Sadly Sigil does games right, and they refuse to toss the baby out of the carriage and expect it to book it into high gear. But instead craddle and love that baby =p until it has out grown the carriage (betas) and come to our homes =p
But yeah probally nearing summer months i would say is best bet.
Personally I think Vanguard will be released before WoW's expansion comes out and before AoC goes live.. IMO,those two games are the only real threat to Vanguard as to which game will attract most people..
If WoW comes out with their expansion before Vanguard is released,well that means less people will leave WoW for Vanguard.. If AoC goes live before Vanguard is released,the same will probably happen.. If both WoW expansion and AoC is released before Vanguard goes live,then good luck with selling the product.
Personally I've been follosing Vanguard since late 2003.. Back then I couldn't wait for Vanguard to come out.. Since then and until a few days ago I looked heavily into AoC,The Chronicle,RF Online,DnL,and what WoW's expansion will bring to the table.. With so many good sounding MMO's coming out this year,Sigil better hope to release Vanguard beforeall the other MMO's go live..
As a businessman and Marketer, Vanguard has been in development and one of the highly anticipated MMO's to come out the last couple years.. But If other MMO's release their game earlier than Vanguard,people will likely quit what their playing now,try them out,and If AoC,The Chronicle,DnL,WoW's expansion etc are what they've been waiting for,Vanguard will lose alot of its playerbase before the game is even released...
Look what WoW and EQ2 both did.. They were on competition with each other.. SoE released EQ2 earlier than WoW and many people purchased the game..It was unfinished and I quit a month after playing,just like many other people..But SoE made alot of money on its sales.. Most of us jumped ship to WoW where many stayed for a while until the game got to repetitive and became un fun.. But both games were released waaay before they should have been..
I'm not saying for Vanguard to be released before its done,but I've never seen a MMO, "and I've played them all" released even 90% complete.. All are normally released unfinished..Thats what patches are for...To fix the problems the game currently has..
I believe Vanguard will be released by June-July the latest..
Rallithon Oakthornn (Retired Heirophant of the 60th season)
Originally posted by oakthornn Look what WoW and EQ2 both did.. They were on competition with each other.. SoE released EQ2 earlier than WoW and many people purchased the game..It was unfinished and I quit a month after playing,just like many other people..But SoE made alot of money on its sales.. Most of us jumped ship to WoW where many stayed for a while until the game got to repetitive and became un fun.. But both games were released waaay before they should have been.. I'm not saying for Vanguard to be released before its done,but I've never seen a MMO, "and I've played them all" released even 90% complete.. All are normally released unfinished..Thats what patches are for...To fix the problems the game currently has.. I believe Vanguard will be released by June-July the latest..
I agree about WoW and Eq2 to acertain extent. The WoW devs knew theier game was much further along than EQ2 so they just waited. They essentially baited EQ2 into announcing a premature release date. Then WoW to announced an open beta to coinide with EQ2's relase and a release date 3 weeks later. WoW let 500k people into the open beta destroying EQ2's release and then cashed in on their release of 11/22.
Vanguard might be in the same position. AoC will probably not be ready for a smooth release until the end of 2007. Vanguard should be ready sometime between summer and winter of 2006. They still have beta 2, 3 and 4 to finish. Beta 4 most lilkely will be 2-4 weeks. Beta 2 will porobably bew 2-4 months. They have said beta 3 will take the longest of any of their stages. Which means at least 3-4 months and maybe as long as 9 months. There isa lot to test there. The fastest Vanguard should be ready is 6 months form the start of beta2 on 12/15. Most likely fall or winter. Which is still petty amazing as all games miss release dates while Vanguard appears to be right on schedule.
Outside of Vanguard there is really no other games that will be released in 2006 besides RFO and DDO. Neither appear to be competitors. RFO appears to be a L2 knock off which should mean its a quality well made game but most likely limited in gameplay and content. DDO appears to be a game being made for casual small groups of friends who like to play only a few hours a week. DnL appears to be dead in the water. At best it will be a niche game assuming it makes it to release. Every other game appears to be far off in development.
I agree that AoC is the next big game after Vanguard but I doubt it will release before the summer of 2007. Unless they are hiding a lot from us this game seems far from release. Hero's Journey is another game to watch in 2007. It got suprisingly good reviews at E3.
Vanguard exists ina unique position where they have the luxury to wait and make the game good before release with little interference from other games. I also agree that releaseing concurrently with WoW's expansion is not good. But if the game is well done and stable it will do well. EQ1 had the good fortune of being released at the right time. Vanguard should have that same good fortune.
yeah i don't think vanguard needs to worry about competing with wow, there is no way they could with the type of game they are making. vanguard will have its fan base regardless of what wow does.
AOC on the other hand will be competing more against wow IMO, i am very interested in AOC but it is going to be another game that is casual friendly to try and accommodate the wow type player base and that might be a problem. so maybe waiting until 07' wouldn't be a bad idea for them.
but in my prediction, vanguard will release in 06' and will be successful.
Originally posted by angerr yeah i don't think vanguard needs to worry about competing with wow, there is no way they could with the type of game they are making. vanguard will have its fan base regardless of what wow does.
I guess it depends on how you define competing. I don't think anyone thinks Vanguard or anyone will be competing with number of subs of wow. But Vanguatrd will be competing for disgruntled subscribers of WoW and players that want a more challenging game. Vanguard is targetted at a different audience than wow but many of wow's subscribers will be part of Vanguard's target. I agree with the poster a few above that a release that coincides with the expansion may mean less intial sales for Vanguard. But what will define Vanguard's success is not who it is released against but how good the game is. If its good many will play including many who may hate the design. If its bad probably only those that love the game design will play, Either way I can't wait.
