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ZooomgZooomg Member Posts: 84
in Vanguard: Saga of Heroes
Check out this chart:  http://www.mmogdata.com/?q=node/15



Most games have at least one or two quarters of growth before heading downwards gently.  There is one game that bucks this trend (and head straight down).  Guess which one is that? 
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Comments

  • dendeadendea Member Posts: 110

    Wow thats one step drop..... The game wasnt that great, but i thought it would of done better then that.

    I really hope the game stays up for those people that truely enjoy the game.

    If only i could find a troll with a tin foil hat. =(

  • AmatheAmathe Member LegendaryPosts: 7,630
    If I kicked a rock off of a tall building, it would graph better than this game's retention/sales figures.

    EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests

  • AZAlex86AZAlex86 Member UncommonPosts: 158
    90% of those people quitting probably played the game for 8 minutes. Or at least attempted to...



    Installed it, and entered the game only to find that their computer didn't allow them to walk outside of the city gates...only if they had an 8.4 GHz octo-core processor with 512 GB of RAM.



    Gotta hate MMO return policies too.
  • UrdigUrdig Member Posts: 1,260

    Welcome to MMOGData.com!

    So what’s this all about then? Well lots of people have used the awesome www.mmogchart.com for information on the MMOG market which was created and maintained by SirBruce for many years, however since 2006 SirBruce has not updated the site.

    I thought this was a great shame and I have tried to contact SirBruce many times over the last 2 months to see if I could take over the site and maintain the data, I emailed, put posts on forums, even phone calls and contacted other people within the industry but just could not get hold of SirBruce so I have decided to create a new site (http://www.mmogdata.com) and continue his work.

    I cannot stress that I would much prefer SirBruce to get into touch and we work together on this and that I am using the data as at 20th May 2007 to form the basis of www.mmogdata.com

    What’s been done so far …

    - Registered www.mmogdata.com

    - Taken SirBruce’s data and increased the number of tracked, Western, MMO games to 129.

    - Started to update subscriber numbers (need more data for this).

    - Added a new worksheet listing (by MMOG).

    --- Revenue model (F2P, P2P, B2P).

    --- Type (Client or browser based).

    --- Genre.

    --- Does it have an item mall (typically F2P games only).

    --- Does it have advertisments (typically F2P games only).

    --- Does it have a premium pack (typically F2P games only).

    --- What is the monthly subscription cost (typically P2P games only).

    What’s to do?

    - Obtain as accurate subscriber / accounts details for each game from June06 onwards.

    - Complete the new worksheet listings.

    - Create graphs and breakdowns.

    How can you help - well if you have any information on the number of subscribers / accounts for any MMOG then please drop me an email phil@psfei.co.uk. It would be good to understand how you got the information but this will be kept confidential. Likewise if you know how I can contact SirBruce then email me as well.

    ...................................................................

    The information is based off a site wich is well known to be wrong.

    The creator of this site can't get SirBruce to work with him; he's tried for 2 months.  Could this be because SirBruce stopped updating his site because he wasn't providing acurate information?

    The highlighted part is were the site gets it's information.

    The site has no accurate means of tracking subs because the site owner doesn't get the information from the publishers of the games themselves. 

     

    Wish Darkfall would release.

  • iffymackiffymack Member Posts: 376
    shocking
  • FischerBlackFischerBlack Member Posts: 573
    No doubt that VG's subs started out mediocre and then fell dramatically, but I have serious questions about the validity of the information presented on that site. As Urdig pointed out, those data points are site admin's best guess of sub numbers based off rumours/emails, except where companies release official sub numbers. The VG numbers are probably somewhere in the right ballpark, but by no means are they official.
  • Gules_AspenGules_Aspen Member Posts: 273
    Well....players- people who LIKE the game- over at SV have reported populations repeatedly. None have been over 1000 on any given server in a long time, a few are now around 850 and many at 5-600 during prime time. Let's be generous and say th eaverage server has 750 during prime time. 13 servers makes for 9750 concurrent players. Industry wisdom, taken as truth by pretty much everyone, is that 20-25% of your subscribers are logged in at any given time. With a game appealing to a tiny, tiny niche like Vanguard does, I'd guess it's closer to 30-35%, but again....I'm willing to be generous and go with only 20%. Sooooo....that gives us an industry-accepted estimate of (drumroll, anyone?) 48,750 paying subs.



    Chart looks pretty accurate to me. I'd make a guess that 30-35,000 is closer to truth, but either way, a remarkable failure in every way.

    Bite me, Turbine.

