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5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.
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LOL I guess actual facts don't have much influence in any of your post than ? It's just an option you use to pass your opinion of as fact perhaps , it's rather funny that distracters from a game just use opinions disguised as facts and supporters have to use actual facts to back up an opinion .Perhaps all post that don't fit your agenda are BS ?
And Blizzard knows the worth of what Asians are paying and how much so nope it is not ir relevant.
Last month i logged in total of 5 hours in WOW but i was still counted in total sub numbers. Now on the other hand an Asian player probably payed maybe tripple the amount of money i paid and yet he is irrelevant because we are not getting a fixed amount on monthly basis?
WOW releases revenue and sub numbers to share holders every year...and i am sure you know what happens when you give false info to shareholders.
What facts? that 7.8 million sub number is imaginary and made up? isn't that what you were trying to say? what facts have you given to us to prove that Blizzard is lying? let me guess i am just supposed to take your word for it right?
Talk about irony in accusing me for using opinions disguised as facts.
The problem is your making guesses without access to any actual information, about how those numbers are calculated. How for instance, do you know that Blizzard doesn't calculate numbers of players in the Asian market, by the amount spent. Though theoretically that might mean that some players are counted more than once, just because they spend more. Its more likely to assume that the number estimates are based on revenue rather than someone logging in for the odd hour a month, assuming that even happens. Which is the problem with your statements, their no more valid than my own because neither of us has access to all the data, and i doubt either of us would understand it even if we did, however, there are people who actually do have access to all the data, and are able to make accurate calculations based on them, to give a valid figure, they work at Blizzard
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130508006734/en/Activision-Blizzard-Announces-Better-Than-Expected-Quarter-2013-Financial
Not that hard to find. Remember a big company like Blizzard can not just lie to its investors and shareholders and get away with it. It is a very serious offense.
Actually, Blizzard has said specifically how they count pay-by-the-hour players. Anybody who plays as much as a single hour in a given month is counted as a subscriber for that month. So someone who spends 1 dollar in a month is counted the same as someone spending 13-15, and someone spending 100 dollars in a month is counted the same as someone spending 13-15. Blizzard's choice to report only total "subscribers" makes their published subscriber numbers completely useless in estimating their revenue.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
You said 10 million ,,,,,that's fact not fiction . Give or take 7 or 8 million you probably have the facts right ,better to play hand grenades then darts when quoting numbers as facts
Um but my post wasn't about 7 million or 10 million but you calling people foolish for believing in Blizzard's information. (got any facts to prove Blizzard is lying?)
I simply made a mistake in saying that actual number is 10 million, when real number is around 7.8. And i also admitted my mistake and thanked the poster for correcting me.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
Yeah, no. I'm part of the Elder Scrolls player base. I have been since Daggerfall. I wouldn't touch this thing with a 10 league polearm.
His 'equation' isn't actually an equation.
How did I come up with this number? Heres how...
I took an equation of the entire market of ESO, Like WoW's Asian market, ESO has a Single player market that is 20 million that it can market to, instead of marketing to asia, it only has to market to its single player base. It will not have to try to steal subs from the MMO market, it will bring in subs from the Single Player market. Thus the Skyrim single player featuers you see in ESO.
I took the market of ESO, which is...
ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:
2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game.
2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.
17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.
The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.
The fact that 4 million Morrowind copies sold.
X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)
X millions migrating to ESO from other gaems.
PLUS:
RETENTION RATE
How well the retention rate you think this company can sustain with its updates and content expansions. Also considering its retention rate with its Single Player base as their first MMO ever. MMO player retention + ES fan player base retention.
PLUS:
ADVERTISMENT
Amount of global advertisement. Will they run an advertisement campaign the size of WoW's with celebs, ect. world wide.
EQUALS:
10 million subs by the end of the year
and then used this data to make this conclusion...
I'm looking at 2-3 million MMO players, and around 3-4 million Elder Scrolls single player fans (based off of the morrowind and oblivion player base) to start with. With PC and Consoles. Over the course of the year, we'll see 5 million more Single players who love ES, and MMO players looking to play a new game, will join ESO on consoles and PC easily.
Its really that simple.
Zenimax only has to do three things...
1. Keep the retention rate high with the high amount of content updates they promised. Keep the game looking modernized with updates to graphics, and continue to also modernize the game systems. Expand on quality of life of game and add housing. Maybe add a PVE Cyrodiil for an expansion.
