The bottom line is MMORPG players are getting pickier and pickier. There's more competition, and then theres WoW to take most of the players.
A new MMO needs all the help it can get. Even if it has a solid launch (LOTRO) it can't be too different from WoW (this game lacks depth) are too close to WoW (WoW clone). It needs to have plenty of hype going in (What's tCoS?).
It's really amazing how bad most of the new MMO's have done. Other than WoW no MMO has been able to even beat EQ1's north american 500k subscription peak back in about 2000 i think it was.
Granted there is alot more competition now but there are also a much bigger market being that computers and high speed internet are so much cheaper and more mainstream than 10 years ago. Conventional wisdom is that if a game doesn't get around 150-200k subs using the monthly fee structure then it's not going to make enough to support ongoing development and turn a profit. Of course the cost of making the game plays a big role in that too. If it costs you 75 million to make a game then you obviously have a bigger hole to climb out of.
This game has plenty of hype and interest so if it's good it will do fine even if it doesn't get a million subs. MMO players are desperate for a new game that doesn't suck like so many have lately. You can't make money on hype though. Thats what Vanguard tried to do and if it wasn't for SoE and station pass life support that game would have been shut down 3 months after launch.
The bottom line is MMORPG players are getting pickier and pickier. There's more competition, and then theres WoW to take most of the players.
A new MMO needs all the help it can get. Even if it has a solid launch (LOTRO) it can't be too different from WoW (this game lacks depth) are too close to WoW (WoW clone). It needs to have plenty of hype going in (What's tCoS?).
Hype can backfire too
Hype is all fine and good
-- but overselling features (which are not fully implemented) leads to disappointment and can turn away players due to expectations that were not met.
I think AOC will be fun but I also think thats its *not* going to meet the expectations (hype) that its built.
Comments
The bottom line is MMORPG players are getting pickier and pickier. There's more competition, and then theres WoW to take most of the players.
A new MMO needs all the help it can get. Even if it has a solid launch (LOTRO) it can't be too different from WoW (this game lacks depth) are too close to WoW (WoW clone). It needs to have plenty of hype going in (What's tCoS?).
It's really amazing how bad most of the new MMO's have done. Other than WoW no MMO has been able to even beat EQ1's north american 500k subscription peak back in about 2000 i think it was.
Granted there is alot more competition now but there are also a much bigger market being that computers and high speed internet are so much cheaper and more mainstream than 10 years ago. Conventional wisdom is that if a game doesn't get around 150-200k subs using the monthly fee structure then it's not going to make enough to support ongoing development and turn a profit. Of course the cost of making the game plays a big role in that too. If it costs you 75 million to make a game then you obviously have a bigger hole to climb out of.
This game has plenty of hype and interest so if it's good it will do fine even if it doesn't get a million subs. MMO players are desperate for a new game that doesn't suck like so many have lately. You can't make money on hype though. Thats what Vanguard tried to do and if it wasn't for SoE and station pass life support that game would have been shut down 3 months after launch.
Hype is all fine and good
-- but overselling features (which are not fully implemented) leads to disappointment and can turn away players due to expectations that were not met.
I think AOC will be fun but I also think thats its *not* going to meet the expectations (hype) that its built.
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