Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
How many players will AoC have one year after release? (POLL)
Kimono
Member Posts: 19
How big do you think Age of Conan will be one year after release? Personally I'd be happy to see 500K dedicated players.
Comments
I'm really beginning to believe that this market is all-or-nothing, at least with the approach the current batch of developers are taking.
IMO, one year after release, AoC will have either half the market, or half of nothing. It's really impossible to say which until the game releases, but I'm pretty certain it will be one or the other.
Here is a choice that you forgot to include.
"No body knows because the game is still in beta"
If you had that choice, it would be my pick.
A man dies daily, only to be reborn in the morning, bigger, better and wiser.
-Playing AoC
-Playing WoW
-Retired- SWG
-Retired- EVE
-Retired- LotR
Computer (- Phenom 9600 Black Edition @ 2.81 Ghz (Quad Core CPU)- Gigabyte MA790FX-DS5 - 4 Gigs of PC 8500 ram (1066)- EVGA GeForce 8800 GTS PCI Express 2.0 - WD 500GB 7500RPM - Zalman CPU cooler (air cooled)
- 24" Widescreen 1080P HD display).
Ask again once most of us have had chance to beta test this.
Untill then it's all speculation.
I'm willing to bet the people who voted 'The next Vanguard' either:
- Are basing their opinion based solely on what they have seen on recent gameplay videos;
- Are WoW zealots; or
- Warhammer Online fanboys that have done nothing but vote AoC 1/10 on the hype-meter just because they don't want to see their precious game anywhere else but first on the ranks.
Pathetic, really.
Cheers!
MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S
They seem to have a lot in common with the AoC fanboys that vote 1/10 on the WAR polls. Would you agree those people are equally as pathetic?
If the game releases as advertised it will be the next EQ II and have 350,000 US Subscribers .... now I know WoW has blessed the MMO american market by bringing so many players in so as opposed to 2004 so a stable good as advertised mmo will at least have 300k which is good. I remember when I played EQ II and there were people every where. Now if 10 of the 19+ mmo's come out as advertised ..... There really will be no telling we have Sci-Fi, Fantasy, Conquest of the Americas... all different brands of MMO's i'm looking forward to the active communities though.
Games Enjoyed: UO,EQ,AC,EQ2,COX,LOTRO
Games Played(-Above):WoW,MXO,GW(beta),RFO,ArchLord,V:SOH,Rappelz,Ryzom,DDO
Games I felt were a rip-off: DDO,ArchLord,V:SOH - all newer how ironic
it will have all the mature gamers population because its rated m and its different from all the other mmo's out there. yes there will be a few kiddies here and there because of careless parents but hopefully they dont act immature.
They seem to have a lot in common with the AoC fanboys that vote 1/10 on the WAR polls. Would you agree those people are equally as pathetic?
Every body that votes low on a game, electronic, movie, election canidate, All Star ballad ... W/e it might be any time you vote low simply because your biast and hate the idea of it regardless to what the facts are your ignorant, childish, self absorbed and need to be shot ... IE bush's never dying wish to stay at war regardless to everyone in the white house saying it's time to stop.
Games Enjoyed: UO,EQ,AC,EQ2,COX,LOTRO
Games Played(-Above):WoW,MXO,GW(beta),RFO,ArchLord,V:SOH,Rappelz,Ryzom,DDO
Games I felt were a rip-off: DDO,ArchLord,V:SOH - all newer how ironic
As long as the hate is distributed equally based on *behavior* and not *side*... im happy
I can't say I've ever done that myself, to be honest. Warhammer Online does not interest me in the slightest, so I haven't given it a vote, not even a '1'. If a game doesn't interest you, it's probably better just to do the same: don't place a vote.
i dont know how much is going to sell we need to play the beta to see how good this game is
http://crazi-ville.myminicity.com/
anything over 50k of active subscribers in the mmo business is considered great. WoW became so popular that practically every country in the world is playing it which is why they have hundreds of servers filled with people. A average doesn't need that many servers and can still be a huge profit.
In reality the game will probaly have 100-200k after a year if the game becomes somewhat popular, it would take at least 3-4 years to kill WoW if the game is of better quality and can generate global interest.
