Originally posted by SpottyGekko Yawn...So WoW gained 3M subs around expac time and then lost them again 6 months later ? Entirely predictable, and no doubt expected by Blizzard (and the shareholders that understand the commodity they've invested in).WoW will now go back to slowly bleeding subs as it was before the expac. Perhaps it will dwindle to a "mere" 5.5M subs by year-end.
Actually the 10mil was reported in Dec 2014 - the 7.1 mil is from March of 2015 - so this loss is in fact over 3 months, not 6 as you state.
We have no idea what April was in terms of subs - my guess is they lost more.
their gametime for gold token will cushion them nicely. It's not in this current report but it will be in the next.
I'm a successful business owner, so I'm well aware of the implications of a large revenue drop within a single quarter.
However, It isn't as concerning as you seem to believe. If you honestly think they didn't plan for this in advance, then you are sorely mistaken.
What are they going to do about it? They already have the next expansion under development, and have for quite some time. They'll ride out the rest of the fiscal, and then reveal what they've been working on, which will pump up the playerbase again until we repeat this same scenario in another year or so.
They've been going strong for over a decade, they know exactly what to expect and how to proceed accordingly.
Will they have had plans for this? Yes and no.
Yes WoW's development is mapped out for months: there is a budget based on financial projections. With stretched targets and bonuses in place for hitting targets. And plans will be reviewed as well. And prior to the release of WoD there may - may - have been an identified risk that WoD might "fail" and an outline of what they would do if it did. Not sure though - not every company does "proper" risk management.
Woah did I say fail? Yes.
What do I mean by "fail"? As others have pointed out lots of companies would be ecstatic if they released a game and "only" got 3M (probably more) sales with some follow on subs.
Well pre-launch subs had risen (back) to 7.4M; with the launch they went to over 10M, now, a scant quarter later: 7.1M. Below the pre-WoD number of 7.4M. This hasn't been the case in the last 10 years. Put another way WoD three month retention rate is (less than) "zero".
And in that sense WoD has been a fail. The expectation - I think - will have been: expansion, surge in subs, decline back to pre-WoD levels over the course of 2015.
Now as you say Activision Blizzard will soldier on. And as you say they have plans: Call of Duty Online, Heroes of the Storm, Overwatch and Guitar Heroes Live. About WoW however .... there is a "life-cycle" management decision to make.
ILl keep with it all i have to do is buy a token or 2 and play when i want to for free so might as well keep with it tokens are only going for 23k hell thats easy to get
This was predictable, by anyone who saw the above charts from mmo-champion.
It will be nothing but a decline from now on, unless they pull a miracle expansion, which is highly unlikely for a 10 year old game.
Blizz killed off their two main protagonists, Arthas and Illidan, which i think was a mistake. Both of those characters were signature figures in the Warcraft franchise. Deathwing, Garrosh, and Warlords from an alternate universe, were just lame.
If they ever bring back the Challenging 5 man instances with rewards for our main characters ill be glad to resub. I didnt even bother buying WoD because I didnt care about Garrison and I hate LFR. Thats pretty much what the game has become now a day. I realy miss the good old day when servers were not merged too because the feeling of community was there and relationships were different. Its like if we were living in a small village ( before the linked server technology) and now we live down town Mexico.
If they are willing to eliminate LFR and bring back challenging and rewarding 5 man instances that requires coordination and CC, Their subs will go back up. Make a real copy cat of what made WoW successful and stop telling us its only nostalgia. Thats the bullshit story they keep telling us because they are too proud and dont want to go back to the roots. Make a Wotlk 2.0 but without the nerfs and look at the player base BOOM.
This was predictable, by anyone who saw the above charts from mmo-champion.
It will be nothing but a decline from now on, unless they pull a miracle expansion, which is highly unlikely for a 10 year old game.
Blizz killed off their two main protagonists, Arthas and Illidan, which i think was a mistake. Both of those characters were signature figures in the Warcraft franchise. Deathwing, Garrosh, and Warlords from an alternate universe, were just lame.
You mean based on the (linked) chart - without the last data point - you could have predicted the largest ever sub based decline in the history of the game?
Nah. If you were going off the graph you might say 9M to 9.5M.
Now several of us speculated that the fall might be much, much larger but not based on historic reasons.
Originally posted by Sigilaea Going from 10 million users to 7 million is like moving from a 20 room mansion to a 16 room mansion. Oh the horror, how will they survive now that it takes them an extra 2 months to make $1 Billion.
Originally posted by GolbezTheLion
So, basically, they lost what they gained and ended up back at the 6-7 million they were originally holding strong at pre-WoD?
Doesn't seem very grim at all, as that is still 6.0-6.5 mil higher than the majority of MMORPGs. Blizzard reigns supreme as usual, nobody is going to dethrone the juggernaut.
