Number of LOTRO Subscribers?

ignisfatuus

People keep pointing to the game's licence as a guarantee of success.  Are you forgetting DDO?  Sure, you could say D & D does not have the cultural cachet of Tolkien's world, but it still has a significant following.  This alone wasn't enough to prop it up though.  Gameplay will trump setting every time. 



Seeing as how we all are guessing at the max subscriber base for LOTRO, I'll throw my prognostication in as settling between 500-750k.  This game is as deep as a puddle. 

drbaltazar

dont forget  this game is planned as the book (trilogy)so if we reach all 3 game might be very nice indead .i love the dwarf so far.they might get big we ll see after summer lol cause who in their right mind play in summer

shermon15

It seems LOTR is getting less of the leet pwn u type wow kids and more of the generations that grew up on the story.  This is not scientific in any way and purely based on what I am seeing and reading.   My guess is the former type of player will remain in WoW and then make the transition to AOC or WAR.  The later will remain in LOTR.

The 8 million figure from WoW includes Asia where LOTR has not launched yet.  I have seen 3 million NA/EU players thrown out there.  LOTR will take its share while AOC and WAR will fragment more later this year into next..  I have also noticed many of the players in my guild in LOTR did not play WoW, but came from games like EQ2, DAoC, etc. 

Who knows what the actual numbers are, but there are many people enjoying  the game and many people enjoying bashing it.

 

Wraithmire

Originally posted by iduums

"By quotes from Devs it will not feature extensive RP"



oh please show me these quotes.  From what i've read its going to be a RP dream.



Oh and btw there will be a ton of PVE content in WAR should do some research first.

show me proof that Warhammer will sale well, and that it is going to be the best game ever to be released



wait, no proof? Thats too bad...

Liddokun

I think LOTRO will easily hit 1 million users.

Hadesprime

Since launch a total of



1 new server has been opened and that was a EU server.



At the similar time frame mark for WoW it had triple the servers LOTRO had at launch and added a further 10 within the first month just for NA alone.



So when I see que's that are 15 plus minutues long and the adding of a bunch of servers than we can say the game has passed the 500K mark and is perhaps approaching the 1 million mark.



As far as concurrent caps you can optimistically say 5K max and no more than that. Realistically I would guess a definite 3500 to 4K per server concurrent max since thats WoW's mark and I bet Turbine can match that.



Either way given Turbines latest pattern of press releases I can say without a doubt that the milisecond they sell 500K copies they will be sure to announce it.



Till then I voted 200K plus.



btw I am seeing the same community patterns in LOTRO as I did in WoW. Anyone who believes this game will attract the mature and leave the kiddy types in WOW is purely delusional and not functioning at all in reality. A games community is not based on the game but rather the popularity of the game. The more popular it is the more types of players it will attract. Anyone with half a brain can see that and if you believe the kiddies are going to stay in WOW you are seriously cracked.

Svayvti

It has been 3 months and I still laugh at this thread.

CognetoJoe

warcry did a an interview and and asked the question why only so many server, is it because there arent that many player ( along those lines I can't remember the exact question) .. The response was (again my memory is vague but remember the meat of the response)"Server technologies have changed"

 

So my questimat is that each server can hold 10k-30k people per server because of the use of instancing , shop zoning and the size of the world. They can easily with the technology that is 4 years newer then WoW's server technology can hand almost 3 times more users , that is how I interpreted the statement ...

Sundiego

Servers can hold over double the amount that Warcraft used. Come on its been over 3 years server technology even now holds 3 times as many as before.

 

As for Warcraft all those figure are old and roughly based. You login now and have NO wait for the servers and some are not even half capacity. Their roleplaying servers are just about empty.

Quingu

Originally posted by Sundiego


Servers can hold over double the amount that Warcraft used. Come on its been over 3 years server technology even now holds 3 times as many as before.
 
As for Warcraft all those figure are old and roughly based. You login now and have NO wait for the servers and some are not even half capacity. Their roleplaying servers are just about empty.

lotro servers can hold about  30k to 40k subscriptions each.

Orphes

 

Originally posted by CognetoJoe


warcry did a an interview and and asked the question why only so many server, is it because there arent that many player ( along those lines I can't remember the exact question) .. The response was (again my memory is vague but remember the meat of the response)"Server technologies have changed"
 
So my questimat is that each server can hold 10k-30k people per server because of the use of instancing , shop zoning and the size of the world. They can easily with the technology that is 4 years newer then WoW's server technology can hand almost 3 times more users , that is how I interpreted the statement ...

 

I dont know... With you linking a 6 months old thread in your signature which actually is not true (today) and probably only was an error back then. Why should you be telling anything like the thruth in this matter? It only seems like you want to spin things in your favour.

