To everyone who thinks this game will fail just because it's being made by SOE

Puffles

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

Regression toward the mean refers to the fact that those with extreme scores on any measure at one point in time will, for purely statistical reasons, probably have less extreme scores the next time they are tested. Many extreme scores happen to fall with or against the initial score depending on whether your extreme score is extremely high or extremely low.

Consider an extreme example: a class of students takes a 100-item true/false test on a subject on which none of the students knows anything at all. Therefore, all students choose randomly on all questions leading to a mean score of about 50. Naturally, some students will score substantially above 50 and some substantially below 50 just by chance. If one takes only the top 10% of the students and gives them a parallel form of test on which they again guess on all items, the mean score would be expected to be close to 50. Thus the mean of these students would "regress" all the way back to the mean of all students who took the original test. No matter what a student scores on the original test, the best prediction of their score on the parallel form is 50.

If there were no luck on the test then all students would score the same on the parallel form as they scored on original test, and there would be no regression toward the mean.

Real situations fall between these two extremes: scores are a combination of skill and luck. If you choose a subset of people who score above the mean, they will be (on average) above the mean on skill and above the mean on luck. On a retest their previously above-average luck will revert to about average. They will therefore score above the mean due to their above-average skill, but not by as much as they did the first time because they will not be as lucky as they were the first time.

This concept can be easily applied to SOE's record to predict their future. Since SOE screwed up lots of their games to the point where they were unplayable, that gives us a really extreme set of data. The principle of regression toward the mean says that the next game they release won't be messed up anywhere nearly as badly. Just based on statistics, their next game will probably be screwed up somewhat, but not to the point where it's unplayable.

But that's just based on the numbers; that's not taking into account the fact that SOE has probably learned from their mistakes, because when the community hates a game developer, that game developer earns far less money. I'm sure that by now SOE has learned to listen to what the majority of players want, so that they can make more money off of their games. Couple that fact with the principle of regression toward the mean, and you get a pretty clear prediction:

SOE has had a really bad record in the past, but The Agency will be virtually flawless; it will be the game they use to redeem themselves and develop a new, better reputation.

Kyleran

What?

How about a different theory. Until company proves they have a clue about making/maintaining a good game why don't we just assume everything they put out will be crap>

Past performance "is" a good indicator of the future in the case of game makers.

 

Puffles

Obviously you have no idea how regression toward the mean works.

Of course past performance is a good indicator of the future in the case of game makers. It's generally a good way to predict the future for anything. But when you're predicting the future, you always have to take into account the effects of regression toward the mean whenever you're dealing with extreme data.

When a game studio makes the Game of the Year, look at the average rating of the next game they release. 49 out of 50 times, the game is good, but not quite as good as the one that won Game of the Year. (Check for yourself if you don't believe me.) The same applies to studios that release the crappiest game imaginable; the next game they release will probably have improved somewhat.

Daffid011

Someone rush this classroom theory over to Perpetual Entertainment ASAP!  They must be informed that if they just keep trying eventually they will get a decent game to market.

 

Thanks Wikipedia for setting the record straight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Xyn99

Originally posted by Puffles


Obviously you have no idea how regression toward the mean works.
Of course past performance is a good indicator of the future in the case of game makers. It's generally a good way to predict the future for anything. But when you're predicting the future, you always have to take into account the effects of regression toward the mean whenever you're dealing with extreme data.
When a game studio makes the Game of the Year, look at the average rating of the next game they release. 49 out of 50 times, the game is good, but not quite as good as the one that won Game of the Year. (Check for yourself if you don't believe me.) The same applies to studios that release the crappiest game imaginable; the next game they release will probably have improved somewhat.

Hmm, the only problem with that idea would be Blizzard.  They seem to just keep throwing out giant hits that all are games of the year(Warcraft 1, 2, 3, Diablo 1 & 2, Starcraft, World of Warcraft). Well, nice theory though.  And no I am not a Blizzard fanboi, I don't play any of those games anymore.

Stuhero

Even if they do produce a flawless game it is unlikely to become a commercial success due to rapant bad word of mouth over their past.

Puffles

Originally posted by Stuhero


Even if they do produce a flawless game it is unlikely to become a commercial success due to rapant bad word of mouth over their past.

Regardless of whether or not The Agency is a commercial success, I'll still be playing it as long as it's fun.

Nnyan

Yeah people said this about SWG and V:SoH too.

Stuhero

Originally posted by Puffles

Originally posted by Stuhero


Even if they do produce a flawless game it is unlikely to become a commercial success due to rapant bad word of mouth over their past.

Regardless of whether or not The Agency is a commercial success, I'll still be playing it as long as it's fun.

I wont be playing as it sends the message to the industry as a whole that you can screw your customers without paying a price. If that is the message you want to send thats cool, freedom of choice is a wonderful thing, It is a poor choice in my opinion.

