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My theory why MMOs are failing faster and harder
TheScavenger
Member EpicPosts: 3,321
Seems pretty obvious to me. But just my theory.
It isn't so much as the MMO genre dying out...seems like it actually is for REAL MMOs (not league of legends or crap like that, not MMOs)...but it is actually expected. I knew when MMOs first started, they'd rise in popularity...probably fast, but remain niche compared to other genres...but fall and fall hard.
Why? Because EVERYTHING does. Everything one can think of, from country to the latest fad to whatever...rises in popularity to eventually die. One day in the future, fantasy/sci-fi will probably be dead (as far as books go) and comics or comedy books or something will be what everyone reads. But then fantasy/sci-fi will make a comeback and not only be completely different and not the same story over and over (not saying it happens now, but it will eventually)...but entirely new and amazing compared to before.
And really? How many times can you repeat the same story? The same features? Eventually you have to come up with NEW, and not use any if barely any of the old. Why do I want to play a WoW style game? I can play WoW with vastly more content. Why do I want to play a game like UO? I can play UO any time. I don't want a clone of a clone of a clone of a clone...and this has what happened to the MMO genre. I expect something entirely new and breathtaking...not a lame WoW 2.0 or EVE 2.0 or anything else already out. I already can play those. Then there is ArcheAge, same as before...few things used from other games...and then combined...great...nothing new except they brought all features together.
My favorite MMO ever, Asheron's Call. Nothing ever like it afterwards. But I don't want anything like it. I'd rather have something NEW. I don't want AC 3.0 with same game but better graphics but far less content...you can't clone an MMO and make less content than what the MMO your cloning already has...otherwise better to choose one with more content...
Not every MMO of course is using old features and are trying new things. But those are still being developed, so one can't realistically say they are going to be breathtaking...cause they might be shit in the end or canceled (oh boy would the internet explode if Star Citizen was shit)
That isn't the only problem. And this new "freemium" or "free to play" has quickened the pace of death of MMOs and actually makes things worse. Why?
Because NOTHING is free. If someone tells you its free, it isn't...its a lie. You will pay the price for it in some way...pay more money (most freemiums cost more than an MMO year subscription...looking at you LOTRO), or worse quality service (common) and worse gameplay. And far less immersive with "BIG CASH SHOP BUTTON IN YOUR FACE".
SWTOR of course made a comeback, and is actually good now...but WAY more expensive and lame as hell as a free to play player (again NOTHING is free. If its free, its a lie.)
(edit)
and since people are going to nitpick this. While SWTOR found success in their freemium...most (maybe more on this forum might, but most don't) actually do not play for 100% free, so it isn't actually free. But that aside. MOST freemium games have short term success (LOTRO) with long term loss. I however believe overall, freemium hurts the consumer more than anything.
SWTOR being pay to play would be exact same game as free to play but cheaper...but because its "free" people go to it... here is the kicker...as a freemium its MORE expensive. But like anything in modern times, people think free is better, but it overall lowers quality and pay for it far more in other ways.
(end edit)
Now, even if...MMOs went back to their old roots. Most MMOs would still die. It is destined to do so. Why? The MMOs with huge success and are still alive today (maybe not population wise, but still running)...are small player wise. If MMOs stayed with the hardcore open world (AC) or hardcore themepark (EQ) or EVE...they'd still be dead, even if they were clones. No modern MMO player (very few that is) would want to play AC or EQ or EVE (this of course has a large population, but I believe EQ had about the same at its peak and AC did too)
MMOs can only be successful if they follow the same path of old MMOs. But they will not see 10+ million people playing them because no modern gamer wants those old MMOs...the MMO genre would become a very niche, but successful genre as it did before. Maybe with what EVE has, which is typical for oldschool style MMOs at their peak. And in truth, it will eventually...maybe 10 years...20 years...50 years even...will happen and then at that point, there will be a huge dead time of MMOs but remain niche and successful as in the past.
Then, something amazing will happen...like it does for everything...once MMOs die...and a long period of niche...they will rise and become greater than they could be right now.
For something greater to come along, it must die. If MMOs don't die as I predict, they will remain lame and be dumbed down more and more like most of the 1st world is becoming and become not an MMO anymore.
And this is true for every genre, and most things in life.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
Comments
Of course, one topic I didn't say anything about was kickstarter. Two reasons. One, my post was long enough as it was.
