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Assumptions and Predictions
Frek
Member UncommonPosts: 53
Having played DDO from the alpha and on, and then watching the eventual fanboi vs. bashers threads that pop up I thought I would post something about DDO with a little bit of a different angle. I entitled my thread "Assumptions and Predictions" because it's really just my musings at what I really think is going on behind the scenes. That and this thread will either make me look like a moron or a genius, it will be at least 6 months to a year before we can determine that though. (and if its the former then hopefully most people will have forgotten this post by then)
Before I get into my assumptions lets first take a very brief look at Turbines history. AC1 was for all intense purposes a pretty good game. It is the only Turbine game ever made that does have a decent word of mouth amoung MMO players. However, lets not forget that even though AC1 is regarded as a good game it never really enjoyed much success. I don't recall the specifics but at AC1 peek it had what, 10 servers? Maybe I should go look up the numbers somewhere but I don't recall AC1 ever passing the 100k sub level. If I'm wrong on that I'm sure one of the "fanbois" will point it out.
Now lets move on to AC2. I'm sure I don't need to dwell on this game much as everyone is quite aware of how dismal it was. At release the fanbois predicted upwards of 500k subs. I don't think AC2 ever even broke 50k subs.
This brings us to today and the beginning of my assumptions. I believe we can explain why DDO was designed with all instances. I believe that at the very outset of designing DDO that uppermanagement wanted a game that would recoup its costs from box sales and the first few months of subs. Why do I assume that? Well lets look at how DDO is designed. It will not require very much bandwidth compared to traditional MMO's. DDO is very similiar to GW and we know that GW was able to turn a profit on box sales alone as they have no sub costs at all. DDO imo followed this design. From the very outset the design team has been focused on ways to keep costs to a minimium as Turbine simply cannot afford to release another MMO that loses money.
If we also take it a step further we can see that Turbine has also decided to recycle as much content as humanly possible. This is why we see the same dungeon tilesets over and over again in DDO. This also explains why Ken Troop makes statements like "You have to play through the same dungeon several times to really enjoy it".
I really believe that Turbine has made an effort here to keep production costs low enough so that they can recoup most of the design costs on box sales and the first few months of subs. This way they have protected themselves from another flop like AC2.
Now let me get into my predictions about where DDO is headed. The lack of content and fluff (by fluff I mean the things you can do in other MMO's besides hack n slash, crafting, player selling, exploring, etc etc) will eventually lead to many new players burning out faster than normal. I predict a very low retention rate for DDO. I'm going to guess somewhere around a 25% retention rate for the first 3 months.
As far as servers go I'm going to predict that we are going to see the fastest server merge of any MMO ever. I'm not sure what the record is for it. Maybe someone else knows? In AC2 the server merges happend what? 2 years after release? (or was it faster). Anyways, I really think they are starting out with way too many servers. Even a casual player is going to burn through what little content there is in under 3 weeks. This will also add to the poor retention rate. Add in that there is absolutely nothing for a player to do unless he can find a group and you have many players simply giving up. (I'm not talking strictly group vs. solo here either, what I mean is there really is NOTHING to do outside of finding a group and doing a dungeon)
So there you have it. I think Turbine at the very beginning set out to create a low cost MMO so as not to put themselves into another AC2 situation. This way if the game doesn't fair very well they don't lose any money. If it is even mildly successful then they turn a very nice product. (If GW can turn a profit on their MMO then Turbine will make a killing on $15/month subs if they hang onto to any people) I think this also explains why there is nothing to do in this game besides dungeons, management did not want to put any development costs into anything else in hopes of keeping costs down. In the end I think their plan will back fire upon them as most gamers simply aren't going to stick around for much more than a month once they discover how little content is actually in DDO. My assumptions also greatly explain why DDO seems to lack "soul", it's because the dev team set out to create as bare a bones game as they possibly could. 6 months to a year from now I really think we will see people talking about when are they gonna merge the servers. I do think DDO will outlast AC2 though simply because it is very obivous that DDO was designed from the ground up to require very little bandwidth or upkeep costs. So it will only take a very small sub base to keep the game going.