As for Pinqu's figure of 30-40k people, when the server queues kicks in are there 7-10k or so people online?

Quingu

Originally posted by Orphes


 
Originally posted by CognetoJoe


warcry did a an interview and and asked the question why only so many server, is it because there arent that many player ( along those lines I can't remember the exact question) .. The response was (again my memory is vague but remember the meat of the response)"Server technologies have changed"
 
So my questimat is that each server can hold 10k-30k people per server because of the use of instancing , shop zoning and the size of the world. They can easily with the technology that is 4 years newer then WoW's server technology can hand almost 3 times more users , that is how I interpreted the statement ...

 

I dont know... With you linking a 6 months old thread in your signature which actually is not true (today) and probably only was an error back then. Why should you be telling anything like the thruth in this matter? It only seems like you want to spin things in your favour.

As for Pinqu's figure of 30-40k people, when the server queues kicks in are there 7-10k or so people online?

once i counted 4685 people online at windfola server, 2 days after patch or so.

Orphes

Originally posted by Quingu

Originally posted by Orphes


 As for Pinqu's figure of 30-40k people, when the server queues kicks in are there 7-10k or so people online?

once i counted 4685 people online at windfola server, 2 days after patch or so.

20% or was it 25% of a servers total population plays primetime, that would I guess alot more when it is a special even just like a new patch or so.

If 4685 would be a primetime population then the total pupulation on that server is 18k up to 24k. If it is a peak after a patch (you state 2 days after) well then my guess here is to high.

Was this with a server que?

 

 

matraque

Originally posted by zaxtor99


In six months, Lord of the Rings Online will reach a MINIMUM of 3 MILLION subscribers. Just watch. Laugh now. Flame now. Whatever. But wait the six months and come back and throw this in my face if I am wrong.


- Zaxx

Will do.

matraque

Originally posted by Quingu

Originally posted by Cabe2323

Originally posted by MMO2007

Originally posted by zaxtor99


In six months, Lord of the Rings Online will reach a MINIMUM of 3 MILLION subscribers. Just watch. Laugh now. Flame now. Whatever. But wait the six months and come back and throw this in my face if I am wrong.


- Zaxx

you're completely wrong because lotro has poor content. And can't fight against AOC and WAR  (that's why turbine launches it now, he has 6 months from april to october ) Lotro is cool but has the lowest content of all MMORPG's played with.



200 000 subs in april (maybe)

100 000 in 3 months

50 000 in 6 months  (Founder offer 6 months and ... cancel

- 10 000 in december (no isengard no minas tirith etc): only founder offer/for life (5000 boxes + 5000 others imo)

was in beta since december 2006 and i'm not going to subscribe not even take the standard box.

BUT my account isn't closed so turbine could say my account = 1 subscription

Lol,  This is completely rediculous.  LOTRO is a PVE game it will not compete directly with AOC or WAR.  Those games will be fighting each other for subscribers (which in my opinion WAR will win)  and also fighting WoW for subscribers.  LOTRO also has more content then WoW released with.  I forget the exact number of quests but there were more in LOTRO then in WoW.   Also, Turbine is releasing their first free content update in June.  This will add more quests, more Monster Play stuff, a whole new zone, and some more stuff. 

So anyone who thinks the game is going away is just fooling themselves.  LOTRO is going to be a major force in the MMO world.  I personally think it will end up with more subscribers then any other NA/EU MMO not named WoW.  Will it beat WoW's worldwide numbers?  Heck no.  Can it possibly beat WoW's NA/EU numbers?  Possibly.  I could see the NA servers somewhere in the 700K-1million range.  But I can see the EU servers blowing up and being over 2 Million.  The game is even more popular in Europe then here in the US. 

WOW started with 1000 quests, LOTRO started with 2100 quests, they adding 60 new quests on first content update.

Source please.  thanks!

Svayvti

A year later and this thread still delivers the laughs 

Vantras

Ay e I laugh even louder as I hear all the AOC will kill this and Warhammer is going to be amazing-sillyness being bantered about.

Warhammer slides ever further down the release calendar.  And AOC is currently being measured for its "I am Vanguard superhero costume"....funny how its always the next release which is going to kill the current ones.....

Now threads are starting to shift toward AION and Spellborn...and we spin ever on with the circle of life.

Lotro might not have hit 1 mill subs but its the best release weve seen in several years and by every measure short of comparing it to WOW is one of the most successful MMO's on the market.

