But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO.
But you do realize, that a game can still be running and be considered in the "dead" category right? I'd have to classify most of the older MMO's out there today have lost of a large percentage of their population (say 90%) and for all purposes, are strictly running on life support.
Sure, they may turn enough of a profit to keep running....but are largely forgotten in light of all the new games being released (heck, even some of the new games can't gain any of the spotlight)
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO.
But you do realize, that a game can still be running and be considered in the "dead" category right? I'd have to classify most of the older MMO's out there today have lost of a large percentage of their population (say 90%) and for all purposes, are strictly running on life support.
Sure, they may turn enough of a profit to keep running....but are largely forgotten in light of all the new games being released (heck, even some of the new games can't gain any of the spotlight)
Perfect examples...AC2 (finally died)...and now Vanguard (on it's way)...(lol)
I think I noted before though...LOTRO will live on license. I have one friend who buys everything LOTR...from the Xbox games to the RTS's...he paid the lifetime for LOTRO but said he got bored, and quit at....level 35...lol...
But, it was bought, and paid for the lifetime...so, any life timer has already paid Turbine to stay up and running at least up to 2 years...counting sales and overall scrips..(just an impression)...also, this is not to say 2 years will be the end...just we KNOW 2 years should be good for Turbine
In a year I expect that LOTRO will be bigger and more fleshed out, and it's population will be stable or slightly decreasing overall.
That said, I think some systems / sub-populations will be heavily impacted by upcoming games. In particular I suspect that PvMP will feel the impact of WAR / AoC as a great many of the regulars have stated they are waiting for those two. Even beside that statement, PvMP isn't much more than a mini-game with the same concepts as WAR - I can't see someone staying exclusively for PvMP (as many of the regulars are) when they could move to a whole game with the same concepts.
LOTRO isn't going to die. There hasn't yet been an MMO based on an existing IP that has shut down completely. That said, I think it's pretty evident that the population is pretty much stabilizing at it's current level right now. If LOTRO was increasing at any great rate there would be new servers opening - which isn't happening. I suspect that this is due to bleeding subscriptions from higher leveled characters without anything to do.
I know for a fact that it's been difficult to recruit on Landroval for some kins, there have been mergers and there are lots of kins actively recruiting due to population turn over. This indicates to me that the incoming population isn't high enough to sustain the number of kinships created by the bloat of people coming in after release, and the top level population is shrinking.
Of course, after every expansion there will be an increase in players that come back or (in the case of lifetimers) become active again to check out the new stuff. If the dev team mananges to magic up some interesting things to do long-term those people might stick around, otherwise they're likely to taper off until the next patch.
Long story short. My opinion is that LOTRO will remain a middle of the road game with a great percentage of the playerbase being of the more casual nature. It will likely become more and more solo-friendly and thus be one of those games that people come back to from time to time. It's not going to break any records but it'll be a name on the scene for a long time.
But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO.
But you do realize, that a game can still be running and be considered in the "dead" category right? I'd have to classify most of the older MMO's out there today have lost of a large percentage of their population (say 90%) and for all purposes, are strictly running on life support.
Sure, they may turn enough of a profit to keep running....but are largely forgotten in light of all the new games being released (heck, even some of the new games can't gain any of the spotlight)
Well can't that be said of anything? Today's news is tomorrow's trash.
As for games being in the "dead" category even though they're still running.. I think that's subjective. To the people playing and enjoying it it's quite alive.
Also, seems to me giving such credibility to a description such as "dead" or even "dying",when the game still has a player-base, is giving voice or credibility to many, often unsupported claims. There are people who will say a game is "dead" or "dying" simply because it no longer holds interest for them. And of course, many people love to speak in the plural, rather than for themselves, for whatever reason. So because it's "dead" for them, they relate it as "dead, period".
Example..
There are people who insist that Final Fantasy XI is dying.
By all accounts, it isn't. Even through the huge WoW phenomenon, its population has stayed pretty stable - somewhere between 500-600k subscribers, just like it's always had. Why? Because FFXI is a niche game with a niche player-base. The people who prefer FFXI do so specifically because of its gameplay and likely (and demonstrably) don't care for a game like WoW, or even LoTRO or many other games out there now. Still.. there are people who will insist it's "dying" or "dead", again, simply because it no longer entertains them, and/or perhaps a few other people they know.
Another reason I think it's careless to use the term "dead" so freely is because there are some who simply like to bash a game because they don't like it. So, they'll say "the game is dead, don't bother" to try and dissuade others from playing it, because for some reason it matters to those people whether or not people are playing a game they don't like.