Corporations and shareholders don't think like this. No business that plans on success for the long haul thinks like this. This is what business think - they saw a 30% drop in a major revenue stream inside a single quarter. It's very concerning from a business perspective. They're thinking, what are we going to do about it.
And thats the problem. Corporations and shareholders only think short term, chasing the next dollar at the expense of the dream.
At some point someone will realize you will make more money if you make a game that is fun. We are not there yet.
Originally posted by Ringside If they are willing to eliminate LFR and bring back challenging and rewarding 5 man instances that requires coordination and CC, Their subs will go back up. Make a real copy cat of what made WoW successful and stop telling us its only nostalgia. Thats the bullshit story they keep telling us because they are too proud and dont want to go back to the roots. Make a Wotlk 2.0 but without the nerfs and look at the player base BOOM.
Great question. Why cant another publisher create a WotLK 2.0? At the end of the day its all just mechanics isn't it?
This was predictable, by anyone who saw the above charts from mmo-champion.
It will be nothing but a decline from now on, unless they pull a miracle expansion, which is highly unlikely for a 10 year old game.
Blizz killed off their two main protagonists, Arthas and Illidan, which i think was a mistake. Both of those characters were signature figures in the Warcraft franchise. Deathwing, Garrosh, and Warlords from an alternate universe, were just lame.
You mean based on the (linked) chart - without the last data point - you could have predicted the largest ever sub based decline in the history of the game?
Nah. If you were going off the graph you might say 9M to 9.5M.
Now several of us speculated that the fall might be much, much larger but not based on historic reasons.
I meant the long-term decline, not the amount of percentage between quarters.
Originally posted by Ringside If they are willing to eliminate LFR and bring back challenging and rewarding 5 man instances that requires coordination and CC, Their subs will go back up. Make a real copy cat of what made WoW successful and stop telling us its only nostalgia. Thats the bullshit story they keep telling us because they are too proud and dont want to go back to the roots. Make a Wotlk 2.0 but without the nerfs and look at the player base BOOM.
Great question. Why cant another publisher create a WotLK 2.0? At the end of the day its all just mechanics isn't it?
Because every WoW defender would scream "WoW CLONE" at the top of their lungs, as happens with every MMO release.
Originally posted by Ringside If they are willing to eliminate LFR and bring back challenging and rewarding 5 man instances that requires coordination and CC, Their subs will go back up. Make a real copy cat of what made WoW successful and stop telling us its only nostalgia. Thats the bullshit story they keep telling us because they are too proud and dont want to go back to the roots. Make a Wotlk 2.0 but without the nerfs and look at the player base BOOM.
Great question. Why cant another publisher create a WotLK 2.0? At the end of the day its all just mechanics isn't it?
Because every WoW defender would scream "WoW CLONE" at the top of their lungs, as happens with every MMO release.
WoW defender...most that scream it are WoW haters.
I'd forgotten to stop my auto sub but this has reminded me to do so. I love WoW but I feel it's currently at the edge of no return for me.
Like many other I resubbed during WoD after a couple of years away, found it mildly interesting but didn't hold me. Garrisons is OK but the fact that it's totally changed the crafting system by streamlining materials accessable to all had damaged the dedicated crafter and their ability to make decent economic gains. Also, IMO the garrison encourages antisocial behaviour by making it easy to just do your own thing. A number of people I know would have spent around 50% of their time in their garrison without interacting with others.
I understand it still appeals to many but for me It's a real pity to see these negative changes. I hope they can improve it but my prediction is that it will continue to decline at a quick rate even if they announce an expansion this Blizzcon.
I'd forgotten to stop my auto sub but this has reminded me to do so. I love WoW but I feel it's currently at the edge of no return for me.
Like many other I resubbed during WoD after a couple of years away, found it mildly interesting but didn't hold me. Garrisons is OK but the fact that it's totally changed the crafting system by streamlining materials accessable to all had damaged the dedicated crafter and their ability to make decent economic gains. Also, IMO the garrison encourages antisocial behaviour by making it easy to just do your own thing. A number of people I know would have spent around 50% of their time in their garrison without interacting with others.
I understand it still appeals to many but for me It's a real pity to see these negative changes. I hope they can improve it but my prediction is that it will continue to decline at a quick rate even if they announce an expansion this Blizzcon.
Define "interacting" with people. Played Eve and 70% of the time I did not interact cause I was doing the most boring mining in the world...does that make Eve a bad game. I spend my times in game chatting if I am waiting for something to happen, is that not interacting? Do I have to stand in a main city like a drone to "interact". AC I have to do a lot of solo grinding at times because I needed something or I knew a spot I wanted to keep secret...guess it was bad to.
I love how many of you just jump right in claiming what they should have done differently or what they are doing wrong!
