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Calling it now: Legion will be the last WoW expansion
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Steam: Neph
People like the OP have been QQing about WoW for ten years! Threads like this one just prove they are more desperate than ever when it comes to QQing about a VIDEO GAME they don't play...
Eventually the doomsayers will be right and WoW will go F2P, it's just that the death of WoW has been proclaimed imminent constantly since it came out. XYZ will kill WoW, WoW is on it's last legs, how will they recover from losing X number of subs, and so on.
In reality, Blizzard has made back the cost of WoW many many many times over at this point, it's already been a rousing success and will be in the gaming history books. It is a bit long in the tooth, but like others have mentioned, it's still best in class. FFARR is doing well, but it pales next to WoW. Legion is going to be well received, most of the people hating on it will be there day one with bells on, their case of redbull next to them and a handful of vacation days off work. They'll go nuts for 1-3 months and then run back to the forums to proudly state how bored they are.
WoW will always be slowly losing players at this point as more and more games come out and the player base spreads out. If Blizzard actually holds true to the once-per-year expansion, things will be very interesting to see. WoW's biggest issue has been expansions whimpering out and then stagnating for a year, if they change their release model it'll be great for retention.
WoW is the biggest sub based mmorpg out there, and people are still making claims it becomes f2p now, will be last expansion, and what ever other nonsense. Blizzard would be the biggest idiot on the gaming industry if they would turn this huge money making machine into something lesser, it makes no sense, there's no logic in it.
+1
Plus, around the WoD release they had mentioned that they already have a roadmap for like 10 more years of content.
Crazkanuk
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Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
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Last update? No. Still making to much money.
F2P? No. At least not in an LoL sense. In a TESO / Destiny / GW2 type of way - with people paying for yearly and expansions and a 6 monthly content drop? That I wouldn't rule out. Especially if Blizzard take the view that "lots" of players are just coming back for the expansion and not even sticking around for the patch (and 44% didn't stick around for 6.2) and that they could make more money by switching.
Biggest subscription based mmo? You have to accept that todayit is; pretty clear cut. Going forward though? If SBFord's is reading of the entrails is right - and I can't fault the logic - then Q3 will see an even bigger drop: so 4M or less. Or Bill's suggestion of a drop to 3M or less before the expansion. Could start to be a tricky claim. Expect more MAU numbers.
Last update "embedded in lore and designed for longer term play i.e. grind"? Maybe. If - as Blizzard have said - they want to shift to faster smaller expansions - then this would make sense. Take flying. Absent at the start of the next xpac say; the ability to earn flying drops in the 6 month patch; 6 months later nex xpac; flying gone. Or garrisons. If there was an xpac this October - 1 year later which is what they have talked about - would you be as welling to be doing the grind for stuff knowing that in 2 months "poof"? So the nature of expansions might change.
True, but I doubt they knew they would lose 48% of their playerbase. If they still continue with it, doubt it will be anything to hold your breath for.
WoD fucked it for them and they didn't help the situation.
@Kuinn, I agree, but blizz have already turned WoW into something lesser with WoD, less patches, lower quality, rehashed content. They had 10 mill and fucked it
So many personal attacks.
So many contortions and misrepresentations.
So many assumptions about motive and emotions.
Very, very sad.
I should have known from my 10+ years on this site what I would be in for, and boy oh boy did you all not disappoint at all.
Thankfully there are still a few level heads on this site that can hold civil, reasonable discourse. People who can look beyond their own perspectives and see the big picture.
The writing is on the wall.
The market has changed. MMOs have changed. Blizzard has changed.
They could wait until the floor really falls out from underneath them, but honestly they are way too smart for that. They will be looking ahead, planning, preparing.
Obviously no one but Blizzard knows what that plan is. But based off of everything I see, and have seen for years, across this genre, and across gaming as a whole, points me towards some undeniable facts, and from those facts, logical assumptions and predictions can be made.
I could definitely be wrong.
But I try and back up my predictions with solid reasoning and evidence.
People point to "oh they still have millions of subs and make tons of cash" but none of you know what counts as a "sub" because Blizzard doesn't tell us, and they don't tell us how much money WoW is making.
They (Activision) has told us how much Destiny and Hearthstone have made combined, and one can reasonably assume that the % of that billion dollars that comes from Hearthstone is much higher than that from Destiny, as Hearthstone is a much more popular game.
We've seen them cancel Titan, and what we are getting instead is Overwatch, which like Hearthstone and like Heroes of the Storm, are smaller, more focused gameplay experiences run by smaller, leaner, more agile teams.
