Population Growth & The Learning Curve

wmmarcellino · June 2015

Dropping the box fee and open trials has meant a big increase in the population. General chat is now full of newb questions, to the point where trying to help people means you can't play--there's just a constant stream of "Where do you train <blank>?", "How does <this> work?", and so on. Even a week ago I could quickly pop in a response while running around or whatever, but the volume of newbs is too high for that now.

This is very good in one sense. Population is definitely going up, and that overall increase is also visible in the number of new recruits we've had in our settlement. But it still points to how steep the learning curve is. Like "Dreadnaught" is a very cool word, but in no way conveys to a novice "Heavy weapons and heavy/medium armor." Conceptually, most of us already have the idea of a "class" trainer--whether you played WOW/EQ or tabletop D&D, the pre-existing idea is that if you cleric needs to train, you should find someone who trains clerics.

But since PFO doesn't have classes--since training is clustered by skills--light weapons and armor, heavy weapons and armor, divine abilities, divine spells, etc.--people are just confused as hell. The idea that your cleric needs to train for abilities at the Temple, for spells at the Seminary, and weapons/armor at the Dreadnaught, is just completely out of the blue. This conceptual difficulty is made worse by naming--there is no pre-existing given knowledge/new knowledge link to help novice players link "heavy weapons/armor" to "Dreadnaught." But naming the trainer "The Heavy Weapons/Armor" kinda sucks away the fantasy setting.

Not sure how to get around this tension.

Bluddwolf · June 2015

Yes there are more new users than previously, and that is a good thing. I still view them as unhatched eggs, and not yet chickens to be counted. It was still a good idea to get rid of box price.

As for nomenclature of the different schools, I'm but sure if that is a real issue to be concerned about. It is not that difficult to figure out "Where is what".

Thedip · June 2015

I think that it is a good indication that the game is not ready for a large influx of new players. A poor initial experience can put people off a game, no matter how good it is or destined to become.

Good luck with PFO.

Dip

Slapshot1188 · June 2015

Originally posted by wmmarcellino

Dropping the box fee and open trials has meant a big increase in the population

Originally posted by Bluddwolf
Yes there are more new users than previously, and that is a good thing. I still view them as unhatched eggs, and not yet chickens to be counted. It was still a good idea to get rid of box price.

Yup.. it was a good idea:

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/432828/Some-Advice.html

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/6668977

+ multiple unofficial suggestions to do the same over the past 6 months.

They would fare well to take the rest. It will be interesting to see how many people stay after the trial and actually sub. There were nearly 10k accounts just from the Kickstarter alone. the game just hasn't been able to RETAIN people. Has it now progressed to a point that will change? I guess we will see in a few weeks

Also wanted to add:

It appears that Lisa Stevens is taking a more active role in PFO (and Ryan seems to be deferring to her). She is certainly spending a significant portion of her time trying to expose the Pathfinder TT players to it. Given the nature of the game and how very different it is from the TT I have my suspicions about how that could boomerang but we will see. I think having her take a more active role certainly won't hurt and if she can bring a more realistic business plan it would certainly help. I suspect she was the driving force behind the decision to drop the box fee and the "Buddy Key" trial system.

Bluddwolf · June 2015

Speaking of population, I just finished a 10 day alpha and that particular game obviously breaks from the mythical "industry standard" by allowing you to see how many active players there are via a leader board. This is not a PvP leader board, it is one for tracking fame, and that is a stat that all players accumulate. Since all players only have one character per account, each character on the leasder board represents an account.

Next week a larger population alpha phase will begin and we expect to see 5000+ in that phase.

AndiusMeuridiar · June 2015

You need like a 1-2 page guide that quickly gives everyone a rough understanding of the most basic aspects the game and gives built in links to a lot more specific information / other good guides.

I haven't looked at a PFO guide in a few months but last time I did I found them to be poorly organized massive walls of text and the wiki was missing a lot of REALLY critical information.

Nothing is going to replace players willing to explain the game to people but guides that are quicker/easier to digest will take a lot of pressure of that, and GOOD wikis are the most crucial tool for players who kind of starting to get it but still have a lot of questions and even veterans who aren't up to date on the latest changes.

______

LOL Bluddwolf? Someone called it an industry standard to hide population numbers?