Two, and really the main reason...far too soon to know what kickstarter projects can do.
And for indie games and MMOs, most are lame copies of old games brought to a modern game...indie games clone each other as much as AAA games do. But they clone each other instead. And most end up being far worse than an AAA company game.
I however look forward to see how Star Citizen turns out....usually huge, ambitious projects...turn out they cut off 95% of the features they advertised (I'm looking at you Horizons, or now Istaria) for whatever reason...I have a feeling SC will have MANY features cut that they are talking about...every single company, or person that has HUGE ambitions (Spore is another example)...whose ever fault it is...the person or the company...matters not...huge ambitious games turn out with far less than advertised or great over exaggerations of the game.
However, Star Citizen sounds great. But sounding great and being great are two vastly different things.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
As long as suits are calling the shots, games will never be unique. They're all about copying previous success with some new gimmick to hype.
I think MMOs are on the way out also. What the genre needs is for game designers who have never even played an MMO and have the creative freedom to design the game from the ground up to make some MMOs. It's harder to come up with originality when you're too influenced by what others have made the genre into.
That is your personal opinion which is fine but it is incorrect to view it in the way that you are.
MMORPGs are like movies some are A grad blockbusters, some are B grade some are Bollywood, some are low budget independent and some fail to make the screen etc. it doesn't matter how they get there or what they are about, there will always be MMORPGs of all types. New ones will pop up and show innovation, others will follow a reliable format and cater to a larger audience, some will go a different path and try new things or cater to a specific smaller audience.
They are not failing either, why are so many people misled by this and where are you getting your information from?
If you spent the same amount of time in researching this information as you did writing that post, you would of been able to get your answer and save yourself some time posting.
MMORPGs and games in general, especially on PC, are on the rise and have been for many years, recently (like 2-3 years ago), PC games overtook Console games and continue to expand and grow that lead.
So why all these conspiracies and opinions and incorrect information on this topic?
This information is readily available and has even been posted on these forums recently. Utilise the search function and see for yourself.
nah .. others pay for you. You do know about the concept of "subsidizing" right? If whales are willing to subsidize your game, it is free.
Your flaw in logic is to assume EVERYONE has to pay. As long as SOME pays, it is free for others.
That means it isn't free, and comes at a cost that someone has to pay more. Which brings up, that eventually the ones paying for the free will eventually be unable to, and everyone loses and the MMO shuts down.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
Hmmm, who knew opinions could be wrong....
There's not MMOs of all types, there's MMOs of a few types. Another problem is the only "blockbuster" is WoW. Everything else is grade B or less.
Considering just about every game to release since WoW has gone free to play or hasn't met expectations or has flat out closed down, I'd say that's some pretty big failure. Not to mention, layoffs of their developers.
It is free except for the whales. I doubt players care about if it is "free" for anyone but themselves.
Nothing last forever anyway. A game will become boring (at least for me) long before it shuts down. There are plenty of other games out there.
I just skimmed your post OP to see if you made the case for them "failing faster and harder" before you went on to describe why. I wouldn't mind reading your theories in more detail and I'll be happy to give you my thoughts on it if you do but I am not convinced that they actually are.
I won't require the same evidence if you want to tell me why subscription based games aren't staying subscription based for long as I have seen that but those games that people like to claim have flopped like SWTOR for example, actually haven't flopped.
In so far as not having everything accessible in the game then yes. it is not free. However, if you have the knowledge of these limitations and are willing to play the game anyway, then it is 'free' for those that pursue that path.
If the 'whales' weren't willing to pay, whether it's for their entertainment, because they can't seem to help themselves (like gambling) or what not, then those playing for free wouldn't have a game to play. As it stands, they do.
True .. but so what.
a) Those games are free anyway ... so if they are gone, they are gone.
b) evidence suggests that there are enough whales to support many games. I don't see any a lot of the f2p closing down. Heck, TOR even made $200M+ in 2013.
I was doing a bit of research and stumbled upon the following forum thread. The first few posts are about Earth and Beyond failing, but the conversation quickly turns to why MMOs fail. I found it rather amusing that we're discussing the same things 10 years later with the only real difference being the addition of F2P.
http://www.bluesnews.com/cgi-bin/board.pl?action=viewthread&boardid=1&threadid=47762&id=0
Never said they would close, just pointed out that atm the whales are paying and playing so those games are free to play. You saw contention there?
