One way to do it would be to find how many people are needed to be online to tag a server high (If I am not mistaken for Vanguard is 5-7K) and see how many people are playing at peak time.
Most game servers can handle between 2500 to 3000 players at a time. Eve and AO are the exception. Where did you get the 5-7k numbers from?
It was something a developer posted in the beta forums. Because the world was so big they where shooting for higher server populations than most games, so areas wouldnt feel deserted. The beta servers usually had 5k+ players up. The peak I read somewhere was 6k +. The beta server 1 at euro hours that i used to play had always around 3-4k players showing ,when they showed numbers. When they changed it to descriptions it was always medium.
Visiting the VG characters site, it's easy to see there are well over 300,000 characters. I "guess" the average # of characters is 3 each. That makes 100,000 subscribers. And yes, I mean subscribers; the free 10-day trial is LONG gone. Nevermind the number of "buddy key beggars" here. For a game that some libel, I"ve never seen so many people begging to play it. Every day in VG, I see areas get busier and busier. Now when I visit the crafting halls I see more than a dozen players in just one building! On the server select screen, several servers report "high" population. Form your own opinion on what constitutes "high populatoin" on a VG game server. Consider how huge the game world is. It is rare when I find myself alone in the wilderness. Even in remote areas, I pass by other players frequently. Yes I predict VG will well surpass the 500k mark. Nice work Sigil!
The free trial period is 30 days, not 10 days. The soonest it will expire is the end of February.
Before people keep on burning brain cells trying to figure out numbers, a small note. SOE's pages of counting toons, displaying discoveries, deaths etc , never have and probably never will work correctly in any game. So dont really try to figure out something based on wrong data . One way to do it would be to find how many people are needed to be online to tag a server high (If I am not mistaken for Vanguard is 5-7K) and see how many people are playing at peak time. Still that doesnt tell you what is the turnover , and how many people dont play at peak hours etc , but can easily give you a minimum. I mean if 10 servers at some point tag as high population , this means that current population is at minimum 50k . Personnaly I get the feel this game currently has about 80-100k subscribers. Which is a normal for a game of its kind. For comparison here are some of the numbers during the first few months of some MMORG's with their peak suubscription numbers. Asheron's Call 60k first 3 months peak at 120k. Anarchy Online 60k after 2 months which was its peak Horizons 35k after 2 montsh which was the peak DnD online 90k after 2 months Everquest 100k after 6 months peak was 4 years later at 550k Ultima Online 50k after 3 months peak was 3 years later 250k Dark Age of Camelot 110k after 1 month peak was 1 year later at 250k EVE online 15k after a few months, currently at 120k and rising EQ2 320k after 1 month which was a peak, stabilized at around 200k after a few months SWG 300k after 1 month was a peak. I am not including MMORG's with no subscription (guild wars, lineage's) and WoW who's numbers are the exception and not the rule of the genre. I think the peak of Vanguard will come at the end of this year. Most people will come following word of mouth when the game is more polished and bug free, and if I can judge by myself this isnt happening yet. I cant really recomment it to my friends just yet. For two reasons. First because the game is not ready yet. There a lot of things they must work, fix, balance etc. Second is that I need a big head start so I can use my dragon to harrass all my newbie friends when they come over.
This is one of the best posts I've seen on MMORPG. Good info and I'm inclined to believe it. I also agree with your assessment that of 80k to 100k current players. Naysayers, keep the following in mind:
1. Vanguard had miniscule marketing. The only reason I knew about its release is because I've been following it. When I bought VG and told an old EQ friend about it, he never even heard of VG. That same friend is now playing VG every night.
2. Vanguard was compelled to release three months early by SOE. It has gotten horrendous press on these forums as a result of "game breaking" bugs that I personally never experience.
3. Burning Crusade just came out. Certainly has WoW folks wanting to try it out...but that will fade rapidly based on what I've heard (that it's more of the same).