Originally posted by Zippy Originally posted by angerr yeah i don't think vanguard needs to worry about competing with wow, there is no way they could with the type of game they are making. vanguard will have its fan base regardless of what wow does.I guess it depends on how you define competing. I don't think anyone thinks Vanguard or anyone will be competing with number of subs of wow. But Vanguatrd will be competing for disgruntled subscribers of WoW and players that want a more challenging game. Vanguard is targetted at a different audience than wow but many of wow's subscribers will be part of Vanguard's target. I agree with the poster a few above that a release that coincides with the expansion may mean less intial sales for Vanguard. But what will define Vanguard's success is not who it is released against but how good the game is. If its good many will play including many who may hate the design. If its bad probably only those that love the game design will play, Either way I can't wait.
well considering the majority of wow players(and i mean almost all wow players) will not like vanguard because it will not be easy like wow, vanguard wont be competing against them in that sense.
that was my point, vanguard will put the nail in eq2's coffin though and probably ffx just my prediction and opinion.
Originally posted by angerr yeah i don't think vanguard needs to worry about competing with wow, there is no way they could with the type of game they are making. vanguard will have its fan base regardless of what wow does. I guess it depends on how you define competing. I don't think anyone thinks Vanguard or anyone will be competing with number of subs of wow. But Vanguatrd will be competing for disgruntled subscribers of WoW and players that want a more challenging game. Vanguard is targetted at a different audience than wow but many of wow's subscribers will be part of Vanguard's target. I agree with the poster a few above that a release that coincides with the expansion may mean less intial sales for Vanguard. But what will define Vanguard's success is not who it is released against but how good the game is. If its good many will play including many who may hate the design. If its bad probably only those that love the game design will play, Either way I can't wait.
well considering the majority of wow players(and i mean almost all wow players) will not like vanguard because it will not be easy like wow, vanguard wont be competing against them in that sense.
that was my point, vanguard will put the nail in eq2's coffin though and probably ffx just my prediction and opinion.
I agree with you about EQ2. If Vanguard realizes its promise many will be running from Eq2. About WoW's playerbase I disagree somewhat. Many people play WoW and hate the game design but play because there is nothing better, many are new players that will want a more challenging game, many will want to try any game and many are annoying children that I hope stay far far away from Vanguard. But I agree with you Vanguard is not competing with WoW just competing with it for some its fringe playerbase.
But Vanguards ultimate success will be defined not by other games but by how good a game it is. If its good and what we hope for its target base will play and be very happy, people that are in between will play and be happy and even people that hate the design will play and be somewhat happy. Vanguard IMO is just competing with itself. All SGO has to worry about is making a good game. If they do they will have their field of dreams and people will come. They are lucky they should be releasing at a time with few otehr games and many people looking for a gme to call home. i hope they take thier time and make it a good game. Although I can't wait. While I hope Vanguard is successful I selfishly and with a degree of elitism hope its not hugely successful as I would hate to see many of the wow players and those that like to jump on the bandwagon play and lower the quality of the playerbase and community.
Zippy sound like raiders explaining why everyone like to raid in MMOs.
Vanguard will never get more than a "niche market" as long as they have raiding enabled on all their servers, you have to beat WoW. WoW massive success is certainly not linked to Onyxia or whatever raiding in the game, no matter what Brad or Afterlife are going to throw out! The more peoples learn about raiding and dislike it, the less room you have to put any raiding in the game and shortcut your real content work. But believe what you want.
Yesterday, 1 of my two friends who were still raiding give up on raiding in EQ. The last thing he wants is another raiding trap! My friend who is raiding in WoW, I can bet with you that he will not want to try a raiding game ever again after! But believe what you want!
Nearly everyone welcome challenge, as long as it is in the activity they do and find it fun. A grouper or a soloer about raiding "end game enforcement"...believe what you want!
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
Originally posted by Zippy Originally posted by angerrOriginally posted by ZippyOriginally posted by angerr yeah i don't think vanguard needs to worry about competing with wow, there is no way they could with the type of game they are making. vanguard will have its fan base regardless of what wow does. I guess it depends on how you define competing. I don't think anyone thinks Vanguard or anyone will be competing with number of subs of wow. But Vanguatrd will be competing for disgruntled subscribers of WoW and players that want a more challenging game. Vanguard is targetted at a different audience than wow but many of wow's subscribers will be part of Vanguard's target. I agree with the poster a few above that a release that coincides with the expansion may mean less intial sales for Vanguard. But what will define Vanguard's success is not who it is released against but how good the game is. If its good many will play including many who may hate the design. If its bad probably only those that love the game design will play, Either way I can't wait. well considering the majority of wow players(and i mean almost all wow players) will not like vanguard because it will not be easy like wow, vanguard wont be competing against them in that sense. that was my point, vanguard will put the nail in eq2's coffin though and probably ffx just my prediction and opinion. I agree with you about EQ2. If Vanguard realizes its promise many will be running from Eq2. About WoW's playerbase I disagree somewhat. Many people play WoW and hate the game design but play because there is nothing better, many are new players that will want a more challenging game, many will want to try any game and many are annoying children that I hope stay far far away from Vanguard. But I agree with you Vanguard is not competing with WoW just competing with it for some its fringe playerbase. But Vanguards ultimate success will be defined not by other games but by how good a game it is. If its good and what we hope for its target base will play and be very happy, people that are in between will play and be happy and even people that hate the design will play and be somewhat happy. Vanguard IMO is just competing with itself. All SGO has to worry about is making a good game. If they do they will have their field of dreams and people will come. They are lucky they should be releasing at a time with few otehr games and many people looking for a gme to call home. i hope they take thier time and make it a good game. Although I can't wait. While I hope Vanguard is successful I selfishly and with a degree of elitism hope its not hugely successful as I would hate to see many of the wow players and those that like to jump on the bandwagon play and lower the quality of the playerbase and community.
haha yeah totally bro, i don't want all those bnet kiddies in my beloved vanguard
while i also agree alot of people play wow(including myself) because thats the best thing out there right now. but i still think the huge majority is casual or semi casual and wont like vanguard IMO, i could be wrong though ofcource.
