I think my earlier estimates of SWG's sub decline progression was too optimistic (in SOE's favor) based on my experience looking around the 5 so-called "medium" population servers over the last 4 days. I quit playing the game back in early September, and the population has seen another big drop since even then.
Based on what I saw, there couldn't have been 150-250 concurrent players on each of those 5 servers. ANd that is being generous, as I couldn't head count more than 30 after going to all the main gathering areas. Extrapolating to the other 20 "light and very light" servers, my guess is that I'd be overly generous to say they have an average of 125-150 concurrent users.
These are estimates that, IMHO are overly generous.
All this was at peak time on Saturday night.
So, 20 x 150= 3000 concurrent players on the light servers.
5 x 250= 1250 concurrent players on the medium servers.
That is a total of about 4250 concurrent players at peak time on a weekend. Formulae for MMO's state that between 10 and 20% of your total sub base will be logged in at any given peak time.
If 4250 was 10% of SWG's total sub base, then they have about 42,500 subs left.
If 4250 was 20% of SWG's total sub base, then they have about 21,250 subs left.
Keep in mind that my observation was done at peak time during a time where they have an open free vet trial, AND a free open to everyone 14 day trial in which you can now leave the station, and that I extrapolated my estimates ABOVE what I actually think were present. On Bloodfin, for example, a server I played on for 2+ years, I know the habits of the guilds and populations, having only recently quit. I went to all those places, and I could not see more than 30 people, yet I calculated the concurrent users at 250.
With this being the case, it's pretty easy to see why they suddenly offered the vet trial and opened the new player trial to the whole game (not just the station).
And it's also easy to see why you are seeing irrational "F-YOU" rants by ChrisCao, Helios posting in a drunken stupor, and the normally mild mannered TH acting testy and "throwing forum posters out the airlock" as he's stated.
They are about to get axed, en masse, and they know it. This upcoming publish, the boxed set, and the holiday season is it.
I like my chances of winning the Powerball better than theirs.
Comments
Agreed.
I went back on the 14 day trial this weekend. logged in to several servers on Saturday night, and found the population everywhere to be sickeningly low.
Indeed, but overall its really hard to see how many subs there is, people might be out, gone, anywhere.
Still what i see from all that posts on the game play discussion on swg forum everyone says they arent playing (just writing on the forums). So of your numbres they might be right, but i think they are even lower, rly.
From my own experience, since Bria is the biggest (and its quite empty) at most 15k subs.
Starwars Galaxies, An Empier Diveded, That's what it says on my box anyway.
Good times.
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"Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"No, your wrong.." - Random user #123
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
How are you?" -Me
True
Starwars Galaxies, An Empier Diveded, That's what it says on my box anyway.
That's why they are so angry. Angry with seething rage, the Devs are. Their goose is already cooked, and their only way out is to give the players what they want back. They have such a bunker mentality, at this point, I think they despise us ever bit as much as we despise them, and surrender is a bitter pill I don't think they are capable of swallowing.
You see, the so-called "vocal minority" has proven a bunch of so-called "professionals" not only wrong, but Earth shatteringly wrong.
Fairly well thought out. Add into that the recent comments by Dev's on the numbers of players that post, and we're looking at 20k to 40k subs, and that's being generous. Most professionals believe that 30% of Subscribers will be on at peak times, even though WoW has said they see up to 60%, with a low of 45%.
Add to SOE's sub problem the Next Gen games & consoles rolling out, and SWG is as good as dead, and they know it. This Expertise run is their last desperate attempt to save the game, and it's clear it won't work. Expect SWG ti switch to support-only mode and no further expansions. If we're lucky, LA or SOE will pull the plug. The only thing that could savethis game is groveling, and a Rollback to Pre-NGE with our old toons OR fresh Pre-CU servers, and these morons are a bit too slow to figure that out.
I'll start my own SWG... with Black Jack... and Hookers!!!
In fact, forget the SWG!!!!
I know I couldn't see everybody, that's why I gook my observed number and basically multiplied it by 4 to get my low end of the estimate. I was being EXTREMELY generous, and SWG still comes out with <50K total subs, and how many of them were free vet and noob trials that don't earn them any money at all, I couldn't tell.
But my guess is a LOT of the greycon combat grinders I saw in Mos Eisley (the only location you could find more than 15 people in one place) are trials and not regular subs.
Yeah, I'm just wondering where we can verify the info.
But my guess is a LOT of the greycon combat grinders I saw in Mos Eisley (the only location you could find more than 15 people in one place) are trials and not regular subs.
I found my experience to be an evolution. I went back to use up an old time card, and at first I found that the game was more full. Then I started counting. There were battles of 25 V 25 in Restuss, making VERY exciting battles, however that was the largest I saw. Traveling around I found pockets of 5 to 10 people here or there, and the streets felt busier. Then I realized there was some trickery at play: It seems the Dev's have added more MOB's & NPC's to cities, to make them feel a bit more crowded. I confirmed this by looking at some old screenies.