2. Advertise heavily to their Skyrim single player base over this year, using celebs and any other social outlets. Like they did with the trailer they had, and the celebs voice overs, ect.
3. Keep making the game more and more like Skyrim to please more of its single player base. Something they have already been working on, with adding more interactable objects in the world then previous beta tests.
It's Morrowind, not 'Marrowind'. You've done that several times now. One would expect better from such an enthusiastic advocate.
It doesn't matter how many times you post your 'equation', it's still meaningless.
Perhaps, but why post anything at all if its meaningless. just move on. lol. And thanks for the typo correction.
In regards to those comments on WoW and their sub numbers:
WoW has around 7.4 million subs - Both ESO and Wildstar will reduce those numbers, and dont forget that Siege of Ogrimar is out for such a long time and there will be no new raid contend within the next 6 to 8 months before WOD is released.
WoW might take a blow that they have never felt before with such a long stretch without contend.
While i susepct ESO might score 3 million in their peak and Wildstar might hit 2 million i can already say these are my most optimistic scores for both games...
And lets be honest thats nothing to be ashamed for with so many choices out there both Free to play and buy to play.
Also Asian WoW players pay around 4 cent per hour.......not 10 cent....
This I agree with. 10 mill, 7.8 mill, doesn't matter, ESO won't get near that. If they are holding over 1 million subs a year from now the game will be considered a HUGE success.
Indeed, Cazneerg is 100% correct, if you assume that all of your subs are comning from MMO players, I have only 2-3 million listed as MMO players in my equation, with 3-4 millon actually coming from the Single player world at launch. while you can see that ESO is been heavily single playertized by Zenimax over this last year, points to marketing to single players. Single players and MMO player on consoles will be the main 5 million up to the end of the year, with possible millions coming from other games to join ESO in the MMO market.
So Cazneerg is 100% correct in saying there is not that many MMO players on the market right now, he does not realize the potention market and the already captured market of the single player market and MMO console crowd.
You are missing the point. ESO is expecting many of the subs to come from console players since they are porting to PS4 and Xbox One. That is why the game is so simplified in combat. It doesn't matter what the MMO market is, if they don't capture the console market it is dead.
This game will not pull players away from the games they have already subed to. WoW will not lose any more players than they already have. This game needs new players not old or veteran MMO players. You can tell by the type of combat they went to, an FPS -style in an MMO. No console players = dead ESO.
Just curious what you are trying to prove OP?
Your statement is made from pure guesswork. Over inflated estimates of the market, unrealistic pick-up rates, unrealistic retention rates, failure to take into account the differences between the SP and MMP markets....hell everything you are basing your statement on is done by sticking a finger in the air and calling it.
So seeing as you cannot prove anything and right or wrong isn't going to change anything, what is the point of this thread (Other then to simply bait and troll others into arguments for the sake of doing so which seems very likely from your replies...polite but troll bait none the less).
Aren't you ignoring some other big events for MMOs this year? Wildstar will prolly launch by this fall, WoW's next expansion, possible western release of Arche Age; all of these events will pull players from ESO. This is also assuming a smooth launch, fixed quest bugs and functional PvP. With so many options coming down the pipe, the first impression of ESO will be huge.....
Actually no I'm not, I just agreed with all of your points.
100% true, this is the main player base of ESO, its sub numbers will be atleast two times to three times as great as PC's.
It will pull only a few million max from other games over the next year, it wont pull all of them, that is correct. 2-3 million are the free-lancer MMO market for PC, those players will play ESO until they eat it up fully and their rentention rates will depend on how well the content is updated and expanded.
People are still here because it is like watching a train wreck; You know it is morbid but it is also fascinating and you can't help but stare.
These two games upcoming will compate with ESO's 2-3 million PC gamers and the ones that migrate to ESO from other games. Both of these games will not be on console and will not be competing for those players. So the impact will be small felt.
I couldn't possibly project how many out of those 2-3 million will leave, but that's where the retention rate comes in. Will ESO do whats needed to reteain the 2-3 million initial MMO PC gamers? It will be something to see. I think the announcement of housing and a PVE Cyrodiil might be needed to hang onto a lot of those subscribers against Arch Age.
I have my personal views on both Archage and Wildstar and their pull from ESO, I think Arch Age will be the biggest threat to ESO, but Idk how big of a threat that will be, remains to be seen closer to that date. Wildstar has a minimal effect because of the big differences in age groups both games are aiming for.
Archage will most likely take from ESO, and Wildstar will most likely take from EQ Next.