Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
[Column] General: Five Pointed Questions On The Future Of The MMOG Genre
SBFord
Former Associate EditorMember LegendaryPosts: 33,129
Although the modern MMOG era is usually regarded as having begun less than two decades ago, the category has come a very long way in this time span. It has gone from a tiny, virtually unknown niche to a genre that counts millions of regular players and generates billions of dollars in revenue. There's also every reason to anticipate continuing growth. That said, the future isn't completely clear. What lies ahead will be determined by how various questions and issues are addressed.
Read more of Richard Aihoshi's The List: Five Pointed Questions on the Future of the MMOG Genre.
)
Comments
Will the MMORPG category be overtaken by other types of MMOGs?
Sure looks like it....and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I would've been set for life if Digimon Masters Online wasn't such a joke. Game looks great, but there is literally no content.
Now, which one of you will adorn me today?
It's important to be able to see short and medium term trends for what they are, and not mistake them for evolution when you are making predictions.
MMO's are currently viewed by the management of the larger companies as a way to milk money out of group-thinking younger people. Obsessed with year on year gains and other corporate nonsense, the games they make will be designed with little innovation and tend towards simplicity rather than diversity. They leverage the herd mentality and the particular metagame that arises from this sort of player in order to squeeze profits out of their cash shops. As long as these corporations can appeal to kids who want to fight with each other and brag more than they want to actually play a game, the genre will suffer.
Within the next 5 years there will be a new generation fully in the prime target zone for the video game industry. They will replace Gen Y/"Millenials" as the new courted demographic. Where Gen Y is group oriented and belligerent, the younger generation will be more individualist and seek different kinds of experiences. This is because they have been raised largely by Gen X (instead of the Baby Boomers, like Gen Y was).
Right now games like DOTA and League of Legends are king because they appeal to Gen Y. In a few years there will be a new core demographic, and new types of games. This dumbing down and consolidation of game types is a short term trend, not a long term future for the gaming industry. If you look at the number of little Indie projects you can already see the hunger and drive to create something new. But MMO is not synonymous with "multiplayer", and attempts to rewrite definitions really don't wash. There will be a new generation soon, and MMO will regain its former meaning.
My two cents on this whole deal:
1) I am glad to see consoles getting some serious air time, be it for MMOGs or full-fledged MMORPGs. I don't play ESO but am glad to see it doing (apparently) so well on XB1 and PS4. I like my PC also, but PCs are not some "master race" or "superior" gaming platforms. Consoles have been very popular for a long time for several good reasons, and no matter how much hatred and vitriol is spit out by neckbeards who can't see past their monitors, consoles are going to remain popular, and they deserve good MMO options. No, their graphics will not exceed those of $900 GPUs, but I quite enjoy gaming on my 50-inch plasma TV, thank you very much.
2) I don't know that we are seeing so much of a "lack of innovation" in MMORPGs, as we are seeing the rather sad results of a generation that is being raised to be dependent upon the Internet, worship their cell phones, eschew personal interaction in favor of idiocy like Twitter, and not read books ever. Just my opinion here, but I believe there is a strong correlation betwixt the decline of manners and decency in this society, and the fact that over half of the adults in the US read less than one book per year, and the fact that so many people have no idea what it's like to shake someone's hand and meet them because they are too busy checking their Facebook pages.
I said all of that to say that this generation seems to be self-absorbed and entitled to the point of never being satisfied with anything, and this attitude is unfortunately carrying over to the gaming industry. Where we used to simply find games we liked and play them, warts and all, now shortcomings are being lamented as "failures", and games that people simply don't like are bashed by people who don't even play them. I feel sorry for game developers nowadays, honestly. The technology exists to make some wondrous games, and there are lots of them out there, but you have to cut through a hell of a lot of noise to find them.