I will say that there are more people on than 6 months ago, but at peak hours I never saw more than 100 toons, and remember that most people switch between toons 2-3 times in a few hours, which adds to the illusion.
I'll start my own SWG... with Black Jack... and Hookers!!!
In fact, forget the SWG!!!!
I'll start my own SWG... with Black Jack... and Hookers!!!
In fact, forget the SWG!!!!
I can tell you being the 5000th guy in cue to play is insane.... it happens though.
______________________________
I usually picture the Career builder commercial with the room full of monkeys and upside down sales chart when thinking about the SOE/SWG decision making process.....
SOE's John Blakely and Todd Fiala issued a warning: "Don't make our mistakes." Ref NGE
Winner of the worst MMOS goes to.... the NGE and SWG..!!! http://www.mmorpg.com/showFeature.cfm?loadFeature=1034&bhcp=1
But my guess is a LOT of the greycon combat grinders I saw in Mos Eisley (the only location you could find more than 15 people in one place) are trials and not regular subs.
I found my experience to be an evolution. I went back to use up an old time card, and at first I found that the game was more full. Then I started counting. There were battles of 25 V 25 in Restuss, making VERY exciting battles, however that was the largest I saw. Traveling around I found pockets of 5 to 10 people here or there, and the streets felt busier. Then I realized there was some trickery at play: It seems the Dev's have added more MOB's & NPC's to cities, to make them feel a bit more crowded. I confirmed this by looking at some old screenies.
I will say that there are more people on than 6 months ago, but at peak hours I never saw more than 100 toons, and remember that most people switch between toons 2-3 times in a few hours, which adds to the illusion.
I played steadily from the NGE inception until early last month, and I can tell you that other than a brief period between the Restuss buildup and Jedi expertise, there was a small increase on Bloodfin, I saw some old names come back for a time. But it's been in freefall since. Simply put, people came back, didn't like what they saw, and left again. Even at NGE's "peak" (which was around May-June) Bloodfin didn't have half the people it did prior to NGE, which was down from Pre-CU.
But my guess is a LOT of the greycon combat grinders I saw in Mos Eisley (the only location you could find more than 15 people in one place) are trials and not regular subs.
I found my experience to be an evolution. I went back to use up an old time card, and at first I found that the game was more full. Then I started counting. There were battles of 25 V 25 in Restuss, making VERY exciting battles, however that was the largest I saw. Traveling around I found pockets of 5 to 10 people here or there, and the streets felt busier. Then I realized there was some trickery at play: It seems the Dev's have added more MOB's & NPC's to cities, to make them feel a bit more crowded. I confirmed this by looking at some old screenies.
I will say that there are more people on than 6 months ago, but at peak hours I never saw more than 100 toons, and remember that most people switch between toons 2-3 times in a few hours, which adds to the illusion.
I played steadily from the NGE inception until early last month, and I can tell you that other than a brief period between the Restuss buildup and Jedi expertise, there was a small increase on Bloodfin, I saw some old names come back for a time. But it's been in freefall since. Simply put, people came back, didn't like what they saw, and left again. Even at NGE's "peak" (which was around May-June) Bloodfin didn't have half the people it did prior to NGE, which was down from Pre-CU.
O rly? I remember quite clearly you stating that the populations were rapidly falling before, during and after that time frame.
What makes your statement different this time?
But my guess is a LOT of the greycon combat grinders I saw in Mos Eisley (the only location you could find more than 15 people in one place) are trials and not regular subs.
I found my experience to be an evolution. I went back to use up an old time card, and at first I found that the game was more full. Then I started counting. There were battles of 25 V 25 in Restuss, making VERY exciting battles, however that was the largest I saw. Traveling around I found pockets of 5 to 10 people here or there, and the streets felt busier. Then I realized there was some trickery at play: It seems the Dev's have added more MOB's & NPC's to cities, to make them feel a bit more crowded. I confirmed this by looking at some old screenies.
I will say that there are more people on than 6 months ago, but at peak hours I never saw more than 100 toons, and remember that most people switch between toons 2-3 times in a few hours, which adds to the illusion.
I played steadily from the NGE inception until early last month, and I can tell you that other than a brief period between the Restuss buildup and Jedi expertise, there was a small increase on Bloodfin, I saw some old names come back for a time. But it's been in freefall since. Simply put, people came back, didn't like what they saw, and left again. Even at NGE's "peak" (which was around May-June) Bloodfin didn't have half the people it did prior to NGE, which was down from Pre-CU.
O rly? I remember quite clearly you stating that the populations were rapidly falling before, during and after that time frame.
What makes your statement different this time?