Originally posted by Anofalye Zippy sound like raiders explaining why everyone like to raid in MMOs.
Vanguard will never get more than a "niche market" as long as they have raiding enabled on all their servers, you have to beat WoW. WoW massive success is certainly not linked to Onyxia or whatever raiding in the game, no matter what Brad or Afterlife are going to throw out! The more peoples learn about raiding and dislike it, the less room you have to put any raiding in the game and shortcut your real content work. But believe what you want.
Yesterday, 1 of my two friends who were still raiding give up on raiding in EQ. The last thing he wants is another raiding trap! My friend who is raiding in WoW, I can bet with you that he will not want to try a raiding game ever again after! But believe what you want!
that is true, but raiding is a big part of it no matter what you might think. people will not stay in wow if all there was, was grouping. at least not the way it is set up now, they would need to add alot more grouping content. one of the biggest complaints i see on the wow forums is lack of endgame.... not that people don't like raiding lol
we have had this discussion before, we don't need to have it again i am just pointing out a fact.
Originally posted by Anofalye Zippy sound like raiders explaining why everyone like to raid in MMOs.
Vanguard will never get more than a "niche market" as long as they have raiding enabled on all their servers, you have to beat WoW. WoW massive success is certainly not linked to Onyxia or whatever raiding in the game, no matter what Brad or Afterlife are going to throw out! The more peoples learn about raiding and dislike it, the less room you have to put any raiding in the game and shortcut your real content work. But believe what you want.
Yesterday, 1 of my two friends who were still raiding give up on raiding in EQ. The last thing he wants is another raiding trap! My friend who is raiding in WoW, I can bet with you that he will not want to try a raiding game ever again after! But believe what you want!
that is true, but raiding is a big part of it no matter what you might think. people will not stay in wow if all there was, was grouping. at least not the way it is set up now, they would need to add alot more grouping content. one of the biggest complaints i see on the wow forums is lack of endgame.... not that people don't like raiding lol
we have had this discussion before, we don't need to have it again i am just pointing out a fact.
Vanguard has a big advantage over WoW in that leveling will be a lot slower. With a slower leveling cycle they will have the oppurtunity to add more content. Despite the problem with WoW's easy leveling and repetitive raiding people keep playing and they keep adding servers. I am hoping Vanguard's raiding will be better, offer more for 1-2 groups to do, offer more challenge and more variety. Brad has been hush hush about revealing much endgmae information and has said much of it will be kept out of beta. Hopefully there is more than just raiding, devoloping crafting skills and diplomacy skills. But I am concerned, Many people love raiding, many hate huge raids and many mainly love playing in groups. Its bound to be a sore spot and something that will create lots of disgreement. Just look at all the threads on the official forums the last month on raiding. Brad has said time and time again the game is group focused and that means endgame as well. I don't know how he instends to accomplish this but I hope the alternatives he offers are better than what we have seen in other games.
Originally posted by Zippy Originally posted by angerrOriginally posted by AnofalyeZippy sound like raiders explaining why everyone like to raid in MMOs. Vanguard will never get more than a "niche market" as long as they have raiding enabled on all their servers, you have to beat WoW. WoW massive success is certainly not linked to Onyxia or whatever raiding in the game, no matter what Brad or Afterlife are going to throw out! The more peoples learn about raiding and dislike it, the less room you have to put any raiding in the game and shortcut your real content work. But believe what you want. Yesterday, 1 of my two friends who were still raiding give up on raiding in EQ. The last thing he wants is another raiding trap! My friend who is raiding in WoW, I can bet with you that he will not want to try a raiding game ever again after! But believe what you want!that is true, but raiding is a big part of it no matter what you might think. people will not stay in wow if all there was, was grouping. at least not the way it is set up now, they would need to add alot more grouping content. one of the biggest complaints i see on the wow forums is lack of endgame.... not that people don't like raiding lol we have had this discussion before, we don't need to have it again i am just pointing out a fact. Vanguard has a big advantage over WoW in that leveling will be a lot slower. With a slower leveling cycle they will have the oppurtunity to add more content. Despite the problem with WoW's easy leveling and repetitive raiding people keep playing and they keep adding servers. I am hoping Vanguard's raiding will be better, offer more for 1-2 groups to do, offer more challenge and more variety. Brad has been hush hush about revealing much endgmae information and has said much of it will be kept out of beta. Hopefully there is more than just raiding, devoloping crafting skills and diplomacy skills. But I am concerned, Many people love raiding, many hate huge raids and many mainly love playing in groups. Its bound to be a sore spot and something that will create lots of disgreement. Just look at all the threads on the official forums the last month on raiding. Brad has said time and time again the game is group focused and that means endgame as well. I don't know how he instends to accomplish this but I hope the alternatives he offers are better than what we have seen in other games.
yeah I'm not contesting that, there does need to be something at end game besides just raiding. hell i support a game that has no raiding as long as i can progress with my character for as long as i chose and not get bored. but i like to interact with people in game, i like to group and yes i like to raid sometimes to.
the main problem i have is with games like wow that are indeed solo friendly games. because everyone is trying to solo and it is really hard to find groups because of this. and that is why i like vanguard, i want a game geared for grouping, raiding or not i just want to group i don't want to have to solo anymore, i do enough of that in wow...as a mateer of fact thats usually all i do lol.
Each phase of beta is taking about 3 months. They started beta 2 in December and they are expected to have 4 phases, phase 4 being mostly stress test.
I would expect beta testing to be done around the end of June / begining of July and it takes about a month to reproduce the game after gold so expect it on the shevles, I would guess, sometime in August. I'm Guessing August 8th.