Honestly i watch the recent videos from IGN, i understand the game is still in early beta stages but i must admit that i wasn't impressed at all with the combat system, it doesn't look like what was promised or maybe it is what was promised but just not as entertaining as it was described.
Just curious on where you are coming up with your...ummm..."original" math.
50k is a success huh? How are you judging that? If Company A spends 35 million and only garners 50k subscribers you'd call them successful? If Company B spends 12 million and only has 50k subscribers they are succesful?
Are you just looking at subscribers and completely leaving out all other costs?
I'd say it depends if they sell it in China or not. I believe most suscribers for WoW right now are S.E. Asia
I can't say I've ever done that myself, to be honest. Warhammer Online does not interest me in the slightest, so I haven't given it a vote, not even a '1'. If a game doesn't interest you, it's probably better just to do the same: don't place a vote.
If it doesn't interest you why do give it attention then?
I think RYL tried this already, they're doing ok from what I hear, so AoC will at least get their 200-300k(supposed to be what RYL is at), but then again, RYL is also a free game. Since to most people it's something really new it's hard to say how it's going to go.
If they can deliver on the promised gameplay for this game at release it has the most potential of any game on the horizon for at least the next year or two to knock out wow
I'm thinking it's all speculation anyways, until we're actually there no?
Of course it is, but everyone is just dying lookin' for something to talk about, hopefully the period between E3 and Leipzig will give us plenty to discuss.
Look at the last 2 AAA budget type releases, Vanguard and Lord of the Rings Online.
VG sold 200k copies (at least this is what Sigil reported) and the went right into the tank as far as sub's went. People KNEW that things were wrong with VG, it was receiving bad press even before it released, and it in essence went head to head with the WoW expansion.
LoTRO had what, 650k pre-orders? I doubt that at least some were picked up, simply because people were comfortable with paying $5 to play during the last stage of beta and decide if they wanted to play the game. With other people picking it up, figure 450k to 550k ended up playing early on? Not saying all of those stayed past the first month either! I'm also not claming I know either, just trying to reasonably ballpark it.
I dont think that Conan has the same fanbase that LoTRO had going into the game, but it's also going to attract people who sense that this is not a rehash of the 2nd generation MMO, but perhaps the first of the newer breed which are trying to push the genre forward. Considering where VG was, I think a lot would depend on the press it receives during beta, and what testers tell their friends. It would not surprise me to see 300k to 400k initial orders, and 500k at the end of a year would be reasonable, especially with the extra 30 million they got for the game. I'd wager they'll need revenues of 250k subs at the min.
Entire discussion is academic though, if Funcom makes AoC a quality product it'll do extremely well, if it's not high quality, then it'll really suffer. Guess we'll have to see come October 30th.
mature rated = boobs. + 1,5 million
has to compete with Warhammer after a few months -500k
So I think about 1 mill after a year
WoW had 5 mill after a year though, Warhammer and AoC probably the same combined after a year.
Conan fanbase pregame announcement has to be almost 0
at least nowhere near WAR and certainly not close to LOTR. No point going into depth here ofc since it's all speculation, and others have speculated better then me 
My gut feeling tells me AoC will sell around 500k, WAR somewhere around 1mil.
I dont think the numbers will rise annywhere above 200.000 subscribers in the first few years. You must remember that this is a next-gen mmorpg and it requires a rather powerfull machine to run it properly without anny hitching. The overwhelming majority of gamers simply aren't lucky anough to own a high-end rig that could run this game smoothly. Check out the steam hardware survey:
http://www.steampowered.com/status/survey.html
Only 0.34% have more then 2 gig's of ram
only 11.26% are over the 3.0 Ghz cpu speed (intel) and 6.46% over 2.3 Ghz with AMD.
And considering the fact that we are talking about mmorpg's here, i havent even taken client side lag into consideration.
As a matter of fact, i think world of warcraft did só good because of the low system specifications it needed. So i wouldn't be so sure about lot's of wow players swapping over to AOC. I can already hear the the crowds with the medium-specced pc's screaming bloody murder about the so called "bad performance" of AOC when it gets released.
Annyway, for what it's worth... those are my two cents. Please don't flame the crap out of me >.<