Yes, if VG has 100k players now, in light of these three things working against it, I'd say VG is a sleeping giant that will awaken to be a huge hit.
LOTRO is going to be just a blip on VG's screen...just like Diablo II. This is my opinion based on researching the game on the LOTRO site... and seeing posts here.
Luckily, i don't need you to like me to enjoy video games. -nariusseldon. In F2P I think it's more a case of the game's trying to play the player's. -laserit
Before people keep on burning brain cells trying to figure out numbers, a small note. SOE's pages of counting toons, displaying discoveries, deaths etc , never have and probably never will work correctly in any game. So dont really try to figure out something based on wrong data . One way to do it would be to find how many people are needed to be online to tag a server high (If I am not mistaken for Vanguard is 5-7K) and see how many people are playing at peak time. Still that doesnt tell you what is the turnover , and how many people dont play at peak hours etc , but can easily give you a minimum. I mean if 10 servers at some point tag as high population , this means that current population is at minimum 50k . Personnaly I get the feel this game currently has about 80-100k subscribers. Which is a normal for a game of its kind. For comparison here are some of the numbers during the first few months of some MMORG's with their peak suubscription numbers. Asheron's Call 60k first 3 months peak at 120k. Anarchy Online 60k after 2 months which was its peak Horizons 35k after 2 montsh which was the peak DnD online 90k after 2 months Everquest 100k after 6 months peak was 4 years later at 550k Ultima Online 50k after 3 months peak was 3 years later 250k Dark Age of Camelot 110k after 1 month peak was 1 year later at 250k EVE online 15k after a few months, currently at 120k and rising EQ2 320k after 1 month which was a peak, stabilized at around 200k after a few months SWG 300k after 1 month was a peak. I am not including MMORG's with no subscription (guild wars, lineage's) and WoW who's numbers are the exception and not the rule of the genre. I think the peak of Vanguard will come at the end of this year. Most people will come following word of mouth when the game is more polished and bug free, and if I can judge by myself this isnt happening yet. I cant really recomment it to my friends just yet. For two reasons. First because the game is not ready yet. There a lot of things they must work, fix, balance etc. Second is that I need a big head start so I can use my dragon to harrass all my newbie friends when they come over.
This is one of the best posts I've seen on MMORPG. Good info and I'm inclined to believe it. I also agree with your assessment that of 80k to 100k current players. Naysayers, keep the following in mind:
1. Vanguard had miniscule marketing. The only reason I knew about its release is because I've been following it. When I bought VG and told an old EQ friend about it, he never even heard of VG. That same friend is now playing VG every night.
2. Vanguard was compelled to release three months early by SOE. It has gotten horrendous press on these forums as a result of "game breaking" bugs that I personally never experience.
3. Burning Crusade just came out. Certainly has WoW folks wanting to try it out...but that will fade rapidly based on what I've heard (that it's more of the same).
Yes, if VG has 100k players now, in light of these three things working against it, I'd say VG is a sleeping giant that will awaken to be a huge hit.
LOTRO is going to be just a blip on VG's screen...just like Diablo II. This is my opinion based on researching the game on the LOTRO site... and seeing posts here.
Diablo II was one of the most entertaining games I have ever played.
If LOTRO was even half as interesting as Diablo II, I'd likely have 6 subscriptions running at any given time.
Waiting for something fresh to arrive on the MMO scene...
Visiting the VG characters site, it's easy to see there are well over 300,000 characters. I "guess" the average # of characters is 3 each. That makes 100,000 subscribers. And yes, I mean subscribers; the free 10-day trial is LONG gone. Nevermind the number of "buddy key beggars" here. For a game that some libel, I"ve never seen so many people begging to play it. Every day in VG, I see areas get busier and busier. Now when I visit the crafting halls I see more than a dozen players in just one building! On the server select screen, several servers report "high" population. Form your own opinion on what constitutes "high populatoin" on a VG game server. Consider how huge the game world is. It is rare when I find myself alone in the wilderness. Even in remote areas, I pass by other players frequently. Yes I predict VG will well surpass the 500k mark. Nice work Sigil!