That's my assumptions and predections. If you look at DDO through the "glasses" I've just given you I think it explains quite a bit about why DDO is the way it is.
Comments
Quoted for authenticity.
so...
AC1 and all other MMO's were and are flat compared to today's MMO success that is WoW. Lineage being the exception to that. Even EQ with its half a million subscribers is nothing compared to over 5 million subscribers. Hopefully DDO won't be in the 50k range!
I don't see a significant savings on bandwidth. If a server holds 2000 people and there are 2000 people on, there are still 2000 clients transmitting game data there and back again. The only gain I see is clients don't have to receive the locations of multiple players at the same time. However I don't see that as a large bandwidth difference.
MMO Chart with AC1 stats - MMO Chart with AC2 stats
Some people say you need to watch a movie more than once to catch everything. I believe that to be what the quote meant.
Hopefully they add D&D crafting as it is in PnP to the game eventually. This will make many people happy although it's not a feature I desire.
I don't think a casual player will burn through the dungeons in three weeks, but someone who plays a bunch can probably burn through most of it. I know, I know.. someone knows a guy who knows a guy who said that he was with a guy that did it and he was a casual gamer. However, I know people who played the hell out of beta and got to 10, so it may be possible to get to 10 in a few weeks if you play all the time.
No game has soul. Players have the souls - unless it's SOE, then they're sucking the souls from the players and end up with the souls for themselves. Anyway, if you're not in to it then you're simply not going to find it enjoyable. Thanks for your glasses but you can have them back. I'll keep my rose colored glasses on until Turbine smudges them.
so...
With 16 servers and they plan on having 3000 users per server (hoping to have 1000 active/online users) that puts them at 16x3000=48,000 target (wild guess).
I spent many months in alpha/beta and the main reason that I'm not subscribing is the lack of content (there are a few small reasons, but nothing major).
However, I believe Turbine is going to do something big with the first "free month". They didn't finish a few dungeons before alpha beta, but they kept working on them. I expect them to do the first update in the first or second month to lure players into thinking they will be providing content on a bi-monthly/monthly basis (or at least get subscribers to re-up to the 6 month package).
I really hope DDO breaks 50k, but I don't have big hopes for that. Its a good idea to watch the forum accounts. Yesterday, there were 160k accounts (many were probably dups created for beta slots). Today the new forums launched and only subscribers can register - there are 3600 forum accounts right now. Forum accounts aren't a good measure, but I think that at least +50% would have an account there in the next few weeks.
80,000 pre-orders X $49.00 = $3,920,000
'nuff said
There is two major flaws with this post. (Honestly why am I even responding to this).
1.) There simply isn't 80,000 pre-orders for DDO. Check around. Gamespy's PC page doesn't even mention DDO. Gamespot's PC page also has no mention of DDD and it's not on the PC top ten list (which it should be if there was any interest in DDO). In fact there is hardly any buzz about DDO anywhere on the net. Even right here on MMORPG.com DDO isn't even on the most-anticipated list and this forum is kinda dead considering this game goes retail next week.
Checking the official DDO forums so far this morning there are only 6,648 members so far. At most as the above post has said, we add maybe +50% to that number (I don't even think we can add that though honestly, anyone who pre-ordered DDO is going to register on the forum at the same time they register their pre-order so that they can get the head-start bonus). 6,648 people for the head start program doesn't exactly bode well for DDO. I'll wait until the end of today but I doubt that we will even break 10k.
2.) Turbine doesn't see the full $49.00 from every sale. The publisher, middle-man, and retailer all get a cut out of that $49.00. Turbine probably only sees 10-15 of the actual box price.
DDO's release will be a flame fest so large that all other flames to date will seem like mearly warm milk.