There are others who will draw the inevitable comparison to WoW's subscription numbers, and say "FFXI is a dead game because they "only" have 500-600k players." The intellectual dishonesty apparent in that statement (to those without blinders) is that having 500-600k players is certainly a successful MMO. At $12.99 per month, using 550k as the sample number, accounting for only 1 content ID/character (and many people have several), that multiplies out to about $7.1 million per month. That's not counting individual box sales. That's hardly a "dead game". And of course, WoW's millions is generally accepted as a rarity in the genre. It's the exception, not the rule.
Point is, I think you need to be careful with how much weight you give something like saying a game is "dead", or even "dying". Again, because it can be subjective to the person playing it, or not playing it. And, because it's so often used in incorrect and/or misleading ways.
For me, I see it as a more black-or-white situation with shades of grey in the "white" category. if a game is no longer around and playable, it's dead - or "black". If it's still going and still has a player-base, it's alive. Thriving? No. Barely scraping by? Maybe. But still running? Absolutely. Shades of grey.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Lotro is a good game. The smoothest launch I ever seen for years of MMO launchs I have ever seen.
I have played this game for months, I have 5x lvl 50 all maxed crafting and so on. Yeah I have my share of love for it, but there is one thing that bothers me. All my friends (the first batch of 50s) are retiring, or getting inactive. There are many new comers everyday but the old batch are going, one by one, from total retirement to getting very inactive.
The game is excellent up to lvl 50, then there is a void to be filled. Waiting on a book is pain, and book 9 and 10 is not as good as I hope it to be. Book 6 to 8 are nothing short of breath taking even book 4 and 5 are stunning.
A game with such quality and continuous new content (books, updates) will not die. But with new games coming, it will not be expecting massive growth. Hellgate London, coming at the end of this month, will begin to test the resilience of the Lotro community, which by and large are casual players.
One last thing to note, many of the players of Lotro are lifetime subscribers. They will always contribute to the headcount of active subscribers even after they are long gone. My ex-roommate was a life timer. He quitted the game after 1 month, and his account is still listed (on my friendlist) all along. So counting active subscribers is a bit misleading here.
As for the active players, I found the game is be gradually "derserted", as it is getting harder and harder to find ppl in the zones, even at the lvl 40+ zones (west east angmar) where soloing is almost impossible. There is no one lfg, no one around anywhere during the off hours, and it has been a long long long time since I have to wait on a log on queue.
My prediction is that LoTRO will be fine and probably expanding to asia by then and be making a truck load of money.
This whole comparison of WAR, AoC and LoTRO reminds me of the whole Xbox360, PS3 and Wii shakeout.
The 360 and PS3 were supposed to wipe the floor with the underpowered Wii. Well the Wii is outselling both the 360 and PS3 Combined now because its a mass market product.
LoTRO is meant to appeal the casual gamer and that market is substantially larger then then niche hardcore gamer market. LoTRO is generating buzz in non gaming publications such as Business Week and that is vital to attracting casual players.
My prediction is that LoTRO will be fine and probably expanding to asia by then and be making a truck load of money. This whole comparison of WAR, AoC and LoTRO reminds me of the whole Xbox360, PS3 and Wii shakeout. The 360 and PS3 were supposed to wipe the floor with the underpowered Wii. Well the Wii is outselling both the 360 and PS3 Combined now because its a mass market product. LoTRO is meant to appeal the casual gamer and that market is substantially larger then then niche hardcore gamer market. LoTRO is generating buzz in non gaming publications such as Business Week and that is vital to attracting casual players. http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/sep2007/id20070928_550277.htm While it probably will never approach WoW's awesome subscription numbers, there is nothing wrong with being number 2 and still making a ton of money.
Hmmm... I have never thought of this analogy, but actually it's excellent. Very good observation I think you hit the nail on the head. Couldn't agree more!
I also own a Wii btw...
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
My prediction is that LoTRO will be fine and probably expanding to asia by then and be making a truck load of money. This whole comparison of WAR, AoC and LoTRO reminds me of the whole Xbox360, PS3 and Wii shakeout. The 360 and PS3 were supposed to wipe the floor with the underpowered Wii. Well the Wii is outselling both the 360 and PS3 Combined now because its a mass market product. LoTRO is meant to appeal the casual gamer and that market is substantially larger then then niche hardcore gamer market. LoTRO is generating buzz in non gaming publications such as Business Week and that is vital to attracting casual players. http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/sep2007/id20070928_550277.htm While it probably will never approach WoW's awesome subscription numbers, there is nothing wrong with being number 2 and still making a ton of money.
