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WoW going down in 2007?
brodiej2001
Member Posts: 17
*first I'd like to say that I will be playing LoTRO, AoC and WAR and that I have enjoyed, and still enjoy playing WoW - so I feel I'm in no way biased*
I'm thinking this will be an interesting year for MMORPG's.
With the release of Lord of the Rings Online (or WoW 2 as some call it), Age of Conan and Warhammer Online I see jaded WoW subscribers flocking to those games in droves.
We're always hearing <insert game> will bring WoW down, but I think all three combined will contribute to WoW's ultimate demise.
Lord of the Rings Online: Let's face it, one of the biggest reasons WoW became so popular is because it came out at the peak of the Lord of the Ring's movies success. I'd say a large percentage of people who subscribed to WoW originally was because they wanted to feel emersed in a fantasy world that reminded them of the movies and books will flock to this game. The "carebears" will also find this game appealing.
Age of Conan: This game is becoming popular. Really popular. If this game doesn't affect WoW's numbers I don't know what will. Superb graphics, innovative fighting, detailed character customization, extremely cool classes and so on.
Warhammer Online: Another contributor to WoW's success. This game will be PvP central. Anyone who regards themselves as a hardcore PvP'er will definitely start playing this game.
I'm interested in what you think
Oh, by the way, by "demise" I don't mean that by 2008 WoW will have a population of 23 people. I just mean that these games will have a majorly negative effect on WoW. ie, giving them a nice swift kick to the balls.
I'm thinking this will be an interesting year for MMORPG's.
With the release of Lord of the Rings Online (or WoW 2 as some call it), Age of Conan and Warhammer Online I see jaded WoW subscribers flocking to those games in droves.
We're always hearing <insert game> will bring WoW down, but I think all three combined will contribute to WoW's ultimate demise.
Lord of the Rings Online: Let's face it, one of the biggest reasons WoW became so popular is because it came out at the peak of the Lord of the Ring's movies success. I'd say a large percentage of people who subscribed to WoW originally was because they wanted to feel emersed in a fantasy world that reminded them of the movies and books will flock to this game. The "carebears" will also find this game appealing.
Age of Conan: This game is becoming popular. Really popular. If this game doesn't affect WoW's numbers I don't know what will. Superb graphics, innovative fighting, detailed character customization, extremely cool classes and so on.
Warhammer Online: Another contributor to WoW's success. This game will be PvP central. Anyone who regards themselves as a hardcore PvP'er will definitely start playing this game.
I'm interested in what you think
Oh, by the way, by "demise" I don't mean that by 2008 WoW will have a population of 23 people. I just mean that these games will have a majorly negative effect on WoW. ie, giving them a nice swift kick to the balls.
Comments
Then we will open the champagne, celebrate the new year and start to make pointless predictions which title of 2008 is going to be the "WoW killer", just like every year.
Subscribtions: EVE, SWTOR WOW, WAR, DDO, VG, AOC, COV, FFXI, GW, RFO, Aion
+plenty of F2P, betas, trials
Female Dwarf player: WOW, VG, WAR, DDO
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Due to the recent economic crisis and spending cuts the light at the end of the tunnel was turned off. Sincerely, God.
I just cant see much of anything hurting WoW. Not right now anyways.
I really wouldn't be surprised to see kids playing AoC, regardless of the rating it ends up with. Plenty of stupid parents will buy little Johnny whatever he wants.
Currently playing:
LOTRO, Rift (beta) and WoW (on occasion)
I really wouldn't be surprised to see kids playing AoC, regardless of the rating it ends up with. Plenty of stupid parents will buy little Johnny whatever he wants.
OFC, but it will be limited anyway. Also not sure if the setting will appeal to kids, the dark atmosphere might keep them away better than the rating maybe.
Subscribtions: EVE, SWTOR WOW, WAR, DDO, VG, AOC, COV, FFXI, GW, RFO, Aion
+plenty of F2P, betas, trials
Female Dwarf player: WOW, VG, WAR, DDO
.
