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Loss Estimate on SOE and SWG during the last 7 months
Pjay2k
Member CommonPosts: 260
let's say we had 200.000 subscribers more before the NGE:
loss during the last 7 months = 200.000 * 15 * 7
= 21000000 (a damage of at least 21 Million Dollars)
not counted damage:
- the reputation damage
- the loss of trust
- the friends who told their friends to stay away of SOE products
the 21 mills are nothing against the "not counted" damage
and believe it or not, John Smedley will sooner or later get fired for that...
you'll see
SOE and NGE-Star Wars Galalaxies:
Raph Koster: "It's like dumping the girlfriend who has always been patient and loving to chase after the supermodel who probably won't love you back."
Comments
See you in the dream..
The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
None of these people are getting fired. These people are set in stone with this game.
The only possibility is that there is another SW Online game in the pipes, and everyones keeping their mouths shut about it.
They are a business afterall, and no matter how much we hate them, the suits aren't stupid. They know this game has such a bad reputation that it's beyond salvageable. When they see a Star Wars game that was making a lot of money before and is now a fraction of what it was, they probably say "wtf" and set a deadline. I'm sure that deadline has passed or is near.
Don't worry. There will be something else. Eventually. Might take a year or two to see it, but be sure they are drawing up their plans to cash in once again. That's what the NGE was about wasn't it? Cashing in by enabling a larger audience that has less of an attention span (WoW audience)? And the funny thing is, it'll happen all over again. The new game will be great and prosperous for it's first year or so, and then some dickhead oppurtunists like McIntyre or Torres will step in and be like "I have a grand plan to turn us all into Bill Gates relatives!".
So, it's a cycle. And we're in the wash phase right now.
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All of this will be completely ignored sine the addition of station pass numbers and a whole other pile of bullshit will be used to paint Smedley as the Holy Messiah who delivered us all from evil.
Apparently we weren't having any fun before smed came along, we were lost in an Uncle Owen nightmare.
Once swg ends up on console, it will all seem like a managerial masterstroke.
SWG didn't lose to WoW, it lost to itself, all the revamps, etc.
The rest will be lost to the emulator unless they throw on some classic servers.
Late 2004:
SWG is losing subscriptions. Expansion doesn't help enough, issues with core game mount. Competition starts to represent a challenge. CU is set into motion.
Late 2004 - Mid 2005:
Under the influence of market killer, WoW, CU is changed into WoW conversion. Second expansion is planned.
Mid 2005:
Kash and CU, combined with movie hype bring in lots of new players. Old issues remain. The response hasn't improved, players want more KOTOR, less WoW. NGE is started. PS3 becomes a viable option for new markets, subscription loss continues, retention is too low.
Late 2005:
SWG is scrapped. Either to be re-released for console, or to fill the blank until new SW online game comes along remains to be seen.
Late 2005 - now:
NGE retains a non-negligible number of subscriptions. Due to complete migration under EQ management, severe reduction in active SWG development staff, and reduced hardware loads due to smaller active population, costs are reduced drastically, allowing some minimal number of subscriptions (<20k) to completely cover the costs of operation.
now - ?:
SWG runs by covering its basic operation costs. No active effort is put into promotion, small gimicks are introduced gradually. The complete NGE design (expertise et al) is stretched through 1 year period, during which time LEC sponsors next SWG online game development.
late 2006:
Last version of SWG is released, SWG Complete. This provides last income spike, that covers all the SWG costs till it's shutdown.
?:
SW replacement is launched. SWG is put into free mode, all expansions are available through station pass as single package. With costs covered through sales and odd subscriptions (now 20-40k), servers can run indefinitely, or until license expires (apparently 5 years total). This also covers SOE to fulfil the contract (must not cancel before this time, or must shutdown after this time).
Conclusion:
With CU, it became obvious that SWG can no longer compete. While probably not too profitable anymore, SWG can no longer cover its costs long-term, at least not with sufficient profit. NGE indicates scrapping of SWG, putting into hibernation mode. This is simply a way to keep income, fulfil the contract, and generate adequate ammount of profit to cover license costs, allow cost-free operation.
I'm currently beginning to think, that the original SWG contract was formed slightly differently. I'd guess the cost of license was fixed, but bound to 5 year period, with penalty for early termination. While there might be some per-user fees, they aren't determining.
During this time, the license would have been already paid off, but the game needs to survive till the contract expires. SOE needs to obviously make profit off SWG during this time, hence all the actions that were taken.
Overall:
SWG is not losing money. Period. They are making profit off a dead game, have their bases covered, and have the plan to run the game till the end of license.
If you look at how things are, the publish plan, which they are now even following, indicates that expertise won't be finished for one more year. Halfway through, last complete edition of SWG will be released. In one year, SOE will stop maintaining SWG, and let it run dry. By that time, they'll have all the costs covered. With obvious reduction in population, their server load will decrease, allowing them to slowly phase out hardware, and reduce network bandwidth.
SWG will then be shutdown when contract expires, somewhere in 2008.
Mesa gonna ruin Star Wars forever!!!!!
You forgot marketing and other non-profit making areas.
But as the poster below said.... with the handful of Devs now and no real advancment -- they are doing minor things as to not bare a cost. (WE ARE NOT MAKING A EXPANSION) -- because we need to fix bugs.. Well have you seen any real improvment on that??? Have you seen strides of bug issues resolved???
No... nothing is different and these guys are not any faster then before in fixing things with only 9 classes. But they did avoid the cost of a expansion. (marketing etc..) -- Even if it is just a digital download it still has some cost factor of marketing.
Right now SWG as we once knew it is done. Only a fool would invest into it, even the deep pockets of SOE.
At this point they should squeeze every single NGEr out of his buck until somthing else gets announced or until it dies itself.
If this is the franchise Bioware got for a MMO -- then man HAVE they got alot to live up to, on the other hand if anyone can do it --- it sure is Hell them. over 100 Awards for KOTOR alone shows they care about a product and also care about the content and customer base. Bioware is not a huge MMO company but they do have some experience, plus all the folk they hired in Austin.
We have to HOPE they DO NOT HIRE anyone from this current team, they DO NOT DO ANYTHING THAT THIS TEAM DID.............EVER... These guys will have thier work cut out for them (IF IT is real).
______________________________
I usually picture the Career builder commercial with the room full of monkeys and upside down sales chart when thinking about the SOE/SWG decision making process.....
SOE's John Blakely and Todd Fiala issued a warning: "Don't make our mistakes." Ref NGE
Winner of the worst MMOS goes to.... the NGE and SWG..!!! http://www.mmorpg.com/showFeature.cfm?loadFeature=1034&bhcp=1
I'm sure that softend the financial blow to them by several million.
Speculation: The ONLY reason that Smed wouldn't be fired for this debacle is if it was forced on him by LA, and he has the documetation to prove it. At that point, SOE's HORRID handling of the NGE could be blamed on LA's dirrection.
Remember, Smed is only the President. There is also a CEO, and a CEO is THE authority in a company. So, there's a head higher than Smed watching things....
I'll start my own SWG... with Black Jack... and Hookers!!!
In fact, forget the SWG!!!!
If they weren't making money with 200-250K subs (which they had pre NGE), it's because they kept too many expensive employees around to rewrite the core.
I'm sure that softend the financial blow to them by several million.
Yep but let me tell you it felt good asking for my money back on that while retaining all the items since I had done almost all the quests there under the CU format -- unknowing about the NGE coming (Yeah sucks to do all the quests on Mustafar then be told you need them for XP in the NGE) -- lol it really added to my hitting the cancel button.
______________________________
I usually picture the Career builder commercial with the room full of monkeys and upside down sales chart when thinking about the SOE/SWG decision making process.....
SOE's John Blakely and Todd Fiala issued a warning: "Don't make our mistakes." Ref NGE
Winner of the worst MMOS goes to.... the NGE and SWG..!!! http://www.mmorpg.com/showFeature.cfm?loadFeature=1034&bhcp=1
I just wish he'd do the honorable thing... being a Japanese company and all.
What's that line from Serenity? "There is no shame in this?"
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
why would you say thats obvious?
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
Here's the problem with the whole "SWG is losing money" theory. You guys always refer to lost subs as "lost money." Since we don't know how much it costs to run SWG, the reality is that lost subs are lost potential profit. There is a big difference between losing money and losing profit.
Lets put it in simple terms:
You make 100,000 per year and 20,000 in overtime (120k). Your annual expenses are 48,000 (4k per month). If you stop taking the overtime, you have not lost 20k, you have a net profit loss of 20k. In order to have a net loss, you would have to have your pay cut to below 48k per year (your expenses).
SWG as a business group (if SOE even considers it a seperate business) is very likely able to maintain marginal profitability even with extremely low subs. Now, I fully realize that sometimes creative corporate accounting can make a loser a winner. However, SOE has been around for some time and currently they have several mmorpgs that, post-Wow, are considered losers by the industry, but SOE would not continue if they were all unprofitable. As far as I can tell, SOE has become the industry expert on how to run a mmorpg as lean as possible to maintain profitability.
This is based on the idea that all those subs would still be active now. As you know, that was not what we were seeing pre-CU, what we saw was a bleeding out of the subs. The game was bleeding to death before the CU was ever heard of. The problems were/are to numerous to say here but the game was slowly losing players!
SOE decided to make changes - a combat rebalance was announced. A combat upgrade is what we got. The bleeding got infected and gangrene set in. More players left. The skilled surgeons at the games inception were all gone and only quacks were left. Thier solution to the gangrene was amputation (NGE). More players left.
I agree that they have lost money and I can say they're out $1,050 from myself and my friends.
I hate SOE and LA with the passion of a Sith Lord! but even I will admit that your math is based on incorrect numbers. Not counted damage as your post shows would be hard to account for in the lost of revenue. Aside from that - who would pay for the research? The only people that care about SWG is SOE itself and I don't see $medley paying to find out what numbers he has lost to rep/trust/word of mouth. So $medley will sadly keep his job.
"The liberties and resulting economic prosperity that YOU take for granted were granted by those "dead guys"
Seppuku
QFE!
And since we are here http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056058/ <---- one of the best movies ever made. You all need to see it.
"The liberties and resulting economic prosperity that YOU take for granted were granted by those "dead guys"
SOE is doing what all corporations do when their name goes bad...work from behind the scenes. Why else do you think they're going the publisher route lately ? Theyre behind Gods and Heroes and Vanguard. Dont be suprised to see them publish Star Trek also.
Choice is only an illusion these days. Its nearly impossible to boycott a company when everyone owns each other.
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Boba Fett
...Seriously...
You said it all.
1) Pre-NGE SWG had about 225k to 250k players.
2) Currently SWG has about 110 to 125k players
So a 100k player loss, not 200k.
As to income, they've lost income but they haven't "lost money". SWG will still be profitable even if it only has 75k subscribers. Actully since its an MMORPG that has already covered it's development costs it will still be profitable with as few as 30k to 40k subscribers, though it would be 'treading water' at that point, much like AC was for the past several years. That number would also force SOE to do server merges in order to cut costs for the game.
But I agree with most of what you said, asside from the innacurate numbers to make it look worse than it is (not that a 100k subscriber loss isn't bad enough all by itself LOL)
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