, you can be very successful.
Can ZeniMax create that niche for themselves? It certainly seems like they are trying too with the 3 faction PVP, in depth character creation, in depth character skill progression, and storytelling. Will ESO be too much Single Player RPG for most MMOers? Will it be too much MMO for TES players? Or, can ZeniMax strike the balance they are searching for?
As an MMOer and a TES fan, I must say, I was skeptical ZeniMax could pull it off. However, I have been pleasantly surprised by the beta. Hopefully, the game will do well. It will be good for a genre which has had so many disappointments, that some of it's fans have become jaded to the point, they now hope games will fail.
Judging by this thread and many others like it, I think that ESO has a bright future. You know your P2P game has a problem when nobody gives a F if it goes F2P. With the amount of people concerned about ESO going F2P, it indicates that there is a lot of interest in the game. Some of those people, after being hooked into the beta, will just give in and buy it. The others will be there if the game ever reaches the point where it financially needs to go F2P.
For example, I could care less of Wildstar goes completely F2P. I am not playing it regardless. The same goes for a number of other games.
Somebody, somewhere has better skills as you have, more experience as you have, is smarter than you, has more friends as you do and can stay online longer. Just pray he's not out to get you.
I sure as shit hope it doesnt. I want it very much to stay buy the game and sub. And also, the game isnt having a cash shop and IF, key word IF they do, it would be nothing but appearance stuff as theyve already said.
For starters a price and then a sub will keep out the retards that plague games big time. Higher quality content, higher quantity content for a price. Its something that has been the norm for years. Why all of a sudden has the MMO community become so damn cheap they bitch and complain about a sub? Jesus christ people get a fucking job.
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This is probably the most well reasoned, intelligent post in the thread. Nice post.
huge fan base like : Star wars? or Lord of the rings?
ESO will be FTP (sadly) zenimax will milk the fans , and then go ftp , its have been the plan the whole time im afraid.
The preorder was a hint.
I anticipate ESO being my favorite MMORPG, ever, but you need to put down the pipe. WoW's arrival in the market was the equivalent of the Yankees entering a little league tournament. ESO faces a hell of a lot stiffer competition, in a market that is no longer seeing much overall growth. Expecting WoW level success from any new MMO, no matter how good, is just nuts.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
Bollocks, there have been several games over the years that have proven that subscription fees properly applied to ongoing game development, not only allow a company to create and release new content on a regular basis. They also form a solid foundation for continuous profit.
While I do agree that the modern MMO market is saturated. It is primarily saturated with free to pay crap, which is disappearing at a rapid rate as the flaws in the business model become more and more apparent to western MMO players.
Which in turn leaves room for quality MMO's utilizing the traditional western payment model plenty of room to thrive and grow. Provided that they can shake off the lingering effects of the free to pay aberration, such as thinking that anything on top of a subscription fee is acceptable.
Really? It's PvP is pretty much better than anything out there and it's crafting system is one of the best as well. So to say "It doesn't do anything that any other MMO doesn't do better" gives me the impression you haven't played it or you have some reason for an unwarranted prejudice comment like that.
Zenimax has the benefit of console sales. it is less likely compared to other mmo's to go f2p or b2p.
Yeah... I don't think I could play ESO if it was Free to Play, when I play a game, I look for the sub model first.
AW, who am I kidding, I would still play it, and I would throw 75 bucks a month at it on top of it. But I hope it never comes to that with ESO, I rather like the 4-6 week content update they are going with.
But if content runs dry in the game to the degree that updates are only in expansions once a year or through the cash shop, you can bet your ass I'll be looking for a new game.
I just cancelled my sub on SWTOR which I held for quite awhile and one thing I learned while playing that game is that the same people who complain about subs are also the same people who whine about a F2P SWTOR being too restrictive. It seems to me that a lot of people are just looking for a MMO handout.