Due to the recent economic crisis and spending cuts the light at the end of the tunnel was turned off. Sincerely, God.
Currently playing:
LOTRO, Rift (beta) and WoW (on occasion)
I agree with you Gameloading. We have all been around the block with this "wow killer" stuff so many times. The main thing in WoW is most of those players are not generally MMORPG players. There has been alittle bleedover into some other games but not much. In fact most of WoW's peer MMO's are either stable or shrinking in Subs.
MMORPGers need to stop worrying about junk like "whats going to kill WoW" and start demanding some QUALITY be put into the games that do launch. Vanguard, for all its potential, really just kicked the reputation of MMORPG's in the crotch in the eyes of the rest of the gaming industry.
There will never be any significant bleedover or surge of players if MMO designers keep putting out games that are unfinished, buggy, dull and repetitive grinders that all imitate one another.
Dev's need to start thinking outside of the little box they live in. I know I'm not alone when I say I'm tired of the usual VanLord: Dark age of Ever Final Lineage Wars in Dungeons 2, starring Conan in Rome in the Chronicles of Heros....quest. Now go fetch 10 rat tails!
LOTRO: Will probably take quite a few. Since it's quite polished, decently fun, and it's Lotr duh.
Age of Conan: Promises great things. But we don't really know if it delivers, yet.
W.A.R: Same as above. Looking good, but still hard to tell how it will do when it is released. And most likely it's not released this year. But the fact that it is Warhammer might draw quite a few Wow players.
Also, we still don't know what Blizzard plans. They have said they are going to release one expansion per year now. We got one this year, chances are big they might announce something around the end of this year. What they announce has alot to say.
Lets face facts here. Nearly 3 years in the game and its still gaining subscribers all the time. I think they are approaching 9 million players now which is an INSANE amount (ok lineage 2 has 14 million but its near on korean law to play it so :-p )
i dont think LOTRO will touch it, mainly because its not what warcraft players expect from a game. The prospect of only 4 classes and an entire game to level up (which is how they all think, i know, i play warcraft) is gonna be a massive turn-off for them.
i truely think the only thing that will bring this giant down is Blizzard itself caving in from its own greed and foolishness.
yep I reckon it will go down, maybe down to 8m/7.5m by the end of the year or so. Lotr Online I reckon will do very well maybe getting 500k+ subscribers. And Age of Conan I got no idea how well it will do but should do well. Warhammer, I'm not so sure will be released this year.
Of course "losing popularity" for WoW could still mean 1 million NA subscribers. Blizzard isn't going to be hurting any time soon that's for sure. Unless they pull an NGE. If anyone will kill WoW it's Blizzard.
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Life sucks, buy a helmet.
WoW isn't going down anytime soon. In fact, it is entirely likely that WoW will still have a loyal (if delusional) playerbase on private servers when Blizzard finally pulls the plug on their servers. That said, the MMORPGs coming out this year and beyond don't have to carve deeply into WoW's playerbase to be successful. Most MMORPGs do just fine with 100,000+ players, which is easily attainable without making even a dent in Blizzard's revenues.
I feel that LOTRO will do rather well, due to their built-in fanbase. They may take away a fraction of the WoW playerbase (mostly "Carebears and RPers"), but this won't hurt WoW at all. AoC and WAR may take a fraction of WoW's playerbase later in the year, appealing to the PvP crowd (as well as their individual fanbases), but again I don't see either being a true "threat" to WoW. Worst case scenario for Blizzard: They level out on their subscriptions between 8 and 9 million, at least until the next WoW expansion comes out.
Currently playing:
LOTRO, Rift (beta) and WoW (on occasion)
DIABLO ONLINE >>>> DO
Well, if I was Blizzard, I would rather see people leave WoW for DO rather than for any other MMO. That way the money stays at Blizzard.
DO will not kill WoW, but divide it. However it will be the second HUGE magnet that will draw in more people away from other MMO's espeically this time not only will it clean out Battle.net evenmore, it will grab High Fantasy players from all other online games from The Realm, UO, Adventure Quest, AC, EQ, EQ2, DAoC, VG:SoH and on and on and on....