We've seen, across the industry, major AAA title after title "fail" and either shut down completely or move to a F2P model in order to either limp on until death, or in the case of a few like Rift/SWTOR - succeed far greater as F2P than they ever did as P2P.
We've seen other games with core audiences do quite well in their 250-500k sub mark and survive and flourish under the sub model too.
We can see the end of the Starcraft series may be coming. The final chapter COULD be upon us. There is potential for Starcraft 3, but it would have to focus on the Xel'Naga. That ship may sail, but it could also end with the final chapter of the Starcraft 2/Protoss saga.
Additionally, RTS are not a huge genre anymore. MOBA has dominated the competitive scene.
We have seen what many believe is the last Diablo game, and it'd make sense for a new expansion to be in the works, and may be Blizzcon's big announcement, but at the same time I don't think anyone expects Diablo 4 to ever be made.
We see with Legion that many of the storylines are being finished or will potentially be finished. The Legion, Titans, Emerald Dream, the Naga and Azshara, and Sylvanas. We see they are turning us into characters as powerful as our heroes and villains through artifacts, Thrall, Arthas, Malfurion... We are also getting one of the biggest "fan service" things people have wanted forever - the Demon Hunter.
All of these things, and more, point to a conclusion that the story for WoW COULD be coming to a close with Legion.
We could protect Azeroth forever from another invasion by defeating Gul'Dan and closing down the rift/portal whatever in the tomb of Sargeras.
Also, WoW is 10+ years old.
Even Everquest made a sequel.
If I were Blizzard, I'd have been thinking about a WoW sequel a long time ago. If I were making Titan, I'd scrap that, use the assets for something else (hello Overwatch) and get to work on WoW 2 - especially because WoW is and has been in decline.
There are a LOT of possibilities.
I do NOT think Blizzard will try and bleed WoW dry with years of additional expansions, milking every last $ from a P2P sub.
They would make MORE money, most likely, going F2P with WoW during/after Legion.
They would make MORE money, most likely, finishing out Starcraft with Legacy of the Void, finishing out Diablo with a new expansion (maybe), and then focusing the vast majority of their staff on WoW 2 - letting the small teams in charge of Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm, a newly F2P WoW, and Overwatch continue to make them tons of money.
That is the future I see, again, based on everything I see now, the history, the evidence, etc.
To sum up:
1. Starcraft saga finishes with Legacy of the Void this year
2. Diablo 3 may or may not get another expansion, and then the Diablo saga is complete
3. Legion is the last major WoW expansion, going F2P sometime soon after and continuing on with a small content team, focusing mostly on re-vamping older content and providing cosmetic type stuff
4. Blizzard's small teams on Heroes of the Storm, Overwatch, the newly F2P WoW, and Hearthstone continue to pump out content and make the company tons of money utilizing their F2P models
5. Blizzard does one of two things - either downsizes immensely, continues to support these smaller teams and release a steady stream of new content for years to come. Goes "lean" to maximize what these smaller teams/games can do
6. Or they pull the giant work forces together who are not on these smaller project games and create WoW 2
I could see it going either way.
I think the WoW movie is just a fan service at this point, they've been dealing and trying to get it made for 5+ years. It's probably too late now. Sure, it'll make money, but will we see sequels?
For sequels, WoW has to remain relevant. Expansions like Legion are NOT going to keep WoW relevant.
A sequel, WoW 2, would.
The only thing bigger than WoW 2 would be something crazy like FF7 being re-made or the Last Guardian finally coming out, or something like Fallout 4 being finally released, or Half Life 3.
Funny, aren't a few of those things happening now?
The tl;dr of your OP is:
Blizzard learned through Hearthstone and HotS that they can make big coin with a lot less effort and preparation time than what a WoW expansion takes.
I can't argue with that.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
Yep!
People don't seem to get that the only way to maximize profit isn't just creating bigger/better game that sell more copies!
Production costs go up and up and up as size and quality go up.
Sure you might make 500 million dollars on a massive AAA game, but you have 3-5 years development time and costs before you even make a penny on the game.
So instead, you lower production costs, pump out products faster, so even with less sales you can make more money.
Blizzard has proven their smaller games can generate just as much, of not more, profit, and cost a lot less to make, are faster to make, require less resources to make, etc. etc. etc.
So they won't be losing anything by allowing WoW to naturally continue to downsize and scale back as it has been for years now.
Instead, they refocus on the smaller/lighter games, the smaller/lighter teams, and continue to make bajesus tons of money.
I don't think there is a single suit in the upper echelons of Blizzard/Activision that is in denial.
Lots of players are though!
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.
WoD sales = 50$ x 12 millions.