Originally posted by oakthornn Look what WoW and EQ2 both did.. They were on competition with each other.. SoE released EQ2 earlier than WoW and many people purchased the game..It was unfinished and I quit a month after playing,just like many other people..But SoE made alot of money on its sales.. Most of us jumped ship to WoW where many stayed for a while until the game got to repetitive and became un fun.. But both games were released waaay before they should have been.. I'm not saying for Vanguard to be released before its done,but I've never seen a MMO, "and I've played them all" released even 90% complete.. All are normally released unfinished..Thats what patches are for...To fix the problems the game currently has.. I believe Vanguard will be released by June-July the latest..
I agree about WoW and Eq2 to acertain extent. The WoW devs knew theier game was much further along than EQ2 so they just waited. They essentially baited EQ2 into announcing a premature release date. Then WoW to announced an open beta to coinide with EQ2's relase and a release date 3 weeks later. WoW let 500k people into the open beta destroying EQ2's release and then cashed in on their release of 11/22.
Vanguard might be in the same position. AoC will probably not be ready for a smooth release until the end of 2007. Vanguard should be ready sometime between summer and winter of 2006. They still have beta 2, 3 and 4 to finish. Beta 4 most lilkely will be 2-4 weeks. Beta 2 will porobably bew 2-4 months. They have said beta 3 will take the longest of any of their stages. Which means at least 3-4 months and maybe as long as 9 months. There isa lot to test there. The fastest Vanguard should be ready is 6 months form the start of beta2 on 12/15. Most likely fall or winter. Which is still petty amazing as all games miss release dates while Vanguard appears to be right on schedule.
Outside of Vanguard there is really no other games that will be released in 2006 besides RFO and DDO. Neither appear to be competitors. RFO appears to be a L2 knock off which should mean its a quality well made game but most likely limited in gameplay and content. DDO appears to be a game being made for casual small groups of friends who like to play only a few hours a week. DnL appears to be dead in the water. At best it will be a niche game assuming it makes it to release. Every other game appears to be far off in development.
I agree that AoC is the next big game after Vanguard but I doubt it will release before the summer of 2007. Unless they are hiding a lot from us this game seems far from release. Hero's Journey is another game to watch in 2007. It got suprisingly good reviews at E3.
Vanguard exists ina unique position where they have the luxury to wait and make the game good before release with little interference from other games. I also agree that releaseing concurrently with WoW's expansion is not good. But if the game is well done and stable it will do well. EQ1 had the good fortune of being released at the right time. Vanguard should have that same good fortune.
Have you checked out The Chronicle? That game has some very nice promising features.. RF Online and DDO both will be released very shortly with The Chronicle realistically about 3 months away from going live.. Personally I don't think Sigil can just take their time polishing Vanguard.. It may bite them in the a** at the end.. Right now I'm so bored of WoW,no interest in playing EQ2 again,along with every other MMO's,i'm playing SoR to pass the time.. Although I'm highly anticipating Vanguards release,games such as RF Online and The Chronicle "if good enough" may keep my interest even when Vanguard goes live..
My point is this: If Vanguard isn't completed till winter of this year,many other MMO's coming out this year may take away alot of EQ2,WoW,and DAOC's fanbase leaving the playerbase somewhat empty by the time Vanguard goes live,,,,if its 4th quarter of this year.. Now don't get me wrong.I've been following Vanguard and highly anticipating its release for over 2 years now,but look at the MMO's that came out since then..The only game that kept my interest longer than 3-4 months was WoW..And in the last 2 years none were released that had promise except for EQ2 and WoW.. Point is,this year there are quite a few MMO's being released,some quite likely to surprise people,while others that sound good may not even be released, *cough DnL* *Cough Darkfall*
Personally I think Vanguard's toughest competition is AoC,but that game probably wont come out till Winter or this time next year,The Chronicle is for old fans of UO,Shadowbane mainly,but also may attract WoW fans and EQ2 fans depending..WoW's expansion looks and sounds impressive which definitely will have people staying If Vanguard isn't live yet,as well as possibly attract the WoW community which quit WoW middly of last year due to lack of content..
Sigil has been working on Vanguard for a loooong time,the game looks and sounds like everything I want and miss in a MMO,but If they take their time and the game goes live after everything else comes out,I'm afraid they will lose ALOT of its fan and playerbase..Especially If these other games are actually good..
So personally I think Sigil cant afford to dick around with Vanguard..They are unofficially on a time schedule they need to keep. WoW's expansion probably ont be out until summer this year,and I fully expect Vanguard to go live this summer NO MATTER WHAT..Beta 2 will probably last till very late winter with Phase 3 lasting until early summer,then phase 4 lasting just about a month.. June-July sounds about right to me,,but that is just my opinion..
Rallithon Oakthornn (Retired Heirophant of the 60th season)
Have you checked out The Chronicle? That game has some very nice promising features.. RF Online and DDO both will be released very shortly with The Chronicle realistically about 3 months away from going live.. Personally I don't think Sigil can just take their time polishing Vanguard.. It may bite them in the a** at the end.. Right now I'm so bored of WoW,no interest in playing EQ2 again,along with every other MMO's,i'm playing SoR to pass the time.. Although I'm highly anticipating Vanguards release,games such as RF Online and The Chronicle "if good enough" may keep my interest even when Vanguard goes live..
My point is this: If Vanguard isn't completed till winter of this year,many other MMO's coming out this year may take away alot of EQ2,WoW,and DAOC's fanbase leaving the playerbase somewhat empty by the time Vanguard goes live,,,,if its 4th quarter of this year.. Now don't get me wrong.I've been following Vanguard and highly anticipating its release for over 2 years now,but look at the MMO's that came out since then..The only game that kept my interest longer than 3-4 months was WoW..And in the last 2 years none were released that had promise except for EQ2 and WoW.. Point is,this year there are quite a few MMO's being released,some quite likely to surprise people,while others that sound good may not even be released, *cough DnL* *Cough Darkfall*
Personally I think Vanguard's toughest competition is AoC,but that game probably wont come out till Winter or this time next year,The Chronicle is for old fans of UO,Shadowbane mainly,but also may attract WoW fans and EQ2 fans depending..WoW's expansion looks and sounds impressive which definitely will have people staying If Vanguard isn't live yet,as well as possibly attract the WoW community which quit WoW middly of last year due to lack of content..
