My concern here is for the viability of this industry at a time when I see massive discontent about massive multiplayer in general. I think that we here are not the ones who have a problem with P2P, because we all P2P right now. Suffice it to say though that most players of computer entertainment don't play MMOs, and nobody has really considered why they aren't. Not only that, but I'm not so sure anymore that this industry is going to grow like it has in the last few years. If you look at MMOGdata, subs are declining after a big period of growth due to WoW. Whether or not it will start to grow again remains to be seen, but I don't think the sort of scams, buggy launches, and the like really encourage growth, especially among those 55% of people in Perpetual's poll who say subscription based MMOs are too expensive. ...
But let's get real here people. MMOs have to compete with MySpace, phones, and single player games with some online capability. What is the industry going to do to encourage consumers to play their products when there are so many others out there that are entertaining without all of the problems I describe in #1-#3?
You're reading the chart(s) incorrectly. There are more MMO players than ever. Other games dipped in subs because WoW drew in quite a few from other games, but WoW still managed to accrue over 6 million subs before BC launched. There's no data tracking who came from what game, but if you look at the total subs before WoW's release (11/04), you'll see there were only 6 million total subs. Even then, the market was still growing gradually.
Things aren't as bad as they seem. The health of the industry will more or less be determined by the next generation of MMOs, but for the moment (and forseeable future) things will remain intact. I think WoW's success will propel more money into the business, but flops like Vanguard will keep investors at bay. The fallout from WoW's expansion might worry some people, but it may also be expected behavior. Historically, and rather ironically, expansions have eaten MMOs alive.
Also, your comparison points are wrong. Comparing MMOGs to myspace and phones is out of scope. With comparison to single/multi player games, there's also a technology difference. The tech difference makes the game experience unique. I wouldn't even place the two in the same market.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz] AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
Good post and I can pretty much agree with you except for one line:
"I see the cases of Mourning, Dark and Light, and Horizons as the rule, rather than the exception. "
Horizons is a different case, and falls more into the SWG Corporate Mismanagement class than Mourning and D&L, which are just bad games or vaporware. Horizons is a very good game that's just had the misfortune of being in the hands of some REALLY bad companies. Had it been a NCSoft or NetDevil product, or even EA, the Horizons story would have been totally different. Might want to substitute Vanguard for Horizons in your arguement.
The MMO P2P industry WILL implode eventually, but a major contributing factor will be the sameness of all the offerrings. There's only so many times you can pay to level a toon exactly the same way. When was the last time you actually had to take some time to LEARN a new MMO? I've recently started DAoC, Lineage II and LotRO and have been into the action almost immediately. Now, this might be a good thing, but I'm not getting that feeling I got from my EnB->UO->SWG->Horizons->EVE->AO progression, where I could get into each new game with that "Gee, this is cool!" feeling for at least a couple of months. It's very reminiscent of the heyday of RTS, where there seemed to be a new RTS out every month, with the Harvest/build/tank-rush mechanics the same but the colors and names changed. And now there aren't too many new RTSs coming out. Folks include titles like C&C3, Dawn of War and Supreme Commander as examples that RTS is still alive and kicking, but DoW was 2004. And, if I've got my C&Cs right (1=C&C, 2=Red Alert, 3=Tiberian Sun? Or did I miss one?) Tiberian Sun was 1999! So really only SC is "new". Is this a bad thing? Not at all. They're quality RTS games, and I think it's good that the fast-buck garbage isn't out there anymore. I'm sure Starcraft 2 will be to Starcraft what Warcraft 3 was to WC2. A good sequel. But, let's face it, WC3 didn't have nearly the popularity of WC2 which -- though I presonally preferred TA as my favorite RTS -- was the Biggest Hitter of RTS. (Interesting, eh? WC2 and WoW...RTS and MMO biggest hits. )
But in this we can see progression and hope too. THere's always something that will come along and shatter the gaming mold to bring us a new genre. SOMEBODY will be the next Gary Gygax, Ken & Roberta Williams, Sid Meier, Will Wright, Richard Garriot. There will ALWAYS be an innovator out there who will eventually rise to the top and give us our next big thrill. I just wish he/she would hurry up already!
-- Xix "I know what you're thinking: 'Why, oh WHY, didn't I take the BLUE pill?'"
Lets look at it from a player/consumer perspective and rationale. I started playing MMO basically when the Internet came of age. I started with a game on www.zone.com called Fighter Ace then Fighter Ace 2.. This was a MMO only WW2 combat fighter aircraft simulation. I played it for over 3 years. Online community, player vs player environment, events, competition, fun, fun. I got tired of that game and my next adventure was Dark Ages of Camelot which i played 3 years moving on to WOW for 2 years and well now I'm back playing DAOC until WAR is released. Was i excited about coming back to play DAOC after being away 2 years. Yes simply because its the best of its kind on the market.
Now Pay to Play. This is very cost efficient entertainment. If i am not playing a sub based game i spend over 200 bucks a month buying and finishing single player games. So 15 bucks vs 200.. It's a no brainier. I see the value as do game companies. All this costs money. Is P2P ever gonna go away? No .. P2P games are far superior in every way to for example games like Guild Wars. Yes GW is a nice game thats non sub based play. It is obvious to me as a entire package all around that everything feels tightly budgeted from graphic o the simplicity of the game itself.
