Seriously, what was the last successful MMO launch?

chryses

With the mass hype focusing on the launch of AoC and whether it will be a success or failure I started thinking about the more recent 'big' releases. 

Pirates of the Burning Sea - Population is sinking faster than any ship in the game and there is no real mega patch that is going to change a whole lot anytime soon.  Not successful.

Tabula Rasa - Mass hype and population has come and gone.  Enough patches have helped it along and it has turned into a niche type game.  Not successful but has found a gaming space.

Fury - Not played but it was released with a small pop after much talk and I haven't seen any threads about it for ages. Successful...seems not

Vanguard Saga of Heroes - Major issues at launch and heavy rig needed to play.  Population left in droves and its hard to find another living soul.  Not successful.

 

What were the last big releases that are still successful?  WOW, EVE Online?  Its a worrying sign and if AoC does gain a healthy following and more importantly keeps it then it will be breaking the trend.  Stats say otherwise and I hope they are wrong for the sake of the MMO industry.

 

 

Ascension08

LoTRO. Not as "popular", at least on this site, as some of the games you mentioned, but at least it's solid in its niche and it had a good launch.

Gurtelrose

Lord of the Rings Online do well 

Vosen

LOTRO

jarish

Yeah i would say LOTRO..and being number #3  in the NPD reports. Id say it is a success.

Death1942

Lord of the rings had a decent launch.  you cant really ever have a good launch because MMO's are so different to normal games.  they rely on the internet to function (thats 1 thing out of the developers control), they are just as demanding to make as normal games (bugs and other problems will be there at launch), no beta test will EVER fix every problem with a game.  all these factors and more mean that MMO's will never have a successful release.  there will always be a group of players who cant play, a bug or some other problem and that is why there are patches.

chryses

I forgot about Lord of the Rings.  It really is the only MMO that can put its hands up and say they did well enough for the investment put in. 

If AoC and WAR don't work out to be great MMO's then I seriously need to look at changing hobbies

Jumpgate, Earthrise, Stargate and Darkfall are grabbing my interests but I am losing hope....

Tatum

Yes, LOTRO had a smooth launch.  Although, I dont think they got any where near the numbers they were expecting.

Athela

Lord of the Rings Online  

Perfect launch. 

Constant great game updates. 

Mines of Moria in the fall!!!

Czzarre

I wager LOTRO and DAOC were some of the smoothest. I recall WoW having a lot of problems during the first month

daylight01

LOTRO had a very nice launch,shame it didnt continue,but thats another thread...

Cabe2323

Originally posted by Zorndorf


 
Originally posted by jarish


Yeah i would say LOTRO..and being number #3  in the NPD reports. Id say it is a success.

With ... 0.9% of the marketshare ???

 

That's a very small market..

http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html

In Belgium/Netherlands "Bart Smit" LOTRO is in the dust bin at 7 Euro a piece for months already ....

 I remember their slogan last year "One game to rule them all ..."

Maximum was 1.3% of the market during its first 3 months.

That is about 350K worldwide. Since that moment it went to 0.9% in april of this year.

Just another niche game compared to Wow, Runescape, Lineage, even FFX11.

The MMO market at the moment is commercially SO bad that Pirates of the Burtning sea wasn't even launched anymore in the lower countries in Europe. It got cancelled a few weeks ago.

I am convinced Conan will be around the same mark as LOTRO IF they can avoid the technical problems that showed in open Beta and beyond.

 

His chart is wrong.  He guesses at the number based on numerous things.  NPD has a lot better resources then Sir Bruce does and as such they are a lot better set to make statements on how games are performing.  LOTRO according to NPD data for the First Quarter of 2008 (so about a year after the game came out) is the third largest game in NA.  It is beating every game except Runescape and WoW.  Including games like EQ2, EvE, FFXI, etc in the NA marketplace. 

jarish

Originally posted by Zorndorf


 
Originally posted by jarish


Yeah i would say LOTRO..and being number #3  in the NPD reports. Id say it is a success.

With ... 0.9% of the marketshare ???

 

That's a very small market..

http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html

In Belgium/Netherlands "Bart Smit" LOTRO is in the dust bin at 7 Euro a piece for months already ....

 I remember their slogan last year "One game to rule them all ..."

Maximum was 1.3% of the market during its first 3 months.

