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Over saturated market?
thej6m
Member Posts: 38
Anyone else wonder why so many developers are entering the MMO field? It has been two years since WOW was released and we've seen top tier, publisher backed titles like Matrix Online and Auto Assault fail miserably. (they recently merged Auto Assault's servers togeather and are giving it away free with Guild Wars, not a good sign.) Why can't developers see that the MMO field isn't like the FPS or RTS genres. I LOVE mmos but two factors are going to be giant hurdles for new developers and none of them seem to be realizing this. No.1 is the monthly fee. Any hardcore RTS fan will buy every and all RTS games published. The same can't be said for MMO players. I wish I could play 4 or 5 mmos but with 1 COH/COV account and 2 WOW accounts I can't afford it. No.2 server population. I think we can all agree WOW isn't the greatest MMO of all time but why do most of us still play it? Because there are so many others who play it. No MMO comes anywhere close to WOW's subscription numbers, and I'm not sure any game will be able too. MOST WOW players are casual gamers who heard about WOW from a friend or a retail add etc. Do you really think that the legions of casual WOW players are going to migrate to an upcomming MMO? I see good games in development, but they all seem the same. "Me too" games might work for GTA clones but at 15 bucks a month I don't see the casual MMOer picking up yet another fantasy based MMORPG when they have a level 60 Night Elf rogue. How does everyone else see the market developing over the next few years?
Neuman
Comments
I used to think that this would be true of mmorpgs, mostly because of the monthly fees associated with most of them. We simply can't realistically expect mmorpgs players to buy them as they would buy other types of games.
There is a much larger investment that comes with a mmorpg, not only money for the subscription, but in time as well. So I figured after a while, more and more mmos would come out and fail due to a limited population of mmo gamers and lots of mmos.
This hasn't happened yet though. It seems mmorpgs are very popular still. Maybe subscriptions will die down over time, but many of the mmorpgs that are coming out are doing well with some exceptions, and older ones are still surviving, sometimes even making comebacks, earning more money through increased subscriptions.
This is why I am very happy to see innovation in subscription plans, like SOEs Station Pass. I can now feel pretty good about paying the slightly more expensive subscription and have 3 of their games on my hard drive. I may only play one for the most part, but I will occasionally log into another one that I enjoy, without having to worry about activating accounts and then cancelling.
SOE happens to be my favorite and so I am lucky that I can enjoy their games under this plan. Now if only NCSoft would follow this example so I can once again play their games. Right now, I have cancelled them all, besides Guild Wars, for obvious reasons, and I wish I could log in to play City of Villains and Auto Assault again. I won't re-activate my account to these games, though, because I know that I won't be spending a lot of time with them now. I play Everquest II and Everquest mostly. The investment in a monthly subscription to an NCSoft game would not make sense for me.
So with the increasing amount of mmorpgs coming, I still think that there is room for them all, but I also think something has to be done in the way subscriptions are handled, so that interested players like me can experience many of them, without having to pay subscriptions to the ones that we may not be playing much.
This is only the beginning. The future of entertainment as a whole is going to be interactive, online, subscriber-based, and massively multiplayer.
Right now, the market is very, very, very small. Expect to see it multiply tenfold in the next 5-10 years.
Okay first off I would like to request that you next time seperate that into 2 or 3 paragraphs. It helps with readability. Just a friendly request.
Second off, good topic. Monthy fee is the problem with MMO's as you've said. No one wants to play several MMO's at the same time because of the monthy fees, like they would with other games. I would have to say that the majority of MMO players are not casual players. I would think that most fit into the 20-30 hr a week gameplayer model. These addicts will most likely be fed up with their current game and are already looking/waiting on the next big thing. WoW itself has some very dedicated players that love the Warcraft series and thinks that WoW is awsome. My brothers Dad and himself are one of them. I couldn't convince them to leave that game if I have a $100 bill attached to the new game. They just love the Warcraft lore that much.