Sigil has been working on Vanguard for a loooong time,the game looks and sounds like everything I want and miss in a MMO,but If they take their time and the game goes live after everything else comes out,I'm afraid they will lose ALOT of its fan and playerbase..Especially If these other games are actually good..
So personally I think Sigil cant afford to dick around with Vanguard..They are unofficially on a time schedule they need to keep. WoW's expansion probably ont be out until summer this year,and I fully expect Vanguard to go live this summer NO MATTER WHAT..Beta 2 will probably last till very late winter with Phase 3 lasting until early summer,then phase 4 lasting just about a month.. June-July sounds about right to me,,but that is just my opinion..
I have checked out the Chroincle. while I love the idea of a small developer making MMO's I am highly doubfull about their claims that they can make agame so fast. Below is a good Chronicle article and it gives a good impression how small the dev team is. http://www.ogaming.com/data/3412~mmocenter.php The Chroincles engine switch should delay the start of beta until at least the spring. I don''t see how Chroincles can release a playable game before 2008. A lot of game companies make claims they can develop a game in a short period of time but none ever do. Chronicle claims it can make a game in 8 months but 4 years is very fast for a huge development team. I just don't see how they can do it in such a short period of time and make a good game. Vanguard started development in I think (but not sure but close) in the summber of 2002. AoC has not even started beta yet or is even that close to starting beta. A 2006 release is most likely not going to happen. A late 2007 release might be a lot more realistic for AoC.
Wow's expansion is tenatively supposed to be out next winter. I agree that a silmutaneous release would keep some people busy that might otherwise try Vanguard and maybe more importantly the massive hype surrounding WoW's expansion may drown out the word of Vanguard's release. Much betetr to have the stage to yourself when your releasing rather than competing against anotehr compnay for print space.
But I do share your excitement about the game and hope it is everything we are dreaming of. I just hope they take their time and get it done right.
Originally posted by ZippyI guess it depends on how you define competing.
Pertinent point. I think a lot of people get confused when talking about the success of WoW, and assume it has 5 million subscribers in the US paying $15 a month. Actually WoW peaked at 1 million, many months ago, in the US, and around 5-600k in Europe. 3.5 million, not an insignifigant number, are from Blizzard's success in selling the game to a previously difficult market, for US and EU based companies, the far east.
I read an article predicting that WoW might gain as many as 5 million subs in China alone, not to mention Korea. With these kind of numbers no new game will come close to WoW, no matter how good it is, because WoWs success in the far east was based more on it's reputation through previous games, like starcraft, warcraft, and the HUGE fanatical support already in place. WoW may continue to have MASSIVE world wide success, merely due to the far east numbers and the fact that gamers out there actually like to grind, so the end game won't put them off. I doubt any new US or EU developed game will sell as well out there, not without some kind of reputation.
But if you look at the US, EU, and Oceanic markets, WoW WILL decline when the next wave comes out, from DDO to Vanguard, from LOTR to Conan. Whilst still a huge number, that 1.5 million can easily be wittled down, especially since so many of us already played and quit, and many continue to cancel when they hit the end game grind. I suspect that if some better games had been released in '05 it's influx of new players would not be so high, and the number of cancellations would be much higher.
Originally posted by Takoto To put the post back on track: Looks like Somewhere around August of 2006. As of today 1/5/06 they're in Beta 2. Brad (from Sigil games) isn't a huge fan of Beta and it won't overstay its welcome.
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Now this doesn't mean we don't listen, take feedback into consideration, and make tweaks and small changes. It also doesn't mean we don't have 'plan b's in case some of our newer ideas don't pan out the way we hope -- I always like to have a fallback position, and I'm also a fan of long betas so we can really learn what is working right and what needs to be tweaked and then have the time to make the appropriate changes. - Aradune Mithara
Comments
release date is in 2006 sometime.
Probably somewhere around june-august
Sadly Sigil does games right, and they refuse to toss the baby out of the carriage and expect it to book it into high gear. But instead craddle and love that baby =p until it has out grown the carriage (betas) and come to our homes =p
But yeah probally nearing summer months i would say is best bet.
Personally I think Vanguard will be released before WoW's expansion comes out and before AoC goes live.. IMO,those two games are the only real threat to Vanguard as to which game will attract most people..
If WoW comes out with their expansion before Vanguard is released,well that means less people will leave WoW for Vanguard.. If AoC goes live before Vanguard is released,the same will probably happen.. If both WoW expansion and AoC is released before Vanguard goes live,then good luck with selling the product.
Personally I've been follosing Vanguard since late 2003.. Back then I couldn't wait for Vanguard to come out.. Since then and until a few days ago I looked heavily into AoC,The Chronicle,RF Online,DnL,and what WoW's expansion will bring to the table.. With so many good sounding MMO's coming out this year,Sigil better hope to release Vanguard beforeall the other MMO's go live..
As a businessman and Marketer, Vanguard has been in development and one of the highly anticipated MMO's to come out the last couple years.. But If other MMO's release their game earlier than Vanguard,people will likely quit what their playing now,try them out,and If AoC,The Chronicle,DnL,WoW's expansion etc are what they've been waiting for,Vanguard will lose alot of its playerbase before the game is even released...
Look what WoW and EQ2 both did.. They were on competition with each other.. SoE released EQ2 earlier than WoW and many people purchased the game..It was unfinished and I quit a month after playing,just like many other people..But SoE made alot of money on its sales.. Most of us jumped ship to WoW where many stayed for a while until the game got to repetitive and became un fun.. But both games were released waaay before they should have been..
I'm not saying for Vanguard to be released before its done,but I've never seen a MMO, "and I've played them all" released even 90% complete.. All are normally released unfinished..Thats what patches are for...To fix the problems the game currently has..