Puffles

Originally posted by Stuhero

Originally posted by Puffles

Originally posted by Stuhero


Even if they do produce a flawless game it is unlikely to become a commercial success due to rapant bad word of mouth over their past.

Regardless of whether or not The Agency is a commercial success, I'll still be playing it as long as it's fun.

I wont be playing as it sends the message to the industry as a whole that you can screw your customers without paying a price. If that is the message you want to send thats cool, freedom of choice is a wonderful thing, It is a poor choice in my opinion.

So you're saying that SOE should be permanently boycotted, even if they get their act together and stop screwing the customers that want to give them a second chance?

darkboaz

Prior performance is a good indication of future performance.

Puffles

Originally posted by darkboaz


Prior performance is a good indication of future performance.

Nobody said otherwise; in fact, I've already discussed that in a previous reply. I suggest you read the whole thread.

HelloKirby

Sometimes it doesn't matter if you've had fifty spankings because you purposefully threw poo at someone more then 30 times.  Some people just don't learn.  I wouldn't get your hopes up, SOE has a very scratched record.  But if they nail it this time and hand me a chocolate pie instead of a flaming pile of crap then

rashhero

I don't think it's so much that SOE is involved with the game that'll cause its failure, I think it's the IP itself. I really don't see it as being a game that can hold on to an audience once its initial "Its something different" feel wears off. Just an opinion though, I'll of course beta test it but after that, I'm sure I'll find myself in a boring and endless circle of missions that are essentially the same, only different target, location and amount of people.

bverji

What you're saying makes some since, and there are some examples that SOE has learned some lessons. However, there are many more instances indicating they're still perfectly willing to follow their history of releasing a game way before it's ready, charge people why SOE runs their beta, change classes and add content over fixing original content.  SOE has along way to go before they come anywhere close to reaching that mean, and have proven that they are resistant to change/improvement. Corporations don't function the same way as individuals, and change is typically much harder to come by.Also, such social theories are meant to be used as an understanding about how such changes do come about, not as a single model to predict an outcome.

Gishgeron

Heh, you have to take SOE out of any 'mean' comparison because they managed to jump between both extremes of the mean in the same game.

 

This doesn't matter anyway, the issue with SOE has always been its complete elitism and sense of self-omnipotence that caused players to hate them.  Its not that they can't make good games...its that they really don't care.  They have a long history of ignoring players, ignoring critical issues, silencing complaints, and outrageous lies.  I can't name the number of betas that company has been a part of in which they listened to not ONE single person in their testing crew about serious things that needed to happen.

 

I'll even leave SWG out of this one, because their performance in other MMO's has been bad enough that we don't even need to discuss that one.  Even if it was the best game in the world...their inability to listen to anything their customer has to say is beyond excusable.  They need to do some "over the top" repair on their relationship with players.  A customer appreciation month perhaps.....where they allow everyone to get a free month in each of their games.  They could start using a poll system placed in the game launchers to gather information from players...and then USE that data for once.

 

They could also say they are sorry for being made of suck and fail too.

 

Till then...how good a game they make really doesn't matter.  The Chinese Restaraunt in town here has great food too, but that doesn't mean they will ever get another dime of my money after how I was treated there.

darkboaz

' Past performance "is" a good indicator of the future in the case of game makers. '

Is what was said before, then you came back with

"of course past performance is a good indicator of the future in the case of game makers"

while giving the poster an ear full about not understanding regression tword the mean. 

I was beleaving i was reiderating the genral idea of   " prior performance is a good indicator of future performance " 

It was all good but you wanted to think your so much brighter then every one and you have some nugget of arcane knowlage.  Regression towrd the mean fits this great but you are flawed in one of your base premissis, the mean for SOE and the median are the same. You kinda need for the bad handeling of things to be outliers for there to be much of a regression towrd a mean. 

Now mabe you have some point that if we look at SOE its self as part of the whole of gaming and that IT is the outlier then gee your right they can not go anny place but up . I personaly say at that point you have to invoke Sturgeon's law. If sturgeon was right and 90% of every thing is crap then I fear we find thet the mean of games is worse then we might want to bleave and we slide back  to having regresion towrd the mean leaving us with crap.

Puffles

 

 

Originally posted by darkboaz


' Past performance "is" a good indicator of the future in the case of game makers. '
Is what was said before, then you came back with
"of course past performance is a good indicator of the future in the case of game makers"
while giving the poster an ear full about not understanding regression tword the mean. 
I was beleaving i was reiderating the genral idea of   " prior performance is a good indicator of future performance " 
It was all good but you wanted to think your so much brighter then every one and you have some nugget of arcane knowlage.  Regression towrd the mean fits this great but you are flawed in one of your base premissis, the mean for SOE and the median are the same. You kinda need for the bad handeling of things to be outliers for there to be much of a regression towrd a mean. 
Now mabe you have some point that if we look at SOE its self as part of the whole of gaming and that IT is the outlier then gee your right they can not go anny place but up . I personaly say at that point you have to invoke Sturgeon's law. If sturgeon was right and 90% of every thing is crap then I fear we find thet the mean of games is worse then we might want to bleave and we slide back  to having regresion towrd the mean leaving us with crap.