The license is definitely the main appeal...that will attract those who normally would not play these types of games. The end game is still questionable, and as someone else posted, a lot of level 50's put the game on the backburner. Either that or others get bored with the title.
The big deal will be the fact that as more content gets added, these level 50's will return...and lets not forget, expansions always push a game into the forefront. Look at WoW and EQ2...and now FFXI...a lot of people who have not played in a long time, will return when new expansions hit.
I know everyone is always on my case about the fact I do not like what they have done with the game, and how I discuss being annoyed over tech support, performance, and the UI...but, I also know the game was done well for what it is...a casual title to introduce people to MMO's...I am even willing to keep watching to see what they do to make it better (example = DDO...I always go back to see if advances have been made in gameplay and performance...same with EQ2, which the latest version finally made me say.."WoW...they got it right finally"..)
if someone either plays WoW or LOTRO or any other MMO it is always good for business...it allows other companies to get the financing to make and refine an MMO that experienced players will enjoy even more..(AoC or WAR for example..)
I mean it will just stagnate in certain aspects of the game like in the art department, pvp, technical issues, etc. After almost 4 years, EQ2 has made very little progress in some aspects of the game. I believe LotRO will be the same. What you see right now, is basically what you'll get for the rest of it's lifetime.
For now im afraid the only reason i log on is to play my creep. I have a lvl 50 Guardian and cant seem to find anything to do with him now. I'm sure when they come out with an exspansion or another patch for book 11 ill log him back on but until then its all about the Creeps baby.
Game will still be around, but in the shadow of WAR and AoC. Something bigger is comming and you just can't ignore it. Kinda like EQ2 and WoW.... EQ2 lives in the shadow of WoW.
Well, write this down and keep somewhere safe... cause I'd bet all I have on it that it won't be so!
Not because of LOTRO, but because none of these games will even be remotely as big as the hype suggests I will be _really_ surprised if any of them will ever hit 1 million subscribers! It doesn't matter how good they will be, but the mass market still only knows WOW, they are only starting to discover LOTRO (but many of them won't come over...). These 2 games (WAR and AOC) are only getting the hardcore MMO playerbase wet so far... the MMOG market is not at all as big as imagined kindof like the www bubble around 2000... it'll just pop.
DB
It is truly funny to read this thread today
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
I just realized this is a necro post. But yeah, its cool to look back at the wayback machine...some people were really wrong...others, mostly people playing at the time...were right.
---------- "Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
Yeah, it's funny how wrong all the haters were. I never understood why this game attracted so many rapid detractors near launch.
If I were to hazard a guess I'd say there are at least half again as many players on my server now as there were when I posted in this thread last year (maybe more). We got a big boost from MoM, and the populations have been healthy all along.
The predictions of AoC and WAR being WoW styles smash hits that put LoTRO to shame seem pretty laughable now. Hell, AoC was one of the worst launches we've seen in a long time..pretty much since AO. They are only now starting to recover.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
Comments
In one year, I'm quite certain that LOTRO will be in the clearance bin.
Perception is Reality.
See the pattern already?
5 posts in a whole month, every single one is lotro-bashing. 2 out of 4 opened topics: lotro bashing. Biased?
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
See the pattern already?
The name of the game: ogre-ing. Wait....no
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
Sure, they may turn enough of a profit to keep running....but are largely forgotten in light of all the new games being released (heck, even some of the new games can't gain any of the spotlight)
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Sure, they may turn enough of a profit to keep running....but are largely forgotten in light of all the new games being released (heck, even some of the new games can't gain any of the spotlight)
Perfect examples...AC2 (finally died)...and now Vanguard (on it's way)...(lol)
I think I noted before though...LOTRO will live on license. I have one friend who buys everything LOTR...from the Xbox games to the RTS's...he paid the lifetime for LOTRO but said he got bored, and quit at....level 35...lol...
But, it was bought, and paid for the lifetime...so, any life timer has already paid Turbine to stay up and running at least up to 2 years...counting sales and overall scrips..(just an impression)...also, this is not to say 2 years will be the end...just we KNOW 2 years should be good for Turbine
Cheers!
FWIW.
In a year I expect that LOTRO will be bigger and more fleshed out, and it's population will be stable or slightly decreasing overall.
That said, I think some systems / sub-populations will be heavily impacted by upcoming games. In particular I suspect that PvMP will feel the impact of WAR / AoC as a great many of the regulars have stated they are waiting for those two. Even beside that statement, PvMP isn't much more than a mini-game with the same concepts as WAR - I can't see someone staying exclusively for PvMP (as many of the regulars are) when they could move to a whole game with the same concepts.
