Ashes of Creation - August Store Update

jahlon · August 2018

Kyleran · August 2018

Breaking my normal rule I watched this.

You did a great job breaking down the value of the store changes, the "cost" of testing access and analysis of the skins and what not.

Yet, at the end of of it all, this seems very wrong.

You freely accept there are limited resources to upgrade the forums, yet apparently no such shortage to make new items to sell or update the store.

Remember, this is a fully funded game with multi millions at their disposal, so they are selling more stuff for what reason?

Kyleran · August 2018

While it is impressive they remain "on schedule" they haven't really shared much to show what that really means.

Also, recall the 80/20 'rule (Pareto principle) of software development, most teams focus on the easier, more clearly defined work packages at first, deferring the more vague, and often quite challenging tasks such as optimization until the end.

This results in the final 20% taking far longer than estimated, perhaps not 4 times longer but i won't be at all surprised to see a late date slip.

If you can see no reason why Steven might not share any schedule slippages now then you have never worked delivering software.

Devs are always eternal optimists, which pragmatic project managers quickly learn Devs always believe any lost time can be made up some how. Lots of "magic" thinking goes into these schedule recovery efforts but rarely do they achieve intended effect.

There are however two strategies which are frequently employed that almost always work.

Reducing scope is commonly used when meeting the schedule date, or if meeting the minimum marketable product is your goal, then pushing out the date is better.

I expect Ashes to employ one or both before it reaches full launch, most likely going through a series of weasel word phases such as early access, or soft launch as has become the norm.

jahlon · August 2018

Kyleran said:

Breaking my normal rule I watched this.

You did a great job breaking down the value of the store changes, the "cost" of testing access and analysis of the skins and what not.

Yet, at the end of of it all, this seems very wrong.

You freely accept there are limited resources to upgrade the forums, yet apparently no such shortage to make new items to sell or update the store.

Remember, this is a fully funded game with multi millions at their disposal, so they are selling more stuff for what reason?

The people making the graphics for the monthly packages are not the people working on the web development, so saying there is a shortage to upgrading the forums but not to making new items to sell is comparing two different job responsibilities.

As far as updating the store, that's an easy explanation. You can be up to your eyes in work on a major project, but your boss needs something small done, so you do the one small thing and then go back to the major project. I can be busy load planning a three C-17 shipment, but if someone needs the load plan for a single pallet on a KC-135 I can bang that out in 2 mins and go back to my major shipment.

As far as muli-millions at their disposal, they stated they were fully funded to bring a viable core product to release. With the success of the kickstarter, the continued growth, the positive media reviews, they are making a wise decision to test the waters by selling the monthly cosmetics, not just for the income (but that is the primary reason most people will see it for) but also to see product feedback. Stufferton? People revolted and hated it. Might not want to have too many things similar to that. Other things, more widely sold, gives you insight into your customers.

Kyleran said:

While it is impressive they remain "on schedule" they haven't really shared much to show what that really means.

Also, recall the 80/20 'rule (Pareto principle) of software development, most teams focus on the easier, more clearly defined work packages at first, deferring the more vague, and often quite challenging tasks such as optimization until the end.

This results in the final 20% taking far longer than estimated, perhaps not 4 times longer but i won't be at all surprised to see a late date slip.

If you can see no reason why Steven might not share any schedule slippages now then you have never worked delivering software.

Devs are always eternal optimists, which pragmatic project managers quickly learn Devs always believe any lost time can be made up some how. Lots of "magic" thinking goes into these schedule recovery efforts but rarely do they achieve intended effect.

There are however two strategies which are frequently employed that almost always work.

Reducing scope is commonly used when meeting the schedule date, or if meeting the minimum marketable product is your goal, then pushing out the date is better.

I expect Ashes to employ one or both before it reaches full launch, most likely going through a series of weasel word phases such as early access, or soft launch as has become the norm.

Yes, you are correct when using the Pareto example. The last 20% of the game may cause them more problems they know how to overcome....unless they have already taken the two most likely culprits to cause problems with large scale MMO development and moved them to the front.

First, they laid down an extensive Alpha Zero test phase, which they worked with Epic Games, their own engineers, Epic's engineers (I believe a total of 14 engineers on the endeavor) to make sure that what they were building they were building on solid rock and not sand. They are also testing their combat starting next month (and showcasing the combat on 17 August during the livestream).

I couldn't tell you much in the way of software development, but as far as production, yeah I understand production, logistics, supply chain management, all the same problems just making different stuff.

Given Steven's background in marketing (for good or for bad) he understands more than most independent developers what image means. He can't afford to start doing things like using weasel words, because his intention was to "change" the MMO genre. If he becomes "just another MMO company" Ashes will be the size of Eve, a solid 50,000 players at first and then slowly dwindling as time goes on.

Will they reduce the scope? I doubt it, that would just be another form of being weasels.

Will they stop doing major reveals (like the random Naval reveal last month) yeah most likely. I imagine at this point they will button up what we know about, get all that into testing, and then stop feature add-ons until the game is more shored up. Then they will start doing major reveals when they know they can get things done in time for launch.

Or, it could all fall on its face. I'm ready for that possibility as well. I mean hell you can walk into a casino with two free $100 bets. The smart move is to put $100 on red, $100 on black and walk away with $200 in cash. Sadly, 00 may come up on and crap on your day.

Kyleran · August 2018

As Batman in the Lego movie might say, "always bet on black."

Thanks for sharing your insights, makes for good discussion and you are not nearly so smug and insufferable as some of those on the SC threads.

I'll try to be the same.

jahlon · August 2018

Kyleran said:

As Batman in the Lego movie might say, "always bet on black."

Thanks for sharing your insights, makes for good discussion and you are not nearly so smug and insufferable as some of those on the SC threads.

I'll try to be the same.

Wesley Snipes said the same thing in Passenger 57. Damn I'm old.

I appreciate that.

Yeah I just try to show why I feel a certain way, or what I know about something that someone else might not know.

And those SC people, I can't handle them or the CoE people. They are just ANGRY.

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Ashes of Creation - August Store Update

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Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

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Ashes of Creation - August Store Update

Comments

Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV