I agree with ianubisi completely. I mean, if he is using his own data to generate all these reports, the World of Warcraft population has lost some of its upward velocity but it isn't falling... This thread seems to assume that the individual population charts contradict the total population charts... I mean, yeah if for some reason he decided to work from two totally separate sets of data to generate the graphs then it might be possible.
I also agree with Pantastic. If you want to look for trends, look down that graph with the total populations. There are several peaks and valleys. The only difference is that this peak and its corresponding valley are a bit more extreme (and at a higher overall altitude). Now, if the decline continues it might be worth looking at but its like you're trying to claim it's a sustained trend.
A small note but when its summer people playing mmorpgs go down a little though not sure if people would keep their subscriptions running. I mean I remember being in a guild and the numbers dwarved around summertime and then grew again later in the year.
I agree with the analisys on the previous page quoting the splitting of the general genre as reason for a decline for some games and failure to attract expected revenues for some of the new titles.
Wow indeed is on the very casual side of the genre. Quick, satisfying, reasonably simple with a high 'bling' ratio.
Niche MMO's like SoR, Eve and others trend towards the sandbox ideal of many old style MMO players.
In the past, this dvidide was less pronounced. You had game that hung towards the sandbox side (UO for example) and games that hung towards the 'scripted' side (most of the rest of the mainstream euro-american releases). But the difference wasn't that large so as to speak of two different markets.
WoW has moved the bar on the arcade-style 'scirpted' type MMO. It is of very high quality, yet more extreme in being casual-friendly, easy and licked.
On the other hand we see more niche games catering to the sandbox gamestyle in whole new ways (Eve, SL, SoR, ATITD and others that combine new groundbreaking ideas into niceh games that actually do pretty well considering their level of production and investment).
What suffers is the middle ground. And that's exactly the games that lose the subscribers. The games that are either older and less pronounced, or are newer but lack distinctiveness when it comes to choosing one of the genres in which the old MMO genre seems to be splitting up. They can't compete with WoW when it comes to the strengths of that game, nor with the niche games when it comes to catering to those that like freedom and mallability.
Maybe in time things will return to the previous state, but I'd expect things to actually move further down this course, resulting in three subgenres for an MMO: arcade/casual, RPG/immersive and Sandbox/social.
Its no wonder that the games that try and cover two or all of these subgenres struggle to attract players that have the choice to go for a title specialising in one subgenre instead. They'll suffer relative to the days when there were no subgenres.
We're seeing the market mature, essentially. Early games did very well targeting generalist players, because there was not a lot of competition on the market. Those games are now in a hurting place - because of age, and also because of newer, more targeted games releasing.
Newer games like EQ2 that tried to copy the older model are underperforming expectations because they lack the targeted nature to compete - they are not as sandboxy as Eve or ATITD, nor as casual and "gamey" as WOW. I suspect future releases of this sort will follow the same trend. I also suspect many devs have already seen this "writing on the wall" - look at SOE's (failed, so far) attempt to revive SWG by rewriting it as a gamey-game; or Tabula Rasa's massive revision of their game (which, since it's happening while still in dev, might work better). Mythic's dropping Imperium for Warhammer might have as much to do with Imperium being designed on the EQ/DAOC model, and thus in danger, as it did with the power of the WH license; WH will be able to target people who loved WOW but want something new VERY well.
I would not look at individual MMO launch failures too closely. DnL and AA are both in danger, but the MMO history is full of rough launches, poor launches. The MMO industry is certainly getting more competitive, and the playerbase more demanding; but I would not worry when a few games flop. There will always be flops.
Look at other entertainment industries for where we're going from here. In movies: if you cannot compete with Superman, DON'T release the 4th of July weekend. If you cannot compete with WOW, DON'T release a game that's trying to.
The magazine industry is perhaps a better example, since it is also subscription based. You get some VERY big, mass media publications - compare WOW to Time magazine, and you see where I am going with this. Then you end up with smaller and smaller niche market publications, targeting smaller and smaller slices of the overall market. If you want to compete with Time and their ilk, you need BIG money, outstanding business practices, a polished appearance, and a magazine that will sell to the mass market.
Most MMOs coming out don't fit that bill.
Interesting correlary to this, though, is that it means smaller, more targeted niche games should start doing increasingly well. Like the magazine market, being able to pick up a smaller slice of market share by targeting a few customers VERY directly will enable smaller companies to compete, and bigger companies to succeed by having a stable of many targeted niche games.
Well, I've been a gamer for a while and mostly RPGs. Then I got introduced to EQ in like 2001 or something. Anyways, i played it for a few years and then quit and joined WoW right when it came out. Played that for a year and a half and, well, I got bored. It was interesting but I'm looking for more action. I mean, that's what draws me to games: I like the stories and the fighting.
Since then I've tried EVE-Online, and its a great game, but I want to see an actual space simulator MMO. I want to have joysticks and fast ships, I want a game where you have to have fast reactions and more skills then just button mashing. WoW tried to make battle more interesting by having more complex and in depth-AI. But in the end it was just a more complex button pattern that you had to press. Once you kill something its no longer a challenge and it gets boring.
Now I've quit EVE and I really don't know where to go anymore. I've looked at tons of games and many look interesting but none look like they're good enough for me to get back into one. Personally, I'd like to see some MMO's that really make use of joysticks in mech simulators, flight simulators, space simulators, and even ground combat simulators. No more of this *target* *click macro* crap.
Originally posted by Vhaln People might play less during the summer, but I doubt they'd stop playing entirely and cancel subscriptions.
The super-hardcore types couldn't even imagine letting their subscription lapse, but the 'game as a life' people are not the majority of the subscription numbers. But a lot of other people really don't care enough about a game to be worried about suspending a subscription while they don't really play the game. You might worry that you're going to fall behind the gear curve, and you'll miss those new raids and have to catch up, and your honor system rank will decay, but for someome who already doesn't play a lot they're already not at the top of gear, don't raid or don't raid the latest-and-greatest, and don't have the hours/day to keep up a serious honor system rank anyway.
If I'm a college student going from a free high-speed connection at school to an apartment during my summer job, why pay the premium for high-speed access and $15/month/game when I can just cancel for a few months and save up more? If I'm a working guy who's going to be fishing after work, why keep paying money for something I might play once or twice a month? If I have guild wars, why not just play that once every few weeks for free for my MMO fix instead of paying monthly some other sub? Unsubscribing for half a year from a $15/month game saves you $90; while not a huge amount of money, it's certainly a noticeable chunk.
Doubt all you want, but the subscription numbers consistently dip every summer, not just this one. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of people who leave an MMO in spring or summer time are going to just not bother finding a new one and subscribing when they're hardly even going to play it, they'll wait until winter.
Originally posted by SirBruce Originally posted by TeeBeeNZ The only thing MMOGCharts suggest is you're stupid enough to read them. The results they have are inaccurate, incomplete and frankly way off. I would have thought the website design would have hinted at its quality let alone to large chunk of missing data.
Wow, since you know they are way off, you must know the real numbers. So, do tell us, what's the REAL data? What's that? You don't know what you're talking about? That's what I thought.
Bruce
Don't worry, Bruce. You get used to them after a while. Everyone is a genius on the web.
Originally posted by Vhaln People might play less during the summer, but I doubt they'd stop playing entirely and cancel subscriptions.
The super-hardcore types couldn't even imagine letting their subscription lapse, but the 'game as a life' people are not the majority of the subscription numbers. But a lot of other people really don't care enough about a game to be worried about suspending a subscription while they don't really play the game. You might worry that you're going to fall behind the gear curve, and you'll miss those new raids and have to catch up, and your honor system rank will decay, but for someome who already doesn't play a lot they're already not at the top of gear, don't raid or don't raid the latest-and-greatest, and don't have the hours/day to keep up a serious honor system rank anyway.
If I'm a college student going from a free high-speed connection at school to an apartment during my summer job, why pay the premium for high-speed access and $15/month/game when I can just cancel for a few months and save up more? If I'm a working guy who's going to be fishing after work, why keep paying money for something I might play once or twice a month? If I have guild wars, why not just play that once every few weeks for free for my MMO fix instead of paying monthly some other sub? Unsubscribing for half a year from a $15/month game saves you $90; while not a huge amount of money, it's certainly a noticeable chunk.
Doubt all you want, but the subscription numbers consistently dip every summer, not just this one. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of people who leave an MMO in spring or summer time are going to just not bother finding a new one and subscribing when they're hardly even going to play it, they'll wait until winter.
Originally posted by Vhaln People might play less during the summer, but I doubt they'd stop playing entirely and cancel subscriptions.
The super-hardcore types couldn't even imagine letting their subscription lapse, but the 'game as a life' people are not the majority of the subscription numbers. But a lot of other people really don't care enough about a game to be worried about suspending a subscription while they don't really play the game. You might worry that you're going to fall behind the gear curve, and you'll miss those new raids and have to catch up, and your honor system rank will decay, but for someome who already doesn't play a lot they're already not at the top of gear, don't raid or don't raid the latest-and-greatest, and don't have the hours/day to keep up a serious honor system rank anyway.
If I'm a college student going from a free high-speed connection at school to an apartment during my summer job, why pay the premium for high-speed access and $15/month/game when I can just cancel for a few months and save up more? If I'm a working guy who's going to be fishing after work, why keep paying money for something I might play once or twice a month? If I have guild wars, why not just play that once every few weeks for free for my MMO fix instead of paying monthly some other sub? Unsubscribing for half a year from a $15/month game saves you $90; while not a huge amount of money, it's certainly a noticeable chunk.
Doubt all you want, but the subscription numbers consistently dip every summer, not just this one. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of people who leave an MMO in spring or summer time are going to just not bother finding a new one and subscribing when they're hardly even going to play it, they'll wait until winter.
could't have said it better. plus, wow attracted a LOT of "casuals" who are just waiting for the expansion atm (they don't like the raidgrind, pvp is out of question with the system) and start their 5th char.. so, lvl another char to 60 or quit for the summer and enjoy the weather ?
The chart doesn't show what games are best because the masses play easy games. The best games are much more complex. The steeper the learning and skill curve, the less the mass appeal.
Originally posted by Jenny2 The chart doesn't show what games are best because the masses play easy games. The best games are much more complex. The steeper the learning and skill curve, the less the mass appeal.
Best by what measurement? To a stockholder, the most profitable game is best, and that's not necessarily the one with the most players either.
Now personally, I agree with you - I find those games that are more complex to be best. For me. But don't confuse personal opinion with quantitative comparison.
Originally posted by SirBruce I don't think all that many people are quitting WoW yet. The average customer life is over 14 months now. And a lot of people who have quit are expected to come back to WoW when the expansion finally comes out. Bruce
hi SirBruce. is this 14 months you are taling about the average life of a WoW customer or an all-game average customer life?
and if it is a WoW customer average life, can you explain where do you get that data from? i mean, does Blizzard public that kind of information or it can be calculated from sales and suscriptions?
is there any web page that lists average customer life for the most popular MMORPGs?
I think drop is because of the lack of new interesting mmorpg releases, lately all new mmorpgs are copies of other old mmorpgs, and others like Auto Assault are realeased pretty buggy and with a huge lack of content and get reviews
I think the community right now is asking for more and we are not giving our money that easy because we want something fresh, we want to have real impact on a virtual world
Im in the "Wow is stupid and i cant find a good fresh new mmorpg so im not playing any mmorpg at the momment" category
Ppl got no impact on wow, there isnt a real community, there is no politics, no housing, is just a normal mmorpg with cute graphics, big maps, lots of mobs, and lots of go kill 40 spiders quests, crafting is as simple as it gets, it is simple... they just knew how to appeal to a new public that wasnt the normal experienced mmorpg players
Thats all... of course i love some small things from WoW that i think any game should have, like the mail system, the auctions house, the fact that WoW runs like a charm on almost any decent machine, it feels smooth when u play it, fast paced combat
It is a pretty pretty sad thing that some devs have made a second game on the same series and they still have less subscriptions on their new game, like EQ and AC, well the AC case is even worst
I think it is hard to really look at the charts and figure out anything concrete. I assume that many MMO players are like me. I drift from one MMO to the next rarely actually playing one to EndGame.
I have played almost all the big names and most of the little ones: WoW, EQ2, DAoC, AA, GW, RFO , yadda yadda yadda. And rarely can I stand taking a toon past the half way mark. The main reason is that I get too caught up in trying each class and race and soon get burnt out after doing the same low level zones over and over again.
My MMO hopes lie within upcoming titles like Huxley, Stargate Worlds and Star Trek Online. I am really not a Fantasy person but pretty much to play a popular MMO you have to play a Fantasy MMO. Sure there are games like Eve (which I just couldn't get into), RF Online (read Korean 'all toons look alike' grindfest) and Auto Assualt (a cool game but too much like a arcade game), but none really have fit my SciFi taste. I think Huxley will change this by hopefully sucessfully combining my two favorite gaming genres MMO and FPS. And Stargate Worlds and Star Trek Online if done correctly could prove to be huge hits in my book.
I think another big issue is because of games like DnL and Seed coming out and still being Beta (or even Alpha) quality. MMO players are getting sick and tired of paying monthly fees while they are in effect paying to beta test a product.
I am rambling but to repeat again I personally think the biggest issue with MMOs right now is that there really is only three flavors 1. The EQ Clones like WoW, DAoC, EQ2 etc. 2. The Korean Grindfest like RF Online, Lineage 2. and 3. The Pay2Beta games like Seed, DnL.
-------------------------------- Currently Playing: Guild Wars 2 and Path of Exile
Originally posted by SirBruce I don't think all that many people are quitting WoW yet. The average customer life is over 14 months now. And a lot of people who have quit are expected to come back to WoW when the expansion finally comes out. Bruce
Based WoW forum reading (ie. extremely subjective) I would agree with Bruce here. But I would add the caveat that a very large number of people are probably reaching their limit.
The "raid or quit" threads never stop on the boards and the pvp threads while less prevalent are just as consistent. There are tons of disatisfied/disgruntled people and a lot more people are now cynical of Blizzard whereas they used to have a measure of faith/trust for them, but they just won't quit. When I quit WoW I posted on the boards for a month or so about what my problems were and then left. That was 6 months ago. Some of the people who agreed with me at the time are still showing up from time to time in the "Raid or Quit" threads. They have clearly kinda given up trying to say much about it, but they are still around. Some of these people are just hanging on for any excuse to forgive/beleive Blizzard again. Blizzard tells them the expansion will solve everything. So most likely they will buy it.
The CM's just seem to say "Who are you going to believe; Me or your lying eyes?" and even the newer disgruntled people jump at the chance to "I believe you not my silly eyes". And the old digruntled people sigh and just say "Fine fiine, I'll buy the expansion, but this is the last time! Well until you tell me the next expansion will solve all these sme problems and then I will buy that one too."
Yes an extremely large amount of people are pissed at Blizzard, but most don't leave. Some, like me, leave as soon as they see the writing on the wall, but most don't. There are certainly a large number of people leaving because of the hot buttons issues, but percentage wise its not enough yet to seriously hurt WoW. I believe its significant enough in North America for Blizz to have taken notice, but that is about it.
I think Blizzards North American subs are slowing down, it defintely seems that way from Bruce's graph (although I don't put too much stock in press release info). But I don't expect to see major losses in western markets for WoW until there is a MMO of similar quality and theme. No matter how unhappy people won't just stop they will need something else to occupy them and they will need to have something exciting to make them leave the investment of an MMO character behind. People are who are first time Online gamers (MMO or MUD) are especially attached to characters they have invested a large amount of time in. Most WoW players haven't reached a point where they can easily give up their guys.
I will say that I think the CM's current strategy of saying "Wait for the expansion, we will fix everything we messed up in the patches" is not a good idea and will hurt them more than they help. Saying that outloud makes people think. And the idea that customers will need to buy the fix is extremely shifty to many. It also leads to the thought they are just humoring you for money since that strategy is plainly geared towards maximizing profit over customer service. If they say that line for 6 months and it seems to a lot of people that they aren't delivering then BC may take a much larger hit than they project. A large portion of WoW success is built upon the faith/confidence so many people have in them to make decent decisions. They have eroded so much of that in the last year, it could turn on a dime. At some point there will be some sort of straw that breaks the camel's back if Blizz doesn't do something. Telling people "Tough luck Raid, Quit or <wait six months and pay $50 for some unspecified magic fix and in the meantime get slaughtered by Naxx DPS weapons that do twice the damage your weapons do>, noob" is not great. Its especially galling to some since they believe Blizzard is raking in tons of money.
The whole endgame issue of raiding is what keeps me from ever wanting to reach endgame in EQ2 and WoW. I could care less for raiding mostly because I have a family and don't have time to invest in 5-6 hour raidfest. I think though this is the biggest issue with MMOs, regardless of how open ended developers claim to make them, endgame is just that, the end. So when you reach that point there isn't anything truly new to do but endless raiding of the same instances over and over or griding for faction.
-------------------------------- Currently Playing: Guild Wars 2 and Path of Exile
Another thing that bothers me with endgame is that many MMORPGs have made leveling so easy that many people who really don't understand the game or listen well to others get into the high levels relatively fast. Then when you go raiding they screw things up even though raiding is just following strategies pre-created and then the raid time goes up even more.
Click Here - Click on Market Share by Genre on the left column
93.5% MMOs are fantasy
I dont know about you guys, but i am SICK to my stomach of elves, dwarfs and all that other fantasy shit they keep coming out with. I am not alone in this thinking.
4.1% in Sci-Fi MMOs? I mean cmon wtf is that! There are tons of Sci-Fi fans out there, from the star wars fans, to the star trek fans, to stargate fans, to alien fans, to all the shows in sci-fi, and from all that we have a measly 4.1% of MMOs that are sci-fi? (Yes i know stargate and star-trek coming out)
Even with some new Sci-Fi games mentioned for release thats a far cry from fantasy monopoly. What about the space sci-fi? EVE online..........thats it. Its truly sad.
Originally posted by gestalt11 If they say that line for 6 months and it seems to a lot of people that they aren't delivering then BC may take a much larger hit than they project. A large portion of WoW success is built upon the faith/confidence so many people have in them to make decent decisions. They have eroded so much of that in the last year, it could turn on a dime. At some point there will be some sort of straw that breaks the camel's back if Blizz doesn't do something.
I think Blizz has already burned a lot of their reputation with people, the people I've talked to who left WOW don't have a high opinion of Blizzard. Not 'I'll never buy from them again', but they don't think 'Blizzard game? Ahh, that's gotta be good' like they did before experiencing WOW's endgame in action. I think BC is very likely to crash the last bit of their reputation; they've been hyping it as the solution for all nonraider woes, but from the actual information they've released it's a very temporary solution. I mean, there's a handful of nonraid dungeons (fewer than the raid dungeons) and they seem to be setup to where the whole dungeon has wings, with starter nonraid wings and a finishing raid wing. Plus they haven't actually said they're changing itemization around, and the lead designer is on record saying that he'll never make nonraid items competitive with raid items.
Originally posted by GMan33 Look at this pie chart: Click Here - Click on Market Share by Genre on the left column 93.5% MMOs are fantasy I dont know about you guys, but i am SICK to my stomach of elves, dwarfs and all that other fantasy shit they keep coming out with. I am not alone in this thinking. 4.1% in Sci-Fi MMOs? I mean cmon wtf is that! There are tons of Sci-Fi fans out there, from the star wars fans, to the star trek fans, to stargate fans, to alien fans, to all the shows in sci-fi, and from all that we have a measly 4.1% of MMOs that are sci-fi? (Yes i know stargate and star-trek coming out) Even with some new Sci-Fi games mentioned for release thats a far cry from fantasy monopoly. What about the space sci-fi? EVE online..........thats it. Its truly sad. Devs wake up, we dont fantasy games ALL the time!
What the MMO genre needs is a new game that is just like Ultima Online, that game rocked and is still okay but I would like to see a more "updated" version and wish there was a game like it.
Mustache is a cat That has to go to the vet Do your taxes now
Originally posted by neuronomad I think it is hard to really look at the charts and figure out anything concrete. I assume that many MMO players are like me. I drift from one MMO to the next rarely actually playing one to EndGame.
I have played almost all the big names and most of the little ones: WoW, EQ2, DAoC, AA, GW, RFO , yadda yadda yadda. And rarely can I stand taking a toon past the half way mark. The main reason is that I get too caught up in trying each class and race and soon get burnt out after doing the same low level zones over and over again.
My MMO hopes lie within upcoming titles like Huxley, Stargate Worlds and Star Trek Online. I am really not a Fantasy person but pretty much to play a popular MMO you have to play a Fantasy MMO. Sure there are games like Eve (which I just couldn't get into), RF Online (read Korean 'all toons look alike' grindfest) and Auto Assualt (a cool game but too much like a arcade game), but none really have fit my SciFi taste. I think Huxley will change this by hopefully sucessfully combining my two favorite gaming genres MMO and FPS. And Stargate Worlds and Star Trek Online if done correctly could prove to be huge hits in my book.
I think another big issue is because of games like DnL and Seed coming out and still being Beta (or even Alpha) quality. MMO players are getting sick and tired of paying monthly fees while they are in effect paying to beta test a product.
I am rambling but to repeat again I personally think the biggest issue with MMOs right now is that there really is only three flavors 1. The EQ Clones like WoW, DAoC, EQ2 etc. 2. The Korean Grindfest like RF Online, Lineage 2. and 3. The Pay2Beta games like Seed, DnL.
Hahaha. I do the same thing. I want to play every class in the game. And if I would just stick with one I would probably get to see a whole bunch more. I also want to try out every game that is released. So that doesn't help either.
My friends all laugh at me. But I can't help it. They're right. I should pick one game and one class and stick with it. But I'm all over the place.
Comments
I agree with ianubisi completely. I mean, if he is using his own data to generate all these reports, the World of Warcraft population has lost some of its upward velocity but it isn't falling... This thread seems to assume that the individual population charts contradict the total population charts... I mean, yeah if for some reason he decided to work from two totally separate sets of data to generate the graphs then it might be possible.
I also agree with Pantastic. If you want to look for trends, look down that graph with the total populations. There are several peaks and valleys. The only difference is that this peak and its corresponding valley are a bit more extreme (and at a higher overall altitude). Now, if the decline continues it might be worth looking at but its like you're trying to claim it's a sustained trend.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
I agree with the analisys on the previous page quoting the splitting of the general genre as reason for a decline for some games and failure to attract expected revenues for some of the new titles.
Wow indeed is on the very casual side of the genre. Quick, satisfying, reasonably simple with a high 'bling' ratio.
Niche MMO's like SoR, Eve and others trend towards the sandbox ideal of many old style MMO players.
In the past, this dvidide was less pronounced. You had game that hung towards the sandbox side (UO for example) and games that hung towards the 'scripted' side (most of the rest of the mainstream euro-american releases). But the difference wasn't that large so as to speak of two different markets.
WoW has moved the bar on the arcade-style 'scirpted' type MMO. It is of very high quality, yet more extreme in being casual-friendly, easy and licked.
On the other hand we see more niche games catering to the sandbox gamestyle in whole new ways (Eve, SL, SoR, ATITD and others that combine new groundbreaking ideas into niceh games that actually do pretty well considering their level of production and investment).
What suffers is the middle ground. And that's exactly the games that lose the subscribers. The games that are either older and less pronounced, or are newer but lack distinctiveness when it comes to choosing one of the genres in which the old MMO genre seems to be splitting up. They can't compete with WoW when it comes to the strengths of that game, nor with the niche games when it comes to catering to those that like freedom and mallability.
Maybe in time things will return to the previous state, but I'd expect things to actually move further down this course, resulting in three subgenres for an MMO: arcade/casual, RPG/immersive and Sandbox/social.
Its no wonder that the games that try and cover two or all of these subgenres struggle to attract players that have the choice to go for a title specialising in one subgenre instead. They'll suffer relative to the days when there were no subgenres.
Rod_B
I'd expect things to actually move further down this course, resulting in three subgenres for an MMO: arcade/casual, RPG/immersive and Sandbox/social.
I really like that breakdown, thanks. I hope you don't mind if I barrow it a few times
Newer games like EQ2 that tried to copy the older model are underperforming expectations because they lack the targeted nature to compete - they are not as sandboxy as Eve or ATITD, nor as casual and "gamey" as WOW. I suspect future releases of this sort will follow the same trend. I also suspect many devs have already seen this "writing on the wall" - look at SOE's (failed, so far) attempt to revive SWG by rewriting it as a gamey-game; or Tabula Rasa's massive revision of their game (which, since it's happening while still in dev, might work better). Mythic's dropping Imperium for Warhammer might have as much to do with Imperium being designed on the EQ/DAOC model, and thus in danger, as it did with the power of the WH license; WH will be able to target people who loved WOW but want something new VERY well.
I would not look at individual MMO launch failures too closely. DnL and AA are both in danger, but the MMO history is full of rough launches, poor launches. The MMO industry is certainly getting more competitive, and the playerbase more demanding; but I would not worry when a few games flop. There will always be flops.
Look at other entertainment industries for where we're going from here. In movies: if you cannot compete with Superman, DON'T release the 4th of July weekend. If you cannot compete with WOW, DON'T release a game that's trying to.
The magazine industry is perhaps a better example, since it is also subscription based. You get some VERY big, mass media publications - compare WOW to Time magazine, and you see where I am going with this. Then you end up with smaller and smaller niche market publications, targeting smaller and smaller slices of the overall market. If you want to compete with Time and their ilk, you need BIG money, outstanding business practices, a polished appearance, and a magazine that will sell to the mass market.
Most MMOs coming out don't fit that bill.
Interesting correlary to this, though, is that it means smaller, more targeted niche games should start doing increasingly well. Like the magazine market, being able to pick up a smaller slice of market share by targeting a few customers VERY directly will enable smaller companies to compete, and bigger companies to succeed by having a stable of many targeted niche games.
Owyn
Commander, Defenders of Order
http://www.defendersoforder.com
Since then I've tried EVE-Online, and its a great game, but I want to see an actual space simulator MMO. I want to have joysticks and fast ships, I want a game where you have to have fast reactions and more skills then just button mashing. WoW tried to make battle more interesting by having more complex and in depth-AI. But in the end it was just a more complex button pattern that you had to press. Once you kill something its no longer a challenge and it gets boring.
Now I've quit EVE and I really don't know where to go anymore. I've looked at tons of games and many look interesting but none look like they're good enough for me to get back into one. Personally, I'd like to see some MMO's that really make use of joysticks in mech simulators, flight simulators, space simulators, and even ground combat simulators. No more of this *target* *click macro* crap.
The super-hardcore types couldn't even imagine letting their subscription lapse, but the 'game as a life' people are not the majority of the subscription numbers. But a lot of other people really don't care enough about a game to be worried about suspending a subscription while they don't really play the game. You might worry that you're going to fall behind the gear curve, and you'll miss those new raids and have to catch up, and your honor system rank will decay, but for someome who already doesn't play a lot they're already not at the top of gear, don't raid or don't raid the latest-and-greatest, and don't have the hours/day to keep up a serious honor system rank anyway.
If I'm a college student going from a free high-speed connection at school to an apartment during my summer job, why pay the premium for high-speed access and $15/month/game when I can just cancel for a few months and save up more? If I'm a working guy who's going to be fishing after work, why keep paying money for something I might play once or twice a month? If I have guild wars, why not just play that once every few weeks for free for my MMO fix instead of paying monthly some other sub? Unsubscribing for half a year from a $15/month game saves you $90; while not a huge amount of money, it's certainly a noticeable chunk.
Doubt all you want, but the subscription numbers consistently dip every summer, not just this one. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of people who leave an MMO in spring or summer time are going to just not bother finding a new one and subscribing when they're hardly even going to play it, they'll wait until winter.
Well i wish someone would hire me...
I have been around since UO in MMO world, hack i even started playing games when ping pong came out...
I know what is needed in a new MMO
As a marketing man i also know a little, have a view on how teh markets are going and where niches will pop up..
The problem is that developers listen only to themsleves or commercial pressured things...
Vanguard is a bit different and will have a nice player base, but realy new xxx
Aion hasnot either cause they miss out on socialize rpg etc...
Huxley and SUn look cool and their looks will have players follow them
etc...
No there is none at this point in developement and on teh interent that can turn around the view of points 1,2 and 3 og the first poster.
Time, patience .. think it will take 2 years at least...
any game company feel free to PM me ..
Have no fear, Xru is here.
Wow, since you know they are way off, you must know the real numbers. So, do tell us, what's the REAL data? What's that? You don't know what you're talking about? That's what I thought.
Bruce
Don't worry, Bruce. You get used to them after a while. Everyone is a genius on the web.
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</OBAMA>
The super-hardcore types couldn't even imagine letting their subscription lapse, but the 'game as a life' people are not the majority of the subscription numbers. But a lot of other people really don't care enough about a game to be worried about suspending a subscription while they don't really play the game. You might worry that you're going to fall behind the gear curve, and you'll miss those new raids and have to catch up, and your honor system rank will decay, but for someome who already doesn't play a lot they're already not at the top of gear, don't raid or don't raid the latest-and-greatest, and don't have the hours/day to keep up a serious honor system rank anyway.
If I'm a college student going from a free high-speed connection at school to an apartment during my summer job, why pay the premium for high-speed access and $15/month/game when I can just cancel for a few months and save up more? If I'm a working guy who's going to be fishing after work, why keep paying money for something I might play once or twice a month? If I have guild wars, why not just play that once every few weeks for free for my MMO fix instead of paying monthly some other sub? Unsubscribing for half a year from a $15/month game saves you $90; while not a huge amount of money, it's certainly a noticeable chunk.
Doubt all you want, but the subscription numbers consistently dip every summer, not just this one. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of people who leave an MMO in spring or summer time are going to just not bother finding a new one and subscribing when they're hardly even going to play it, they'll wait until winter.
Originally posted by Pantastic
Originally posted by Vhaln
People might play less during the summer, but I doubt they'd stop playing entirely and cancel subscriptions.
The super-hardcore types couldn't even imagine letting their subscription lapse, but the 'game as a life' people are not the majority of the subscription numbers. But a lot of other people really don't care enough about a game to be worried about suspending a subscription while they don't really play the game. You might worry that you're going to fall behind the gear curve, and you'll miss those new raids and have to catch up, and your honor system rank will decay, but for someome who already doesn't play a lot they're already not at the top of gear, don't raid or don't raid the latest-and-greatest, and don't have the hours/day to keep up a serious honor system rank anyway.
If I'm a college student going from a free high-speed connection at school to an apartment during my summer job, why pay the premium for high-speed access and $15/month/game when I can just cancel for a few months and save up more? If I'm a working guy who's going to be fishing after work, why keep paying money for something I might play once or twice a month? If I have guild wars, why not just play that once every few weeks for free for my MMO fix instead of paying monthly some other sub? Unsubscribing for half a year from a $15/month game saves you $90; while not a huge amount of money, it's certainly a noticeable chunk.
Doubt all you want, but the subscription numbers consistently dip every summer, not just this one. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of people who leave an MMO in spring or summer time are going to just not bother finding a new one and subscribing when they're hardly even going to play it, they'll wait until winter.
could't have said it better. plus, wow attracted a LOT of "casuals" who are just waiting for the expansion atm (they don't like the raidgrind, pvp is out of question with the system) and start their 5th char.. so, lvl another char to 60 or quit for the summer and enjoy the weather ?
The chart doesn't show what games are best because the masses play easy games. The best games are much more complex. The steeper the learning and skill curve, the less the mass appeal.
Now personally, I agree with you - I find those games that are more complex to be best. For me. But don't confuse personal opinion with quantitative comparison.
Owyn
Commander, Defenders of Order
http://www.defendersoforder.com
hi SirBruce. is this 14 months you are taling about the average life of a WoW customer or an all-game average customer life?
and if it is a WoW customer average life, can you explain where do you get that data from? i mean, does Blizzard public that kind of information or it can be calculated from sales and suscriptions?
is there any web page that lists average customer life for the most popular MMORPGs?
and thanks a lot for your great work.
I think drop is because of the lack of new interesting mmorpg releases, lately all new mmorpgs are copies of other old mmorpgs, and others like Auto Assault are realeased pretty buggy and with a huge lack of content and get reviews
I think the community right now is asking for more and we are not giving our money that easy because we want something fresh, we want to have real impact on a virtual world
Im in the "Wow is stupid and i cant find a good fresh new mmorpg so im not playing any mmorpg at the momment" category
Ppl got no impact on wow, there isnt a real community, there is no politics, no housing, is just a normal mmorpg with cute graphics, big maps, lots of mobs, and lots of go kill 40 spiders quests, crafting is as simple as it gets, it is simple... they just knew how to appeal to a new public that wasnt the normal experienced mmorpg players
Thats all... of course i love some small things from WoW that i think any game should have, like the mail system, the auctions house, the fact that WoW runs like a charm on almost any decent machine, it feels smooth when u play it, fast paced combat
It is a pretty pretty sad thing that some devs have made a second game on the same series and they still have less subscriptions on their new game, like EQ and AC, well the AC case is even worst
concrete. I assume that many MMO players are like me. I drift from
one MMO to the next rarely actually playing one to EndGame.
I have played almost all the big names and most of the little ones:
WoW, EQ2, DAoC, AA, GW, RFO , yadda yadda yadda. And rarely can I
stand taking a toon past the half way mark. The main reason is that I
get too caught up in trying each class and race and soon get burnt out
after doing the same low level zones over and over again.
My MMO hopes lie within upcoming titles like Huxley, Stargate Worlds
and Star Trek Online. I am really not a Fantasy person but pretty
much to play a popular MMO you have to play a Fantasy MMO. Sure there
are games like Eve (which I just couldn't get into), RF Online (read
Korean 'all toons look alike' grindfest) and Auto Assualt (a cool game
but too much like a arcade game), but none really have fit my SciFi
taste. I think Huxley will change this by hopefully sucessfully
combining my two favorite gaming genres MMO and FPS. And Stargate
Worlds and Star Trek Online if done correctly could prove to be huge
hits in my book.
I think another big issue is because of games like DnL and Seed coming
out and still being Beta (or even Alpha) quality. MMO players are
getting sick and tired of paying monthly fees while they are in effect
paying to beta test a product.
I am rambling but to repeat again I personally think the biggest issue
with MMOs right now is that there really is only three flavors 1. The
EQ Clones like WoW, DAoC, EQ2 etc. 2. The Korean Grindfest like RF
Online, Lineage 2. and 3. The Pay2Beta games like Seed, DnL.
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Currently Playing: Guild Wars 2 and Path of Exile
Quit: Eden Eternal, Wakfu, DDO, STO, DCUO, Sword 2, Atlantica Online, LOTRO, SWTOR, RIFT, Earthrise, FFXIV, RoM, Allods Online, GA,WAR,CO,V:SoH,POTBS,TR,COH/COV, WOW, DDO,AL, EQ, Eve, L2, AA, Mx0, SWG, SoR, AO, RFO, DAoC, and others.
www.twitter.com/mlwhitt
www.michaelwhitt.com
Based WoW forum reading (ie. extremely subjective) I would agree with Bruce here. But I would add the caveat that a very large number of people are probably reaching their limit.
The "raid or quit" threads never stop on the boards and the pvp threads while less prevalent are just as consistent. There are tons of disatisfied/disgruntled people and a lot more people are now cynical of Blizzard whereas they used to have a measure of faith/trust for them, but they just won't quit. When I quit WoW I posted on the boards for a month or so about what my problems were and then left. That was 6 months ago. Some of the people who agreed with me at the time are still showing up from time to time in the "Raid or Quit" threads. They have clearly kinda given up trying to say much about it, but they are still around. Some of these people are just hanging on for any excuse to forgive/beleive Blizzard again. Blizzard tells them the expansion will solve everything. So most likely they will buy it.
The CM's just seem to say "Who are you going to believe; Me or your lying eyes?" and even the newer disgruntled people jump at the chance to "I believe you not my silly eyes". And the old digruntled people sigh and just say "Fine fiine, I'll buy the expansion, but this is the last time! Well until you tell me the next expansion will solve all these sme problems and then I will buy that one too."
Yes an extremely large amount of people are pissed at Blizzard, but most don't leave. Some, like me, leave as soon as they see the writing on the wall, but most don't. There are certainly a large number of people leaving because of the hot buttons issues, but percentage wise its not enough yet to seriously hurt WoW. I believe its significant enough in North America for Blizz to have taken notice, but that is about it.
I think Blizzards North American subs are slowing down, it defintely seems that way from Bruce's graph (although I don't put too much stock in press release info). But I don't expect to see major losses in western markets for WoW until there is a MMO of similar quality and theme. No matter how unhappy people won't just stop they will need something else to occupy them and they will need to have something exciting to make them leave the investment of an MMO character behind. People are who are first time Online gamers (MMO or MUD) are especially attached to characters they have invested a large amount of time in. Most WoW players haven't reached a point where they can easily give up their guys.
I will say that I think the CM's current strategy of saying "Wait for the expansion, we will fix everything we messed up in the patches" is not a good idea and will hurt them more than they help. Saying that outloud makes people think. And the idea that customers will need to buy the fix is extremely shifty to many. It also leads to the thought they are just humoring you for money since that strategy is plainly geared towards maximizing profit over customer service. If they say that line for 6 months and it seems to a lot of people that they aren't delivering then BC may take a much larger hit than they project. A large portion of WoW success is built upon the faith/confidence so many people have in them to make decent decisions. They have eroded so much of that in the last year, it could turn on a dime. At some point there will be some sort of straw that breaks the camel's back if Blizz doesn't do something. Telling people "Tough luck Raid, Quit or <wait six months and pay $50 for some unspecified magic fix and in the meantime get slaughtered by Naxx DPS weapons that do twice the damage your weapons do>, noob" is not great. Its especially galling to some since they believe Blizzard is raking in tons of money.
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Currently Playing: Guild Wars 2 and Path of Exile
Quit: Eden Eternal, Wakfu, DDO, STO, DCUO, Sword 2, Atlantica Online, LOTRO, SWTOR, RIFT, Earthrise, FFXIV, RoM, Allods Online, GA,WAR,CO,V:SoH,POTBS,TR,COH/COV, WOW, DDO,AL, EQ, Eve, L2, AA, Mx0, SWG, SoR, AO, RFO, DAoC, and others.
www.twitter.com/mlwhitt
www.michaelwhitt.com
Look at this pie chart:
Click Here - Click on Market Share by Genre on the left column
93.5% MMOs are fantasy
I dont know about you guys, but i am SICK to my stomach of elves, dwarfs and all that other fantasy shit they keep coming out with. I am not alone in this thinking.
4.1% in Sci-Fi MMOs? I mean cmon wtf is that! There are tons of Sci-Fi fans out there, from the star wars fans, to the star trek fans, to stargate fans, to alien fans, to all the shows in sci-fi, and from all that we have a measly 4.1% of MMOs that are sci-fi? (Yes i know stargate and star-trek coming out)
Even with some new Sci-Fi games mentioned for release thats a far cry from fantasy monopoly. What about the space sci-fi? EVE online..........thats it. Its truly sad.
Devs wake up, we dont fantasy games ALL the time!
I think Blizz has already burned a lot of their reputation with people, the people I've talked to who left WOW don't have a high opinion of Blizzard. Not 'I'll never buy from them again', but they don't think 'Blizzard game? Ahh, that's gotta be good' like they did before experiencing WOW's endgame in action. I think BC is very likely to crash the last bit of their reputation; they've been hyping it as the solution for all nonraider woes, but from the actual information they've released it's a very temporary solution. I mean, there's a handful of nonraid dungeons (fewer than the raid dungeons) and they seem to be setup to where the whole dungeon has wings, with starter nonraid wings and a finishing raid wing. Plus they haven't actually said they're changing itemization around, and the lead designer is on record saying that he'll never make nonraid items competitive with raid items.
you seem to be forgetting historical MMORPGs
Mustache is a cat
That has to go to the vet
Do your taxes now
My friends all laugh at me. But I can't help it.
They're right. I should pick one game and one class and stick with it. But I'm all over the place.