Now onto content.. Much like modern American entertainment that's lost all its creativity and individuality. Just look at the recent movies. Retreads of old hit movies running rampant... Yeah some of them are decent but i find it lame that creative minds can't come up with something to amuse us all instead of falling back on remakes. How does what i just said here play into it all. Well I've played dang near every MMO out there. There is a huge lack of creativity and more of a power lean towards cloning. When wow was released it wasn't revolutionary in fact it only had a few nice things that DAOC lacked for example. Generally speaking in a DnD based theme, WOW was just another EQ, DAOC clone with a little different flavor but its still basically the same when it comes down to it.
P2P is here to stay. As long as its under 20 bucks a month. Hey you can't find that much entertainment for such a low price anywhere.
Comments
Things aren't as bad as they seem. The health of the industry will more or less be determined by the next generation of MMOs, but for the moment (and forseeable future) things will remain intact. I think WoW's success will propel more money into the business, but flops like Vanguard will keep investors at bay. The fallout from WoW's expansion might worry some people, but it may also be expected behavior. Historically, and rather ironically, expansions have eaten MMOs alive.
Also, your comparison points are wrong. Comparing MMOGs to myspace and phones is out of scope. With comparison to single/multi player games, there's also a technology difference. The tech difference makes the game experience unique. I wouldn't even place the two in the same market.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
Good post and I can pretty much agree with you except for one line:
"I see the cases of Mourning, Dark and Light, and Horizons as the rule, rather than the exception. "
Horizons is a different case, and falls more into the SWG Corporate Mismanagement class than Mourning and D&L, which are just bad games or vaporware. Horizons is a very good game that's just had the misfortune of being in the hands of some REALLY bad companies. Had it been a NCSoft or NetDevil product, or even EA, the Horizons story would have been totally different. Might want to substitute Vanguard for Horizons in your arguement.
The MMO P2P industry WILL implode eventually, but a major contributing factor will be the sameness of all the offerrings. There's only so many times you can pay to level a toon exactly the same way. When was the last time you actually had to take some time to LEARN a new MMO? I've recently started DAoC, Lineage II and LotRO and have been into the action almost immediately. Now, this might be a good thing, but I'm not getting that feeling I got from my EnB->UO->SWG->Horizons->EVE->AO progression, where I could get into each new game with that "Gee, this is cool!" feeling for at least a couple of months. It's very reminiscent of the heyday of RTS, where there seemed to be a new RTS out every month, with the Harvest/build/tank-rush mechanics the same but the colors and names changed. And now there aren't too many new RTSs coming out. Folks include titles like C&C3, Dawn of War and Supreme Commander as examples that RTS is still alive and kicking, but DoW was 2004. And, if I've got my C&Cs right (1=C&C, 2=Red Alert, 3=Tiberian Sun? Or did I miss one?) Tiberian Sun was 1999! So really only SC is "new". Is this a bad thing? Not at all. They're quality RTS games, and I think it's good that the fast-buck garbage isn't out there anymore. I'm sure Starcraft 2 will be to Starcraft what Warcraft 3 was to WC2. A good sequel. But, let's face it, WC3 didn't have nearly the popularity of WC2 which -- though I presonally preferred TA as my favorite RTS -- was the Biggest Hitter of RTS. (Interesting, eh? WC2 and WoW...RTS and MMO biggest hits.
)
But in this we can see progression and hope too. THere's always something that will come along and shatter the gaming mold to bring us a new genre. SOMEBODY will be the next Gary Gygax, Ken & Roberta Williams, Sid Meier, Will Wright, Richard Garriot. There will ALWAYS be an innovator out there who will eventually rise to the top and give us our next big thrill. I just wish he/she would hurry up already!
-- Xix
"I know what you're thinking: 'Why, oh WHY, didn't I take the BLUE pill?'"
Lets look at it from a player/consumer perspective and rationale. I started playing MMO basically when the Internet came of age. I started with a game on www.zone.com called Fighter Ace then Fighter Ace 2.. This was a MMO only WW2 combat fighter aircraft simulation. I played it for over 3 years. Online community, player vs player environment, events, competition, fun, fun. I got tired of that game and my next adventure was Dark Ages of Camelot which i played 3 years moving on to WOW for 2 years and well now I'm back playing DAOC until WAR is released. Was i excited about coming back to play DAOC after being away 2 years. Yes simply because its the best of its kind on the market.
Now Pay to Play. This is very cost efficient entertainment. If i am not playing a sub based game i spend over 200 bucks a month buying and finishing single player games. So 15 bucks vs 200.. It's a no brainier. I see the value as do game companies. All this costs money. Is P2P ever gonna go away? No .. P2P games are far superior in every way to for example games like Guild Wars. Yes GW is a nice game thats non sub based play. It is obvious to me as a entire package all around that everything feels tightly budgeted from graphic o the simplicity of the game itself.
Now onto content.. Much like modern American entertainment that's lost all its creativity and individuality. Just look at the recent movies. Retreads of old hit movies running rampant... Yeah some of them are decent but i find it lame that creative minds can't come up with something to amuse us all instead of falling back on remakes. How does what i just said here play into it all. Well I've played dang near every MMO out there. There is a huge lack of creativity and more of a power lean towards cloning. When wow was released it wasn't revolutionary in fact it only had a few nice things that DAOC lacked for example. Generally speaking in a DnD based theme, WOW was just another EQ, DAOC clone with a little different flavor but its still basically the same when it comes down to it.
P2P is here to stay. As long as its under 20 bucks a month. Hey you can't find that much entertainment for such a low price anywhere.