In the end, most MMO worlds will be shutting down their servers and sweeping up the empty clean rooms. Most developers will be fantasizing about how they would have each executive officer at Blizzrd knocked off. While Blizzard counts their monthly income from their 20+ Million subscribers that are divided between WoW & DO. While we all are deep into the chasms of caves and etc working our way down into Hell to eventually getting a 100 man lvl 60+ raid quest going to take down Diablo himself.
My theme song.
That being said, in the mmorpg community WoW is practically already dead. LOTRo will especially shut WoW down among mmorpgers seeing how its so much like WoW except well... Better. I dont think LOTRo would ever get the mainstream attention that WoW has though, so it wont be able to take WoWs subscription numbers.
Play as your fav retro characters: cnd-online.net. My site: www.lysle.net. Blog: creatingaworld.blogspot.com.
LOTRo will especially shut WoW down among mmorpgers seeing how its so much like WoW except well... Better.
I really doubt that and LOTR being like WoW but better, are you serious? I tested LOTR from the Alpha stages and I won't say it's a bad game but it's a game that doesn't add anything new to the mmo market . I don't see WoW dying off anytime soon but I do see it losing customers slowly when something new comes out. I know one thing after testing a couple upcoming releases and currently testing some big titles that are planned to be released later this year, I must say I see WoW being at the top for a while and it seems like some of these game companies feel it's ok to do the same things over and over while calling the game a different name. I stopped playing WoW and now I'll have to wait till next year to see if anything might come out.
There is no way a game with 8.5 million subscribers, generating the revenue it does will go 'down' in less than a year.
Take a look at much smaller games like CoH or some of the first MMO's out that are still going and show no signs of having the plug pulled on them.
Subscriber numbers may have hit their peak and could start to decline and we may see some servers decommissioned in a year or so(though even that is unlikely) but to suggest any mcurrent market leading MMO could be closed down in a year is preposterous.
Having been playing LOTRO and seeing the lukewarm reception it's getting by the majority of those playing(the test guild i'm in has over 50 people and the general attitude is nice but not great), that's one of the big wow killers out of the picture, AoC is going to need top spec machines to run well so is alienating some of it's mainstream playerbase and WAR is too PvP based to entice many PvE only players.
I've seen WoW killers touted about ever since Blizz released it but they've all fallen by the way side, DDO barely got off the ground, FFXI was even more of a grindfest and shot itself in the foot, etc.
If WoW's 8 million subscribers has dropped below 7 million by the end of this year I will be hugely surprised.
CoH/CoV - D-Zol/Kinslayer
Auto Assault - Slayer
WoW, LOTRO, DDO - Kinsul
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First off let's be clear there is no WOW killer so can we FINALY put this tired subject to rest. Can we please not incite the fanatics .
The only factors that can really effect WOW is it's own complacancy & it's teen subscribers eventually requiring more of a challenge. Blizz has succeded in creating the MMO equivalent of Mcdonalds. Despite what you think of them they're not going away any time soon.
These WOW killer posts are more wishfull thinking than substance.
Dutchess Zarraa Voltayre
Reborn/Zero Sum/Ancient Legacy/Jagged Legion/Feared/Nuke & Pave.
First off let's be clear there is no WOW killer so can we FINALY put this tired subject to rest. Can we please not incite the fanatics .
The only factors that can really effect WOW is it's own complacancy & it's teen subscribers eventually requiring more of a challenge. Blizz has succeded in creating the MMO equivalent of Mcdonalds. Despite what you think of them they're not going away any time soon.
These WOW killer posts are more wishfull thinking than substance.
No other MMORPG provides with a challenge, even if Blizzards playerbase wanted to, they have nowhere else to go.You mean maybe go down some percentage of subscriptions? Maybe, who knows? WoW isn't forever. But, in my opinion, it'll have more to do with just people burning out on WoW and less to do with what is currently being offered in competition with WoW.
playing eq2 and two worlds