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Rant: Predictions
mgilbrtsn
Member EpicPosts: 3,430
lol, I know people absolutely adore making dire predictions, but it's getting ridiculous. RIDICULOUS. Blizzard makes a game for consoles and it's the end of a multi billion dollar industry. Ridiculous. The thread that caused this, in case you wanna get in on the action (http://forums.mmorpg.com/discussion/comment/6944942/)
We've had everything from 'Oculus Rift/VR is gonna die because some people get motion sickness' to 'the end of MMOs because me and my friends have stopped playing.'
Everyone like the classic 'Warhammer is gonna fold' 'WoW is gonna fold' 'EQ is gonna fold' etc. Of course they're gonna fold. No game is gonna run in perpetuity. It doesn't take Nostradamus to figure this out. And yet... and yet the forums are flush with people congratulating themselves. 'Told ya'
Of course it's a race after the sad truth becomes obvious that a game isn't long for this world. Anyone notice that the soothsayers get more numerous as the day of judgment is at hand for one of the unfortunates who are folding. 6 years out 2 soothsayers.... 3 years out 4 soothsayers..... 1 year 12, 6 months 15, 1 week 100. I can't remember, but I there was probably one last thread of someone trying to get into the tea leaf reading business to get their prophetic chops as they were turning out the lights. 'Woot, told ya.'
It hasn't reared it's head lately that I've seen, but what about PCs. 'Acme News: PC sales are down' The prognosticators 'it's the end of PCs, all hail mobile gaming.' Everyone set their calendars.
How about 'WoW is starting to lose numbers: It's the end of themeparks... all hail Sandbox' Oh, don't get uppity Sandboxers. 'Darkfall Failed: It's the end of Sandboxes... all hail themeparks.'
Let's not forget another favorite. 'Look how many games are going F2P, it's the end of subscriptions' but wait, whats getting popular now. 'Look at the rise of B2P, it's the end of subscriptions and F2P is gonna massively decline'
Last one, I promise. 'EQ Next is cancelled: It's the death knell of AAA MMOs' BILLION DOLLAR Industry and it's not worth AAA attention.
Not everything is a harbinger of the end. It's fun to speculate on these things, but let's get some perspective. People in these forums could give doomsday cults a run for their money.
Kool Aid anyone?
Rant over.
We've had everything from 'Oculus Rift/VR is gonna die because some people get motion sickness' to 'the end of MMOs because me and my friends have stopped playing.'
Everyone like the classic 'Warhammer is gonna fold' 'WoW is gonna fold' 'EQ is gonna fold' etc. Of course they're gonna fold. No game is gonna run in perpetuity. It doesn't take Nostradamus to figure this out. And yet... and yet the forums are flush with people congratulating themselves. 'Told ya'
Of course it's a race after the sad truth becomes obvious that a game isn't long for this world. Anyone notice that the soothsayers get more numerous as the day of judgment is at hand for one of the unfortunates who are folding. 6 years out 2 soothsayers.... 3 years out 4 soothsayers..... 1 year 12, 6 months 15, 1 week 100. I can't remember, but I there was probably one last thread of someone trying to get into the tea leaf reading business to get their prophetic chops as they were turning out the lights. 'Woot, told ya.'
It hasn't reared it's head lately that I've seen, but what about PCs. 'Acme News: PC sales are down' The prognosticators 'it's the end of PCs, all hail mobile gaming.' Everyone set their calendars.
How about 'WoW is starting to lose numbers: It's the end of themeparks... all hail Sandbox' Oh, don't get uppity Sandboxers. 'Darkfall Failed: It's the end of Sandboxes... all hail themeparks.'
Let's not forget another favorite. 'Look how many games are going F2P, it's the end of subscriptions' but wait, whats getting popular now. 'Look at the rise of B2P, it's the end of subscriptions and F2P is gonna massively decline'
Last one, I promise. 'EQ Next is cancelled: It's the death knell of AAA MMOs' BILLION DOLLAR Industry and it's not worth AAA attention.
Not everything is a harbinger of the end. It's fun to speculate on these things, but let's get some perspective. People in these forums could give doomsday cults a run for their money.
Kool Aid anyone?
Rant over.
I self identify as a monkey.
Comments
"This may hurt a little, but it's something you'll get used to. Relax....."
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다
"The knowledge of the theory of logic has no tendency whatever to make men good reasoners." - Thomas B. Macaulay
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Daniel J. Boorstin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lost_Vikings
"The knowledge of the theory of logic has no tendency whatever to make men good reasoners." - Thomas B. Macaulay
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Daniel J. Boorstin
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다
I approve of the message.
/Cheers,
Lahnmir
Kyleran on yours sincerely
'But there are many. You can play them entirely solo, and even offline. Also, you are wrong by default.'
