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xfire shows AoC numbers decreasing :(

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  • SouldrainerSouldrainer Member Posts: 1,857
    Originally posted by kaishi00


    "subscribership for World of Warcraft"
    my god. you even quoted it yourself, jesus christ.



     

    DOES NOT SAY ACTIVE subscribership.

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  • redOrcredOrc Member Posts: 100

    According to Xfire, Guild Wars, a 3 yeas old game is played more than conan.

     

  • Ender4Ender4 Member UncommonPosts: 2,247
    Originally posted by Souldrainer


     


    When WOW made their statement, the wording was VERY similar to FC's press release.  Let me dig it up for you.

     

     

     

    [quoteIRVINE, Calif. -- January 22, 2008 -- Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. announced today that subscribership for World of Warcraft®, its award-winning massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG), has continued to climb, recently passing 10 million worldwide.[/quote]

    http://www.blizzard.com/us/press/080122.html
     
    Nowhere in Blizzard's statement does it say active subs.



     

    World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules.

     

     

    They defined what they meant by a subscriber right in the press release.  They also called them subscribers.  Just carefully read the way the funcom one is worded.

     

    More than 700,000 gamers have now signed up for an age of conan account. 

    Stop and analyze it for a second and tell me what about that sentence makes you think that it is 700k active accounts and that it doesn't include cancelled ones.  If they had 700k active accounts it would be worded like there are now 700k players subscribed to AOC.  The purpose of wording it the way they did is to get people who don't read it closely to think the game is doing better than it is.  Same exactly marketing ploy they used by giving out copies shipped instead of copies sold.

    To put it another way, my friend who pre-ordered the game, decided not to keep playing after EA and returned the game signed up for an account.  He never subscribed to the game. I cancelled my account,  I am no longer subscribed to the game, but I did sign up for an account.  Notice the difference?

    It isn't worth arguing anymore if you don't see it at this point but they do not have 700k subscribers and there is ample evidence that the player base is shrinking and not growing.  That doesn't mean the game is doomed or anything, in fact it is normal for most new mmorpgs.

  • kaishi00kaishi00 Member Posts: 299

    I mean shit, it doesn't even matter about the wording, a little f*cking common sense would be sufficient here. Ok, so they sold 700k boxes. They say they have 700k active accounts? You're saying they're having a 100% retention rate? Right, ok.

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582
    Originally posted by Ender4



    It isn't worth arguing anymore if you don't see it at this point but they do not have 700k subscribers and there is ample evidence that the player base is shrinking and not growing.  That doesn't mean the game is doomed or anything, in fact it is normal for most new mmorpgs.

     

    If todays patch is any indication, then this game will fall flat on it's nose...not because the game itself sucks...but because Funcom as a company has no idea how to run an MMO

    Period

    As to Xfire, over the last two weeks, AoC always stayed on the chart, even on patch day.

    Today, it does not even list in the top 10.

    (PS: Check my sig...when a 3 year old game is more entertaining, something is amiss)

     

    Sad!

  • SouldrainerSouldrainer Member Posts: 1,857
    Originally posted by Ender4

    Originally posted by Souldrainer


     


    When WOW made their statement, the wording was VERY similar to FC's press release.  Let me dig it up for you.

     

     

     

    [quoteIRVINE, Calif. -- January 22, 2008 -- Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. announced today that subscribership for World of Warcraft®, its award-winning massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG), has continued to climb, recently passing 10 million worldwide.[/quote]

    http://www.blizzard.com/us/press/080122.html
     
    Nowhere in Blizzard's statement does it say active subs.



     

    World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules.

     

     

    They defined what they meant by a subscriber right in the press release.  They also called them subscribers.  Just carefully read the way the funcom one is worded.

     

    More than 700,000 gamers have now signed up for an age of conan account. 

    Stop and analyze it for a second and tell me what about that sentence makes you think that it is 700k active accounts and that it doesn't include cancelled ones.  If they had 700k active accounts it would be worded like there are now 700k players subscribed to AOC.  The purpose of wording it the way they did is to get people who don't read it closely to think the game is doing better than it is.  Same exactly marketing ploy they used by giving out copies shipped instead of copies sold.