I believe Vanguard will be released by June-July the latest..
Rallithon Oakthornn
(Retired Heirophant of the 60th season)
I agree about WoW and Eq2 to acertain extent. The WoW devs knew theier game was much further along than EQ2 so they just waited. They essentially baited EQ2 into announcing a premature release date. Then WoW to announced an open beta to coinide with EQ2's relase and a release date 3 weeks later. WoW let 500k people into the open beta destroying EQ2's release and then cashed in on their release of 11/22.
Vanguard might be in the same position. AoC will probably not be ready for a smooth release until the end of 2007. Vanguard should be ready sometime between summer and winter of 2006. They still have beta 2, 3 and 4 to finish. Beta 4 most lilkely will be 2-4 weeks. Beta 2 will porobably bew 2-4 months. They have said beta 3 will take the longest of any of their stages. Which means at least 3-4 months and maybe as long as 9 months. There isa lot to test there. The fastest Vanguard should be ready is 6 months form the start of beta2 on 12/15. Most likely fall or winter. Which is still petty amazing as all games miss release dates while Vanguard appears to be right on schedule.
Outside of Vanguard there is really no other games that will be released in 2006 besides RFO and DDO. Neither appear to be competitors. RFO appears to be a L2 knock off which should mean its a quality well made game but most likely limited in gameplay and content. DDO appears to be a game being made for casual small groups of friends who like to play only a few hours a week. DnL appears to be dead in the water. At best it will be a niche game assuming it makes it to release. Every other game appears to be far off in development.
I agree that AoC is the next big game after Vanguard but I doubt it will release before the summer of 2007. Unless they are hiding a lot from us this game seems far from release. Hero's Journey is another game to watch in 2007. It got suprisingly good reviews at E3.
Vanguard exists ina unique position where they have the luxury to wait and make the game good before release with little interference from other games. I also agree that releaseing concurrently with WoW's expansion is not good. But if the game is well done and stable it will do well. EQ1 had the good fortune of being released at the right time. Vanguard should have that same good fortune.
yeah i don't think vanguard needs to worry about competing with wow, there is no way they could with the type of game they are making. vanguard will have its fan base regardless of what wow does.
AOC on the other hand will be competing more against wow IMO, i am very interested in AOC but it is going to be another game that is casual friendly to try and accommodate the wow type player base and that might be a problem. so maybe waiting until 07' wouldn't be a bad idea for them.
but in my prediction, vanguard will release in 06' and will be successful.
read this http://www.vanguardsoh.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1044304#post1044304 then come back and talk to me about the vanguard/soe fiasco.....
well considering the majority of wow players(and i mean almost all wow players) will not like vanguard because it will not be easy like wow, vanguard wont be competing against them in that sense.
that was my point, vanguard will put the nail in eq2's coffin though and probably ffx just my prediction and opinion.
read this http://www.vanguardsoh.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1044304#post1044304 then come back and talk to me about the vanguard/soe fiasco.....
well considering the majority of wow players(and i mean almost all wow players) will not like vanguard because it will not be easy like wow, vanguard wont be competing against them in that sense.
that was my point, vanguard will put the nail in eq2's coffin though and probably ffx just my prediction and opinion.
I agree with you about EQ2. If Vanguard realizes its promise many will be running from Eq2. About WoW's playerbase I disagree somewhat. Many people play WoW and hate the game design but play because there is nothing better, many are new players that will want a more challenging game, many will want to try any game and many are annoying children that I hope stay far far away from Vanguard. But I agree with you Vanguard is not competing with WoW just competing with it for some its fringe playerbase.
But Vanguards ultimate success will be defined not by other games but by how good a game it is. If its good and what we hope for its target base will play and be very happy, people that are in between will play and be happy and even people that hate the design will play and be somewhat happy. Vanguard IMO is just competing with itself. All SGO has to worry about is making a good game. If they do they will have their field of dreams and people will come. They are lucky they should be releasing at a time with few otehr games and many people looking for a gme to call home. i hope they take thier time and make it a good game. Although I can't wait. While I hope Vanguard is successful I selfishly and with a degree of elitism hope its not hugely successful as I would hate to see many of the wow players and those that like to jump on the bandwagon play and lower the quality of the playerbase and community.
Zippy sound like raiders explaining why everyone like to raid in MMOs.
Vanguard will never get more than a "niche market" as long as they have raiding enabled on all their servers, you have to beat WoW. WoW massive success is certainly not linked to Onyxia or whatever raiding in the game, no matter what Brad or Afterlife are going to throw out! The more peoples learn about raiding and dislike it, the less room you have to put any raiding in the game and shortcut your real content work. But believe what you want.
Yesterday, 1 of my two friends who were still raiding give up on raiding in EQ. The last thing he wants is another raiding trap! My friend who is raiding in WoW, I can bet with you that he will not want to try a raiding game ever again after! But believe what you want!
Nearly everyone welcome challenge, as long as it is in the activity they do and find it fun. A grouper or a soloer about raiding "end game enforcement"...believe what you want!
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
haha yeah totally bro, i don't want all those bnet kiddies in my beloved vanguard
while i also agree alot of people play wow(including myself) because thats the best thing out there right now. but i still think the huge majority is casual or semi casual and wont like vanguard IMO, i could be wrong though ofcource.
read this http://www.vanguardsoh.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1044304#post1044304 then come back and talk to me about the vanguard/soe fiasco.....
that is true, but raiding is a big part of it no matter what you might think. people will not stay in wow if all there was, was grouping. at least not the way it is set up now, they would need to add alot more grouping content. one of the biggest complaints i see on the wow forums is lack of endgame.... not that people don't like raiding lol
we have had this discussion before, we don't need to have it again i am just pointing out a fact.
read this http://www.vanguardsoh.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1044304#post1044304 then come back and talk to me about the vanguard/soe fiasco.....
that is true, but raiding is a big part of it no matter what you might think. people will not stay in wow if all there was, was grouping. at least not the way it is set up now, they would need to add alot more grouping content. one of the biggest complaints i see on the wow forums is lack of endgame.... not that people don't like raiding lol
we have had this discussion before, we don't need to have it again i am just pointing out a fact.