Released November 22, 2004 and it was a fucking mess. But they always seem to reverberate.
Modern MMO's provide smoother release and can only put out as much content as they can on their first release,....NOTHING compared to what WoW has currently. Enough of you grab a tissue box and make your silly excuses of why you were tricked into buying another game, one right after another. One of my FAVORITEs! Oh,...oh..it's cartoony!!!
We're still talking about loads of people! It's a shame that you don't see so many people while leveling, the old quest grouping and mob camping was fun.
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Personally, I'm more curious to see those numbers after Heavensward drops. All wow is now is like a mobile game waiting for cooldowns everyday. Joy! /sarcasm
im out again too... really hoped it will last longer than Pands, but nope, all my friends are already gone too, and we're 2003/2004 vets, we come back every year for a month or two just for the sake of memories.
there where high hopes, Blizz is doing a lot of good decisions in D3, and same choices here would do a lot of good, achievements fully on account basis, epics and transmog tab bound to account, like heirlooms, Garrison account or at least faction wide, just bonus to number of followers based on how many 100lev chars You have... easy and simple moves that would make vets lives SO much easier...
without that its a horrible grind day after day on all chars just to keep them in a loop so they willbe helpfull for guild... tedious...
its not about a sub, im currently able to play for like a year or two even if i wouldnt earn 1gold just by buying tokens... simply have no reason to
willbe back in WoW for a month or two before next expansion just to finish this one, same as i did last time, but it propably willbe based on memories not on hype over new content (didnt have that since WotLK), and wont even last as long as this time if Blizz wont start making moves toward those "account wide" settings.
sorry for the long rant and my poor english, its my 3rd language and didnt really have a need to type this much in it for a long time, im mostly on "receiving end"
Be Who You Are and Say What You Feel Because Those Who Mind Don't Matter and Those Who Matter Don't Mind. Dr.Seuss
I love how many of you just jump right in claiming what they should have done differently or what they are doing wrong!
Released November 22, 2004 and it was a fucking mess. But they always seem to reverberate.
Modern MMO's provide smoother release and can only put out as much content as they can on their first release,....NOTHING compared to what WoW has currently. Enough of you grab a tissue box and make your silly excuses of why you were tricked into buying another game, one right after another. One of my FAVORITEs! Oh,...oh..it's cartoony!!!
It's a fucking video game!
You had this
Bet you never beat Pitfall.
"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"
The big disappointment for me in WoD had to be Ashran. I was really hoping it would turn out to be something akin to DAoC's frontiers, a known place for pvp'ers to gather for world pvp with or without some kind of side objective. It ended up being a complete joke where one faction would do side quests while the other pushed to the end without being contested. After you stripped away all the bells and whistles there was really nothing to do in WoD. You had maybe 5 minutes of garrison maintenance a day. Capping conquest points for the week took an hour or two and after that all you had was your raid difficulty of choice, which was another 2-3 hours. Add that up and you had about 5 hours of actual content a week to do, any more than that and you were just kidding yourself. The market is ripe for another good MMO to come up and take the reins. I'd bet that a good portion of the 7 million remaining are only playing WoW because the time they've invested makes them feel obligated to keep playing and there just isn't anything else out that interests them.
Comments
Actually the 10mil was reported in Dec 2014 - the 7.1 mil is from March of 2015 - so this loss is in fact over 3 months, not 6 as you state.
We have no idea what April was in terms of subs - my guess is they lost more.
their gametime for gold token will cushion them nicely. It's not in this current report but it will be in the next.Pi*1337/100 = 42
Will they have had plans for this? Yes and no.
Yes WoW's development is mapped out for months: there is a budget based on financial projections. With stretched targets and bonuses in place for hitting targets. And plans will be reviewed as well. And prior to the release of WoD there may - may - have been an identified risk that WoD might "fail" and an outline of what they would do if it did. Not sure though - not every company does "proper" risk management.
Woah did I say fail? Yes.
What do I mean by "fail"? As others have pointed out lots of companies would be ecstatic if they released a game and "only" got 3M (probably more) sales with some follow on subs.
Well pre-launch subs had risen (back) to 7.4M; with the launch they went to over 10M, now, a scant quarter later: 7.1M. Below the pre-WoD number of 7.4M. This hasn't been the case in the last 10 years. Put another way WoD three month retention rate is (less than) "zero".
And in that sense WoD has been a fail. The expectation - I think - will have been: expansion, surge in subs, decline back to pre-WoD levels over the course of 2015.
Now as you say Activision Blizzard will soldier on. And as you say they have plans: Call of Duty Online, Heroes of the Storm, Overwatch and Guitar Heroes Live. About WoW however .... there is a "life-cycle" management decision to make.