    It isn't worth arguing anymore if you don't see it at this point but they do not have 700k subscribers and there is ample evidence that the player base is shrinking and not growing.  That doesn't mean the game is doomed or anything, in fact it is normal for most new mmorpgs.



     

    Even though Blizzard did post a clear definition, you'd be surprised how many, many sites and gamers questioned them.  It seems that in this day and age, nobody can ever state a point definitively enough to please the mob. 

    And yes, I do agree and always have thought that FC's wording is very poor.  However, you have to consider the timing of the press release.  700K have signed up for an account... how?  The ONLY way to get an AOC account is to buy the game.

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  • buffordbufford Member Posts: 36

    We live in an age where mmo's are pumped out at an incredible rate. Good name mmo's of all styles of gameplay. I don't like AOC for several reasons, I don't play it anymore. But, the only way to find that out is to "buy it an try it".  That is the age of mmo's we're in atm. People buy the mmo's as fast as they are put out, try it, either like it or scream about how horrible it is and move on to the next, hoping it will satisfy whatever it is they need from an mmo.

    Thats why you see large numbers of bought copies, swarming servers for several months then a decline until the mmo reaches its equilibrium.  There is nothing wrong with it or negative about sub declines a few months after release, its simply the players figuring out that the game just doesn't suit their taste. However, in the case of the 5 people left in SWG playing hide and seek.....thats a different story

     

  • kaishi00kaishi00 Member Posts: 299

    Souldrainer, no one is arguing that they didn't sell 700k boxes, I'm sure they did. We're arguing there's not 700k ACTIVE SUBSCRIBERS.

  • ratariarataria Member Posts: 93
    Originally posted by openedge1

    Originally posted by Ender4



    It isn't worth arguing anymore if you don't see it at this point but they do not have 700k subscribers and there is ample evidence that the player base is shrinking and not growing.  That doesn't mean the game is doomed or anything, in fact it is normal for most new mmorpgs.

     

    If todays patch is any indication, then this game will fall flat on it's nose...not because the game itself sucks...but because Funcom as a company has no idea how to run an MMO

    Period

    As to Xfire, over the last two weeks, AoC always stayed on the chart, even on patch day.

    Today, it does not even list in the top 10.

    (PS: Check my sig...when a 3 year old game is more entertaining, something is amiss)

     

    Sad!

     

    ahh even you start thinking that funcom sucks and all they do is hype. they should sell the game to turbine, at least there is devs that could fix the mess. with funcom devs aoc is dead.

  • ethionethion Member UncommonPosts: 2,888

    Souldrainer, not sure if english is your primary language so perhaps you are misunderstanding something in the press releases..  Let me give you an example to help clarify some things.

    Lets assume a new game launchs on monday.

    The company shipped 5 copies of the game on monday.  (press release, company shipped 5 copies of game)

    On tuesday you, my brother and I go to the story and we both buy three copies.  (press release company sold three copies of the game)

    Wednesday You and I both sign up online and register our game (press release, two people have signed up for the game)

    My brother signs up for the game on Thursday, I canceled the game on thursday.  Your cousin buys the game.

    Here are some possible press releases based on this data.

    1. Press release on friday, 3 people signed up for the game.  or

    2. Press release on friday, game has 2 subscribers or

    3. Press release on friday, game has sold 4 copies.

    4. Press release on friday, game has 3 accounts

    5. Press release on friday, game has 2 active accounts.

     

    So the issue is that funcoms press release is example 1.  While wow's press release is number 2.

    You see while I did sign up for the game after canceling I am no longer a subscriber but I did sign up.

    This same thing could be applied to accounts.  Again even though I've canceled my subscription I do still have an account.  My account is just currently inactive.

    Hope that helps.

    ---
    Ethion

  • LydonLydon Member UncommonPosts: 2,938
    Originally posted by hdnine


    You base your statistics on people using Xfire?!? Makes we wonder how many other that are playing - not using this program. I have never used it, not sure what it does or what it is good for so this doesn't say jack...

    It's like take a random sample of people and gathering statistics from it. Almost like a survey. Seems pretty valid to me and emulates most facts (WoW being the top, GW being second etc.)