Someone else made a really good post the other day about how the first MMO's pioneered the rest. UO pioneering skill based sandbox MMO's. DAoC pioneering RvR type PvP. EQ pioneering 3D MMO experience and class/level based progression and raiding. There are others, but I think you get my point. Well WoW took a lot of these games and copied them and polished them and made their own in their own world. The result is a well polished, easy game that is easy to get into and fun to advance in. The Raids are even fun for awhile, but the game fails to keep the dedicated MMO players that played MMO's before WoW and the players that are not hardcore Warcraft fans.
So what WoW did was increase the MMO market and other companies are trying to get a piece of that pie by copying WoW's game model. As you can see with SWG and EQ2, it's not only the game model that got them the 6 million subscribers.
So to answer the question, I believe that no other U.S. company will have this success for a long time, but that there will be a lot of players that are not Warcraft fans to migrate to newer games as all MMO addicts do. Fantasy games is a worn out genre and people will get bored quickly, moving on to the next fantasy game thinking it would be different, not knowing that what they are sick of is the fantasy setting itself. So, while we cannot afford to pay much more than one MMO subscription or we would rather not, there will be successful MMO's and the market has just opened up. The games that will steal the subscribers will be those that offer something new. Sci-Fi games will be next to crack the pot.
You are using MxO as an example of a "top tier" MMORPG title? Are you insane? MxO was bad in beta, it was bad at release and even after SOE bought it out, while they have managed to improve it some, still haven't managed to fix it to where it's anywhere near what I would call a "top tier" MMORPG....
Same goes for Auto Assault... it's not an MMORPG it's a Online driving game with RPG elements to it. It'll be a niche game, at best.
Guild Wars just came out last year. Has Sold over 2 million copies.
DDO just came out this year and, despite everyone saying it's a crappy MMO, has managed to get 90k subscribers.
Vanguard has over 100,000 subscribers signed up for BETA let alone release.
Hero's Journey (not to be confused with Hero Online) also has a very large (and growing) following.
Darkfall - huge following. I know entire guilds waiting for this one. Whether it actually gets released is anyones guess.
WAR - HUGE following... could be the next WoW (though I doubt it)
No, the industry isn't saturated by any stretch of the immagination. This is proven by the simple fact that games as old as EQ1, DAOC and UO still have over 100k players paying to play them. Ancient games, by MMO timelines, that are well past their prime have almost 1 million subscribers between them. That's not even counting the millions of asian subscribers still playing L1 and other old titles in the orient... That's a LOT of accounts that some lucky next gen MMO could snap up. The only reason nobody really has? Other than EQ2 and WoW and GuildWars there hasn't been a Decent MMORPG released in almost 3 years. (Sorry SoR folks.... SoR was mediocre, at best, at release... and that's haunting it to this day.) EVE and SWG were the last "good" MMO's to be released prior to 3 years ago... and well... we know what's happened with SWG
The problem is that MMORPG makers have lost touch with what players actually find "fun" in an MMORPG. With the exception of the 3 I noted.
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
Thanks for the tip next time I'll be sure and post in paragraph form:)
While the MMO genre is certainly increasing, I highly doubt that MMOs at least in their current form will dominate interactive entertainment. The GTA and Madden gamers out there want NOTHING to do with EQ or WOW I'm sure.
If I were going to develop a (commercially successful) MMO I'd make sure that it no.1 had a large publisher with a large marketing budget behind it, and no.2 that it didn't try to DIRECTLY compete with WOW. (because as amazing is Vangaurd: Saga of Heroes and Warhammer Online look, I don't think they will conjure the sales and thus the population numbers of WOW)
Neuman
GW doesn't count as a true MMO if EVERYONE could just agree to this forum trolling would be reduced by 50% at least. That doesn't mean it isn't a good game, just not an MMO in the standard sense.
Still though, 100,000 subscribers used to be a milestone for any MMO, compared to WOW's 5.2 million subscribers 100k is a joke. COH/COV (which I regularly play) has over 300,000 subscribers and the servers when compared to WOW's look like ghost towns.
Neuman
If people would stop demanding to make this point we'd see the same reduction.
I was driving into work today listening to some Radio show I don't really like and it occurred to me these guys were just Howard Stern clones trying to be all cool and edgy and gettnig their fanbase riled up to spread their name and their hype yet all they do is talk about nothing (at least Howard Stern is smart). The reason I bring this up is WoW fans are often like Howard Stern fans, they agressively state that their the thing they owe their allegienace too is the best in the world, its super awesome, and claim that they invented the entire genre (or at least everything good). Blizzard benefits from a very Howard Stern like hype machine. Ever since Diablo became the "In" popular online thing back in the 90's. Don't think I am denegrating either one by saying this, Howard Stern is a very smart and very cagey business man, don't underestimate him.
In the end MMO's success are more like shock jock radio shows than they are about why normal games succeed. Sure you can't have a crap game, but these are endeavors that try to pull multiple people into a social atmosphere where peopel are encopuraged to advocate for their interests. These operations are much closer to political administrations or radio shows or university (things interact with a large social communitty) than they are to other games.
Basically, no, the MMO market is not saturated. There are millions of social club things that invilve enough people to make a profitable MMO. Even the niche small games probably don't need tons of people to keep up. However the large successes must capture an audience in such a way that there is an aggressive snowball effect. How many people bought WoW because they were recruited by friends or because they everyone was playing it? A whole lot. And at first its a fairly fun/interesting game so people stay.
You can't really divy up a market like the MMO market because of the social aspects of it. If some other game became the "In" and suddenly had 6 million players in a year that wouldn't mean WoW would have none, sure they would probably lose some but alot would be there because frioends recruited them. I never go to restaurants much, but if I was dating someone who did I would go. After I broke up with her I may or may not continue that behavior, depending on personal preference or what else is goign on in my life.
I have said this before; MMO's as a business should be thought of and run as if they were a combination of a bar/dance club/hangout joint and a politcal administration. All bars server the same liquor and stuff, its atmosphere and other not-so definable things they are really selling. Whether or not you succeed often has not so much to do with the saturation of the market or what other competitors are doing so much as the whims and perceptions of the populace. I was under the impression that EQ2 was awful for quite a while. Especially if I listened to WoW people, when I tried it out I though it was better than WoW. If I listened to WoW people about Guild Wars it would be the same. According to them its a horrible game, yet i think its better than WoW too. Its the Howard Stern effect again.
Also Auto Assault isn't something you should use for this topic as the developers, NetDevil have actually been in the MMO business since before WoW was popular. Jumpgate has been around for a while. Its does have a low pop (11k or so) and was expected to do better, but the devs didn't just jump in to the market to cash in.
I never really thought of it like that. That's very insightful. So maybe developers should focus more on developing a stable, social community then on graphics,quests, and instances. As for the NetDevil comment I didn't mean to lump them in with the "me too" MMO developers out there, I'm well aware of NetDevil's extensive MMO background. I was saying that good games from good developers (like Auto Assault and NetDevil) still can't break the hold that WOW has on the genre.
Neuman
I tend to agree with El on this way, I don't really think that the MMO market is saturated by any means.
Certainly, we've seen some failures and bombs (AC2, MxO, Hz, AA) and we've seen some games go towards a direction most fans would think insane but we've also seen some amazing success stories with real promise for the future.
I also feel like we're on the cusp of a big turn in the MMO industry. Like El wrote, lots of developers seem to forgoten the roots of MMO's and gaming in general, as a result, the fun has been taken out. But I really feel this is going to be turning around soon.
With more and more people comming into the MMO genre, it's popularity growing every day, I think we have nothing but great times ahead and some wonderful games to look forward to.
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no its not over saturated. its underly so. it costs 100-x,000 a month to rent a server(dedicated) this means you only need a couple hundred people subscribing. and considering there are soo many ways to get load(s) off a server if you are creative, or somewhat skilled at programing. you can really cut costs.
I find it amazing that by 2020 first world countries will be competing to get immigrants.
Communities are living, breathing things. A developer cannot develop a community, since a developer cannot encode the behavior of its members.
Communities flock to that which interests them, thus the content is what matters. Development companies, or more importantly the "live team" can foster communities by rewarding constructive behavior and engaging in the community dynamic. But in the end the mob is a fickle entity...and it can turn on you at any time.
I absolutely agree that a sense of community is one of the biggest draws to online gaming. It is what makes this entertainment option so compelling.
2) 100k subscribers may be 'small' compared to WOW but it doesn't make a game any less successful. You only need 50k to cut a profit. 100k, despite the fact that WoW has millions, is STILL a VERY profitable game. DDO having 90k subscribers is absolutely stunning to me. They have almost double the subscribers necessary to pay off their investment costs in very short order.
3) Subscribers != active players. UO has 125k SUBSCRIBERS but I'd be very surprised if more than 10-20k people are actually PLAYING the game on a regular basis. Many only keep their accounts active to keep their castles or guild houses or player cities going. Many are on 1 year subscriptions and haven't played in months.... etc.
Bottom line: Stating that a game isn't successful at 50k+ subscriptions is stupid. If it's profitable it's a success. At 50k subs any MMO on the market is a "success". At 100k it's a blockbuster. At 5.2 million WoW is off the charts (and, um, actually... WoW is over 6.5 mil thanks)
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
I never really thought of it like that. That's very insightful. So maybe developers should focus more on developing a stable, social community then on graphics,quests, and instances. As for the NetDevil comment I didn't mean to lump them in with the "me too" MMO developers out there, I'm well aware of NetDevil's extensive MMO background. I was saying that good games from good developers (like Auto Assault and NetDevil) still can't break the hold that WOW has on the genre.
Neuman
I wouldn't say they should focus more. To extend my imperfect analogy, no matter how much hype/community or whatever other social draw your bar has if you serve rotgut $5/liter vodka you are only gonna have a certain clientele and most likely your hype will take a quick nose dive and you go out of business.
But even if you serve Maker's Mark and Grey Goose but no one thinks your bar is cool you might go out of business.
Both go out of busniess, both aspects are important. Most people respect the second one more, but respect don't pay the bills.
** snipped**
Communities flock to that which interests them, thus the content is what matters. Development companies, or more importantly the "live team" can foster communities by rewarding constructive behavior and engaging in the community dynamic. But in the end the mob is a fickle entity...and it can turn on you at any time.
I absolutely agree that a sense of community is one of the biggest draws to online gaming. It is what makes this entertainment option so compelling.
I believe this statement, while partially correct is somewhat misleading. I say misleadnig because it de-emphasizes something imporant. How a company communicates, what it emphasizes, all that is extremely imporant. The message you put out is big, especailly for the initial attraction. How you are perceived is as much about what you say about what you have as it is about what you actually have. And how people perceive you is imporatant
I am actually a very funny and friendly person in real life when you just sit down and talk to me. But when I am walking around in the world I tend to glare and stare at people. Sometimes people smile and I should smile back and be friendly but due to habits I don't. You could say I have good content but bad PR. Or maybe that I'm crazy.
Its more than just community, which is important, its the way in which messages transfer and are perceived throughout a society. If I said "Hey, dumba** if you don't come see how awesome this game is you are a complete loser." probably most people will say "F*** you." It is often the case that when enough people repeat the same thing it will be perceived as true by many people. If you can get enough people to repeat something it is often enough the complete the sell with a bunch of other people. Alot of people don't don't necessarily go searching for thigns or even compare and shop around.
Quality content may sell itself, but that doesn't mean it sells as well as a well marketed item of medocre quality. Sure horrible quality will just flop, but there is a alot of cariation in between. Similarly a great community that is insular will most likely not recruit as much as a large agreesive community.
And because these things are at their hearts social enterrpises they have those characteristics. An MMO is not like a hammer. When I go buy a hammer I just don't care how many people have a hammer of brand X, but for an MMO I do care. I may care enough to even actively recruit people for that MMO. There is never a case where I will actively try to get someone to buy Brand X hammers (unless I'm paid) I may reccomend brand X if someone asks but I certainly won't go around and actively look for people.