ILl keep with it all i have to do is buy a token or 2 and play when i want to for free so might as well keep with it tokens are only going for 23k hell thats easy to get
http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/4878-WoW-Down-to-7-1-Million-Subscribers
This was predictable, by anyone who saw the above charts from mmo-champion.
It will be nothing but a decline from now on, unless they pull a miracle expansion, which is highly unlikely for a 10 year old game.
Blizz killed off their two main protagonists, Arthas and Illidan, which i think was a mistake. Both of those characters were signature figures in the Warcraft franchise. Deathwing, Garrosh, and Warlords from an alternate universe, were just lame.
You mean based on the (linked) chart - without the last data point - you could have predicted the largest ever sub based decline in the history of the game?
Nah. If you were going off the graph you might say 9M to 9.5M.
Now several of us speculated that the fall might be much, much larger but not based on historic reasons.
And thats the problem. Corporations and shareholders only think short term, chasing the next dollar at the expense of the dream.
At some point someone will realize you will make more money if you make a game that is fun. We are not there yet.
Great question. Why cant another publisher create a WotLK 2.0? At the end of the day its all just mechanics isn't it?
I meant the long-term decline, not the amount of percentage between quarters.
Because every WoW defender would scream "WoW CLONE" at the top of their lungs, as happens with every MMO release.
Star Citizen – The Extinction Level Event
4/13/15 > ELE has been updated look for 16-04-13.
http://www.dereksmart.org/2016/04/star-citizen-the-ele/
Enjoy and know the truth always comes to light!
WoW defender...most that scream it are WoW haters.
I'd forgotten to stop my auto sub but this has reminded me to do so. I love WoW but I feel it's currently at the edge of no return for me.
Like many other I resubbed during WoD after a couple of years away, found it mildly interesting but didn't hold me. Garrisons is OK but the fact that it's totally changed the crafting system by streamlining materials accessable to all had damaged the dedicated crafter and their ability to make decent economic gains. Also, IMO the garrison encourages antisocial behaviour by making it easy to just do your own thing. A number of people I know would have spent around 50% of their time in their garrison without interacting with others.
I understand it still appeals to many but for me It's a real pity to see these negative changes. I hope they can improve it but my prediction is that it will continue to decline at a quick rate even if they announce an expansion this Blizzcon.
Define "interacting" with people. Played Eve and 70% of the time I did not interact cause I was doing the most boring mining in the world...does that make Eve a bad game. I spend my times in game chatting if I am waiting for something to happen, is that not interacting? Do I have to stand in a main city like a drone to "interact". AC I have to do a lot of solo grinding at times because I needed something or I knew a spot I wanted to keep secret...guess it was bad to.
I love how many of you just jump right in claiming what they should have done differently or what they are doing wrong!
Released November 22, 2004 and it was a fucking mess. But they always seem to reverberate.
Modern MMO's provide smoother release and can only put out as much content as they can on their first release,....NOTHING compared to what WoW has currently. Enough of you grab a tissue box and make your silly excuses of why you were tricked into buying another game, one right after another. One of my FAVORITEs! Oh,...oh..it's cartoony!!!
It's a fucking video game!
You had this
Before you had
For example progression of garrison being more hands on and quicker, and offering more function. More than it offers atm.
Pvp and balance. It's not bad but it's not great. It's average enough that a person will want to alt or try something else.
Improve alting for pvp and raiding.
Write bad things that are done to you in sand, but write the good things that happen to you on a piece of marble
My FFXIV ARR referral code for new EU accounts: 5JPF7ZQ3
Step into the amazing world of Eorzea! Use this reference code on a new account and we'll both get goodies for it!
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im out again too... really hoped it will last longer than Pands, but nope, all my friends are already gone too, and we're 2003/2004 vets, we come back every year for a month or two just for the sake of memories.
there where high hopes, Blizz is doing a lot of good decisions in D3, and same choices here would do a lot of good, achievements fully on account basis, epics and transmog tab bound to account, like heirlooms, Garrison account or at least faction wide, just bonus to number of followers based on how many 100lev chars You have... easy and simple moves that would make vets lives SO much easier...
without that its a horrible grind day after day on all chars just to keep them in a loop so they willbe helpfull for guild... tedious...
its not about a sub, im currently able to play for like a year or two even if i wouldnt earn 1gold just by buying tokens... simply have no reason to
willbe back in WoW for a month or two before next expansion just to finish this one, same as i did last time, but it propably willbe based on memories not on hype over new content (didnt have that since WotLK), and wont even last as long as this time if Blizz wont start making moves toward those "account wide" settings.
sorry for the long rant and my poor english, its my 3rd language and didnt really have a need to type this much in it for a long time, im mostly on "receiving end"
Be Who You Are and Say What You Feel Because Those Who Mind Don't Matter and Those Who Matter Don't Mind. Dr.Seuss
Bet you never beat Pitfall.
"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"