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Any chance of success? lets think..
The problem with developing a game for 7 years is that... engine/tehnology/graphics get left behind fast.
The good part is... mostly everyone can play it smooth on any PC. (or it should).
Also this game didnt lose the vaporware flavour yet. Sure it might be down to 10% or even less but
when (if) it will be ready.. it must be a damn GOOD game to be able to make profit in a period of many new promising games getting ready to launch.
Aion, TCoS, AoC, WAR.. just to name the big ones and the new expasion for the mighty WoW (which is expected to grow even more).
Personaly I want Darkfall to be a great game. and hell we need a great and different game now more then ever but the question is... does it have any chance of success?
Why is this important?
It is because even if it will turn out to be a decent game, it wont be enough to keep it going.
It really needs to be GREAT to justify the money already spent in it and even more money that needs to be put in to hire GMs, support, tehnical staff, buy new servers, bandwith and all that goes with a MMO.
IF its not gonna turn out to be GREAT, it will not attract enough subscribers to keep it going.
They gonna need a good publisher also to get this going. and a good publisher always takes a good part of the future profits also.
Personally I dont see this one staying above the floating line with anything under 200k fast subscribers.
Sure if WoW would die tommorow and all those 10 milion would spread around the future MMO releases I wouldnt worry so much.. but that wont happen in the next 2 years for sure.
Blizzard is not only famous for games that get in TOP they are also famous for games that stay in TOP.
Anyway theres so much competition coming ahead that you really need to pull out a miracle to get a successful MMO going.
Personally i think it will be cruel. a few will be able to hold their ground and the rest will die.
Lets take LOTRO for example. It has 1 mil subscribers and growing atm from what I know. There is no doubt it turned out to be a succesful game.
It didnt have much competition though, besides TBC only Vanguard was new and promising. Vanguard failed. LOTRO turned out great but with a great company behind it, alot of money, alot of publicity, a smooth and nice launch.. and of course the great Lord of the Rings name behind it.
LOTRO is a great, beautiful and well made game, but still it took time, alot of free updates and alot of bored WoW players to turn out succesful.
So Im asking you... what chances of success do you see in Darkfal? (sry for my bad english/spelling btw)
Comments
I think the game could easilly hit 400k+ subcriptions if the following are met:
1) The game has 95% of the features it claims to have.
2) The graphics may be outdated but have good context to each other and make a good immersion feeling.
3) If they do self publish littile lag, cheating and bugs.
Wow has brought millions of new people into the MMO market. I don't think these people want to play the same game design over and over. Darkfall offers a new choice for people who try and hopefully fall in love with Darkfall game like I have in shadowbane.
Just my thoughts.
The self publish thing wont work though. It only works if you dont think big numbers.
Not to mention it will cost them ALOT more to put in. Dont know if they can get it.
and yes WoW brought millions of new people but those people will judge and compare to what they started with. They like what WoW gave them and will look for that in future games.
To make them like what Darkfall has new to offer it must be made with QUALITY screaming all over.
Darkfall as a game sticks out. Just about no competition whatsoever in its concept, there is just no comparable MMORPG under development. Its a niche game and If they succeed in delivering there features and have a good beta and release id say +500K subs will be a well reachable number. And considering they dont put out fantasy sums on promotings the number of needed subs will be lower.
Not needing a state of the art computer for playing the game is just something to be happy with as i see it. I prefer good gameplay before graphics any day. Having to buy a new computer every 3-year is really annoying. But as you say, they gotta deliver good gameplay also. Darkfall features and hopefully good gameplay is Darkfalls strongest sides. And personally i think the graphics is good enough as they is.
Searched for a thread on Darkfall forums about needed subs but couldnt find it. Anyway the estimated numbers of subs needed stranded btw 50-100K. Whether this is accurate is beyond me but Darkfall wont need the same amount of subs as for example AoC and Warhammer will need.