Whether ESO goes F2P or not is entirely determined how Zenimax handles it. I played the beta now the last 3 times and after the second beta I became hooked and will gladly pay a sub to continue playing. However if they get lazy in regards to new content and/or decide to open a cash shop like SWTOR did I will definitely consider going to get my fix elsewhere.
I miss the old days before WoW when MMOs didn't try to cater their games to everyone. You either liked it or you didn't and you moved on to other greener MMO pastures if that was the case.
while I tend to agree with you on the mmo handout for free to play I really think using SWTOR as a comparison is not very fair. That game is the most restrictive of the free to play games. While most people whom spend money on free to play games that do not like a sub fee are buying mounts and bag space, star wars is charging those customers for action bars sprint and basic functional abilities. This game kinda sets itself up for the hate it gets here because majority of the game is based around the cash shop now unless you want to run a 15 dollar a month fee. I personally do not think SWTOR is worth the 15 dollars a month for various reasons but im sure some do think so. But to players having to unlock all this stuff its a turn off and a deterant to playing or trying out new patches.
On ESO going free I highly doubt it unless they drop the ball, at least for a couple of years. As long as people do not leave in droves like SWTOR at launch I highly doubt you are going to see this game go free to play anytime soon. I personally think the game is worth the 15 dollar a month fee so I will be supporting it regardless , if it goes free to play or not if Im still enjoying the game when the time comes if it ever does.
On ESO going free I highly doubt it unless they drop the ball, at least for a couple of years. As long as people do not leave in droves like SWTOR at launch I highly doubt you are going to see this game go free to play anytime soon. I personally think the game is worth the 15 dollar a month fee so I will be supporting it regardless , if it goes free to play or not if Im still enjoying the game when the time comes if it ever does.
I don't think people leaving in droves will have an impact. at least not like other games. the last 2 AAA mmo's sold aprox. 3mil copies. they were pc only. if ESO sells 3mil pc copies it sets itself up nicely with console sales. and even if people do leave in droves it wont have as much of an impact as other games. because they have more players to begin with. when a AAA mmo goes f2p it is widely considered a failure by most mmo fans. I think them not going f2p stands to benefit them more in the long run. otherwise the failure stigma may be too much to overcome.
Any MMO with a decent PvP / RvR / AvA game can not afford to go f2p with all the attached cash shops and other rubbish. Not sure if b2p would provide the income stream necessary to keep the service up and extend it.
So I sincerely hope they will hold their nerve and stay with a subscription model.
What really pisses me off however are those loudmouths who spout rubbish against ESO with the hope that they might get a free ride on the back of other gamers in a f2p model, grow up already...
If you look at the historical data, then yes.
It will go B2P/F2P.
I actually prefer the sub model personally.
But I can also see that the sub model is practically dead.
Yes, this game will go F2P and I would expect the transition within 12-18 months from launch. The F2P / cash shop model is a licence to print money and can you imagine how many different consumables, weapons, armor, mounts etc that they can monetize in a PvP focused game like ESO...
I am sure the dollar signs have been flashing for years and F2P has always been part of the roadmap....
I am hoping it stays as a sub model but if for some reason they do go f2p I hope they follow the SWTOR model of making the freeloaders second class citizens.
In fact what I would like to see is a freeloader only class made lets call it serf with heavy restrictions on equipment as well as a forced level cap of at least 2 levels lower than the nearest paying citizen. As well as a set of special emotes useable by paying subscribers targeted at the new serf class...
<ahhh one can dream>
Seriously, though F2P is not a viable long term option. Either a game is good and worth subscription or its bad and not. F2P only dilutes the value.
From what i ve seen on Beta so far Zenimax should pay the players to play this @!$@#$.
Edit: This game works like a TIME MACHINE ~~~ Once you install it and *poof* your back on 1999 :P
hmm and I felt it does things better then any other MMO at the moment. Couldn't name a game from my personal view, that is far better in any point