I think what it is, atleast partially, is that some people get disappointed that games don't live up to the hype alot of the time and to be fair MMOs do generate alot of hype in the build up to launch. Than when people get disappointed they vent on forums such as this and it convinces alot of people that these games are more hated than they actually are. Some people don't even need that, they start venting as soon as they think the game won't live up to their expectations.
So in short I think the backlash to all the hype gives some people the idea that the entire genre is doomed.
and they are free for many but the whales atm. There is no contention.
MMOs fail because the new definition for MMO is "single player game from 1-?0, MOBA at the end game", or
"single player game from 1-?0, raiding at the end game".
MMOs are essentionally a combination of two different genres now, and there are better SPGs and FPS's and MOBAs out there than what any MMO can offer. Those who enjoy the latter part, will get bored in former and bypass it as quickly as possible, just like has happened in WoW. They even sell max level characters (almost) these days. Those who enjoy the SPG part, usually hate 'forced grouping' and get annoyed by social interaction from other players, or want to play with some RL-friend only. They love voiced story and cut-scenes, but when the story ends they quit and call the end game 'hardcore' or 'elitist grind'.
In those 'old-school MMOs' these elements were present, but they were mixed and balanced properly. There was a story and lore, but a player had always a reason to communicate with other people. You had to talk to someone if you wanted to trade for crafting mats or gear, or if you wanted to start a group for a quest or dungeon.
So, in my opinion MMOs are failing because the original idea of the genre has vanished, and got replaced with something else.
'Failing' such a misnomer, and a subjective point of view.
Mmo's are certainly changing. Morphing into different beasts than what they once were, however still giving pleasure to those playing it.
Not all Mmo's are popular, nor should they be. The amount of gamers grew almost exponentially in the last 15 years. No one can chart where the Mmo should be at this time, devs are experimenting, some trying things, others staying safe to what they believe works. Mmos are in their growing pains phase so to speak. That's my opinion anyway.
If anything, because of the sheer numbers of games out now and the diversity of gamers playing them, anything 'failing' is probably because those that feel this way cannot, or will not adapt to how the industry is changing.
Think of it more as the acid test, where you can only determine whether its an alkali or an acid is by using litmus paper.
People will tend to stick with games they enjoy playing, if they aren't having fun then they move onto the next or in some cases, previous game where they did or think they might have fun.
Ideas for MMO's are many, and while some might seem like a really cool and great idea, and you think wow i really must play that game, the difference between what sounds like a good idea, and how it works in practice can often be a very very different beast, and the only way to find out if its any good, can be how well its received, or not, by the players themselves, its no good saying 'this game is awesome because it has x y and z features, end of the day, if its not fun to play it doesn't matter how many gizmo's and doodads it has attached to it, players will move on.
Its not that players are not adapting to an evolving industry, its that sometimes some of those 'evolutions' are actually dead ends, the real evolution is where these 'dead ends' force the industry evolve in the right direction, in real terms, you have it the wrong way around, it is not that players will not adapt to the changing industry, its that the industry itself sometimes fails to adapt to what the players really are looking for, when games don't succeed, its because they are doing something wrong, not because players are 'playing it wrong' its an excuse that i particularly hate although its just one of a number of excuses that is trotted out to somehow explain why players are not playing a particular game, or abandon it after just a few weeks of gameplay, or in some cases, hours, the clue is, the players are not playing the game wrong, the game is just not good enough to make them want to play it.
Of course, some opinions can be wrong. Just because something is an opinion doesn't mean it can't be wrong.
If I told you that in my opinion, the Earth revolves around the moon, is my opinion right just because it's an opinion?
First of all, there are not a lot of single player RPGs which can offer you what MMOs offer you during the levelling experiecen. If you want a huge open world and want to play a couple of friends, you don't have too much choice. Most singleplayer RPGs are full of loading screens, teleporting from one world of the map to another and often you can't go back to a previous zone once you progressed through the story. Story driven singleplayer RPGs are quite different to the levelling experience in MMOs and to action RPGs.
How you could compare an RPG to an FPS is beyond me. PvP in RPGs and FPS are completely different. So no you can't say FPS are better for that cause they are just different. MOBAs are also quite a bit different.
In WoW a lot of people enjoyed the levelling experience and when the game came out the majority of people were enjoying it and not rushing to endgame. Now this has changed as a lot of people have actually done the levellnig experience a billion times.