LOTRO isn't going to die. There hasn't yet been an MMO based on an existing IP that has shut down completely. That said, I think it's pretty evident that the population is pretty much stabilizing at it's current level right now. If LOTRO was increasing at any great rate there would be new servers opening - which isn't happening. I suspect that this is due to bleeding subscriptions from higher leveled characters without anything to do.
I know for a fact that it's been difficult to recruit on Landroval for some kins, there have been mergers and there are lots of kins actively recruiting due to population turn over. This indicates to me that the incoming population isn't high enough to sustain the number of kinships created by the bloat of people coming in after release, and the top level population is shrinking.
Of course, after every expansion there will be an increase in players that come back or (in the case of lifetimers) become active again to check out the new stuff. If the dev team mananges to magic up some interesting things to do long-term those people might stick around, otherwise they're likely to taper off until the next patch.
Long story short. My opinion is that LOTRO will remain a middle of the road game with a great percentage of the playerbase being of the more casual nature. It will likely become more and more solo-friendly and thus be one of those games that people come back to from time to time. It's not going to break any records but it'll be a name on the scene for a long time.
But you do realize, that a game can still be running and be considered in the "dead" category right? I'd have to classify most of the older MMO's out there today have lost of a large percentage of their population (say 90%) and for all purposes, are strictly running on life support.Sure, they may turn enough of a profit to keep running....but are largely forgotten in light of all the new games being released (heck, even some of the new games can't gain any of the spotlight)
Well can't that be said of anything? Today's news is tomorrow's trash.
As for games being in the "dead" category even though they're still running.. I think that's subjective. To the people playing and enjoying it it's quite alive.
Also, seems to me giving such credibility to a description such as "dead" or even "dying",when the game still has a player-base, is giving voice or credibility to many, often unsupported claims. There are people who will say a game is "dead" or "dying" simply because it no longer holds interest for them. And of course, many people love to speak in the plural, rather than for themselves, for whatever reason. So because it's "dead" for them, they relate it as "dead, period".
Example..
There are people who insist that Final Fantasy XI is dying.
By all accounts, it isn't. Even through the huge WoW phenomenon, its population has stayed pretty stable - somewhere between 500-600k subscribers, just like it's always had. Why? Because FFXI is a niche game with a niche player-base. The people who prefer FFXI do so specifically because of its gameplay and likely (and demonstrably) don't care for a game like WoW, or even LoTRO or many other games out there now. Still.. there are people who will insist it's "dying" or "dead", again, simply because it no longer entertains them, and/or perhaps a few other people they know.
Another reason I think it's careless to use the term "dead" so freely is because there are some who simply like to bash a game because they don't like it. So, they'll say "the game is dead, don't bother" to try and dissuade others from playing it, because for some reason it matters to those people whether or not people are playing a game they don't like.
There are others who will draw the inevitable comparison to WoW's subscription numbers, and say "FFXI is a dead game because they "only" have 500-600k players." The intellectual dishonesty apparent in that statement (to those without blinders) is that having 500-600k players is certainly a successful MMO. At $12.99 per month, using 550k as the sample number, accounting for only 1 content ID/character (and many people have several), that multiplies out to about $7.1 million per month. That's not counting individual box sales. That's hardly a "dead game". And of course, WoW's millions is generally accepted as a rarity in the genre. It's the exception, not the rule.
Point is, I think you need to be careful with how much weight you give something like saying a game is "dead", or even "dying". Again, because it can be subjective to the person playing it, or not playing it. And, because it's so often used in incorrect and/or misleading ways.
For me, I see it as a more black-or-white situation with shades of grey in the "white" category. if a game is no longer around and playable, it's dead - or "black". If it's still going and still has a player-base, it's alive. Thriving? No. Barely scraping by? Maybe. But still running? Absolutely. Shades of grey.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
It will stagnate just like EQ2.
You consider EQ2 to be unsuccesful game?
REALITY CHECK
Lotro is a good game. The smoothest launch I ever seen for years of MMO launchs I have ever seen.
I have played this game for months, I have 5x lvl 50 all maxed crafting and so on. Yeah I have my share of love for it, but there is one thing that bothers me. All my friends (the first batch of 50s) are retiring, or getting inactive. There are many new comers everyday but the old batch are going, one by one, from total retirement to getting very inactive.
The game is excellent up to lvl 50, then there is a void to be filled. Waiting on a book is pain, and book 9 and 10 is not as good as I hope it to be. Book 6 to 8 are nothing short of breath taking even book 4 and 5 are stunning.