News flash for them:

There are 15,417 players currently playing EVE Online:

http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

584 people are playing Wurm Online right now:

http://forum.wurmonline.com

And where do you think they got the data for this chart?

https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http://mmgaming.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/MMO-subscribers-chart-1024x659.png&f=1

The fact PFO has yet to setup a way to tell how many players are online or reveal the number of subscribers says one thing and one thing only. Those numbers don't look good for them.

Rusque · June 2015

"Heavy arms and armor Trainer" would actually be a good subtitle.

NAME DREADNAUGHT

_{Subtitle Heavy Weapons & Armor Trainer}

There, keeps the flavor, adds descriptor.

killion81 · June 2015

In my opinion, it's the game's job to introduce players to all of the systems they will need to use to play. If it is not clear how to proceed, the game has failed the player. If I were giving recommendations to the PFO developers, it would be to make sure your new player experience is solid. New players will always have questions, but they should be *stupid* questions that the game tutorial phase has already answered.

Bluddwolf · June 2015

Yes Andius, Ryan argues that it is an industry standard to not reveal subscription numbers. He further added that EvE was an outlier case. Forget about the fact that EvE arguably deserves the perception of being the establisher of what the "industry standard" should be for open world sandbox MMOs.

There are several, even dozens, of MMOS that show indications of their population density, even if not numerically presented.

If you log into your generic MMO that had multiple servers, they will be tagged with a Heavy, Medium or Low population. If you have 15 servers and 10 of them are Heavy populated, you have a heavily populated MMO.

Heretique · June 2015

Glad to see Ryan making some decent decisions. Hope it fares well.

wmmarcellino · June 2015

I don't know what the retention rate is overall for this new wave of players. I'm assuming it's lower than 100% and higher than 0%, so that this boost in new players is also a boost in the effective playbase. I know about half of the new joins in our huild are paying/playing beyond the trial, but that's not a representative sample--to have joined a settlement is a kind of self-selection for social engagement and help. But it certainly seems like a good move overall to have made trying the game free.

I agree with those of you pointing out how rough the new player experience is. I think it's the most serious problem in the game--way more of a problem than the graphics. But I also think there's a genuine tension with improving/introducing game mechanics and assets. On the one hand, not concentrating on the new player experience hurts the game--how many thousands of people installed, logged in, and after one session were like "This makes no fucking sense" and never logged in again? On the other hand, not concentrating on developing the game would be a huge problem--one of the reasons those of us who play do play is because every few weeks a substantive new patch comes in that fleshes the game out in some dimension, and that has earned our trust. Goblinworks promised us they would work hard to develop the game, and the fact is they keep delivering on that promise.

Maybe it makes sense for the patch after 10, once we have this big change and lose the towers, for GW to focus on the new player experience.

Bluddwolf · June 2015

New Player Experience is an extremely important aspect of a game, but it is also subject to "follow the bouncing ball" effect as well.

I have played games that had excellent NPE that was followed by a massive content hole in the level 40 range.

I have played games like PFO, who's NPE is kind of rough and along with its MVP mentality, it is having retention problems.

I have played games like EvE, who had a steep learning curve at first and then had changed the NPE several times over the years.

Bluddwolf · June 2015

Originally posted by AndiusMeuridiar

LOL Bluddwolf? Someone called it an industry standard to hide population numbers?

The fact PFO has yet to setup a way to tell how many players are online or reveal the number of subscribers says one thing and one thing only. Those numbers don't look good for them.

A follow up on this...

Albion Online just launched its Summer Alpha (Day 1 head start) at 6:00 AM (EST) on a Monday morning, and there are over 1600 players (each player only has one character).

This head start is for those that paid $100 for the Legendary Package.

The Alpha Day 2 will allow those that paid $50 for the Epic Package to enter.

I will not take any guess as to how many will be in game by tomorrow evening, safe to say this is Pathfinder's first major competition.

Goblin Works needs to do a lot more, and faster, and most likely change some of their systems to be more open world PVP friendly.

Loktofeit · June 2015

Originally posted by Bluddwolf
Yes Andius, Ryan argues that it is an industry standard to not reveal subscription numbers. He further added that EvE was an outlier case. Forget about the fact that EvE arguably deserves the perception of being the establisher of what the "industry standard" should be for open world sandbox MMOs.

There are several, even dozens, of MMOS that show indications of their population density, even if not numerically presented.