Ikcin in response to yours sincerely debating whether or not single-player offline MMOs exist...
'This does not apply just to ED but SC or any other game. What they will get is Rebirth/X4, likely prettier but equally underwhelming and pointless.
It is incredibly difficult to design some meaningfull leg content that would fit a space ship game - simply because it is not a leg game.
It is just huge resource waste....'
Gdemami absolutely not being an armchair developer
And didn't Blizz cancelled titan? So clearly, mmorpg is not worth AAA attention to Blizz.
Is Funcom considered AAA? They are working on Conan Exiles which would be a new entrant.
I self identify as a monkey.
In the first example, the person states an opinion which invites discussion. In the second, no discussion is necessary because it's stated as fact. I would argue that the average joe, sitting in his underwear, drinking soda and munching on last nights dinner isn't privy to the internal workings of Blizzard.
Also, people seem to make these predictions with no to very thread bear evidence. It seems to me, if you're gonna be declarative, you should have some evidence.
What's the problem? In the end, does it affect me. No. It's the a MMO forum and doesn't put food in my mouth. However, it is designed for social interaction and it seems to me that positive/productive discussion would be better.
Also, a many people look to these kinds of MMO forums for ideas on what to play and not to play. By flooding the forum with dire predictions will keep some people away from some games. It could even, potentially, contribute to a games decline. Sometimes narratives become like viruses and infect the community.
I self identify as a monkey.
I self identify as a monkey.
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
Crowd funding seems to be the standard with smaller and new MMO's in the western market because, why waste our money when the players can pay for the game before we even start development. If the project fails, we lose nothing but a bit of pre-development time. If the shit gets too bad, we change company names and go back to business as usual.
The MMO industry MAY be a billion dollar market but tapping that market with a game successful enough to pull a steady profit is near impossible currently. The best way to tap into that market is not to create MMO's at all, but slowly draw that crowd into another Genre and hold them there from lack of fresh MMO's being released. LOL, Hearthstone, Ark: Survival Evolved, many, many more. Roleplaying games or games close enough to roleplay or the original MMO that players can see enough similarities to want to try them. Hook those players and you have a steady stream of income.
The Doomsayers come out in force the as it becomes more obvious that the game will fail. At the start you just have people that 'want' it to fail saying so. As time progresses then you have more, other, people that jump on the wagon because they finally saw the writing on the wall.
I don't like saying MMO's are dead, but I do not think they are the future.
I self identify as a monkey.
Conan Exiles is a MMORPG with a single player mode, private & public servers?
Wait ... you are right. There are AAA MMOs like Destiny and The Division. As long as we broaden the definition of MMOs to latest online AAA games, there will be AAA MMOs, right?
The Division fits inside of that bracket quite nicely.
Blizzard's Jeff Caplan had this to say about the cancelled project Titan: Link
"You had a really amazing group that was working on Titan," he said. "They were really talented individuals, but we failed horrifically in every way ... In every way that a project can fail. It was devastating.
"You had these people who either came from other companies or from within Blizzard, and were used to working on games that were very successful like a World of Warcraft, for example. To go through such a complete and utter failure is very hard for people who are used to experiencing success."
From another article, how Overwatch was spawned: Link
"Overwatch is a game born out of the wreckage of Blizzard's last attempt at a massive, World of Warcraft-like game codenamed Titan, and is inspired by the company's relatively tiny game and surprise hit Hearthstone."
Try reading so we can be spared your BS fabrications. It's irrelevant to me whether Blizzard "abandons" the genre or not, but Titan is gone because it sucked plain and simple. It would really not shock and awe me if this company made another attempt sometime in the future at making an MMO(RPG) considering how successful their one and only has been.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
Warhammer did fold long before the servers went offline, existing only because EA refused to voluntarily shut it down until the license ran out and Games Workshop didn't renew it. Running a game to the end of its license looks better to shareholders than shutting it down early.
Not to mention the CEO of Blizz states that "didn’t want to get stuck in the big blockbuster MMO realm"
http://gamerant.com/blizzard-cancels-titan-mmo/
In fact, they are pretty negative about it. And I quote
"“Is this really what we want? Is this really what we want to burn our passion and our work lives, our careers on, for years on end?” He later added, “Are we the MMORPG company?”"
Clearly, they don't want to be. Do you care to put money on Blizz making a NEW mmorpg in the next 2 year? Or do you just want to spin?
I think there is a tendency for people on the forum to view decisions as absolute, unwavering, monumental decisions. Moses (insert favorite CEO) coming down the mountain with immutable laws. This is not the case.
It's more of a case of Moses dipping his toe into the Red Sea periodically to see if 'now is a good time to head across'
I self identify as a monkey.