"Why would I want to loose a religion upon my people? Religions wreck from within - Empires and individuals alike! It's all the same." - God Emperor of Dune
The fourth generation of MMOG will be the overhaul of the FTP system. What does the spending / cash shop using portion of the FTP community want most? Simple, P2W and no P4F gamers. The sole reason that P4F gamers think they can be allowed to play is because they bring life to otherwise empty games. Both developer and the spending public want these freeloader gone. That’s why AI (server side bots) will be replacing P4F gamers in F2P games. The AI will be un-identified and indistinguishable from Real Life Players in play style or communication. This will be B2P (2.0 now with even more P2W and no P4F).
The spending player may find themselves on a 40 player raid, lead by an AI, and be the only Real Life Player. As for the P4F gamers, once they have identified themselves, they will be excluded from all servers and forums.
Console development is a buy in system, meant to fight software piracy. In the minds of Consoles, F2P is another form of Piracy. Like the reselling of used games, that all consoles are still trying to fight. If retailer X wants to resell used game, why should they allowed to sell new games? The majority of console gamers are all about the lowest price point. This is why they won't being playing any subscription, Cash shop, or high ticket games. The minority will play those games on PC with better controls.
An XYAB (four skill) MMOG can be made, by dumbing down a 60+ skill system PC MMOG. And it will happen. It will most like be a DO key(1 skill system) with the server deciding contextually what the player wants to do, and do it. It will be the SkyWitch MMOG that every console gamer ever wanted.Boy: Why can't I talk to Him?
Mom: We don't talk to Priests.
As if it could exist, without being payed for.
F2P means you get what you paid for. Pay nothing, get nothing.
Even telemarketers wouldn't think that.
It costs money to play. Therefore P2W.
How much of the future lies on consoles?
There is no practical reason why MMO's should not be on consoles. Consoles are just dedicated gaming machines PC's now. It is also an established market that has been grossly underserved. I would expect all major MMO's to want to support consoles.
Will the MMORPG category be overtaken by other types of MMOGs?
It already has. There are more MMO (non RPG's) being played than MMORPGs already today. This will only increase over time.
Are we likely to see a new generation of MMOGs or MMORPGs any time soon?
I would not expect a new generation of games, but I do believe we have understated the generational gap with new MMO's like LoL and Hearthcraft.
Is innovation in serious decline or possibly even dying?
Innovation is happening just as fast as before, but the MMORPG market is not where it has been happening. It is now going backwards in order to explore a different path. There may be some innovation coming from this in the next 5 years.
How much of the market will free to play represent?
F2P will be the dominant business method. I would expect it to be 90% + (if it is not already).
I would say that MMORPG'#s have gone through 3 generations, pre-Wow - the games that WoW largely borrowed from, WoW-Era - where many games attempted to replicate WoW's formula & Post WoW where games were trying to break the WoW mould and the MMOG really began to be a part of the market in a big way.
For a "4th -Gen" MMORPG I think of EQNext as being the lead-contender, with its AI, voxel-engine, destructible environments, procedural generation & player crafted content plans.
For MMOG I don't think the "generational" distinction matters anything like as much as it has much more "systems" freedom whereas the vast majority of MMORPG follow very similar systems to the originators of the genre, particularly EverQuest or game that stole its crown, Word of Warcraft.
Producers do know how to create the quality game, they just need to figure out the game design.
I think more mmo's need to build on what Archeage did, only don't suck. That game was the most fun I have had in an MMO since the old days. It is the only MMO that had me thinking about it at work since I can remember! Then Trion happened.
Yep, before going completely pay to win Archeage was probably one of the mmos where i really felt i could do anything i wanted, i was thinking about it while i was in school, i really did have fun, but then the pay to win happened and the game is where it is now, a complete desert.
There are things we can salvage from Archeage , the concept is really well done and i believe if someone used the concept of archeage but did some changes like the labor points and the pay to win aspect of the game, we would have one of the best mmos out there.
I feel like devs instead of making wow clones should work on trying to make games like Archeage and Black desert but always trying to find ways to make it even better, but i guess making wow clones is alot easier and cheaper, you dont need any innovation its just copy paste.
Devs need to move onto fresh concepts, the wow era is over(should have ended earlier) so stop making clones of it no one cares, If they want to make clones make of new games like Archeage or Black Desert.