Of the 80k preorders + in store buys... I doubt 25% of though people ever read a DDO FAQ.
Thus opening day will consist of countless threads saying stuff like.
"How do you play a druid or Monk?"
"You can't play a druid FU Turbine /cancel"
"At what level can you learn crafting?"
"You can't craft FU Turbine /cancel"
"No PvP WTH, MY PnP Group PvP all the time /cancel"
"Is the game all instanced? WTH /cancel"
DDO will piss off close minded PnP players
DDO will piss off close minded MMO players
People that DDO doesn't piss off will be pissed off by all the game and forum lag caused by all the angry players.
Lord help turbine if the servers crash or they have a lot of downtime at release.
Guild Wars got flamed to death for about the first 3 month of it's release... Countless and countless flames about the lack of craftinig, and use of instancing and they had zero server related release problems. If people that demanded crafting and presistance worlds didn't buy the game we wouldn't of had to listen to all those flames. However, most buys still come from people that only read the blurb on the back of the box.
People hear something is good... "Wow and MMORPG rating of 8!!!" and then buy it expecting it to be a certain way we pictured it in our minds... when it isn't they get pissed off. And since they don't enjoy playing the game they will out number happy players on the forums.
There is two major flaws with this post. (Honestly why am I even responding to this).
1.) There simply isn't 80,000 pre-orders for DDO. Check around. Gamespy's PC page doesn't even mention DDO. Gamespot's PC page also has no mention of DDD and it's not on the PC top ten list (which it should be if there was any interest in DDO). In fact there is hardly any buzz about DDO anywhere on the net. Even right here on MMORPG.com DDO isn't even on the most-anticipated list and this forum is kinda dead considering this game goes retail next week.
Checking the official DDO forums so far this morning there are only 6,648 members so far. At most as the above post has said, we add maybe +50% to that number (I don't even think we can add that though honestly, anyone who pre-ordered DDO is going to register on the forum at the same time they register their pre-order so that they can get the head-start bonus). 6,648 people for the head start program doesn't exactly bode well for DDO. I'll wait until the end of today but I doubt that we will even break 10k.
2.) Turbine doesn't see the full $49.00 from every sale. The publisher, middle-man, and retailer all get a cut out of that $49.00. Turbine probably only sees 10-15 of the actual box price.
I agree almost 100% with your opening post.
I just wanted to point out that pre-orders don't count for sales charts. If you look on EB they have had DDO as a best-seller pre-order for many weeks so I think 80k is var fetched. The forum numbers are no indication since I don't see why anyone would subsribe there the first day, I ahve not even thought about going to the forum :P .
I think the game will have a good player base at launch. The main forums are fairly active and that's usually a good sign. How long Turbine sustains the good player base is anyone's guess. Most folks play MMO's because you are transported to another WORLD, not another town. The lack of a world environment will be a detriment to the game.
If the rubberbanding persists and the chat bugs still remain (both holdovers from AC2, not a good sign), I think folks will bail fast. The MMO player is becoming more refined and demanding of the product, shoddy gameplay/stability isn't getting the same slack it used to in the old days. It's a niche game at best I think. Expect EVE-ish subscriber numbers after the release hype?
I'll give it a try when a free trial comes around. I'm not going to shell out $50 after all of the bad publicity its' received since the NDA was dropped.
just a point, if you played AC1 you may remember the world "evolved" on a monthly base, with new events and content dribbling in every month, so it's not like turbine doesn't have a history of releasing content on a monthly basis.
however i do agree with your assumption that said content dribble won't be enough to retain the player base, with the expection of the hardcore fanbase (who would have played the game regardless of how it turned out to be) the casual player base, who are actually the major source for profit in any MMO, will most likely leave the game in 2-3 months unless some serious amount of content is added.
MMORPG addict since 1995.
Yesterday, I noticed the forums had around 9,100 user accounts. Today, they removed the forum status section which displays the total users. I guess we are just going to be guessing on the subscriber accounts.