If you log into your generic MMO that had multiple servers, they will be tagged with a Heavy, Medium or Low population. If you have 15 servers and 10 of them are Heavy populated, you have a heavily populated MMO.

Are you trying to suggest that those population assignments give any indication as to the actual population?

"If you have 15 servers and 10 of them are Heavy populated, you have a heavily populated MMO."

I guess the ploy actually works. How many is "Heavy", Bluddwolf?

Bluddwolf · June 2015

Originally posted by Loktofeit
Originally posted by Bluddwolf
Yes Andius, Ryan argues that it is an industry standard to not reveal subscription numbers. He further added that EvE was an outlier case. Forget about the fact that EvE arguably deserves the perception of being the establisher of what the "industry standard" should be for open world sandbox MMOs.

There are several, even dozens, of MMOS that show indications of their population density, even if not numerically presented.

If you log into your generic MMO that had multiple servers, they will be tagged with a Heavy, Medium or Low population. If you have 15 servers and 10 of them are Heavy populated, you have a heavily populated MMO.

Are you trying to suggest that those population assignments give any indication as to the actual population?

"If you have 15 servers and 10 of them are Heavy populated, you have a heavily populated MMO."

I guess the ploy actually works. How many is "Heavy", Bluddwolf?

From my looking around it would appear that Heavy equals somewhere above 2000 and below 5000. The point is not really the exact numbers but the estimation and perception.

That at and the fact that it is patently false that it is an industry standard not to reveal subscription numbers or server / game populations.

My most recent example of Albion Online is further proof of that.

Loktofeit · June 2015

Originally posted by Bluddwolf
Originally posted by Loktofeit
Originally posted by Bluddwolf
Yes Andius, Ryan argues that it is an industry standard to not reveal subscription numbers. He further added that EvE was an outlier case. Forget about the fact that EvE arguably deserves the perception of being the establisher of what the "industry standard" should be for open world sandbox MMOs.

There are several, even dozens, of MMOS that show indications of their population density, even if not numerically presented.

If you log into your generic MMO that had multiple servers, they will be tagged with a Heavy, Medium or Low population. If you have 15 servers and 10 of them are Heavy populated, you have a heavily populated MMO.

Are you trying to suggest that those population assignments give any indication as to the actual population?

"If you have 15 servers and 10 of them are Heavy populated, you have a heavily populated MMO."

I guess the ploy actually works. How many is "Heavy", Bluddwolf?

From my looking around it would appear that Heavy equals somewhere above 2000 and below 5000. The point is not really the exact numbers but the estimation and perception.

That at and the fact that it is patently false that it is an industry standard not to reveal subscription numbers or server / game populations.

My most recent example of Albion Online is further proof of that.

You really think most MMO servers run up to 5k people? "From my looking around" is interesting, because there's nothing out there to indicate what 'heavy' means, so either you're making things up to support your position or you really have no idea what you are looking at or talking about.

As to your 'fact', it IS pretty much industry standard to not reveal sub numbers: SirBruce, SuperData Research, IDC, EEDAR and almost every poster here disagree with your fact. There may be others.

Wizardry · June 2015

I can say this,it is not about the learning curve but more about the interface.I found the interface extremely cumbersome making the learning curve way harder than it should be.

I will use one example from early game,gathering your wood or Yewlogs or something then clicking the shed door.

I am perfectly ok with no hand holding but clicking a shed door is not something would think of in a game that really does not utilize 3D structures,every building i saw was just a 2D structure.Ok no problem,it is right there,we have not explored that much yet,so we might all click the door.

Now it clearly stated something about clicking the middle or something,then your recipe will show in the top left corner....ummm nope,so such recipe involving that Yew logs or whatever they were.Matter of fact you can click any of the like 5-6 screens within that interface and none of them give you any answers to what the heck you are suppose to do.

The game basically reminds me a lot of FFXIV on release day,it needs a lot more work on the interface and text guides.A lot of times they are perfectly fine but sometimes,your just like what the heck are they talking about,especially when using non common terminology.

Think of it like ummm a Linkshell in FFXI,nobody outside of the game would know wtf you are talking about,everyone thinks GUILDS.Or like everyone in game knows what a Chocobo is,you don't expect any new player from Wow to know,so you need to explain it a BIT.I just used those examples from another game because i could not remember the examples from within PO,my point is it falls under the same premise.