Some insight from Tasos Flambouras about publishing: http://www.warcry.com/articles/view/devjournals/darkfalljournals/2813-Darkfall-Dev-Journal-21-Community-Q-A
[QUOTE] Community: why has Darkfall had such a hard time securing a solid publisher and with the impending release of both age of Conan and Warhammer online aren't you concerned that the game will be unable to maintain a self sustaining profitable player base considering that the other games have giant budgets and giant advertising campaigns.
Tasos Flambouras: In very simple terms, it's not so much as Darkfall having a hard time securing a publisher as it is that publishers have had a hard time securing Darkfall. I'll explain: We do have the capability to self-publish, so the competition to any publishing offer, aside from other offers, is our own plan for self-publication. In our self-publishing scheme we hire the same services that most publishers use so in effect "cutting out the middleman" is usually to our advantage, especially since as a newcomer in the gaming industry it's rare to get a fantastic deal. Furthermore, getting a publishing deal isn't crucial to us in regards to development, and we won't just jump at offers. We have the "luxury" to try to do what's best for the game in this context. That being said, we have been and still are in discussions with publishers who present a good and viable alternative to our self-publishing plan.
Giant budgets and giant advertising campaigns demand giant paydays. We definitely don't need to be a World of Warcraft killer to be successful, but the same may not be true about some of the other games in development. When faced with the question of budget allocation we decided that it's more important for us to first make as good a game as possible and then to market it on its merit. The opposite doesn't work in the long run, and quality would be compromised by taking some of the development resources and throwing them into marketing so we're betting everything on our strength. We couldn't compete with some of the large titles when it comes to marketing since it all comes down to dollars and cents, but we can still make one hell of a game. [/QUOTE]
Nice thread btw,
.
I'm sure this game will be a pretty good success, if they have what they say they have and if they release the game within the next 3 years they have a chance.
If it's released longer than 3 years fromm now, it will just fall behind the rest.
__________________________________________________
In memory of Laura "Taera" Genender. Passed away on Aug/13/08 - Rest In Peace; you will not be forgotten
"If it delivers" [TM] on the features that it has promised, DF certainly could attract an audience of 500K, especially if it runs well on lower end computers (from a graphics perspective)
There's certainly not a lot of other games with a similar promise/concept (except Earthrise) and I think the market is ready for something new.
I suspect several of the games coming out this year will crash and burn, so the market might be ready for DF next year (or whenever) they finally release it.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Basicly i agree with Kyleran and Ghoul, if it releases in a good shape with all announced features it will do well, and it will not need a lot of subcribers to do well.
If they self publish it i think 100k+ would be a success, more than 200k+ would be a great success. And the best comparison is EvE, they self puplished and started with around 50-80k and have grown since that to over 200k and everyone(including CCP) say it is a huge success.
The same may be true for darkfall.. now it is just important that they release it in a good shape with all announced features within the next two years. And as a lot of the other posters said, the concept is so much different to anything else(beside Earthrise and a few other.. but all of them are in early development, and will not release within the next 3 years), which attract a huge enough, and more important loyal fanbase, if they release it in good shape.
In the end, it lies only in the hand of the DF devs to have success, they have to have a smooth launch, and the gameplay and concept will convince more than enough people.
Who wouldent wanna play a MMO as DF? This forum alone is proof of that. This is the only forum where players from all other MMOs meet to discuss.
And if MMOs as AoC can wave with one special feature infront of the WoW community.......think what DF could do if it wanted to?
AoC is being made by a AAA company with multiple titles under their belt, including, but not limited to, a MMO. Keep in mind Funcom has won awards for Adventure Games they've made.Also keep in mind that Funcom is smart enough not to chase the WoW community.
- CaesarsGhost
Lead Gameplay and Gameworld Designer for a yet unnamed MMO Title.
"When people tell me designing a game is easy, I try to get them to design a board game. Most people don't last 5 minutes, the rest rarely last more then a day. The final few realize it's neither fun nor easy."
Wow this thread is funny. 200,000?? 500,000??
Man you people must be smoking some real good stuff.