Vanguard has a big advantage over WoW in that leveling will be a lot slower. With a slower leveling cycle they will have the oppurtunity to add more content. Despite the problem with WoW's easy leveling and repetitive raiding people keep playing and they keep adding servers. I am hoping Vanguard's raiding will be better, offer more for 1-2 groups to do, offer more challenge and more variety. Brad has been hush hush about revealing much endgmae information and has said much of it will be kept out of beta. Hopefully there is more than just raiding, devoloping crafting skills and diplomacy skills. But I am concerned, Many people love raiding, many hate huge raids and many mainly love playing in groups. Its bound to be a sore spot and something that will create lots of disgreement. Just look at all the threads on the official forums the last month on raiding. Brad has said time and time again the game is group focused and that means endgame as well. I don't know how he instends to accomplish this but I hope the alternatives he offers are better than what we have seen in other games.
yeah I'm not contesting that, there does need to be something at end game besides just raiding. hell i support a game that has no raiding as long as i can progress with my character for as long as i chose and not get bored. but i like to interact with people in game, i like to group and yes i like to raid sometimes to.
the main problem i have is with games like wow that are indeed solo friendly games. because everyone is trying to solo and it is really hard to find groups because of this. and that is why i like vanguard, i want a game geared for grouping, raiding or not i just want to group i don't want to have to solo anymore, i do enough of that in wow...as a mateer of fact thats usually all i do lol.
read this http://www.vanguardsoh.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1044304#post1044304 then come back and talk to me about the vanguard/soe fiasco.....
Each phase of beta is taking about 3 months. They started beta 2 in December and they are expected to have 4 phases, phase 4 being mostly stress test.
I would expect beta testing to be done around the end of June / begining of July and it takes about a month to reproduce the game after gold so expect it on the shevles, I would guess, sometime in August. I'm Guessing August 8th.
I agree about WoW and Eq2 to acertain extent. The WoW devs knew theier game was much further along than EQ2 so they just waited. They essentially baited EQ2 into announcing a premature release date. Then WoW to announced an open beta to coinide with EQ2's relase and a release date 3 weeks later. WoW let 500k people into the open beta destroying EQ2's release and then cashed in on their release of 11/22.
Vanguard might be in the same position. AoC will probably not be ready for a smooth release until the end of 2007. Vanguard should be ready sometime between summer and winter of 2006. They still have beta 2, 3 and 4 to finish. Beta 4 most lilkely will be 2-4 weeks. Beta 2 will porobably bew 2-4 months. They have said beta 3 will take the longest of any of their stages. Which means at least 3-4 months and maybe as long as 9 months. There isa lot to test there. The fastest Vanguard should be ready is 6 months form the start of beta2 on 12/15. Most likely fall or winter. Which is still petty amazing as all games miss release dates while Vanguard appears to be right on schedule.
Outside of Vanguard there is really no other games that will be released in 2006 besides RFO and DDO. Neither appear to be competitors. RFO appears to be a L2 knock off which should mean its a quality well made game but most likely limited in gameplay and content. DDO appears to be a game being made for casual small groups of friends who like to play only a few hours a week. DnL appears to be dead in the water. At best it will be a niche game assuming it makes it to release. Every other game appears to be far off in development.
I agree that AoC is the next big game after Vanguard but I doubt it will release before the summer of 2007. Unless they are hiding a lot from us this game seems far from release. Hero's Journey is another game to watch in 2007. It got suprisingly good reviews at E3.
Vanguard exists ina unique position where they have the luxury to wait and make the game good before release with little interference from other games. I also agree that releaseing concurrently with WoW's expansion is not good. But if the game is well done and stable it will do well. EQ1 had the good fortune of being released at the right time. Vanguard should have that same good fortune.
Have you checked out The Chronicle? That game has some very nice promising features.. RF Online and DDO both will be released very shortly with The Chronicle realistically about 3 months away from going live.. Personally I don't think Sigil can just take their time polishing Vanguard.. It may bite them in the a** at the end.. Right now I'm so bored of WoW,no interest in playing EQ2 again,along with every other MMO's,i'm playing SoR to pass the time.. Although I'm highly anticipating Vanguards release,games such as RF Online and The Chronicle "if good enough" may keep my interest even when Vanguard goes live..
My point is this: If Vanguard isn't completed till winter of this year,many other MMO's coming out this year may take away alot of EQ2,WoW,and DAOC's fanbase leaving the playerbase somewhat empty by the time Vanguard goes live,,,,if its 4th quarter of this year.. Now don't get me wrong.I've been following Vanguard and highly anticipating its release for over 2 years now,but look at the MMO's that came out since then..The only game that kept my interest longer than 3-4 months was WoW..And in the last 2 years none were released that had promise except for EQ2 and WoW.. Point is,this year there are quite a few MMO's being released,some quite likely to surprise people,while others that sound good may not even be released, *cough DnL* *Cough Darkfall*
Personally I think Vanguard's toughest competition is AoC,but that game probably wont come out till Winter or this time next year,The Chronicle is for old fans of UO,Shadowbane mainly,but also may attract WoW fans and EQ2 fans depending..WoW's expansion looks and sounds impressive which definitely will have people staying If Vanguard isn't live yet,as well as possibly attract the WoW community which quit WoW middly of last year due to lack of content..
Sigil has been working on Vanguard for a loooong time,the game looks and sounds like everything I want and miss in a MMO,but If they take their time and the game goes live after everything else comes out,I'm afraid they will lose ALOT of its fan and playerbase..Especially If these other games are actually good..