How can there be subscribers when the game isn't a month old yet? Do you understand what a subscription is?
The question is, do YOU know what a subscription is? I have subscribed to play just like alot of others. I may not have been charged anything yet but I am still a subscriber to the game.
sub·scrip·tion
1. a sum of money given or pledged as a contribution, payment, investment, etc.
2. assent, agreement, or approval expressed verbally or by signing one's name.
. So lighten up
If you have ever taken accounting, you know businesses don't look at it this way... Box sales are not counted as assets for future contributions... This isn NOT and example of accrued revenue (service provided, payment delayed)... After the 30 days is up, and provided they do not cancel, then it is a subscription... As of right now all you have is a box with a free trial, nothing more, nothing less...
But in your "gamer world" call it whatever you want... Sigil will be paying close attention to retained players once the sub fees hit...
As number 2. states. it is still an agreement! When you sign up to play Vanguard after purchasing the game, you are making an agreement when you SUBSCRIBE to play. You have the option to cancel your subscription at the end of 30 days and not be charged anything but, you still have subsribed to the game ( SUBSCRIPTION). Now if you want to get into accounting then you can discuss revenue in another thread. The Op was stating the number of subscriber's not the amount of income for VG.
So you have never subscribed to receive periodic emails? I guess all those "unsubscribe" buttons on emails are not real, since there was never a monetary agreement to receive them.
Cymdai, I'm glad you enjoyed Diablo II. Did you just want to mention that? Cool, I like Pizza.
Luckily, i don't need you to like me to enjoy video games. -nariusseldon. In F2P I think it's more a case of the game's trying to play the player's. -laserit
Visiting the VG characters site, it's easy to see there are well over 300,000 characters. I "guess" the average # of characters is 3 each. That makes 100,000 subscribers. And yes, I mean subscribers; the free 10-day trial is LONG gone. Nevermind the number of "buddy key beggars" here. For a game that some libel, I"ve never seen so many people begging to play it. Every day in VG, I see areas get busier and busier. Now when I visit the crafting halls I see more than a dozen players in just one building! On the server select screen, several servers report "high" population. Form your own opinion on what constitutes "high populatoin" on a VG game server. Consider how huge the game world is. It is rare when I find myself alone in the wilderness. Even in remote areas, I pass by other players frequently. Yes I predict VG will well surpass the 500k mark. Nice work Sigil!
Nice numbers but at this point nobody is actually paying a monthly subscription rate. Everybody is still on their "free" month that was included with purchase. Let's see what those numbers look like in a month or two.
Visiting the VG characters site, it's easy to see there are well over 300,000 characters. I "guess" the average # of characters is 3 each. That makes 100,000 subscribers. And yes, I mean subscribers; the free 10-day trial is LONG gone. Nevermind the number of "buddy key beggars" here. For a game that some libel, I"ve never seen so many people begging to play it. Every day in VG, I see areas get busier and busier. Now when I visit the crafting halls I see more than a dozen players in just one building! On the server select screen, several servers report "high" population. Form your own opinion on what constitutes "high populatoin" on a VG game server. Consider how huge the game world is. It is rare when I find myself alone in the wilderness. Even in remote areas, I pass by other players frequently. Yes I predict VG will well surpass the 500k mark. Nice work Sigil!
I dont play vanguard but I think I will start, But this is the population:98656 just pulled it off a site, and I wasnt sure it was true till I added up the server populations on multiple sites, and they all added up the this, or VERY close to this, like 1000 off, so Id say this is the right population
Comments
Hehe, true again
"Before this battle is over all the world will know that few...stood against many." - King Leonidas
This is one of the best posts I've seen on MMORPG. Good info and I'm inclined to believe it. I also agree with your assessment that of 80k to 100k current players. Naysayers, keep the following in mind:
1. Vanguard had miniscule marketing. The only reason I knew about its release is because I've been following it. When I bought VG and told an old EQ friend about it, he never even heard of VG. That same friend is now playing VG every night.