First of all, I don't want to think I'm so much brighter than everyone else. I was simply stating that he didn't seem to understand the concept. I'm open to the fact that it's possible I'm wrong about all of this, but I want to try to defend my position, because I believe that I'm probably correct. This doesn't have anything to do with my intellect or my ego. 

 

I was in fact referring to SOE itself as the outlier. I believe that you can't use Sturgeon's law here for two reasons. One is that it's not literally a law, it's simply a subjective opinion that you can't confirm or disconfirm with any amount of data, and two is that the quality of a game is looked at relatively, in comparison with other games. If you truly believe that 90% of all MMOs are crud, then that means you lower your standards accordingly. (If you don't, then that implies that you wouldn't look forward to an MMO that's better than 89% of all other MMOs on the market, because it would still be crud--and if that's the way you think, then this game would probably be crud to you regardless of whether or not it was being made by SOE.)

Stuhero

Originally posted by Puffles

Originally posted by Stuhero

Originally posted by Puffles

Originally posted by Stuhero


Even if they do produce a flawless game it is unlikely to become a commercial success due to rapant bad word of mouth over their past.

Regardless of whether or not The Agency is a commercial success, I'll still be playing it as long as it's fun.

I wont be playing as it sends the message to the industry as a whole that you can screw your customers without paying a price. If that is the message you want to send thats cool, freedom of choice is a wonderful thing, It is a poor choice in my opinion.

So you're saying that SOE should be permanently boycotted, even if they get their act together and stop screwing the customers that want to give them a second chance?

No thats not what I am saying. If they get their act together and stop screwing their customers then I am more than willing to give them another chance. So far they are not heading in that direction. Misdirection is still their forte.

Juztinb42

Yep, sounds like you are "more than willing" to give them another chance with that website under your name. 

Stuhero

Originally posted by Juztinb42


Yep, sounds like you are "more than willing" to give them another chance with that website under your name. 

Hopefully that website under my name will add just a little more pressure to SOE to inspire the changes needed to become a company that gives a crap about their customers. Try reading it and see some of the lies and contempt that SOE holds for their payinfg customers. Pay special attention to the posts by Jeff Freeman a former Dev on SWG.

Juztinb42

Originally posted by Stuhero

Originally posted by Juztinb42


Yep, sounds like you are "more than willing" to give them another chance with that website under your name. 

Hopefully that website under my name will add just a little more pressure to SOE to inspire the changes needed to become a company that gives a crap about their customers. Try reading it and see some of the lies and contempt that SOE holds for their payinfg customers. Pay special attention to the posts by Jeff Freeman a former Dev on SWG.

Yeah, someone who supports a website that insults a company will defenitely be looked apon as a wise source for insight toward that company's future.  Gimme a break, you obviously have no clue what is going on at SOE. 

Maybe I'll say it one more time: SWG was great under SOE, terrible under LA, EQ was the first real MMO and set the standard for others to come, VG was acquired from an opiate addicted failing old bastard and is going to be one of the top MMO's in the market in 2 years(but not commercialy because of people like yourself who come to quick assumptions without any optimism).

Ok, done.

Layvian

Bliizard has had its fallings to but there is no reason to assume that SOE will set crap out.

 

First off why do you assume it will be crap what game have they put out besides SWG that makes you think al lthe games are bad.

 

Vanguard... Let me remind thoses who don't know... Vanguard is a Microsoft Product... When Microsoft ditched it SOE picked it up from the ground, and are currently rebuilding it.  I know this for FACT, I was a developer on the project.

Matrix Online:  Not an original SOE product, blame there developers not SOE.  

Planet Side:  Seems to be popular and really not much to say there due to the fact there were no huge changes in the game at least not like a NGE.

So again you have no room nor idea what you are talking about.

 

SOE does not put out shit products they just take the blame because they try and help.  SWG was a goo game ok SOE drop the original team and hired a cheeper team from japan but still they only missed up on a single game.

EQ2 and EQ are fine.

j1flaw

That was well said. EQ and EQ2 are still extremely popular and populated games. The real reason behind the NGE I think will never be released but I think everyone has their own assumption... It was a mistake and hurt the game big time, but I see what they are doing now to that game and it's wonderful. I have faith in SOE and I know they take a LOT of heat but they can still do a great job.

Bama1267

 I wouldnt question the game being good but rather will it be the same game you payed for a year down the road.

mrw0lf

Seeing as how it was the basis for the thread, I would like to see the explaination of how any theory on any regression principle is relavent here. Wiki has much to answer for imo, the very same example used in the OP ommit its use here, no? Regression towards a mean is useful as an idea when we are talking only about random acts. It would be nice to think that SOE does more than throw a bunch of cards up in the air and picks the code, ideas, etc at random.