A game with such quality and continuous new content (books, updates) will not die. But with new games coming, it will not be expecting massive growth. Hellgate London, coming at the end of this month, will begin to test the resilience of the Lotro community, which by and large are casual players.
One last thing to note, many of the players of Lotro are lifetime subscribers. They will always contribute to the headcount of active subscribers even after they are long gone. My ex-roommate was a life timer. He quitted the game after 1 month, and his account is still listed (on my friendlist) all along. So counting active subscribers is a bit misleading here.
As for the active players, I found the game is be gradually "derserted", as it is getting harder and harder to find ppl in the zones, even at the lvl 40+ zones (west east angmar) where soloing is almost impossible. There is no one lfg, no one around anywhere during the off hours, and it has been a long long long time since I have to wait on a log on queue.
Just an observation from somebody who played LOTRO from day one :
The ingame population is roughly same as in first month.
So i guess the game is sailing steady...
My prediction is that LoTRO will be fine and probably expanding to asia by then and be making a truck load of money.
This whole comparison of WAR, AoC and LoTRO reminds me of the whole Xbox360, PS3 and Wii shakeout.
The 360 and PS3 were supposed to wipe the floor with the underpowered Wii. Well the Wii is outselling both the 360 and PS3 Combined now because its a mass market product.
LoTRO is meant to appeal the casual gamer and that market is substantially larger then then niche hardcore gamer market. LoTRO is generating buzz in non gaming publications such as Business Week and that is vital to attracting casual players.
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/sep2007/id20070928_550277.htm
While it probably will never approach WoW's awesome subscription numbers, there is nothing wrong with being number 2 and still making a ton of money.
I also own a Wii btw...
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
The license is definitely the main appeal...that will attract those who normally would not play these types of games. The end game is still questionable, and as someone else posted, a lot of level 50's put the game on the backburner. Either that or others get bored with the title.
The big deal will be the fact that as more content gets added, these level 50's will return...and lets not forget, expansions always push a game into the forefront. Look at WoW and EQ2...and now FFXI...a lot of people who have not played in a long time, will return when new expansions hit.
I know everyone is always on my case about the fact I do not like what they have done with the game, and how I discuss being annoyed over tech support, performance, and the UI...but, I also know the game was done well for what it is...a casual title to introduce people to MMO's...I am even willing to keep watching to see what they do to make it better (example = DDO...I always go back to see if advances have been made in gameplay and performance...same with EQ2, which the latest version finally made me say.."WoW...they got it right finally"..)
if someone either plays WoW or LOTRO or any other MMO it is always good for business...it allows other companies to get the financing to make and refine an MMO that experienced players will enjoy even more..(AoC or WAR for example..)
Cheers!
You consider EQ2 to be unsuccesful game?
Unsuccessful? No.
I mean it will just stagnate in certain aspects of the game like in the art department, pvp, technical issues, etc. After almost 4 years, EQ2 has made very little progress in some aspects of the game. I believe LotRO will be the same. What you see right now, is basically what you'll get for the rest of it's lifetime.
For now im afraid the only reason i log on is to play my creep. I have a lvl 50 Guardian and cant seem to find anything to do with him now. I'm sure when they come out with an exspansion or another patch for book 11 ill log him back on but until then its all about the Creeps baby.
Well, write this down and keep somewhere safe... cause I'd bet all I have on it that it won't be so!
Not because of LOTRO, but because none of these games will even be remotely as big as the hype suggests
I will be _really_ surprised if any of them will ever hit 1 million subscribers! It doesn't matter how good they will be, but the mass market still only knows WOW, they are only starting to discover LOTRO (but many of them won't come over...). These 2 games (WAR and AOC) are only getting the hardcore MMO playerbase wet so far... the MMOG market is not at all as big as imagined 
kindof like the www bubble around 2000... it'll just pop.
DB
It is truly funny to read this thread today
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
I just realized this is a necro post. But yeah, its cool to look back at the wayback machine...some people were really wrong...others, mostly people playing at the time...were right.
----------
"Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"No, your wrong.." - Random user #123
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
How are you?" -Me
Yeah, it's funny how wrong all the haters were. I never understood why this game attracted so many rapid detractors near launch.
If I were to hazard a guess I'd say there are at least half again as many players on my server now as there were when I posted in this thread last year (maybe more). We got a big boost from MoM, and the populations have been healthy all along.
The predictions of AoC and WAR being WoW styles smash hits that put LoTRO to shame seem pretty laughable now. Hell, AoC was one of the worst launches we've seen in a long time..pretty much since AO. They are only now starting to recover.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.