There is absolutely NO WAY ON GODS GREEN EARTH that Darkfall would ever see anywhere remotely near 200,000 subscribers let alone 500,000.
At this point Darkfall would be EXTREMELY LUCKY to get and hold even 30,000 subscribers for a full year.. and the odds of it even getting and holding 30,000 subs is very very low.
This isn't 1996 anymore. You people are living in a dream land along with the Darkfall developers.
The current market would chew up and spit out Darkfall before it even had a chance to grab enough subs to even matter.
No because based on all logical business reasoning , Darkfall failed behind closed doors about 3+ years ago... It's just a project waiting to fail publically now if it actually launches.
I see darkfall launching at some point in time and getting a player base of maybe 5-10k subs and fading out of everyones memory...
No because based on all logical business reasoning , Darkfall failed behind closed doors about 3+ years ago... It's just a project waiting to fail publically now if it actually launches...
Sometimes just soemtimes i read these forums and I find someone that still isnt completely deluded , yall should read the above statement twice and take it in & may i need to add it actually needs to be released lmao but hey as you know BETA is just round the corner!! lol.
AoC is being made by a AAA company with multiple titles under their belt, including, but not limited to, a MMO. Keep in mind Funcom has won awards for Adventure Games they've made.Also keep in mind that Funcom is smart enough not to chase the WoW community.
You sir, don't know what you are talking about. Look at their videos and read the dev blogs. They have repeatedly said they are not making another WoW but they are targeting the WoW player base. That is why the game is SIMPLE and FUN. Otherwise they would make the combat system like AO and settle for a low subscriber base game.
Fear not fanbois, we are not trolls, let's take off your tin foil hat and learn what VAPORWARE is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware
"Vaporware is a term used to describe a software or hardware product that is announced by a developer well in advance of release, but which then fails to emerge after having well exceeded the period of development time that was initially claimed or would normally be expected for the development cycle of a similar product."
No because based on all logical business reasoning , Darkfall failed behind closed doors about 3+ years ago... It's just a project waiting to fail publically now if it actually launches.
I see darkfall launching at some point in time and getting a player base of maybe 5-10k subs and fading out of everyones memory...
Hmm, yet another harsh, negative, post from a newly created account that seems to have been created with almost the sole purpose of bashing Darkfall. That sure has never happened before.
(Why do you keep creating new alt accounts, are the other ones banned?)
Your "guesses" are no more based on fact than anyone else's here, and therefore no more valid than any other. I concur, the odds aren't great that DF will release, nor that it will deliver all that its promised.
However, on the off chance that they do, then sub numbers up to 500k are not beyond the realm of possibility in this market today. (IMO of course). You obviously disagree, but that's OK, you'll be busy playing something else I'm sure.
Come to think of it, I'll be playing lots of other games until (and if) the day comes that DF releases.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Yes it's far beyond the realm of possibility. So far in fact that it's basically impossible.. Technically I can become an Astronaut and be the first person to walk on Mars.. but that's not going to happen either..
Everyone knows this project isn't anywhere remotely near being done and that in itself is more than enough to come to a logical conclusion that at this point in time it's already a failure given what it would have to go up against in the market to make money.
If you were to let a business advisement company look over this project and give advice on what should be done , they would tell you to cancel it tomorrow and use it as a tax writeoff.
They only big mistake DF developers done was to tell YOU what they about to release.
Really the underestimated the will to beeing destructive in the human nature..but they were young that time...
If i would have the chance to be selective and to select who will join the server i would have ban all those trashtalk the game here just for justice purposes....you lucky i don't have that power.
jeez If you are paying them after the game has been released you have the right to talk about game failures bugs bad experiences and even then not in destructive manner...
The more i think about the better i find the idea of them telling only a close circle of people about the game, would have been better from start ...
really i very dislike the possibility to meet you in the released game ..sorry for that harsh words but DF people trying for they "lifetime" work thing you that easily trashtalk here and till now you have given them for their efforts relatively nothing till destructive trashtalk...
To topic ...