The words he used this time to construct the sentance.
lol, sorry, smartass comming out.
*Points gun at Wildcat84*
Now answer Obraik's question!!
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"Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"No, your wrong.." - Random user #123
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
How are you?" -Me
Let's just say that May-June was the time when they were losing the fewest subscribers.
The current time is probably another period of least loss, because of all the free trials, and the fact that the lower the water level in the leaking bucket, the slower the drip.
The bottom line: The population I personally witnessed in the game isn't enough to adequately support 3 servers, much less 25. That is WAY the hell down from CU and Pre-CU.
O your funny.... I saw your comment on the suck boards....
TH watches me like a hawk to put out my fires on a constant basis.... as you saw today.
See the difference between you and me is that no matter what you say or try to, people do know and see what is really going on.
You can try to fluff them all you want but they are not that stupid... they just arn't.
Your comments are made in "worry", if half of what I said or others said did not bother you , you would not post.
So far as I said there it's isk 11 -- SOE devs 0 -- 11 months of me being right and 0 months of them being successful.
I can back mine up... can you back yours up?
______________________________
I usually picture the Career builder commercial with the room full of monkeys and upside down sales chart when thinking about the SOE/SWG decision making process.....
SOE's John Blakely and Todd Fiala issued a warning: "Don't make our mistakes." Ref NGE
Winner of the worst MMOS goes to.... the NGE and SWG..!!! http://www.mmorpg.com/showFeature.cfm?loadFeature=1034&bhcp=1
Noticing people coming back & leaving again is different than people coming back & staying, Spin-Boy...
I'll start my own SWG... with Black Jack... and Hookers!!!
In fact, forget the SWG!!!!
Noticing people coming back & leaving again is different than people coming back & staying, Spin-Boy...
Spin? It's the truth A peak cannot happen if numbers are rapidly falling, both of which are descriptions Wildcat has used for the same period of time...
O your funny.... I saw your comment on the suck boards....
TH watches me like a hawk to put out my fires on a constant basis.... as you saw today.
See the difference between you and me is that no matter what you say or try to, people do know and see what is really going on.
You can try to fluff them all you want but they are not that stupid... they just arn't.
Your comments are made in "worry", if half of what I said or others said did not bother you , you would not post.
So far as I said there it's isk 11 -- SOE devs 0 -- 11 months of me being right and 0 months of them being successful.
I can back mine up... can you back yours up?
Worry about you? Lol, you think too highly of yourself
By that definition, I must have you worried since you came here posting about it in a thread that has nothing to do with what you're talking about...
Notice I put the word "peak" in quotes. I meant it sarcastically.
May-June was it for them. They had the summits. They had people somewhat excited about Restuss and expertise.
Then they failed to deliver on both. Plus, hundreds and hundreds of us went to summits, and 6 months later, see that once again we were lied to and overpromised.
Hmmm. I've never participated in these threads about guestimating the number of SWG subscribers, cause it ususally becomes flamewars between the Pro-NGE'ers(poor bastards), and the "disgruntled vets". But as they say there is a first for everything, so here is my opinion on the subject.
Given the state of the game, SOE's poor relationship with the playerbase, and the history of the game so far, i would assume that the actually percentage of the subscribers playing the game is lower than 10-20%. I believe that many subscribers have active accounts without even playing the game. So my guess would be about 5% of the subscribers are actually playing. That would mean according to your calculations that the number of subscribers might be higher if im guessing right here. The sad part for me isnt really about the subscribers, but the small number of people that actually play the game. And the numbers you are presenting here tells me that SWG is pretty much doomed.
Yeah, didn't think so.
Notice I put the word "peak" in quotes. I meant it sarcastically.
May-June was it for them. They had the summits. They had people somewhat excited about Restuss and expertise.
Then they failed to deliver on both. Plus, hundreds and hundreds of us went to summits, and 6 months later, see that once again we were lied to and overpromised.
And what about this statement you made then:
While you say it was only small (although not sure I'd call 3 months brief), it's still the complete opposite of what you were saying back then...
Keep in mind, these numbers I posted are VERY conservative, and are being overly generous. They put the range of SWG subs (paying and trials) at somewhere between 20 and 40K. That is not good.
I could have used Koster's figure of % of subs are on at peak times and it would have looked even worse.
Take away the trial users, and you might be looking at less than 20K actual subscribers left. That is most definitely not good at all. They are certainly not making money at that subscriber level, not with 25 servers running and being maintained, and with any development/support at all going on. Only way they make money with that is cut the servers to no more than 3, get rid of all but 2-3 CSR's, get rid of all but about 4 Devs, and fire all but one of the forum mods. If they did all that the sub level would drop even lower, as you'd basically end up only with the remaining subs from the 3 servers you kept, most of the rest on the servers that were yanked would quit.