  • ZooomgZooomg Member Posts: 84
    Originally posted by Gules_Aspen

    Well....players- people who LIKE the game- over at SV have reported populations repeatedly. None have been over 1000 on any given server in a long time, a few are now around 850 and many at 5-600 during prime time. Let's be generous and say th eaverage server has 750 during prime time. 13 servers makes for 9750 concurrent players. Industry wisdom, taken as truth by pretty much everyone, is that 20-25% of your subscribers are logged in at any given time. With a game appealing to a tiny, tiny niche like Vanguard does, I'd guess it's closer to 30-35%, but again....I'm willing to be generous and go with only 20%. Sooooo....that gives us an industry-accepted estimate of (drumroll, anyone?) 48,750 paying subs.



    Chart looks pretty accurate to me. I'd make a guess that 30-35,000 is closer to truth, but either way, a remarkable failure in every way.


    WoW Budget (from what I hear) - 75M

    Vanguard Budget - 30M



    WoW Population - 8M+

    Vanguard Population - 50K (let's be even more generous)



    How anyone could think VG is anything but a total failure right now is beyond me lol.


  • QBorgQBorg Member Posts: 64
    All is not yet lost. They still have enough subscribers to pay the electricity bill for one merged server. I dont think there will be enough money for big content updates though.
  • PandraxPandrax Member UncommonPosts: 341
    Originally posted by Zooomg

    Check out this chart:  http://www.mmogdata.com/?q=node/15



    Most games have at least one or two quarters of growth before heading downwards gently.  There is one game that bucks this trend (and head straight down).  Guess which one is that? 

     

    I'm not going to click that link or even read this thread and I'm almost100% sure the game you're refering to is Vanguard.. Such a shame. It was great on paper. I hope they can turn it around and make a game worthy of playing soon.

    ~ ~

    Had I the heavens' embroidered cloths, Enwrought with golden and silver light, The blue and the dim and the dark cloths Of night and light and the half light, I would spread the cloths under your feet: But I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.

  • EnigmaEnigma Member UncommonPosts: 11,384

    wow

    Vanguard went from 200K to about 39K in 4 months. Ouchie

    People who have to create conspiracy and hate threads to further a cause lacks in intellectual comprehension of diversity.

  • ZooomgZooomg Member Posts: 84
    40,000 x USD 15 / month is still a respectable 600K a month.  Even if you add in developer salary and electricity bills, it is still decent to keep things going MINIMALLY.  I don't think they can afford to lose much more though.  Unfortunately it might be out of their control now and will be worse come end of year.
  • SWGLoverSWGLover Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 539

    So how long will it take to break even on a dev cost of 35ish million? This game will have to run, what, five years just to break even ( not counting monthly expenses such as salary, server fees, etc. ) ?

     

    Ouchie indeed.   

     

     

  • Greyhawk4x4Greyhawk4x4 Member UncommonPosts: 480
    I hope they can turn things around for the sake of those who enjoy it and have invested their time into building characters.
    https://www.youtube.com/user/Greyhawk4x4
  • seabass2003seabass2003 Member Posts: 4,144

    Originally posted by Zooomg

    Check out this chart:  http://www.mmogdata.com/?q=node/15





    Most games have at least one or two quarters of growth before heading downwards gently.  There is one game that bucks this trend (and head straight down).  Guess which one is that? 

    Sorry I am in the wrong place.

    In America I have bad teeth. If I lived in England my teeth would be perfect.

  • UrdigUrdig Member Posts: 1,260
    Originally posted by Zooomg

    Originally posted by Gules_Aspen

    Well....players- people who LIKE the game- over at SV have reported populations repeatedly. None have been over 1000 on any given server in a long time, a few are now around 850 and many at 5-600 during prime time. Let's be generous and say th eaverage server has 750 during prime time. 13 servers makes for 9750 concurrent players. Industry wisdom, taken as truth by pretty much everyone, is that 20-25% of your subscribers are logged in at any given time. With a game appealing to a tiny, tiny niche like Vanguard does, I'd guess it's closer to 30-35%, but again....I'm willing to be generous and go with only 20%. Sooooo....that gives us an industry-accepted estimate of (drumroll, anyone?) 48,750 paying subs.



    Chart looks pretty accurate to me. I'd make a guess that 30-35,000 is closer to truth, but either way, a remarkable failure in every way.


    WoW Budget (from what I hear) - 75M

    Vanguard Budget - 30M



    WoW Population - 8M+

    Vanguard Population - 50K (let's be even more generous)



    How anyone could think VG is anything but a total failure right now is beyond me lol.



    WoW's budget was 63 or 65 mil.

    Wish Darkfall would release.

  • Chilly_WaterChilly_Water Member Posts: 24
    Originally posted by Urdig

    Originally posted by Zooomg

    Originally posted by Gules_Aspen

    Well....players- people who LIKE the game- over at SV have reported populations repeatedly. None have been over 1000 on any given server in a long time, a few are now around 850 and many at 5-600 during prime time. Let's be generous and say th eaverage server has 750 during prime time. 13 servers makes for 9750 concurrent players. Industry wisdom, taken as truth by pretty much everyone, is that 20-25% of your subscribers are logged in at any given time. With a game appealing to a tiny, tiny niche like Vanguard does, I'd guess it's closer to 30-35%, but again....I'm willing to be generous and go with only 20%. Sooooo....that gives us an industry-accepted estimate of (drumroll, anyone?) 48,750 paying subs.



    Chart looks pretty accurate to me. I'd make a guess that 30-35,000 is closer to truth, but either way, a remarkable failure in every way.


    WoW Budget (from what I hear) - 75M

    Vanguard Budget - 30M



    WoW Population - 8M+

    Vanguard Population - 50K (let's be even more generous)



    How anyone could think VG is anything but a total failure right now is beyond me lol.



    WoW's budget was 63 or 65 mil.



    VG's was much closer to 40.
  • GooneyGooney Member Posts: 194
    Just for a bit of perspective:



    30,000,000 dollars in 1945 dollars is about 2,700,000 which is enough to have purchased 55 P51 Mustangs.



    Of course today its only enough to buy 2 AH64 apache attack helicopters ... heh.



    Ive heard wildly different estimates on WoWs dev cost, but my guess is that to get Vanguard into a "fun"  state<<--objectivity warning, they will have to spend probably about 10million more, and maybe a million in adverts.  Nah, I think SOE picked up VG for a song and will milk it with MINIMAL investment until it quietly drags itself off in the corner and dies..



    Alternately, because SOE probably did pick VG up for a song, they could saftely invest a couple million to optimize it and do a relaunch in the fall, which may be thier plan.  But I doubt it, safe bet is minimal investment, cosmetic change, low grade support and adverts.  Just my guess, SOE wins either way.



    -Gooney
  • RenessaRenessa Member Posts: 79

    Does this count the SOE Station Access Accounts (not a hundred percent sure of the name)?  

    Because I got one for Vanguard (had been playing EQ2), and though I am back with EQ2, I'm still keeping the expensive account, because of other perks (more char slots for EQ2 etc.) and the hope, VG might be turned around. So, for Sony it was a good deal. Normally I would not have upgraded. 

  • MalakaiMalakai Member Posts: 147

    ....

    image
    Which Final Fantasy Character Are You?
    Final Fantasy 7

  • snipergsniperg Member Posts: 863
    Intersting to say the least that the whole charts are made from the contribution of other "players".

    So pretty much any Tom, Dick and Harry with a computer bought from the local K mart can send accurate info so we all other gamers know what to expect.

    But hey at least it has nice charts so we can have something to look into

    A friend is not him who provides support during your failures.A friend is the one that cheers you during your successes.

  • matraquematraque Member Posts: 1,431
    Originally posted by Zooomg

    Check out this chart:  http://www.mmogdata.com/?q=node/15



    Most games have at least one or two quarters of growth before heading downwards gently.  There is one game that bucks this trend (and head straight down).  Guess which one is that? 
    Listen, i'm having fun.  WHy do you care?

    eqnext.wikia.com

  • iffymackiffymack Member Posts: 376

    he gets the data from a number of sources;

    5. Where do you get your numbers?

    The numbers come from a variety of sources, and some games have more than one source. These sources include press releases, direct data from the developers, company investor documents, news articles, public comments and anonymous sources.

    not just compiled from random people.

     

     

  • ZooomgZooomg Member Posts: 84
    Originally posted by matraque

    Originally posted by Zooomg

    Check out this chart:  http://www.mmogdata.com/?q=node/15



    Most games have at least one or two quarters of growth before heading downwards gently.  There is one game that bucks this trend (and head straight down).  Guess which one is that? 
    Listen, i'm having fun.  WHy do you care?

    You are 1 out 5 who bought the game still left in game after 4 months.  If you still enjoy the game, good for you lol...
  • MaldachMaldach Member Posts: 399

    Damn, that's a swift kick in the nuts. SWG and DDO both have wrist-slitting declines, but not of the near vertical perfection that Brad McQuaid managed to perfect. I guess having one, yes, count 'em one, QA person will do that to you. In defense of McQuaid, he did expect to use Microsoft's QA department instead of his own. But, once the MS deal fell through, wouldn't think to hire your own damn QA department?????

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