That is about 350K worldwide. Since that moment it went to 0.9% in april of this year.

Just another niche game compared to Wow, Runescape, Lineage, even FFX11.

The MMO market at the moment is commercially SO bad that Pirates of the Burtning sea wasn't even launched anymore in the lower countries in Europe. It got cancelled a few weeks ago.

I am convinced Conan will be around the same mark as LOTRO IF they can avoid the technical problems that showed in open Beta and beyond.

 

Yeah I wouldn't believe much of what mmogchart puts up there. Those are guesses. And if you want to look at thier charts and NPD findings I think you will find if LOTRO is above FFXI then it is over 500k and not at 150k like the chart says.

Gammit100

Definitely LOTRO.  Hopefully Conan will launch well, but from what I've read, it'll be rough if you don't have a high-end machine.

When will developers learn to scale better?

WOW does it well...

nethervoid

I want to believe what I hear about LOTRO being this game that succeeded, but I know a lot of MMO gamers personally (50+) and not one of them play that game or ever did.  Just about every one of them has played WoW in some way shape or time.  Many have played EQ.  A few have played EvE.  A couple have even played Guild Wars...lol.

Not a single one of them has played LOTRO.

'One game to fool them all' is probably a better motto.

jakin

If you don't feel comfortable with these stats: your source doesn't even include Lineage 1 or 2. And EVE on line does indeed have about 400 K subs.

Actually - no EVE doesn't.  They just crossed 240K a couple months back.  EVE's numbers are publically available and specifically provided to MMOchart so you can be sure that at least those numbers are bang on.

Your other observation is very true though.  LOTRO has not expanded server numbers since launch.  That doesn't indicate a game that's retaining players and attracting new ones.  It's a game that's churning through a lot of players.

The only reason I'm posting though is mainly to laugh at the people that don't believe MMOchart - but yet put all their stock in a simple numbered list put out by NPD (which states relative values no less rather than hard data).  They're both using the same type of research and the same potential sources - there just seems to be some kind of unfounded hatred of MMOchart here.

Silverwatch

i remember DAoC didnt have any problems really, it wasnt really advertised as much as other games but i thought that launch was very good

zball

there has not been much to challage WOW.  But this year two of the best MMOS are comming out AOC and WAR.  If anyone can challage WOW eather of these could take crown away .   

Cabe2323

Originally posted by Zorndorf


 
Originally posted by jarish


Yeah I wouldn't believe much of what mmogchart puts up there. Those are guesses. And if you want to look at thier charts and NPD findings I think you will find if LOTRO is above FFXI then it is over 500k and not at 150k like the chart says.

 

MMOGCHART is very clear in their bimonthly stats: and :

0.9 % is about 230.000 subscribers (total being 25.000.000 +).

1.3 % was the highest LOTRO figure obtained in these charts. meaning about 330.000.

If you don't believe the numbers of mmogchart: look at the number of English EU servers of LOTRO: Exactly 5 ! (4 german servers and a french one). The same as launch BTW.

Last time I wanted to check on Wow, I believe it was in the order of 250 servers for Europe alone.

Now I am not saying LOTRO can compete with Wow in numbers but the game is now sold in our country at 7 Euro in one of the biggest chains and after a month still masses can be found in the waste baskets.

So LOTRO was certainly not a BIG succces.

If you don't feel comfortable with these stats: your source doesn't even include Lineage 1 or 2. And EVE on line does indeed have about 400 K subs.

 

Once again he basis his information on LOTRO on Guesses since he doesn't have any official information.  NPD on the other hand has access to the amount of boxes sold from all the major retailers.  Plus LOTRO has better server technology then World of Warcraft does.  So while no it can't handle 10 million people on the servers they currently have no on is claiming they can.  No one is even claiming they have 1 million subscribers since that is the number Runescape has and LOTRO was behind Runescape in subscribers. 

LOTRO is most likely the 3rd or 4th most successful MMO of all time in North America. 

You mention lineage 1 and 2 but they were never successful in NA.  City of Heroes is the most successful NCsoft game in North America.  Lineage 1 currently has around 7K subscribers in all of NA and Lineage 2 has around 70K subscribers in all of NA (according to NCsofts financial records from the end of 2007ish) 

 

EvE has never hit 400K subs.  They broke 200K just recently and I think are sitting around 240Kish currently. 

