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SOE: analysis and predictions
xPaladin
Member UncommonPosts: 741
I'm awfully bored tonight, so I decided to play analyst for a bit (wait, I am an analyst!) and make a few SOE predictions. The first half of this will be fairly general information but it's necessary for an analysis. Skip down to "The Predictions" if you're lazy.
Where they are
- SOE definitely has good market share in North America still, where SOE games (read as "subscribers") make up for ~25%-33% of the market. This is naturally spread out across all games they have, but EQ and EQ2 remain their top leading products.
- SOE's player reputation is poor, but they have very good customer retention. It's difficult to put a number on this, but their brands keep customers coming back.
- SOE's customer service has a reviled reputation.
- The CEO of SOE has recently begun a PR blitz, which is generally well received.
- They're starting to get a reputation for having the best PvP game
currently out -- EQ2. Nobody could've predicted this, since EQ2 was
originally to be a cooperative game. However, WoW's advent gave SOE the
"inspiration" it needed to throw in a cheap but totally effective and very well designed PvP
system, reminiscent of old school FFA PvP, but with a faction-setting. The PvP is so well received that plans are out there for a third faction (!) to enter the fray. Even more interesting, and perhaps critical to the survival of SOE, is that the PvP is pulling players away from WoW.
Core Competencies
- They realize that they have to appeal to the playerbase. EQ2's foray into this field is to try to make player specific content and lots (and I mean lots) of rankings.
- They believe that the future of MMOs is more or less action oriented gameplay.
- They also believe that the future of PvP is world-driven hardcore PvP.
- They have a supreme architexture. They support a great number of users across several different games simultaneously with less lag than (in comparison) the overburdened WoW networks.
Where the games are
- SWG got the ToOW and with it, the NGE.
- Matrix Online (MXO) got two combat revamps.
- Planetside is more or less on its own.
- EQ1 is business as usual.
- EQ2 got PvP added in, two expansions and some episodic content.
- Vanguard is being added to the SOE banner, but still outside control of SOE (we'll see how long that lasts).
The Competition
- Blizzard's WoW is of course throwing all games into upheaval, and SOE's felt the most brunt from it. It managed to foray into the as-of-then untapped casual player market, and attracted a lot of old and new casual players to the market. Unfortunately, WoW's PvP has become lackluster and exploitable in the eyes of many -- the honor system was never fully accepted by the playerbase, and "the grind to grand marshal" is so tediously boring that those that achieve it ebay their accounts. Worse yet, the casual players are being abandoned in the end game, where raiding for equipment is the literal equivocacy of a full time job. The cracks in the WoW steam engine are starting to show, but it remains to be seen whether or not Blizzard can prevent an explosion. The pieces are in place for them to do just that -- they have very solid plans for their expansion which have calmed a lot of nerves. But only time will tell if they can get it done fast enough.
- NCSoft is the other big competitor, and they're more or less centered on the Asian market. They've yet to truly establish themselves here in the US outside of the Guild Wars series, of which they're earning very little (if anything) from. Their major product is the Lineage franchise, and it's not very well received by the North American market, despite being good games. It has a pretty strong PvP contingent.
- Red 5 studios, IMO, is the greatest threat to everyone atm, but they're flying low under the radar. They're ex-Blizzard devs, and more or less the conceptual brain behind the gameplay of WoW. Even more interesting is that they purchased an Offset engine license for their MMO. The Offset engine isn't generally popular amongst programmers, who acknowledge it as mere eye candy. They're planning something -- big.
- Mythic Entertainment comes roaring back with the announcement of Warhammer online, which has a PvP focus. This has all the hardcore PvPers ears up, because that demographic has been starving for a PvP centric game (SWG, Lineage II, Darkfall, Vanguard, etc). But that is to be expected -- what's more interesting is that even the softcore PvPers are interested in this game, thanks in large part to the success of DAoC and the advent of PvP in WoW. Mythic's poor reputation does harm the game pre-emptively however, but with a solid team of designers, Warhammer could ultimately wind up being the WoW killer.
- Bioware is also making a MMO, and they have a fanbase that will nab them some subscriptions. However, they've been slowly chipping away at that fanbase with their games, as they're seen as one of the last true RPG makers. Recently their forays into action RPGs (ARPGs) has many veterans concerned that the RPG genre is on a limited lifespan. Many fans are watching the MMO with hopes that it will indeed stick to the notion of classic RPGs -- but if it turns into a WoW type game, I would expect a huge outcry from fans and the game to bomb (a slow death, anyway).
- Turbine came from near-death and released Dungeons and Dragons Online. The game is doing better than expected, but only because a majority of the playerbase are treating it as a "phase game," aka, something to do with friends while waiting on the next great game. Turbine is therefore taking a risk and putting PvP into the game, which should be interesting -- but ultimately not enough to save it from its imminent demise. The shut down of AC2 is a huge morale loss, and caused many stalwart Turbine supporters to question how long their other titles will be around. Some players claim that AC1 is still going strong, but the numbers just don't back it up.
- Humorously enough, I have to list Sony Online Entertainment here in the competitive list. They have a wide variety of games, and it's just not possible to play all the games equally. Even worse, there's yea-so-many games to yea-so-many developers, so it's an expensive and painful upkeep. In many ways, while SOE is doing good by having such a great deal (the All Access Pass), they've also made themselves their own worst nightmare.
The Predictions
- If the PS3 bombs badly, SOE is in very deep trouble. At a minimum, they're in for some very rough times. This is unlikely to happen, and Sony Corp is aware of this, but their lackluster presence at E3 is almost considered arrogant (plus, an FMV trailer for MGS4 was not believed by many to be FMV -- that's a time bomb waiting to blow). It's possible we could see the word "Verant" again sometime down the line.
- SOE is going to press forward with being a host for online games, especially with their Launchpad service coming out for PS3 -- designed to rival xbox live. Admittingly, it's a great market to be in (it kinda has all those PS3 players by the balls) and all they can really do is laugh their collective asses off all the way to the bank in the process.
- SOE will be overburdened soon, if they aren't already. IMO they've got too much on their plate trying to keep all their all-access pass games functional and continually updated. I would expect for some games to be cut off from SOE development and be outsourced to other companies. This is especially true if SOE wants to be truly competitive in one game -- a lot of resources will have to go in one direction, and other games will suffer as a result (If a BioWare SWG was to be made, this is probably how it would be done).
- SWG will most likely get a fourth revamp which will turn into a full-fledged MMOFPS. Some might curse the idea, but it's the only viable path they have to "save SWG" and it would likely succeed if it is done right.
- Their newly founded "players first" attitude, while admirable, is still going to be met with skepticism. SOE has to deliver on their promises and make customer service a core competency. In the past, they were able to get away with allowing it to slide, because they dominated the competition. I'm mixed on this. SOE's history is one of taking this stance and then shooting themselves in the foot. I doubt much will change. It'll be interesting to see if they finally break this curse, but I ain't about to hold my breath.
- Unless they get some serious innovation going in these SOE games, Warhammer is going to eat SOE alive. Other games will chip and nick at SOE's armor, but Warhammer is the lethal poison (rank VI) that will slay the monster. Luckily SOE has quite a while before Warhammer becomes a serious threat, but they have to figure out an innovative PvP strategem to be competitive with that game. I'd say that, since innovation isn't a SOE strong point, we can expect WoW-type battlegrounds in SWG (not like Restuss) and EQ2.
- SOE can (and will) be forgiven by players, but if and only if they mix up their tactics and take a true player first, good gameplay approach. This might be laughable to some, but just take one look at Microsoft. Murphy had a law for this as well -- "success forgives all sins."