Thebeasttt · June 2015

Even the fanboi's on the PFO forums think the game isn't ready. That means the game is as far from ready as the east is to the west.

wmmarcellino · June 2015

Wizardry, I think everything you said is spot on. It makes sense if you already have expertise, but as a newb, you have nothing already known to tie to the new information. It's my biggest beef with the game, and my main critique of the development. A prime example is keywords--you have exactly same-named keywords for armor and weapons that are utterly distinct and unrelated mechanically. That's a mind-bogglingly user-unfriendly design choice.

[Deleted User] · June 2015

The user and all related content has been deleted.

Bluddwolf · June 2015

Originally posted by Loktofeit
You really think most MMO servers run up to 5k people? "From my looking around" is interesting, because there's nothing out there to indicate what 'heavy' means, so either you're making things up to support your position or you really have no idea what you are looking at or talking about.

As to your 'fact', it IS pretty much industry standard to not reveal sub numbers: SirBruce, SuperData Research, IDC, EEDAR and almost every poster here disagree. There may be others.

Actually I said less than 5000 and more than 2000, but I did see some data that WoW had servers with upwards of 10,000 per server.

When end you say "there is nothing to indicate", that tells me you didn't bother to look. There are comments on this very website that indicates server capacity as it relates to the terms Low, Medium , High and Full.

When I wrote "From my looking around", I was being quite literal. I actually looked at several sources. Some were vague; some were estimates; and some were precise ratios or total numbers.

Honestly, I don't know who your list of users are, never heard of them. They may be great people, with their own opinions, but nothing more in my mind as far as the argument goes.

As a follow up, Albion Online, has over 6487 players who have earned 10 fame or more.

Loktofeit · June 2015

Originally posted by Bluddwolf
Actually I said less than 5000 and more than 2000, but I did see some data that WoW had servers with upwards of 10,000 per server.

When end you say "there is nothing to indicate", that tells me you didn't bother to look. There are comments on this very website that indicates server capacity as it relates to the terms Low, Medium , High and Full.

When I wrote "From my looking around", I was being quite literal. I actually looked at several sources. Some were vague; some were estimates; and some were precise ratios or total numbers.

Honestly, I don't know who your list of users are, never heard of them. They may be great people, with their own opinions, but nothing more in my mind as far as the argument goes.

As a follow up, Albion Online, has over 6487 players who have earned 10 fame or more.

Quoting for excellence.

Octagon7711 · June 2015

If they don't have one already, they need to have a help channel in chat. There are a few games that have them and it's nice to have a place to go when you just don't know what to do. I'm sure guides will come out and there are probably out somewhere already to refer new players to for additional info. Sounds like this game could use a mentor program.

[Deleted User] · June 2015

The user and all related content has been deleted.

Bluddwolf · June 2015

Originally posted by Loktofeit
Originally posted by Bluddwolf
Actually I said less than 5000 and more than 2000, but I did see some data that WoW had servers with upwards of 10,000 per server.

When end you say "there is nothing to indicate", that tells me you didn't bother to look. There are comments on this very website that indicates server capacity as it relates to the terms Low, Medium , High and Full.

When I wrote "From my looking around", I was being quite literal. I actually looked at several sources. Some were vague; some were estimates; and some were precise ratios or total numbers.

Honestly, I don't know who your list of users are, never heard of them. They may be great people, with their own opinions, but nothing more in my mind as far as the argument goes.

As a follow up, Albion Online, has over 6487 players who have earned 10 fame or more.

Quoting for excellence.

Looking at Superdata Research, it is clear that the free to play model generates from 2x to 4x the revenue of the pay to play model.

Do you also believe that there is no connection between the low population in PFO, to its continued reliance on a subscription based model?

AndiusMeuridiar · July 2015

Success is not an industry standard for MMOs. Most MMOs fall well short of expectations. You have WoW putting their data about subscriptions in ads because they are king of the hill. You have EVE posting online player data in the log in data because their online players is impressive. Albion and Wurm aren't ashamed of their data because they are exceeding the expectations for games on their scale.

Ryan buries the sub data and calls it a "standard" because the data is bad and he knows it. Sure it's a standard. A standard for failures.

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Population Growth & The Learning Curve

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"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey

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Population Growth & The Learning Curve

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"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey