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This game will not succeed, but that doesn't mean it will fail either.
DarthRaevyn
Member Posts: 16
Currently according to mmogcharts.com fantasy MMORPG's have 93.5% control over the market. World of Warcraft dominates just a little over half of the current market. Currently we have games like Everquest 1 & 2, Lineage 1 & 2, Star Wars: Galaxies, City of Heroes/Villains, RuneScape, and Final Fantasy XI all competing for what's left. What makes you think anyone will leave any of these games for Vanguard especially when it's run by SOE?
With that the current market is looking for two key aspects in a MMO:
1) PVP
2) Endgame raiding/grouping
Vanguard offers nothing special in either of these areas on top of that it does not have instances nor does it offer anything out of your standard MMORPG fantasy archetype. What's worse is that solo'ing will be tough in the game so that forces casual gamers those who like to play for a half hour to a hour will not be able to level as quickly as fast as those who play much longer. This is why is WoW is such a success because it attracts bot the casual and hardcore gamer.
WoW is probably the best MMORPG out there with endgame raiding/grouping content and with Burning Crusade you're getting a whole new plethora of content.
What WoW does lack in is the endgame PVP. World PVP was essentially killed with BG's, but Blizzard is fixing that with the world PVP patch and the RVR.
If anything Warhammer Online will be the definitive game for PVP. The devs are really hyping it up to be an awesome PVP game where you can just PVP from the get go.
So essentially Vanguard will do absolutely nothing for the MMORPG market. It's your run of the mill fantasy MMO and currently there are much better fantasy MMO's such as EQ 1/2, FFXI, and WoW and future ones such as Age of Conan and Warhammer.
With that the current market is looking for two key aspects in a MMO:
1) PVP
2) Endgame raiding/grouping
Vanguard offers nothing special in either of these areas on top of that it does not have instances nor does it offer anything out of your standard MMORPG fantasy archetype. What's worse is that solo'ing will be tough in the game so that forces casual gamers those who like to play for a half hour to a hour will not be able to level as quickly as fast as those who play much longer. This is why is WoW is such a success because it attracts bot the casual and hardcore gamer.
WoW is probably the best MMORPG out there with endgame raiding/grouping content and with Burning Crusade you're getting a whole new plethora of content.
What WoW does lack in is the endgame PVP. World PVP was essentially killed with BG's, but Blizzard is fixing that with the world PVP patch and the RVR.
If anything Warhammer Online will be the definitive game for PVP. The devs are really hyping it up to be an awesome PVP game where you can just PVP from the get go.
So essentially Vanguard will do absolutely nothing for the MMORPG market. It's your run of the mill fantasy MMO and currently there are much better fantasy MMO's such as EQ 1/2, FFXI, and WoW and future ones such as Age of Conan and Warhammer.
Comments
If you have any questions please ask. I have moved on to WoW from eq and no longer have any desire to play a dead game. Thank you. (posted by another selling his account in EQ1)
No, it probably won't bring a whole lot of new stuff to the MMO genre. I think those days are pretty much over (although I would absolutely love to be proved wrong). With the exception of EVE (who did go through a shaky period), those who have tried to bring a lot of new stuff to the genre have pretty much failed in doing so. It's much wiser to make small incremental steps and make your MMO different on a few key aspects rather than trying to everything at once.
In Vanguard's case, the key aspects seem to be (there's probably something I'm forgetting here) diplomacy, new ways of integrating crafting and a return to the days where things were a bit more challenging. The latter part alone is probably enough to carve out a niche large enough to sustain their servers and further development plus expansions. If that can be achieved and the people playing Vanguard find it more fulfilling than any of the other MMORPGs out there (they're not just playing until something better comes along which seems to be the case for a growing group of WoW players), then how can you not call it a success?
As for being run by SOE. 3 of the games you list are already being run by SOE. If SOE is the problem, then shouldn't these people have left those games to begin with? I certainly left SWG when it imploded thanks to SOE. Also, with Vanguard being on the station access pass, those people who don't think SOE is the great Satan of MMORPGs have even more reason to try Vanguard than say, WoW. So you logic completely fails in that aspect.
Finally, your comment about the current maket looking for PVP and endgame raiding/grouping as the two key aspects. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Go to any WoW board and you'll find people complaining every day that there's nothing to do in WoW at lvl 60 other than raiding, PVP or grinding rep/gold. Obviously they're looking for something else. The problem is that this something else hasn't really been clearly defined yet. To give you an example that not everything revolves around PVP/raiding. In SWG, my endgame was running a successful business and eventually I ended up being a mayor as well. That's about as far as you can get from PVP/raiding and I loved it. Whether Vanguard will deliver in this area or not, only time can tell. The things I've read about diplomacy and crafting indicates that the type of endgame I experienced in SWG just might be possible... plus you can raid and PVP as well.
I'm a big ol' fluffy carewolf. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
As for End-game raiding- I have no idea on this one. I wouldn't mind it, but if it isn't there, I will not be disappointed, either. But I'm not a person who blows through the content without breathing, so I know I will not be hitting end-game anytime soon after release.
Finally- if subscriptions are the only means of telling success- I guess Guild Wars is in big trouble. But it isn't. Enough said.
-W.
Vanguard isn't going to fail. In fact, I predict it will garner around 350,000-400,000 subscribers in the first six months. But that will drop, like a rock, down to around 175,000 or less in short order once people figure out that it's not what they thought it was going to be. When that happens, watch for SOE to try to make a lot of radical changes that won't bring in many new subscribers but will annoy hell out of the ones it has left.
Of course, we won't be able to verify that because SOE is shameless when it comes to distorting subscription numbers. If SOE made a game and the only person who was playing it was John Smedley, and finally he talked Raph Koster into playing too, the press release would read:
"SOE doubles subscriptions."
EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests
Just to the OP.
1. Vanguard will have a PvP server at launch
2. Vanguard will have Raiding as well at launch.
Current MMO of interest: Vanguard: Saga of Heroes
MMO background: EQ, UO, AO, SWG, PS, EQ2, L2,EQoA, WoW, WWIIO, and AC2
You should ahve a look at the vg forums. Most ppl are complaining how they don't like raiding and how endgame raiding shouldn't be the only thing for ppl to do at max lvl.
As for pvp, it will be alot harsher. I doubt it will be balanced and fair.
Have you played the beta because of alot of what your talking about sounds like rumors.
They've said the 20% of the world is created for casual gamers.
20% for raiding
60% for grouping.
Not everyone just wants 'pvp'andr 'raiding' some of us want more. Such as immersion, Huge lands to explore, a muture community, exciting combat, Classes that are different, meaningful travel, realistic graphics, etc.
It sounds to me like he's just another one of those WoW fanboi's who thinks every other game is out to get him. Other games that bring something new to the MMO market, and these 16 year old WoW players get all stifled and upset because they can level from 1-60 in 1 month tops in WoW.
Breaking news at 11: World of Warcraft sucks and yes it has the most subscribers but most of those players are not only from Asia, but they are playing because nothing else is out yet.
If you deny this simple fact, then you are asleep at the wheel.
I for one think Vanguard will succeed, maybe not in subscriptions like WoW has but I think it will do well, and I'm looking forward to it.
As always, one must define the meaning of terms otherwise one is just casting flamebait.
What do you mean by succeed ? What do you mean by fail ?
These terms are too emotionally loaded and are equivalent to calling someone's baby
ugly.
As pointed out earlier some consider success to be some number of subscriptions,
others point to the game making a profit, still others point to having a game live
up to its original vision, still others look at the market share within a given segment,
then there is reputation (one only needs to look at SOE- and even then it could
still be viewed multiple ways), and there are probably several others I have not
mentioned.
One man's failure is another man's success. If WoW had only sold 800K copies
would it have been a success ? What about a million ? What about 2 million ?
Who decides which number is the successful one ?
Profitability has to enter into the picture. A business will not be viable if it doesn't
meet its revenue targets. Unfortunately that is a function of the number of
subscriptions and how long you can hold on to your customers.
Market share is also a function of subscriptions but you can be on top one day
and at the bottom of the heap the next. So staying power has to enter into
the equation. Is six months successful, one year, two years, five years ?
We will all see how well the game sells and we can all make our own judgments as to
whether the game is/was a success or not.
In the meantime, put the crystal ball away, it should only be used by trained professionals.
I think an MMORPG has success not just by it's subscriptions, but by how the gamers perceive the game to be.
For example:
Probably one of the most successful MMORPG's to this date would have to be SWG and EQ1. Before the NGE hit, SWG was pretty incredible and was very successful. Everyone loved that game and played it hours and hours. As far as EQ1, that was another very successful MMORPG but it just kinda died out although alot of people still play it.
Both of these MMO's (SWG and EQ1) when they were in their prime didn't have 6 million subscribers, not even close but they were VERY successful and in my opinion they were more successful than World of Warcraft could ever be.
This proves that you can't say WoW is the best game or the most successful just because it has 5-6 mil subscribers.
As for End-game raiding- I have no idea on this one. I wouldn't mind it, but if it isn't there, I will not be disappointed, either. But I'm not a person who blows through the content without breathing, so I know I will not be hitting end-game anytime soon after release.
Finally- if subscriptions are the only means of telling success- I guess Guild Wars is in big trouble. But it isn't. Enough said.
OFT!
----------
"Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"No, your wrong.." - Random user #123
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
How are you?" -Me
1. i don't give a crap what any game does for "the market" wow owns the market right now so using that logic all games suck besides wow.
2. you have already come to the conclusion that vanguard wont be as good as all those games, based on what? because theres already games similar?
isn't wow your run of the mill fantasy mmo? didn't wow produce "nothing new" to the genre? and yet it owns "the market" seems that this logic is also flawed.
why don't we wait until the game is actually released until we start comparing them to games that are and saying it isn't as good.
and one other thing, warhammer isn't offering anything really new is it? Daoc style pvp and same fantasy setting but yet you think its going to be better than whats already out there?
kind of contradicts your argument doesn't it? I'm sure you wont like vanguard and thats what this is really about isn't it?
if vanguards fails or succeeds in other people's eyes that make no difference to me, if i have fun in a game that is all that matters. i don't play a game strictly because it is popular, i play it because it is fun...and if vanguard has only 150-200k ppl playing and I'm having fun, so be it.
EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests
Did you read my entire post or just what you wanted to? I said before the NGE launched.
Well I agree and disagree. I agree wow is the best game ever but for different reasons. 1 wow dosent force you to pvp like a lot of other games. If it did I woulldnt play, as I wont play an open pvp game. Im not going to pay some one to get my daly dose of harassment, I get emough of that in real life. Wow was very smart to have blue servers. Wow also has pvp servers though for those who want to pvp but happly i dont play on those servers. 2 you can solo all the way to the lvl cap in wow. No one wants to be forced to group although wow does do a lot of forced grouping by makeing you group to run the instances to get good armor and weapons you can however buy them on the ah, but its just cheeper to group and go get them.The fact that you really can solo to the lvl cap though is very important to millions of people includeing my self. Why game developers are so dumb to think most people want to be required to group is beyond me. 3 wow took most of the things that upset people out of the game, like kill stealing, ninja looting, griefing, and camping. You can still ninja loot in wow but most people are smart enough not to get in a goup unless they use the right looting options. Wow dosent have an overly harsh death penitly as no exp loss or armor loss just have to pay for repairing your armor and even that isant much really. With 6 million accounts it is clear to see that this is the formula for sucesss if vanguard or any other game comming out wants to be successful then they need to follow wows lead and add these important fetures to there game. I wanted to play d&d online but wouldnt becouse i heard it was strictly a group game so i stuck with wow. Quit semply game developers if you want my money give me a game that dosent force me to pvp or group. Dont let them ks or grief me, and give good content where i dont have to worry about people camping the mobs i need .Give me awesome sexy character models and good graphics. Make the game easy enough that i can lvl well threw out the whole game and btw the only down fall with wow in my opinion is wow is so small. Eq1 was probully 3 times bigger as far as the world goes. The main reason im looking for anther game is the been there done that sendrom lol. You are prolly right though is your assesment of vanguard, if they make you goup and have no solo classses its set to be a medioker not so sucessful game. I also heard that they werent going to have a good looting system wihch will allow for ninja looting that will really piss people off when a really good item drops and they dont get a chance at getting it. one of the biggest reasons i left eq1
Wow is a great mmorpg, but as one reviewer said "World of Warcraft, is like an mmorpg with training wheels eventually you will want to ride without them"
It will be interesting to see how Vanguard goes, I hope it does do something for the MMORPG market, and not just another dissapointment, But i think it's still to early to say
High hopes for Vanguard, really looking foward to it
-Manaia
Btw, very good post DarthRaevyn, it's always good to see other folks opinions and ideas
You most likely hate WoW because it destroyed the the shitty MMORPG community you were a part of whether it be Everquest or Star Wars: Galaxies or even City of Heroes. The thing is moron WoW may not be the "WHOAMG BEST GAME EVAR" but shit its better than most of the piling shit on the market. Levels 1-60 are an awesome experience and it really is the longest tutorial. Endgame is where the most fun at in WoW with raiding, PVP, and whatnot.
Honestly I've been to most of the major MMORPG boards from EQ to WoW to even The Matrix Online. The biggest complaints I've seen is the problems with PVP and the problems with endgame. The reason people don't go on PVP servers as much is because they're pussies and because pussies gank them. That's Blizzard implemented the BG's which isn't the perfect solution, but greatly reduced the gankage problems.
With that said Vanguard really will be lackluster as hell. It has nothing riding on it and no one gives a damn about the development team. So far I know 5 people who beta'd it and they tell me it's absolute shit compared to any half decent mmo.
so you are just trying to troll, and here i though you were actually attempting to start a thread with a decent discussion
BTW you are wrong on so many points i don't even know where to start, but grats on hating vanguard!
I'm a big ol' fluffy carewolf. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
[QUOTE] Ok jackasses when the game launches and UTTERLY FAILS at attaining the numbers the suits want what happens then? As one person already said SOE will further screw the game up because the current development team won't stay on forever because they will move onto bigger and better things. [/QUOTE]
You sure do know how to make friends and influence people to see your point of view .... NOT.
Despite the lame four letter words and proclamations of doom and gloom, you have not added anything to
the discussion. There are lots of possibilities for what can and will happen and your crystal ball is no more
reliable than the last guy.
If you don't think a lot of subs will be sold, that is okay. If you and your five friends don't think it will be as fun as WoW that is okay too. This is not Tom's betting parlor where we are taking odds on whether it will sell more or less than a million subs. Nor are we taking bets on whether gameplay is better or worse than WoW. The jury is still out. And until the jury makes its decision, we don't freaking care about your opinions or predictions.
Now run along and find another pond to troll in.
As for the SOE talk, SOE can't even touch the game. They're just co-publishing. They can't touch the game code.