This game still has chances cause we all know other games dumped their features down to "calm" and capture mainstream, so if it gets released with the promised features and it is fun to play and addictive like lets say mount&blade then it will have success and word of mouth will drag even more and the RIGHT people onto the servers ...
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$OE - eternal enemy of online gaming
-We finally WON !!!! 2011 $OE accepted that they have been fired 2005 by the playerbase and closed down ridiculous NGE !!
"There was suppression of speech and all kinds of things between disturbing and fascistic." Raph Koster (parted $OE)
Everyone knows this project isn't anywhere remotely near being done and that in itself is more than enough to come to a logical conclusion that at this point in time it's already a failure given what it would have to go up against in the market to make money.
Just because it isn't nearly done doesn't mean it still can't suceed. If they release this in 3 years with most of the features promised, they will get 200k subs easily.
I remember when Shadowbane was released. It was very buggy, very laggy, and the graphics were outdated. They were still able to get 100k subs at release. And that was 5 years ago, when there were a lot less people playing MMORPGS. The reason was, it was the only game of its kind out there.
So if Darkfall turns out to be a better version of Shadowbane, it will get 200k subs because there still isn't another game out there like this.
Yes it's far beyond the realm of possibility. So far in fact that it's basically impossible.. Technically I can become an Astronaut and be the first person to walk on Mars.. but that's not going to happen either..
Everyone knows this project isn't anywhere remotely near being done and that in itself is more than enough to come to a logical conclusion that at this point in time it's already a failure given what it would have to go up against in the market to make money.
If you were to let a business advisement company look over this project and give advice on what should be done , they would tell you to cancel it tomorrow and use it as a tax writeoff.
Well I stopped reading after the impossiable remark because nothing is impossiable, NOTHING.
Anyone can do anything they want, all it takes is effort, if your willing to put in the effort then you can do anything.
There is no reason a game like Darkfall cant have over 1 million subs after a year, if and when they release the game with all the features listed. If the game is good, people will play it. It is that simple.
Look at SecondLife. For me personally I think that is the worst Idea for a game but they are doing really well.
Again NOTHING is IMPOSSIABLE.
Sooner or Later
No because based on all logical business reasoning , Darkfall failed behind closed doors about 3+ years ago... It's just a project waiting to fail publically now if it actually launches.
I see darkfall launching at some point in time and getting a player base of maybe 5-10k subs and fading out of everyones memory...
If Darkfall delivers id be very surpriced if they didnt have 500K subs fairly fast. No competition whatsoever on MMORPG market on their niche concept is one reason for it, and a good one.
If you check up where most players comes from youd see its from WoW. Bored to death grinders searching for something new and challenging.
AoC and WAR is just two WoW-clones which isnt what these players is looking for. AoC beta leaks also tell us the game is nothing but a catastrophy. Loads of disappointed AoC fans will join Darkfall. Same with Warhammer. Darkfall stands out as the only real hardcore PvP-game under development of now.
1996? Didnt really understand that but if youre reffering to outdated game youre wrong again. Good gameplay and features is what is most important in any game. And what other game under development is even close to Darkfalls? None. Darkfall graphics is top of the class if youd ask me. Its good enough for this year and will be good enough for many years to come if gameplay and features delivers.
When I think about this game and whether or not it will do well I can't help but think-- Nomatter what this game will be successful in the first couple months. 100K subscribers will play this game -- easy -- in the first couple months at least and it doesn't matter if the game is completely horrible or the best game ever made.
Take a look at some of the other MMORPGs out there. Many of them have pretty horrible graphics -- some of them have fairly decent graphics. Some games give you little information about playability, some give you a bunch of information about playability.
Already darkfall has shown that the graphics -- although not everyones idea of perfect -- look better then most games and anyone that picks up a DarkFall box and reads the 40 Page booklet of features that they have posted on the back will automatically be interested.
The game could have the playability of a pickle, but the graphics (which are decent) and the features (which are plentiful) will at least TRICK a playerbase into playing this game. Look at SWG. They've limped along on the features they claim are so amazing eventhough they are far from it.