And, 5.2 millions x 12 months x 15$ = more than your BILLION from Hearthstone and Destiny.
Ok, this is with 5.2 millions, not 12 millions like before... if not everyone pay, you can add the In-game shop and all those paid service, do you really think it's not more than a billion?
Sorry but I'm pretty sure Warcraft is still #1 for money.
Why do Blizzard would like to lose all that money?
But, I agree with the fact that WoW is getting old and the time has come to end this, but it's not because of the money,
And, I do not agree that ending Warcraft/Diablo/Starcraft is what Blizzard want.
You're right BadSpock, you've convinced me. Blizzard will either do something small or something big in future. As you said, no one knows for sure what they're planning except for Blizzard and therefore they will be doing something at some point.
I can't argue with this, it's air tight. Blizzard will, in fact, do something. Star Craft might be on it's final installment, or it might not. D3 might get an expansion, or it might not, and D3 might be the last Diablo, or it might not. Overwatch is a thing, it might do well, it might not. And of course, WoW, could be done, or maybe not, or maybe WoW2 or maybe Warcraft 4 which would segue into WoW2 or WoW might have 10 years of expansions as stated by Blizz, or maybe not, or maybe F2P, or maybe not.
I'll give you this, you are very thorough in explaining how there are many possible outcomes and paths for Blizzard.
Way to add nothing. Good job!
What do you think will happen?
Pretty sure I've given my reasons to why I think what is going to happen will happen.
But hey, this is MMORPG.com, everyone is entitled to their trolling! Please continue.
You are aware that is not even remotely close to how it works, right?
There are so many more pieces to the equation than # of sales x price and # of subs x cost of 1 mo sub.
Same for creating a new game.
Destiny cost at least 150 Millions to develop. If they sales for 500 Millions, the profit should be around 300 Millions...
300 Millions and now they have to pay for small services, small servers, and they wasted years to develop that. At least 3 years... so If you stop it now, you made only 100 millions each year with that game.
WoW = same profit every expansion with less developping cost, and LOT of money from subs/shop/etc...
Edit:
WoW story is not done, Blizzard CAN do anything, they can even create brand new stories. They can create a new world too, destroy everything, create a new 3d engine, anything is possible, this is not Starwars or Lord of the ring.
Since the beginning, Blizzard is almost only using character you have seen in old RTS games, but they can move on and add more and more and more characters too.
All I did was summarize the nonsense you've been saying. You've given reasons for lots of various things, you can't play every side and then say, "What do you think?" That's not a discussion, that's you saying pretty much anything can happen, we don't know, why are people not getting what I'm saying?
I don't really want to repeat myself in every thread pertaining to WoW, but what I think about WoW's current situation is that Blizz needs to hit the annual expansion schedule that they claim to be trying to do. WoD will never last until next December. If Legion comes out this winter, then WoW will enter a new era with much stronger retention. I have full faith that they can put one out per year, WoW has lore miles long, and being fantasy, new lore can be created at any time.
If they do this, then combined with the publicity the movie will generate they can capture the interest of new young players (they're not concerned about the bittervets crying on forums around the internet). But what is Blizzard really doing? They've built an ecosystem that feeds each other part. A person enjoying HS casually might wonder what WoW is all about and try it out, a person playing WoW might try out HS for a promo mount or because people talk about it in chat, HotS has heros from WoW that people recognize so they might give it a shot and mingle with other characters inspiring them to try a different blizzard game and so on.
They've created a vortex of overlap between games through their smaller titles. To throw away WoW would be to knock out one of the major pillars of this system. They want people who play one of their games, to play their other games. They're using each game as a sales lead into their other games. When you pre-order a game, you get a promo item in a different game. A person might only spend $15/mo on WoW, but if you get them interested in WoW lore/classes and they try out HS, they might just dump money into it.
Blizzard is operating on another level. You'd think other big boys like EA would have started doing this, but they still treat each game as a silo and each playerbase as a separate market segment. Blizzard multiplies the power of it's marketing by getting people into it's ecosystem. WoW carries value beyond revenue (of which there is a lot), it's a flagship game. It represents the name, it houses so many creations. Blizz won't stop new WoW content until they've got the next big thing in line, and right now, I don't think they do.
Way to add nothing? Your entire thread adds nothing because it's filled nonsense designed as a flame bait and to attract clicks lol.
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
I think Activision / Blizzard will see what the Warcraft movie will do for the game and they'll go off of that. If the movie doesn't renew the love of Warcraft, it will go F2P. I predict they will cut the Warcraft team in half and will reassign the members to other projects similar to hearthstone and Heroes.
/2cents