2. Vanguard was compelled to release three months early by SOE. It has gotten horrendous press on these forums as a result of "game breaking" bugs that I personally never experience.
3. Burning Crusade just came out. Certainly has WoW folks wanting to try it out...but that will fade rapidly based on what I've heard (that it's more of the same).
Yes, if VG has 100k players now, in light of these three things working against it, I'd say VG is a sleeping giant that will awaken to be a huge hit.
LOTRO is going to be just a blip on VG's screen...just like Diablo II. This is my opinion based on researching the game on the LOTRO site... and seeing posts here.
Luckily, i don't need you to like me to enjoy video games. -nariusseldon.
In F2P I think it's more a case of the game's trying to play the player's. -laserit
This is one of the best posts I've seen on MMORPG. Good info and I'm inclined to believe it. I also agree with your assessment that of 80k to 100k current players. Naysayers, keep the following in mind:
1. Vanguard had miniscule marketing. The only reason I knew about its release is because I've been following it. When I bought VG and told an old EQ friend about it, he never even heard of VG. That same friend is now playing VG every night.
2. Vanguard was compelled to release three months early by SOE. It has gotten horrendous press on these forums as a result of "game breaking" bugs that I personally never experience.
3. Burning Crusade just came out. Certainly has WoW folks wanting to try it out...but that will fade rapidly based on what I've heard (that it's more of the same).
Yes, if VG has 100k players now, in light of these three things working against it, I'd say VG is a sleeping giant that will awaken to be a huge hit.
LOTRO is going to be just a blip on VG's screen...just like Diablo II. This is my opinion based on researching the game on the LOTRO site... and seeing posts here.
Diablo II was one of the most entertaining games I have ever played.If LOTRO was even half as interesting as Diablo II, I'd likely have 6 subscriptions running at any given time.
Waiting for something fresh to arrive on the MMO scene...
The question is, do YOU know what a subscription is? I have subscribed to play just like alot of others. I may not have been charged anything yet but I am still a subscriber to the game.
sub·scrip·tion
1. a sum of money given or pledged as a contribution, payment, investment, etc.
2. assent, agreement, or approval expressed verbally or by signing one's name.
. So lighten up
If you have ever taken accounting, you know businesses don't look at it this way... Box sales are not counted as assets for future contributions... This isn NOT and example of accrued revenue (service provided, payment delayed)... After the 30 days is up, and provided they do not cancel, then it is a subscription... As of right now all you have is a box with a free trial, nothing more, nothing less...
But in your "gamer world" call it whatever you want... Sigil will be paying close attention to retained players once the sub fees hit...
As number 2. states. it is still an agreement! When you sign up to play Vanguard after purchasing the game, you are making an agreement when you SUBSCRIBE to play. You have the option to cancel your subscription at the end of 30 days and not be charged anything but, you still have subsribed to the game ( SUBSCRIPTION). Now if you want to get into accounting then you can discuss revenue in another thread. The Op was stating the number of subscriber's not the amount of income for VG.
So you have never subscribed to receive periodic emails? I guess all those "unsubscribe" buttons on emails are not real, since there was never a monetary agreement to receive them.
As I said before. Lighten up!
Luckily, i don't need you to like me to enjoy video games. -nariusseldon.
In F2P I think it's more a case of the game's trying to play the player's. -laserit
"Anyone know how long it takes before initial sales and sub numbers for a game are released? And where to view them. Thanks."
"I can't get into specifics, but we are well over 100,000 and growing steadily every day." -Aradune Mithara
So there you have it, over 100k subs and growing steadily