Gishgeron

Originally posted by zball


there has not been much to challage WOW.  But this year two of the best MMOS are comming out AOC and WAR.  If anyone can challage WOW eather of these could take crown away .   

  I've heard this before.

  The problem is that we keep expecting them to.  The reason this is a problem is that it sets a standard in our minds, and that standard is one that cannot possibly reach fruition.  This is compounded when the developers begin taking steps to equal our expectations.  So, instead of JUST focusing on good games...we are focusing on one good game and forcing, by extension, the developers to make their games similar to WoW with some mild improvements to MEET that expectation.

  No one is treading new ground, because we keep looking for a WoW killer...when the very act of doing that ensures nothing but WoW clones.  We've already set the standard of gameplay that WoW has on some kind of throne, which is fine.  But its also not doing us any favors by re-asserting that factoid each time a new game concept is open.  It forces them to MAKE a WoW killer.

Majinash

Now I never played the game myself, but isn't City of Heroes/Villans doing pretty well? I only hear good things about it, and heard the launch went pretty well.

Volkmar

"

The Lord of the Rings Online (Accuracy Rating:

Launched on April 24, 2007, LotrO has been a big success for Turbine, winning several awards and garnering many positive reviews. While exact subscriber numbers have never been officially released, in August 2007 Turbine claimed LotRO was the second largest MMORPG developed in North America. This leaves out games like RuneScape, Dofus, and EVE Online; essentially, Turbine was indicating that the game had more current subscribers than EQ or EQ II, but less than World of Warcraft. Based on this statement, I estimate that as of August 2007 LotRO had approximately 200,000 subscribers. Inside sources place the number of active subscribers at 150,000 as of December 2007. http://www.lotro.com/ "

B – This indicates that while some of the data points shown may be official, a substantial number come from press articles, unproven inside sources, or other indirect means. The numbers may not be exact for the MMOG in question, but are certainly in the ballpark."

 

The difference between the two is that the NPD list is just that, a list, while mmogchart actually gives you some data over time and some commentaries on it. "Inside sources" are named here, now he does not claim the figures to be 100% accurate, but a more than 200% difference seems exagerated. Note "Developed" in North America, NOT published in North America, so cutting out a lot of titles made in Europe or Asia.

GreenChaos

Originally posted by Vosen


LOTRO

Ditto - and don't forget about guild wars, that was after WoW.  

Cephus404

What I never get, from a player's perspective, is why everyone wants to unseat WoW?  What's the point of having a massive game with lots of annoying, obnoxious, immature kids playing?  Anyone who unseats WoW is going to suffer from the same lowest-common-denominator problems that WoW does, full of kids who couldn't spell if their lives depended on it and have no clue what actual roleplaying is.

I don't want WoW unseated, I want all the idiots sent there so that the rest of us can play in peace.

chryses

Cant disagree with any of the posts but just to be more specific about my meaning about 'successful'...a game that has launched and has become a main player in the market place.  I don't care if it has 9 million subscribers, more interested in a game that is growing and the player base is really enjoying.  The only ones I can think of are:

EVE

GW

WOW

Maybe 1-2 more...

it seems I am constantly getting excited about big releases and how they are going to change this gaming genre.  (Just look at the 'games in development' bottom left, a bunch of great titles or so it seems).  Then with each release its just another...mmaaahh...its ok... has 1-2 great features that will keep me amused for 2 months.

 

I don't even care if AoC doesn't do it for me.  However I do care that its successful because the MMO industry needs another long term contender so it shows potential investors that it can still work.  With the multi million dollar investments being thrown around on products like PotBS etc.  It could really damage the potential for 'big' titles being developed in the future.  If I had 50 million dollars and someone asked me about using  all of it on a new MMO title I would probably say no and I am a gaming enthusiast!

Diversity in the game is the key for me.  Lately all the 'big' titles being released have 1 outstanding feature, normally combat, and they neglected all the RPG elements such as crafting, housing, exploring and community therefore capturing an audience for a short period before withering up and dying.

 

 

Adamantine

Originally posted by Gammit100


Definitely LOTRO.  Hopefully Conan will launch well, but from what I've read, it'll be rough if you don't have a high-end machine.
When will developers learn to scale better?
WOW does it well...

Are you serious ? WoW can be played on 6 years old computers ... scaling ?!? It has horribly low requirements !