So personally I think Sigil cant afford to dick around with Vanguard..They are unofficially on a time schedule they need to keep. WoW's expansion probably ont be out until summer this year,and I fully expect Vanguard to go live this summer NO MATTER WHAT..Beta 2 will probably last till very late winter with Phase 3 lasting until early summer,then phase 4 lasting just about a month.. June-July sounds about right to me,,but that is just my opinion..
Rallithon Oakthornn
(Retired Heirophant of the 60th season)
Have you checked out The Chronicle? That game has some very nice promising features.. RF Online and DDO both will be released very shortly with The Chronicle realistically about 3 months away from going live.. Personally I don't think Sigil can just take their time polishing Vanguard.. It may bite them in the a** at the end.. Right now I'm so bored of WoW,no interest in playing EQ2 again,along with every other MMO's,i'm playing SoR to pass the time.. Although I'm highly anticipating Vanguards release,games such as RF Online and The Chronicle "if good enough" may keep my interest even when Vanguard goes live..
My point is this: If Vanguard isn't completed till winter of this year,many other MMO's coming out this year may take away alot of EQ2,WoW,and DAOC's fanbase leaving the playerbase somewhat empty by the time Vanguard goes live,,,,if its 4th quarter of this year.. Now don't get me wrong.I've been following Vanguard and highly anticipating its release for over 2 years now,but look at the MMO's that came out since then..The only game that kept my interest longer than 3-4 months was WoW..And in the last 2 years none were released that had promise except for EQ2 and WoW.. Point is,this year there are quite a few MMO's being released,some quite likely to surprise people,while others that sound good may not even be released, *cough DnL* *Cough Darkfall*
Personally I think Vanguard's toughest competition is AoC,but that game probably wont come out till Winter or this time next year,The Chronicle is for old fans of UO,Shadowbane mainly,but also may attract WoW fans and EQ2 fans depending..WoW's expansion looks and sounds impressive which definitely will have people staying If Vanguard isn't live yet,as well as possibly attract the WoW community which quit WoW middly of last year due to lack of content..
Sigil has been working on Vanguard for a loooong time,the game looks and sounds like everything I want and miss in a MMO,but If they take their time and the game goes live after everything else comes out,I'm afraid they will lose ALOT of its fan and playerbase..Especially If these other games are actually good..
So personally I think Sigil cant afford to dick around with Vanguard..They are unofficially on a time schedule they need to keep. WoW's expansion probably ont be out until summer this year,and I fully expect Vanguard to go live this summer NO MATTER WHAT..Beta 2 will probably last till very late winter with Phase 3 lasting until early summer,then phase 4 lasting just about a month.. June-July sounds about right to me,,but that is just my opinion..
I have checked out the Chroincle. while I love the idea of a small developer making MMO's I am highly doubfull about their claims that they can make agame so fast. Below is a good Chronicle article and it gives a good impression how small the dev team is. http://www.ogaming.com/data/3412~mmocenter.php The Chroincles engine switch should delay the start of beta until at least the spring. I don''t see how Chroincles can release a playable game before 2008. A lot of game companies make claims they can develop a game in a short period of time but none ever do. Chronicle claims it can make a game in 8 months but 4 years is very fast for a huge development team. I just don't see how they can do it in such a short period of time and make a good game. Vanguard started development in I think (but not sure but close) in the summber of 2002. AoC has not even started beta yet or is even that close to starting beta. A 2006 release is most likely not going to happen. A late 2007 release might be a lot more realistic for AoC.
Wow's expansion is tenatively supposed to be out next winter. I agree that a silmutaneous release would keep some people busy that might otherwise try Vanguard and maybe more importantly the massive hype surrounding WoW's expansion may drown out the word of Vanguard's release. Much betetr to have the stage to yourself when your releasing rather than competing against anotehr compnay for print space.
But I do share your excitement about the game and hope it is everything we are dreaming of. I just hope they take their time and get it done right.
Pertinent point. I think a lot of people get confused when talking about the success of WoW, and assume it has 5 million subscribers in the US paying $15 a month. Actually WoW peaked at 1 million, many months ago, in the US, and around 5-600k in Europe. 3.5 million, not an insignifigant number, are from Blizzard's success in selling the game to a previously difficult market, for US and EU based companies, the far east.
I read an article predicting that WoW might gain as many as 5 million subs in China alone, not to mention Korea. With these kind of numbers no new game will come close to WoW, no matter how good it is, because WoWs success in the far east was based more on it's reputation through previous games, like starcraft, warcraft, and the HUGE fanatical support already in place. WoW may continue to have MASSIVE world wide success, merely due to the far east numbers and the fact that gamers out there actually like to grind, so the end game won't put them off. I doubt any new US or EU developed game will sell as well out there, not without some kind of reputation.
But if you look at the US, EU, and Oceanic markets, WoW WILL decline when the next wave comes out, from DDO to Vanguard, from LOTR to Conan. Whilst still a huge number, that 1.5 million can easily be wittled down, especially since so many of us already played and quit, and many continue to cancel when they hit the end game grind. I suspect that if some better games had been released in '05 it's influx of new players would not be so high, and the number of cancellations would be much higher.
To put the post back on track:
Looks like Somewhere around August of 2006.
As of today 1/5/06 they're in Beta 2.
Brad (from Sigil games) isn't a huge fan of Beta and it won't overstay its welcome.
Actually, Brad is huge fan of long beta's...
From this link
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Now this doesn't mean we don't listen, take feedback into consideration, and make tweaks and small changes. It also doesn't mean we don't have 'plan b's in case some of our newer ideas don't pan out the way we hope -- I always like to have a fallback position, and I'm also a fan of long betas so we can really learn what is working right and what needs to be tweaked and then have the time to make the appropriate changes. - Aradune Mithara
Here's another quote from Brad about betas
Yes, i heard Vanguard will be out in early June. WoW expansion will be out in August i believe.