People just have too much nostalgia about the oldschool MMOs. I mean they really were not that good. IF you listen to people, you would think that they were the most amazing thing on the planet. When in reality the vast majority of those MMO playerbase were people with lots and lots of spare time (some cynics may jokingly call them basement dwellers). This is why EQ was never popular. 300-400k people playing that game really makes it a very niche game. The reason was because of some of the flawed design of the game which involved unnecessary grind and meant that people with less than 8 hours a day of spare time need not play.
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
Indeed.
Every new MMO that tries something "new" and fails, simply reinforces the idea that players actually want WoW, but it just needs to be cleverly disguised and/or marketed.
How could it not ? The good ship WoW continues to sail on serenely above the wreckage of every MMO launched since 2004. Not even ONE of those titles could hold 10% of WoW's player numbers for more than a month or two. Sure, WoW is bleeding subs, but at the rate it's bleeding currently, the patient will quite likely survive another 10 years.
Players are speaking with their wallets, and that's the most universally understood language.
I disagree,
MMOs are made for short stays. level 1-2 Quest hub to 3-4, then 5-6 and so on. Follow a leaner path to the end.
With this, mmos are just games. Not living worlds full of players with a community.
FF14 is an example of a major let down :
Extreamely small zones.
Timer Dungeons ( I think 45 min ) what's with this crap ?
Dungeon finders
250 part SOLO quest line.
Dynamic play solo events all around the world.
Everything Mainstream was added to this game, and each and everyone of the examples kill community, and that makes them 30 day games......All other mmos are built the same. FF14 was just the best example of why mmos don't last.
This is the bottom line !!!!!!!!
New MMO die so fast because there's no reason to go back to a superficial F2P actionfest that you can solo.
Ppl stayed in EQ for over a decade, because of friends, not the game itself, the game simply forced you to make friends to survive.
It's not rocket science. Why do you go back to the same house every night, because of the ppl you care about, same with mmo.
First off, let me state that everything in this post is my opinion, nothing factual.
MMORPGs came into being with Meridian, UO, EQ, AC and some others. They pulled they majority of their customer base from existing solo CRPGs and pen-n-paper D&D players. The early experiences captured a good percentage of this player base. But this player base remained relative finite (my estimate: around 5 million players). As new companies appeared with new games, they competed with existing games for the same player base. The population stayed about the same. Everyone who was interested in playing an MMORPG was playing and MMORPG.
Until WoW. World of Warcraft pulled on its preexisting market of Warcraft (RTS) players. These people already played computer games from Blizzard and were familiar with the Warcraft universe. This was an opportunity for players to have new experiences with the game content they were familiar with. The MMORPG population base swelled to an estimated 15 million players.
But it remained static beyond that. More games entered the marketplace, competing for the gamers' money. Subscriptions, which implied a long-term commitment to a specific game, began to move about as new games appeared. Gamers were chasing their 'ideal', that game that really spoke to them. The f2p model became a response to this 'migratory account' phenomena that companies were seeing. The f2p model, along with their cash shops, reduced the long-term commitment, allowing companies to maintain (and build) their revenues in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
New games attempted to pull the same trick as WoW had. LotRO, various SW titles, Star Trek, Conan and others properties were used as the basis of games, each hoping to lure fans of that literary franchise into gaming. Some did, but they were mostly unsuccessful at tapping a vast, new (proprietary) player base. Reason? These franchises had no prior solid gamer base to draw from. They tried to lure in new players from movie fans or TV viewers or literature fans. Those that tried the gaming experience found it very different, and wandered away. The result, the new expensive licenses weren't paying the dividends that Blizzard's built-in market had.
EQN has some promise at drawing a built-in gaming market into the ranks of MMORPG players. Their target audience appears to be gamers who play other non-RPG games, like console games, FPS games, Minecraft, Farmville and the like. Will they succeed? Will the resulting EQN product be anything like an MMORPG that we've seen before? I don't know any of those answers, and I'm not sure that SOE knows either. They hope their efforts will pay off, but they're putting a lot of faith (and money) in their internal answer.
From a wider perspective, will the EQN players be real MMORPG players? Will the new glut of Minecraft convertees be interested in exploring any of the older MMORPG games? I can easily see EQN building a following similar to WoW, with a bunch of die-hard EQN players who aren't really interested in other games on the market (including new titles we haven't seen on the radar yet).
Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.
/signed
We need a Like button on these forums.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre