Originally posted by Morneblade I used those numbers because they give you a idea on how many people are active watching the game, and of courser theya re the only numbers we really have that can be supported in ANY way. CoH had about 200,000 members prior to release, and their subscriptions are around that. WoW had millions, and have a bout 4.5 million subs right now. Exact science? NO. But it gives you an idea of the interest. *Hint* It's not huge, and it took a big hit. Yes, Vanguard is not releasing tomorrow, and will most likely get more people interested with E3, but I dont know if the new people will offset the people they lost. Anyones' guess there. At least I do have a leg to stand on though, unlike some people around here.
your right it is "anyones guess" and alot can change between now and release......i just don't think you can compare active players to forums subscribers, because most gamers don't even use the forums.
BTW are you sure wow had millions? because you don't have to register to their forums and they certainly didn't have millions at release, that i am sure. coh/cov i really don't know so i will give you the benefit of the doubt.
A little scavenger hunt/contest for you (or anyone else that wants to try). Find some concrete numbers that show a comparison between official forum subscibers and actual subscribed players. (The numbers on mmorpgchart.com are close enough for the subscribed numbers - even though WoW is closer to 6 mil. now. )
Give a link to the site that gives the # for forum subscibers and then the # from mmorpgchart.com (or another link if it's numbers are used instead).
The reason that I say this is because it's long been assumed that the numbers on an official forum are the vocal MINORITY. If you could prove that NOT to be the case it would give those of us who do frequent the forums a lot more weight when discussing issues with developers.
True enough about the WOW forums, all you needed was a key code from a previous game. However, how long did it take for WoW to hit 1 million subs? Wasn't long.
Name a MMO that does not have a forum?
And as I said its about the only way you can get any idea of a interest in a game that has not been released. And as I said, it's only a ballpark figure, and by no means exact.
Originally posted by _Shadowmage Well then how many people do you expect to play Vanguard?Would you agree that it wont have as many as WOW?Do you think it will be more than EQ2 + EQ1 combined.So if we said 600,000 to 1,000,000 people would play vanguard I think Sigil would be very happy with those numbers. And thats between 5% and 10% of all people playing MMORPG's. Especially as Vanguard is not aimed at the mass market like WOW.So if anything they have overquoted in their made up figures.
I say they'd be stunned if they break the 200k mark.
Nobody's going to be the next WoW until maybe Warhammer. WoW will be like the Bulls with Jordan, nobody will come close until Jordan retires.
Shayde - SWG (dead) Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled - Some deluded SWG fanboi who pities me. I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too. 09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
Vanguard won't have an official forum when it ships. They've been saying so for a long time now. They are telling people not to become attached to the "official" forum, but instead to find a home on some fan site. Silky Venom is one of the bigger ones, but there are plenty to chose from.
Originally posted by dragonace I'm agreeing with angerr on this one. A little scavenger hunt/contest for you (or anyone else that wants to try). Find some concrete numbers that show a comparison between official forum subscibers and actual subscribed players. (The numbers on mmorpgchart.com are close enough for the subscribed numbers - even though WoW is closer to 6 mil. now. ) Give a link to the site that gives the # for forum subscibers and then the # from mmorpgchart.com (or another link if it's numbers are used instead). The reason that I say this is because it's long been assumed that the numbers on an official forum are the vocal MINORITY. If you could prove that NOT to be the case it would give those of us who do frequent the forums a lot more weight when discussing issues with developers. Good Luck.
The numbers from mmorpgchart are from 1/06, so they are not up to date. I could send a couple links go forums like CoH that keep track of the member numbers, but if the game has been out for a couple years, the numbers are going to be pretty scewed. Member that have quit long ago will still show up. So it's a little more accurate to compare numbers at release, which is what I was doing.
Good point about forums, to a extent. Yeah, alot of people don't post on the forums and if dev's listened to everything they heard, things would be very bad. Still there are alot more that go and read and not post that post. They are registered uses as well. And of course there are people that dont even know about the forums. But as I said it's about the only way to get a "idea" of the number of people that might be purchasing the game.
Yeah.. MMORPGCHART isn't updated. They haven't done any updates in over a year.. like July 2005 actually.
I just thought of a great marketing slogan...
"Play Vanguard. $OE hasn't screwed it up.... yet"
Shayde - SWG (dead) Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled - Some deluded SWG fanboi who pities me. I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too. 09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
But see, that's the problem. Without some link or site to verify the numbers you've posted, then we only have your word to go on. I have no reason to doubt your word, but when basing an arguement on numbers it's a good idea to back them up with some kind of source. (Like you did with the numbers from mmorpgchart.com)
I can view the number (or at least I think it's the right number) for Vanguard's site from their member list. It's actually around 74,000 (perhaps I'm looking at something wrong, since you posted 83,000 before).
Like I said earlier, if some correlation between forum numbers and subscribers could be attained I think it would be in our best interest as regular forum members.
Originally posted by Shayde Yeah.. MMORPGCHART isn't updated. They haven't done any updates in over a year.. like July 2005 actually. I just thought of a great marketing slogan..."Play Vanguard. $OE hasn't screwed it up.... yet"
Actually, he just posted an update on April 11, 2006 explaining just that. The figures that were used earlier are from Jan. 2006 (so not quite 6 months off). He is supposed to be doing a full update anytime now.
(I am not going to help those clowns make a dime. When my SWG (now refugees in WoW) heard that SoE was the publisher, they said almsot universally "No thanks, got burned once by SoE.)
Oh great, VixenHeart ! Now we are going to have all the SOE evils rehashed again. Way to go!
Heh, seriously though. I never have understood the hate that forum posters conjure up. Sure, I was unhappy with the direction that SWG went as well. I canceled. End of story.
I'm not sure where the thinking that company x is next to sainthood and company y is one step away from a deal with the devil comes from. Hello! All companies have one goal in mind. Make money. Most companies want to make as much money as they can as quickly as they can. It's the way a capitalistic system works.
Perhaps sometime in the future there will be MMO's ran by non-profit groups, but for now; they're all the same. If the perceived actions of one company are deemed to be worse than another, it's only because you don't know what the other has been up to.
Originally posted by dragonace Oh great, VixenHeart ! Now we are going to have all the SOE evils rehashed again. Way to go! Heh, seriously though. I never have understood the hate that forum posters conjure up. Sure, I was unhappy with the direction that SWG went as well. I canceled. End of story. I'm not sure where the thinking that company x is next to sainthood and company y is one step away from a deal with the devil comes from. Hello! All companies have one goal in mind. Make money. Most companies want to make as much money as they can as quickly as they can. It's the way a capitalistic system works. Perhaps sometime in the future there will be MMO's ran by non-profit groups, but for now; they're all the same. If the perceived actions of one company are deemed to be worse than another, it's only because you don't know what the other has been up to.
Heh, yeah just kinda pulled that one from thin air. But you never know.
I could see PETA making some sort of MMO. Or maybe Sierra Club. MMO's are the new frontier of mass-media. Pretty soon everyone will want a piece of the action. Instead of the nightly news we'll be told to login to CBS's news-oriented MMO, so that we can experience the news first-hand.
a. I am not a female dog. I find your choice description of a sector of the community sad.
b. Played Galaxies from release, left when they sold an expansion, then less than a moth later unleashed the trainwreck that continues to be NGE.
I have "enjoyed" first hand the arrogance of SoE. I have watched the work my guild mates put into developing a city, player economy, and professions be destroyed over night by this company.
I am glad YOU have faith in them. Alot of us don't, maybe you need to get over it too? There are going to be a fair ammount of potential paying subscribers that will shy away from this game for no other reason than SoE is "apart" of the team now.
But look at it this way, You will have plenty of server space to enjoy with out us.
Originally posted by Seloth a. I am not a female dog. I find your choice description of a sector of the community sad. b. Played Galaxies from release, left when they sold an expansion, then less than a moth later unleashed the trainwreck that continues to be NGE. I have "enjoyed" first hand the arrogance of SoE. I have watched the work my guild mates put into developing a city, player economy, and professions be destroyed over night by this company. I am glad YOU have faith in them. Alot of us don't, maybe you need to get over it too? There are going to be a fair ammount of potential paying subscribers that will shy away from this game for no other reason than SoE is "apart" of the team now. But look at it this way, You will have plenty of server space to enjoy with out us.
lol, yes lag certainly isn't going to be an issue, not upon release anyway, who knows the game might be "uber" then eveyone might run back with their tails between their legs.
I tihnk some of you guys are mis understanding the WOW market. I subscribed to wow as something to get me through, but I can't see anyone hanging on to that game very long. To classify it as a mainstream game and thus very little will like vanguard is a complete fallacy.
Originally posted by Morneblade True enough about the WOW forums, all you needed was a key code from a previous game. However, how long did it take for WoW to hit 1 million subs? Wasn't long. Name a MMO that does not have a forum? And as I said its about the only way you can get any idea of a interest in a game that has not been released. And as I said, it's only a ballpark figure, and by no means exact.
Thought I would re-reply (heh, is that a word?) to this one Morneblade as I found another one.
Current MMO's without a forum: FFXI DAoC
Upcoming MMO's that plan to not have a forum: Vanguard (currently has an official forum, but says it will be shut-down when the game come out) Warhammer Online (does not offer a forum on the official site)
Originally posted by zegeroth I tihnk some of you guys are mis understanding the WOW market. I subscribed to wow as something to get me through, but I can't see anyone hanging on to that game very long. To classify it as a mainstream game and thus very little will like vanguard is a complete fallacy.
The WoW people and Vanguard people are very diffenent players. WoW is easy, very quick leveling (mostly solo) then some PvP and Raids, Raids Raids. Vanguard is going progress much slower, have alot more time sinks and most things that WoW players take for granted (such as traveling) will be "inconvienient", to say the least. If WoW was just a flash in the pan, the Subs would have been going down a year afterward, not going up. Personally I dont consider WoW to be a very good game at all, but it apparently appeals the the "new MMOGer", younger kids that have been told they have ADD, and eat way too much junk and have no patience. The old schoolers will leave WoW if they find something else they like better, or are sitting on the sidelines (like I am), but some of them won't be looking at investing the kind of time they sunk into EQ, so Vanguard wont be a option for them either (people like me). If WoW had had a peak and then a consistent drop off I would agree, but it's been steadily climbing, unfortunatly. Now we will get a slew of WoW clones from devs. Eww
Originally posted by dragonace Originally posted by Morneblade True enough about the WOW forums, all you needed was a key code from a previous game. However, how long did it take for WoW to hit 1 million subs? Wasn't long. Name a MMO that does not have a forum? And as I said its about the only way you can get any idea of a interest in a game that has not been released. And as I said, it's only a ballpark figure, and by no means exact. Thought I would re-reply (heh, is that a word?) to this one Morneblade as I found another one.Current MMO's without a forum: FFXIUpcoming MMO's that plan to not have a forum: Vanguard (currently has an official forum, but says it will be shut-down when the game come out) Warhammer Online (does not offer a forum on the official site)
i could be wrong, but if my memory servers me i believe Daoc doesn't have official forums either.
You are right angerr. Does anyone know if they had a forum at one time? It looks like now they have a feedback form you can fill out to get your questions answered.
Kinda makes sense since Mythic is the one doing Warhammer Online as well.
So, that means we are up to 4 total then. 2 current and 2 upcoming MMo's that don't host official forums. I'll edit my post to add DAoC as well.
Either way, SOE or no SOE, the game is Sigil's not SOE's.
I think it will suprise you how many people will play if the game is a good game. IF, as I am not a tester I have no clue how it is going right now.
Also, once it is on Sony Station you will get people coming over from other games to play. It will not be a barren wasteland (like SWG is) where you do nto see anybody for hours.
What I thought was my only hope for a real MMORPG has turned to crap. SOE will never get another dime from me. To all that have not yet experienced the unethical business practices of SOE, and general hate for their customers. Just wait and you will.No doubt.
1) I've seen people complain about the Vanguard Beta, and alot of the complains have been about how incomplete the game is. From what I can tell, these Beta "Reviews" don't really line up with what I've been told all along: Vanguard Beta is gonna be run differently than most Betas.
/shrug
When I first started getting a little interest in the game, and looking at Beta info, they said that they were planning for a very long Beta. They told me their goals for each phase, and that they will not have most of the FEATURES in the game at the start of Beta. That's not what I'm used to. o.O I'm used to relatively complete games, all the core elements set in stone, and the only thing I was there to do was to find bugs and report them.
From what was told from the get go, was that they weren't going to use Beta like that. They were hoping to use the Beta phase of Vanguard to test out their ideas to make sure they mesh, tweak and change things that worked on paper but not in practice, and finish with a game people want to play. So really, I can't believe either the "ZOMG!!!1!one! Vanguard is Jesus on Microchips" Beta reviews or the "This game is terrible, I'd never subject my worst enemy to it's tedium" Beta reviews. At most I'd listen to the "It's not quite finished yet, wait till then"....(Not to mention everyone telling us this is breaking the NDA)
2) I don't need Vanguard to be a smash hit, omg GTFO WOW, to have fun and enjoy the game. If it's good and I want to play it, all I care is that there are enough subscribers to keep the game minutely profitable, and enough players to maintain the critical mass of the server I'm on. Personally, I don't really want the Lag fest and server queues of WoW. It's popularity is really what is crippling that game.
But then, I'm not worried...if it is a good game, and I would want to play it...then I'm sure that other people will want to play it as well. If I don't want to play it then I really don't see the purpose in running around telling everyone about how crappy it is and trying to "Convert them" or proove to them with logical proofs that they aren't having fun (which is what I always see happening). I follow the game because it's features sound interesting and I'm looking for a little innovation in an industry which has gone a little astray (in my opinion). If it's teh suck, I won't buy it and I'll look for something else.
And it's been said before. If Vanguard (or any MMO for that matter) can just get 5% of WoW's community to subscribe to their game, they are turning a profit and are considered successful. Not ever bad has to be the Beatles. Not every painting has to be the Mona Lisa, and god damn it....not every MMO has to be WoW. And the ones that aren't a Mop Top Supergroup, a Masterpiece, or a Mainstream MMORPG....they aren't necissarily terrible.
Comments
your right it is "anyones guess" and alot can change between now and release......i just don't think you can compare active players to forums subscribers, because most gamers don't even use the forums.
BTW are you sure wow had millions? because you don't have to register to their forums and they certainly didn't have millions at release, that i am sure. coh/cov i really don't know so i will give you the benefit of the doubt.
read this http://www.vanguardsoh.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1044304#post1044304 then come back and talk to me about the vanguard/soe fiasco.....
I'm agreeing with angerr on this one.
A little scavenger hunt/contest for you (or anyone else that wants to try). Find some concrete numbers that show a comparison between official forum subscibers and actual subscribed players. (The numbers on mmorpgchart.com are close enough for the subscribed numbers - even though WoW is closer to 6 mil. now. )
Give a link to the site that gives the # for forum subscibers and then the # from mmorpgchart.com (or another link if it's numbers are used instead).
The reason that I say this is because it's long been assumed that the numbers on an official forum are the vocal MINORITY. If you could prove that NOT to be the case it would give those of us who do frequent the forums a lot more weight when discussing issues with developers.
Good Luck.
True enough about the WOW forums, all you needed was a key code from a previous game. However, how long did it take for WoW to hit 1 million subs? Wasn't long.
Name a MMO that does not have a forum?
And as I said its about the only way you can get any idea of a interest in a game that has not been released. And as I said, it's only a ballpark figure, and by no means exact.
I say they'd be stunned if they break the 200k mark.
Nobody's going to be the next WoW until maybe Warhammer. WoW will be like the Bulls with Jordan, nobody will come close until Jordan retires.
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
I can name 1 current and 1 future.
FFXI doesn't have an official forum
Vanguard won't have an official forum when it ships. They've been saying so for a long time now. They are telling people not to become attached to the "official" forum, but instead to find a home on some fan site. Silky Venom is one of the bigger ones, but there are plenty to chose from.
(corrected some spelling errors)
The numbers from mmorpgchart are from 1/06, so they are not up to date. I could send a couple links go forums like CoH that keep track of the member numbers, but if the game has been out for a couple years, the numbers are going to be pretty scewed. Member that have quit long ago will still show up. So it's a little more accurate to compare numbers at release, which is what I was doing.
Good point about forums, to a extent. Yeah, alot of people don't post on the forums and if dev's listened to everything they heard, things would be very bad. Still there are alot more that go and read and not post that post. They are registered uses as well. And of course there are people that dont even know about the forums. But as I said it's about the only way to get a "idea" of the number of people that might be purchasing the game.
Yeah.. MMORPGCHART isn't updated. They haven't done any updates in over a year.. like July 2005 actually.
I just thought of a great marketing slogan...
"Play Vanguard. $OE hasn't screwed it up.... yet"
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
But see, that's the problem. Without some link or site to verify the numbers you've posted, then we only have your word to go on. I have no reason to doubt your word, but when basing an arguement on numbers it's a good idea to back them up with some kind of source. (Like you did with the numbers from mmorpgchart.com)
I can view the number (or at least I think it's the right number) for Vanguard's site from their member list. It's actually around 74,000 (perhaps I'm looking at something wrong, since you posted 83,000 before).
Like I said earlier, if some correlation between forum numbers and subscribers could be attained I think it would be in our best interest as regular forum members.
Actually, he just posted an update on April 11, 2006 explaining just that. The figures that were used earlier are from Jan. 2006 (so not quite 6 months off). He is supposed to be doing a full update anytime now.
nice deep, complex game: wonderful!
Devs that have a clue: outstanding!
Any game with SoE on the box: pass.
(I am not going to help those clowns make a dime. When my SWG (now refugees in WoW) heard that SoE was the publisher, they said almsot universally "No thanks, got burned once by SoE.)
Oh great, VixenHeart ! Now we are going to have all the SOE evils rehashed again. Way to go!
Heh, seriously though. I never have understood the hate that forum posters conjure up. Sure, I was unhappy with the direction that SWG went as well. I canceled. End of story.
I'm not sure where the thinking that company x is next to sainthood and company y is one step away from a deal with the devil comes from. Hello! All companies have one goal in mind. Make money. Most companies want to make as much money as they can as quickly as they can. It's the way a capitalistic system works.
Perhaps sometime in the future there will be MMO's ran by non-profit groups, but for now; they're all the same. If the perceived actions of one company are deemed to be worse than another, it's only because you don't know what the other has been up to.
Lol @ non-profit groups.
"Save the Animals MMORPG" lol
Heh, yeah just kinda pulled that one from thin air. But you never know.
I could see PETA making some sort of MMO. Or maybe Sierra Club. MMO's are the new frontier of mass-media. Pretty soon everyone will want a piece of the action. Instead of the nightly news we'll be told to login to CBS's news-oriented MMO, so that we can experience the news first-hand.
a. I am not a female dog. I find your choice description of a sector of the community sad.
b. Played Galaxies from release, left when they sold an expansion, then less than a moth later unleashed the trainwreck that continues to be NGE.
I have "enjoyed" first hand the arrogance of SoE. I have watched the work my guild mates put into developing a city, player economy, and professions be destroyed over night by this company.
I am glad YOU have faith in them. Alot of us don't, maybe you need to get over it too? There are going to be a fair ammount of potential paying subscribers that will shy away from this game for no other reason than SoE is "apart" of the team now.
But look at it this way, You will have plenty of server space to enjoy with out us.
Srato Ed: SWG,EQ,EQII,EVE,GW,GWF,WOW
Originally posted by Morneblade
True enough about the WOW forums, all you needed was a key code from a previous game. However, how long did it take for WoW to hit 1 million subs? Wasn't long.
Name a MMO that does not have a forum?
And as I said its about the only way you can get any idea of a interest in a game that has not been released. And as I said, it's only a ballpark figure, and by no means exact.
Thought I would re-reply (heh, is that a word?) to this one Morneblade as I found another one.
Current MMO's without a forum:
FFXI
DAoC
Upcoming MMO's that plan to not have a forum:
Vanguard (currently has an official forum, but says it will be shut-down when the game come out)
Warhammer Online (does not offer a forum on the official site)
i could be wrong, but if my memory servers me i believe Daoc doesn't have official forums either.
read this http://www.vanguardsoh.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1044304#post1044304 then come back and talk to me about the vanguard/soe fiasco.....
You are right angerr. Does anyone know if they had a forum at one time? It looks like now they have a feedback form you can fill out to get your questions answered.
Kinda makes sense since Mythic is the one doing Warhammer Online as well.
So, that means we are up to 4 total then. 2 current and 2 upcoming MMo's that don't host official forums. I'll edit my post to add DAoC as well.
Morneblade, haven't heard back for awhile. I was counting on you to do the math for the comparison between forum members and subscribtion members.
I've been doing my job. (Granted you had the harder job. What can I say, I'm lazy.)
From the post a few up from this one I've listed 4 MMO's that don't have forums (2 current and 2 up-coming). Remember you asked to name you one.
Either way, SOE or no SOE, the game is Sigil's not SOE's.
I think it will suprise you how many people will play if the game is a good game. IF, as I am not a tester I have no clue how it is going right now.
Also, once it is on Sony Station you will get people coming over from other games to play. It will not be a barren wasteland (like SWG is) where you do nto see anybody for hours.
never get another dime from me. To all that have not yet experienced
the unethical business practices of SOE, and general hate for their customers.
Just wait and you will. No doubt.
Two major issues....
1) I've seen people complain about the Vanguard Beta, and alot of the complains have been about how incomplete the game is. From what I can tell, these Beta "Reviews" don't really line up with what I've been told all along: Vanguard Beta is gonna be run differently than most Betas.
/shrug
When I first started getting a little interest in the game, and looking at Beta info, they said that they were planning for a very long Beta. They told me their goals for each phase, and that they will not have most of the FEATURES in the game at the start of Beta. That's not what I'm used to. o.O I'm used to relatively complete games, all the core elements set in stone, and the only thing I was there to do was to find bugs and report them.
From what was told from the get go, was that they weren't going to use Beta like that. They were hoping to use the Beta phase of Vanguard to test out their ideas to make sure they mesh, tweak and change things that worked on paper but not in practice, and finish with a game people want to play. So really, I can't believe either the "ZOMG!!!1!one! Vanguard is Jesus on Microchips" Beta reviews or the "This game is terrible, I'd never subject my worst enemy to it's tedium" Beta reviews. At most I'd listen to the "It's not quite finished yet, wait till then"....(Not to mention everyone telling us this is breaking the NDA)
2) I don't need Vanguard to be a smash hit, omg GTFO WOW, to have fun and enjoy the game. If it's good and I want to play it, all I care is that there are enough subscribers to keep the game minutely profitable, and enough players to maintain the critical mass of the server I'm on. Personally, I don't really want the Lag fest and server queues of WoW. It's popularity is really what is crippling that game.
But then, I'm not worried...if it is a good game, and I would want to play it...then I'm sure that other people will want to play it as well. If I don't want to play it then I really don't see the purpose in running around telling everyone about how crappy it is and trying to "Convert them" or proove to them with logical proofs that they aren't having fun (which is what I always see happening). I follow the game because it's features sound interesting and I'm looking for a little innovation in an industry which has gone a little astray (in my opinion). If it's teh suck, I won't buy it and I'll look for something else.
And it's been said before. If Vanguard (or any MMO for that matter) can just get 5% of WoW's community to subscribe to their game, they are turning a profit and are considered successful. Not ever bad has to be the Beatles. Not every painting has to be the Mona Lisa, and god damn it....not every MMO has to be WoW. And the ones that aren't a Mop Top Supergroup, a Masterpiece, or a Mainstream MMORPG....they aren't necissarily terrible.
BTW....I blame this on American Idol.