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
Comments
Originally posted by xPaladin
"They've yet to truly establish themselves here in the US outside of the Guild Wars series, of which they're earning very little (if anything) from. "
See now.. thats just wrong. Guild Wars carried Ncsoft more than anyone prediected.. so its making alot more money than what people think.
Someone back me up that is slightly more inlightened :P
Ironically, I get the feeling that GW players would love to pay a nominal sub fee -- it's a very loyal playerbase.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
NCSoft also has CoV/CoH which has a playerbase that's not exactly small.
Also, I'm not sure how the "Mythic has a bad reputation" thing came from but every person I've ever talked to about Mythic and DAoC (since DAoC was released) has always listed them as a company that doesn't SOE it's customers. Perhaps we just talk to two seperate types of people.
As for forgiving SOE if they start making/doing what they seem to have promised (Anyone remember them promising the same shit during the EQ riots? Look what happened there). I won't be and I know a ton of people who won't either. But you're right and put another way. SOE will sucker people foolish enough to go back.
For me just making a good game isn't enough anymore. The company needs to stand behind it's product and deliver on content (not just fucking the customers out of money for expansions). They must have good or atleast decent CS and I have to feel confident that they aren't going to do something utterly stupid to the game like completely gut it's core systems for instance. There are other things I look for but to put it simply. SOE will NEVER EVER change. They keep screwing the customers, throw them a bone to draw shmucks back, rinse and repeat.
Just my opinion though.
Good read, nice piece and good thorough thinking. Sadly I doubt very seriously that SONY will ever go in the drain and I'm sure that the PS3 will sell fine. Why? Because, little johnny will pester his parents to death for a PS3 until they want to kill him. There sure are a lot of little Johnny's in the world.
Maybe the should bring the servers down to one then at least one server will have some people on it.
This was a perfectly good game they destroyed, maybe there lose will be compensated by Vanguard
------------------------------
Carpe Diem
Greetz
MisterT
Just on Bioware. I'd point out NWN, I know its not a MMO and I know its no where near as complicated as one but they have shown how well they can support a community with it. They were constantly releasing little add ons and were very supportive of player created ones. I don't know if they will make an MMO that I'd play but I do know they will communicate with their player base well and of all the companies you listed they are the most likely to do something that lets players add content themselves.
Oh and you can add me to the list on not beliving SoE will change and never trying another of their games or a game they publish either.
1. $OE does NOT have a third of the player base. Not even close. Bliz is 1, NC Soft is 2 then everyone else is grabbing at scraps with EQ2 and EQ doing OK. $OE is despirately trying to gain more conrtol by getting their mitts on Vanguard and Gods and Heroes. They're also praying they can get their mitts on the TRUE $OE killer...
2. Star Trek Online. That's the future 2000lb gorilla in $OE's future, not Warhammer. Yeah, Warhammer will shake up the MMO industry, but it'll hurt WoW more than EQ2. Why? Because on launch Warhammer will pull 2 million plus people from WoW. EQ2 has only 300k subscribers. Why? Because next to the D&D name, Warhammer is the GOLD standard of a fantasy game setting. It's what WoW really tried to be. D&D online was a failure, War will be a true game, that has not only improved PVP that the kiddies love, but a great and rich PVE system as well.
STO will put the final nail in SWG. That's why Smed is making an end run on running the game, just like Gods and Heroes (same developer). If he can get a piece of it, it won't effect his bottom line as much. He's dying for a piece of STO, because it will be THE sci-fi mmo to beat.
The only way $OE can fix themselves is to follow the path they forged in being a distributor, not a developer. We'll see if they can actually keep a "hands off" relationship with the games they just got their paws on. I highly doubt it.
That, and the PS3 launchpad is ALL their baby. That'll be a big money stream.
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
There are reasons why Anet can afford to run the game it does.
- Majority of income for MMOs comes from box sales. Subscriptions are only covering the running costs of administrative stuff, bandwidth, support, customer service, etc.(Compare that to thousands/10 thousands people involved in running WoW only in support/on-site)
- Instanced desisgn allows Anet to run the game with minimal to no involvement, and the design is extremly scalable.
- Due to completely controlled environments (max. num. of players, fixed databases, extremly well planned additions and extensions, long development times) their overhead costs are negligible. Anet is running just like offline game companies. And those survive just fine, even without monthly fees.
- Majority/all billing/administration is managed by PlayNC
- There is essentially no need for any in-game support, apart from the usual technical issues, which are handled as all offline games are, by a small, centralized support department.
- Anet has several times expressed honest surprise over their success. The ammount of money they made and the image they created (perfect publishin, honest CSR, perfect delivery plan) has IMHO exceeded the original plans, and having a startup create completely new IP, new company and new business model, while being almost direct competition to WoW is something to be proud of, and is most likely unplanned.
American and Euro markets are not prime targets for PlayNC, which isn't surprising given the Korean origin of the company. US and American markets would not survive the fee. The ammount of content and gamestyle is the same as Diablo, where the access was free as well. Many of GW players came from there, and as such would be put off with subscription model. In addition, free access has more of a psychological apeal, rather than practical. You can quit for weeks/months, and come back in an instance. It gives a certain sense of security, and keeps you in the comunity. In subscription based models, once it runs out, you're out.
Sure:
1 years sales of Guild Wars Boxes @ $50/box was roughly 1.75 million copies.
50x1,750,000 = $87,500,000
Not bad at all considering EQ2 doesn't even come close to rivaling that income and it charges a monthly fee. Not to mention, because it's free to play, they're less likely to "lose" any customers or "alienate" any customers due to poor customer service. After all, "it's just a game" is a lot more palateable when you aren't paying a monthly fee for it.
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
No it's not. Most people who play Guild Wars play it specifically because it has no monthly fee. If a Monthly fee suddenly appeared probably half the people playing would abandon it. And sales would dry up.
My wife and I bought Guild Wars specifically BECAUSE there was no monthly fee. The fact that we like the game so much is because it's a good game. But the "no monthly fee" was the hook that got us to buy it. Otherwise I'd never have owned it. And I am a long time MMORPG player. But Guild Wars with a monthly fee? Nah it wouldn't be worth it.
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
$medley would do questionable things with a donkey if it'd make SWG half as financialy successful as GW! Then again who says he hasn't?
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience"
CS Lewis
Please explain WHERE you get the idea that Mythic has a bad reputation? They have one of the best Reps in the MMORPG market. DAOC is still a huge success and has held a strong and steady playerbase despite the outbreak of WOW. In fact, DAOC Reps are reporting that subscriber numbers for DAOC have been climbing slowly but steadily since last year. That doesn't sound like a company with a bad reputation to me.
In fact most people will state that Mythic is one of the BEST MMORPG companies out there and has a proven record of dedication to quality in their games. Such dedication, in fact, that they canned a game just because they didn't feel it would be "good enough".
No, I think Mythic's rep will help them a lot more than it will hinder them. They have even been developing a huge rep with their players of being one of the few companies that really listens to their players. For the past several months every single major patch has been directly due to player feedback. Also, Mythic's quality control is still superb... their patches, even the huge ones, rarely have many bugs and what few do sneak into live get fixed very quickly.
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
PE Has announced that SOE will not produce market or publish STO. PE will itself do all of that for STO. SOE can try but honestly I do not think they would. For instance Marvel and DC are comming out with MMO's DC will be run by SOE Marvel won't (thank god). SOE doesn't want to compete with itself, which is why, IMHO, they would never market STO vs SWG.
NCSoft is the other big competitor, and they're more or less centered on the Asian market. They've yet to truly establish themselves here in the US outside of the Guild Wars series, of which they're earning very little (if anything) from. Their major product is the Lineage franchise, and it's not very well received by the North American market, despite being good games. It has a pretty strong PvP contingent.
I just wanted to point out that guild wars orginally sold over 1 million copies globally with 500k+ in the US market. That CoH/CoV had over 100K subscribers. That is a significant US playerbase.
I dont do Lineage but I do do Guild Wars and would like to say that I would put guild wars pvp up against soe's all day long, everyday and take guild wars hands down. It is simply a masterpiece of interaction and fun. It is the most fun in a game I have had.
Nothing any soe product offers at all intrigues me to fork over a subscription fee to pay thunderheart, Garva, Smedley and the rest of those idiots salaries. If you pay SOE you support horrid business ethics. SOE management must go for me to even consider allowing a sony product to be considered in my household. TV's, movies, games, etc. I refuse to support them knowingly and make a point to avoid there products and let people know how sony treats its customers.
So what products do you buy ? Where do you shop ? What music labels do you support ? They are all in it for the money , They all want nothing more than your dollar . That is the bottom line .
Edit: And before the police come in saying Oh noes that has nothing to do with SWG . What does Sony VCR's have to do with freaking SWG ? Nothing ! Austin isn't in Japan last time I checked . The second someone brings up Bad buisness practices as their back up . You open the discussion and start the off topic charade . Do you actually think Sony Corp gives a damn what happens to SWG ? To them it is nothing . SOE's bank acount is Sonys pocket change , they give their child to go to the arcade .
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
SOE knows what you like... You don't!
And don't forget... I am forcing you to read this!
So what products do you buy ? Where do you shop ? What music labels do you support ? They are all in it for the money , They all want nothing more than your dollar . That is the bottom line .
Most companies are run with a set of principles and guidelines. Your jaded view of corporate goals is rather amusing. All they want is my money. Alot of people work for more then dollars. Most people choose a career doing what they love and get rewarded with monatary success. Hence, most corporations fundamentally exist to allow those people to live out a labor of there passion. I buy my coffee from starbucks who gets paid because they love making a great cup of coffee. I buy computers from Dell who like to make affordable, internet quality machines for the user, I buy guild wars because NC Soft wants to make a great pvp game for everyone to play. So on and so forth.
As with most video game manufacturers those developing games do it because its a fun, exciting career in a field most of them love to be a part of. However, those people are being ruined because SOE management is filled with incompetent, greedy slimy weasels. Every patch, communication, that soe does is geared towards not making great content for great video games but is a marketing tool. A ploy to sucker you into buying a pass to play there games.
I dont disagree that making money is important to a business but when its your singular focus above every other principle or goal as is with SOE you must lay down ethics. Releasing an expansion right before a major change wiped out player classes? Ethics are real short with SOE management. They have gotta go. Acting as if Sony doesn't notice its sister companies actions is an absurd statement. Sony knows it has image issues currently. Rootkits, soe, Tv's, PS3's. It needs to address the issues of its management and I think they are working on it.
Rootkits, swg all I can say is Ethics are not at all part of this company and many companies like NC Soft pride themselves on customer relations and high ethical standards for there products.
Second.. PE says NOW they won't go with $OE. They still have over a year of development at least. Anyone who thinks that is decided now is deluding themselves. If Gods and Heroes goes well for them, why wouldn't they? SWG will be dead in 6 months, there's not going to be competition.
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
@SOE vs NCSoft
I'd say they're about equal with SOE having slight leverage over NCSoft. It's very difficult to say because SOE is stingy with their numbers, but they do have pretty significant NorthAm market share. NCSoft definitely sells more products, but subscriber-wise it's a tough call.
@CoH/CoV + NCSoft
Yeah, that is correct -- CoH/V is a definitive NorthAm game for NCSoft. It has a good stock of players, but the content is not quite up to par with other MMO games. I'm willing to bet that it's a niche game for many at the moment, whom of which are waiting for something better to come along (similar to my commentary about DDO).
@Guild Wars pricing
Someone mentioned that NCSoft made $50/box from Guild Wars, earning $87.5 million dollars. While I'm sure they wish that was the case, they probably made 1/8th that amount and probably 80% or more of that was eaten by developmental costs. The danger with the GW scheme is that they take extreme risk of EQ'ing it -- making tons of expansions and barring entry. It can be averted, but eventually they'll jump the shark. They're playing with fire. Their playerbase is not one that wants to feel ripped off in any capacity.
It's an effective marketing scheme, sure, but it's limiting in its own capacity. It takes money to make money. I'd look for them to try to boost revenue using non-standard means such as item purchases, episodic content, minimods (most likely), or something equally controversial. Not anytime soon especially with Factions just being released not long ago but it's bound to happen.
@Mythic's reputation
Their reputation is mixed, but they do have a reputation for swinging the nerf bat. It's not as pronounced as SOE hate, but it's still there and will rear it's head. They also lost a bit of player credibility (represented by subscriptions in this case) with the Atlantis expansion pack. They'd be doing even better than they are now if not for past sins. I'm not saying they're doomed, rather that they're walking on the hot sands next to the eggshells. They can't afford any mistakes.
@Bioware's NWN
Yeah they've shown they can maintain a game beautifully, but NWN is not a MMORPG. It's a whole other ballgame. Personally I hope they can keep that benefactor (yes, pun) status up with their MMORPG. They're on par with Blizzard in terms of giving toolsets and free content (WC3/SC maps) to their playerbase, but even Blizzard had to scale back a little for WoW. We'll see.
@SWG vs (STO vs WAR)
Star Trek Online unfortunately has signs of bad design off the bat. An early-on focus on PvE is a fatal mistake in what are usually tight deadlines. Comparatively speaking, shipping a MMO without PvP is like shipping a single player game. Regardless of that fact, it looks like STO is repeating the same fatal mistakes made by SWG in its conception, and will therefore likely just be a franchise niche game. Remember -- Star Trek games have had a similar history to those of Star Wars games. Some good titles (Elite Forces), some mediocre titles (Bridge Commander), and some downright horrific titles (Armada -- the only game I've ever seen being bargain bin'd for $1, ouch).
Warhammer, in contrast, looks to be a PvP-focused game. It's capitalizing on the mainstream established market and trying to further delve into the depths of the non-RPG market. WoW only scratched the surface and the PvP there is generally thought to be lacking, so it's slowly but steadily creating a new PvP-specific market which WAR will eat alive. Darkfall might still get in on it if they're fast enough, but they're not Mythic Entertainment, and as such, they're struggling to get it going in the proper direction (a lot of DFO fans call it "vaporware").
This is a large part of the reason Sony did a complete 180 on EQ2 PvP. Competitive online play is a huge market in FPS games, and since that market is crossing over to RPGs, there's a feeling they're not properly tapped. Not surprising, because PvP was effectively dumbed down from the old days of FFA. There's now a slow and steady regression back to the more hardcore environments, starting, ironically enough, with EQ2. Once the good elements of "the old days" are effectively merged with modern playability concepts, we'll have another WoW on our hands.
@SOE as a "distribution" service
Yes, SOE will push their publishing platform especially in light of the Launchpad service. It will allow for cross-platform distribution between the PC and PS3. I don't think existing games (SWG et al) will be ported to console anytime this year or next, since they'll be facing some major architexture changes in the process (Vista/DX10 on top of PS3 porting, which is pain incarnate). It's more likely that next gen (new) stuff will get posted instead.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
Slight, I don't think so. Maybe if you took the overseas sales out they'd be close... but Lineage is the only game that gives WoW a run for its money.
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
Reason being is that SOE is more or less focused on the NorthAm market. Comparing Asian gamers to NorthAm gamers is not apples-apples in the least. It might sound a little discriminatory, but it's a core cultural difference that boils down into games.
Interestingly enough, I suspect it will be a much more level playing field some time in the future. Especially so if competitive online gaming ever truly picks up in America. It can happen, but only if industry leaders make it happen (stuff like G4TV is just doomed from the start).
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
One thing alot of people overlook about CoH/CoV. Alot of its players like that supposed lack of content. For example the fact there isn't a loot based economy or any economy at all is one of the reasons I play it. Its combat system is also by far the most entertaining of the MMOs I've played (EQ1, EQ2, FFXI, SWG, DAoC). Really it appeals to a type of player that isn't intrested in the majority of MMOs and will likely because of that be a good niche game for a while yet.
I know its not an MMO but one of those things they will do that SoE seriously lacks an understanding off is honestly communicate with their players and that will go a long way IMO.
CoH was released 6 months before WoW/EQ2. At release it was probably a transition game for many people waiting for these two, but I don’t think you can all it that now. If it were a transition game, the bulk of its subscribers would have gone ahead and transitioned by now. It’s established its core player base and I don’t see that changing significantly up or down for the next few years.
This is where SOE is transforming. Despite more numbers, SOE is notoriously bulky in all aspects.
The difference between PlayNC and SOE goes further though. PlayNC is international, SOE isn't. While PlayNC is expanding in highly diverse cultural regions (America, Europe, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Australia), SOE shrunk back to North American region. This is definitely not the way to go, especially not when going for MMO markets. Compare it to Blizzard and WoW, or Final Fantasy.
PlayNC also favors the Korean distribution model. Develop a simple, fun, easy to manage online game (not MMORPG, but fun online game that makes sense in multi-player concept). The result are several specialized and focused titles, which perfectly apeal to specific populations, without being labeled niche.
But SOE is build from top on around different principles. Where as SOE works strictly around ROI, typical Korean online model is: make a game, publish it, see if you can make money off it. While riskier, PlayNC is playing it quite safe. Their entire development is outsourced, all of their projects (bar Lineage perhaps) are lightweight, well recognizable, unique in theme and enjoy good reputation, without being overhyped. From longetivity perspective, that is the commonly accepted way to go.
Huge dinosaurs of MMORPGs that are celebrated today are evolutionary dead-ends. You cannot experiment or inovate when you have to maintain million players. The logistics of introducing changes, as well as maintainance itself skyrocket. There is essentially one MMORPG that made it big, and that is WoW. While a similar game might evolve at some point or another, I'm becoming more and more convinced, that future lies in simpler, aproachable games, that can easily translate between PC and console markets.
STO and Warhammer are not the answer. STO will fail, because its trying to bring ST universe to life. But there is no Star Trek universe. Who is better, Kirk or Picard?, is Q cool or evil, how should Ferengi be portrayed, should shapeshifter have permanent cloak, or is it just rogue with better tactical moves.
The memorable SW titles come from staying away from SW universe. The x-wing and tie fighter series were well received. While they did take place in SW universe, they focused on a very tiny portion, that was completely defined. Pod racer and other EP1 titles "failed". Why? They reconstructed scenes from the movies. KOTOR was once again part of universe, but didn't mimic it. It wrote its own story, defined its own characters, left room for imagination.
Same as games don't translate to movies, and vice-versa, MMOs based on IP should not try to emulate it. This is where the SWG has ultimately lost the fight. It's basing its content solely on existing elements (HK, BH, Jedi), rather than write its own story.
In that respect, with ST recreating the actual ships and places from the series, it doesn't promise to offer anything really apealing. I'm betting more on SGW, there is considerably more content available there.
But do prove me wrong, name a title that reuses the story from an existing IP, but is considered innovative and apealing.
Rekrul,
I'm not gonna give an example of an existing title but you got me thinking... and one I sure would love to see is DUNE!
Now I haven't read all the books, just the 3 first (and that was a long time ago), but I think one could make a very good MMORPG out of that universe
"There are two kinds of spurs, my friend. Those that come in by the door; those that come in by the window"