Cabe2323

Originally posted by Svayvti


A year later and this thread still delivers the laughs 

Well according to NPD LOTRO is the third largest subscriber MMO in NA. (Source is in the news section of this site,  in the article about 1 billion subscription dollars)  Only Runescape and WoW has more subscribers.  LOTRO beats games like DAoC, FFXI, EQ2, EQ1, CoH, etc. 

 

So I think the naysayers are kind of off on their numbers.  I would guess the game has closer to 400K then to 100K subscribers. 

Jackdog

I can tell you exactly how many are on the Silverlode  Server.....ready. Enough. That's how many.

Enough level 50's so I can play my minstrel and always find a group night or day, enough level 20 to 30 's so I can easily fing groups for my LM and enough 20 and below for my other alts to be able to group. Enough to make the auction house viable and populate all of the various lvl areas.

WSIMike

- looks at thread start date -

- looks at current date -

Okay.. everyone sing along...

"Let's do the time warp again!"

How many pages back did someone have to go to dig up this fossil of a thread?

In general, I agree with Jackdog's assessment.. It has enough players... at all level ranges.

Pathis

 

---

So I think the naysayers are kind of off on their numbers. I would guess the game has closer to 400K then to 100K subscribers.

---

  

Well if it is beating FFXI then it probably has over 500k subs. I'm guessing not by much, probably in the 550-650k range unless it somehow took off in Japan (I'm only familiar with US/Europe populations). It's definitely not near the Runescape 1-1.2 Million range. They would have milked that publicity if it was.

Then again, they are aggressively targeting the Asian market so maybe we could see that number before the year is up.

IKShadow

www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html

p.s. Dont know how accurate those charts are but I dont think they are far off.

Pathis

I would rather take the NPD's word on the issue over MMOGChart.  No offense to mmogchart but it's very clear that NPD has the resources and industry respect to get a clearer answer.  MMOGChart is mostly educated guesses. 

Right now the NPD has LOTRO as #3 under Runescape and above FFXI.  Press releases (the same info MMOGCHART uses) has FFXI at 500k subs and Runescape at slightly above 1M subs.  MMOGCHART has LOTRO at 150k subs.  Something doesn't match. 

Now it's still all guesses on our part because unless you purchase the report you can't get exact numbers.  So we will have to wait until that number is released to see if it is closer to FFXI or closer to Runescape.  I'm still guessing it's a bit higher than 500k subs but it would be nice if we were pleasantly surprised.

openedge1

 

Originally posted by Pathis


I would rather take the NPD's word on the issue over MMOGChart.  No offense to mmogchart but it's very clear that NPD has the resources and industry respect to get a clearer answer.  MMOGChart is mostly educated guesses. 
Right now the NPD has LOTRO as #3 under Runescape and above FFXI.  Press releases (the same info MMOGCHART uses) has FFXI at 500k subs and Runescape at slightly above 1M subs.  MMOGCHART has LOTRO at 150k subs.  Something doesn't match. 
Now it's still all guesses on our part because unless you purchase the report you can't get exact numbers.  So we will have to wait until that number is released to see if it is closer to FFXI or closer to Runescape.  I'm still guessing it's a bit higher than 500k subs but it would be nice if we were pleasantly surprised.

We have to note...the NPD numbers are US based scrips only..

 

A statement was made that 11 million people play online in the US in the NPD press release

Now, subtract 4 million right off the bat for WoW (actual quoted numbers)

Now we are down to 7 million.

7 Million also includes browser based games as well as MMO based games...

Now...take into account services like...

Pogo.com...which can garner 9 million unique visitors a day, now break that down into how many may actually be subscribed...even at 10% that is still 900,000...so close to a million just for that site alone...

Now lets say Runescape even at say 50% (as they mainly are based in the US and Germany) having 500,000..

As to the FFXI "press release" this is actually stated on their "census" page, and several sites have noted that the 500k notation has been there going on 3-4 years...AND, that includes US and Japanese audiences...so, maybe take 300,000 off (as we know more play in Japan...no if's ands or buts)

I think it has to be between 200-300k...or the actual number needed to make a profit according to industry standards at this time...

This is still good, and above original notations by MMOGChart...but, who has gone on record as stating he thinks it is closer to 200-300k also...

And note we are not even counting European numbers or the upcoming Korean and Chinese market...

LOTRO will be around a long time...

FikusOfAhazi

NDP is only NA and it doesnt give actual sub numbers if i understand it correctly. LOTRO has more than eq2 and less than eve putting it around 200k for a best guess using turbines claim that its the number 2 mmo made in NA, Runescape probably doesnt count, nor should it IMO. 200k is the best guess unless Turbine wants to tell us. No one else knows, not even NDP. So can we move on?..there are threads all over AOC forums full of the same hype that caused threads like these for everyone to make predictions now.