So gameplay aside -- a game like darkfall will sell itself just on the box and description alone. For all those players, I hope they make something special so it's not a waste of money like Vanguard was on launch.
There is a simple test you can make to see how popular DF could be:
Lets pretend DF is released with all names features in, what MMO would you rather play? What features would you "take away" for another MMO? Naval combat? City building? No xp? Empire building? Big risk vs reward?
Ohh, and please tell why you wanna play the other MMO.
For me: i wouldent trade away any feature for a lesser MMO. I would only trade upward so to say.
Darkfall is the only game in prodcution that I am even considering playing for any length of time, if I play AoC or WAR it would be to waste time until Darkfall releases, that is IF i play any of them, by the looks of things WoW expansion n2 will have just about all the features that WAR is said to have over WoW, blizzard are so smart, its crazy.
Personally I think Darkfall will break 500k in the first year and under the following 3 years it will climb to about 2 million players. That is an estimate based on the sort of buzz I see around Darkfall but also based on the hundreds of thousands of people that bash Darkfall because they don't think its going to release, mostly because its and I qoute "to good to be true" well what do you think all those people will do when it turns out to be true? lol
And OP you might want to get at least one or two facts right before you make a post next time.
Exactly! If Darkfall was going to be as popular as people claim, Shadowbane would still be a huge hit instead of the unsupported freeware that it is today. After a year, DFO will have the server population that Shadowbane has today.
Fear not fanbois, we are not trolls, let's take off your tin foil hat and learn what VAPORWARE is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware
"Vaporware is a term used to describe a software or hardware product that is announced by a developer well in advance of release, but which then fails to emerge after having well exceeded the period of development time that was initially claimed or would normally be expected for the development cycle of a similar product."
Yes it's far beyond the realm of possibility. So far in fact that it's basically impossible.. Technically I can become an Astronaut and be the first person to walk on Mars.. but that's not going to happen either..
Everyone knows this project isn't anywhere remotely near being done and that in itself is more than enough to come to a logical conclusion that at this point in time it's already a failure given what it would have to go up against in the market to make money.
If you were to let a business advisement company look over this project and give advice on what should be done , they would tell you to cancel it tomorrow and use it as a tax writeoff.
Well I stopped reading after the impossiable remark because nothing is impossiable, NOTHING.
Anyone can do anything they want, all it takes is effort, if your willing to put in the effort then you can do anything.
There is no reason a game like Darkfall cant have over 1 million subs after a year, if and when they release the game with all the features listed. If the game is good, people will play it. It is that simple.
Look at SecondLife. For me personally I think that is the worst Idea for a game but they are doing really well.
Again NOTHING is IMPOSSIABLE.
First of all, reading the whole thread is ipossible, so you should probably try that, even though I, and apparently others, are wrong.
Thing are impossible though..
Little boy: Mommy, I'm gonna jump over the Great Wall of China, using absolutely no technology!!
Mom: But son, that's impossible.
Little boy: Some guy on MMORPG said nothing is impossible!!!
Mom: You're an idiot, kid
*the little boy spends 7 years working, people start to become interested, some decide to stay and bash the kid saying he will never do it. Others are fully determined, but no on ereally knows..Stilll today the little boy tries and tries to jump over the wall*
Things can be impossible, and don't get me wrong, this game is not, but it will be hard. If they keep their word then it will be a success.
PS. This thread was a lil joke (even though it's not that funny) to all you grumpy trolls/fanbois =p..Ehhh i'll get flamed anyway.
__________________________________________________
In memory of Laura "Taera" Genender. Passed away on Aug/13/08 - Rest In Peace; you will not be forgotten
As far as I know, the graphics engine was completely redone over the last few years. You really can't say the engine is 7 years old just bc that's how long it's been in development. Just take a look at the newer pictures and video.
Lotro absolutely sucks btw. Such a shame they neglected the PvP potential it had too.
Not really sure what the point of the thread is, just check the main site.