  • ethionethion Member UncommonPosts: 2,888

    Xfire is kinda like a political poll.  It is a sampling of gamers some percentage of which play aoc.  So as the sample of gamers trend so does the bulk of gamers assuming the sample is sufficiently large and sufficiently random.

    As size decreases or randomness decreases the accuracy of the poll decreases.

     

    ---
    Ethion

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582
    Originally posted by rataria

    Originally posted by openedge1

    Originally posted by Ender4



    It isn't worth arguing anymore if you don't see it at this point but they do not have 700k subscribers and there is ample evidence that the player base is shrinking and not growing.  That doesn't mean the game is doomed or anything, in fact it is normal for most new mmorpgs.

     

    If todays patch is any indication, then this game will fall flat on it's nose...not because the game itself sucks...but because Funcom as a company has no idea how to run an MMO

    Period

    As to Xfire, over the last two weeks, AoC always stayed on the chart, even on patch day.

    Today, it does not even list in the top 10.

    (PS: Check my sig...when a 3 year old game is more entertaining, something is amiss)

     

    Sad!

     

    ahh even you start thinking that funcom sucks and all they do is hype. they should sell the game to turbine, at least there is devs that could fix the mess. with funcom devs aoc is dead.

    Thats right...lets give the game to the Company that brought us Asherons Call 2 and DDO..

    No thanks...really bad suggestion

  • ethionethion Member UncommonPosts: 2,888

    My vote is to sell it to soe and add it to station pass :P  Guess thats cause I like station pass.

    ---
    Ethion

  • LydonLydon Member UncommonPosts: 2,938

    And Sony just have the most awesome reputation when it comes to updates!

  • ZeGerman1942ZeGerman1942 Member Posts: 199

    Why would Funcom sell the game to SOE to be added to the Station Pass?

    Funcom already had one MMO failure and managed, through persistency and a solid (if small) fan base to create a profit out of it.

    Age of Conan cost a lot more than AO, but it sold a lot of boxes, it will have a higher subscription base than AO and it will, eventually break even and perhaps create a profit. If expansion packs are good and bugs are fixed as well as promised and missing features implemented, there will be enough people playing to generate money.

    Will it be a screaming success in the scale of what was hyped? no i don't think so.

    Will it be an utter failure and end up like Vanguard? No i don't think so either.

    Funcom will not need to sell the game - they will eventually break even and might turn a profit.

    The only thing that they need to do is realise that they fucked up 2 games now and they are working on a 3rd and they can't afford to make the same mistakes again.

  • Ender4Ender4 Member UncommonPosts: 2,247

    Don't get me wrong, xfire is nowhere near perfect either~.  It is just the largest sample of players I can get my hands on easily.

    The 4 servers I census all have populations falling about 10% per week.  xfire shows about the same, 10-15% drop per week.  I wish they would release real numbers somewhere else but there just isn't anywhere else to look.

    You can use xfire for a general trend and check server populations at prime time and if they both say the same thing then it is most likely the truth.  In the US at least the game is losing players faster than it is gaining them.

  • WarblazeWarblaze Member UncommonPosts: 178

    as for Xfire, it seems AOC is going down faster then a five dollar hooker...  Yesterday it dropped from the 7th to the 8th place. Today it has dropped another 2 spots and now stands on #10.

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582
    Originally posted by Warblaze


    as for Xfire, it seems AOC is going down faster then a five dollar hooker...  Yesterday it dropped from the 7th to the 8th place. Today it has dropped another 2 spots and now stands on #10.

    Yea, they are screwed again today. 5 hour loss for another patch to fix the patch, that was the patch before that, which crashed the patch, that was suppose to be the patch for stabilty

    I patch that!

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by Warblaze


    as for Xfire, it seems AOC is going down faster then a five dollar hooker...  Yesterday it dropped from the 7th to the 8th place. Today it has dropped another 2 spots and now stands on #10.

     

    interestingly enough the box sales are still going strong, #12 at Amazon today in PC game sales. You think it is  falling fast on XFire now, wait till the box sales drop off.

    I miss DAoC

  • RaztorRaztor Member Posts: 670
    Originally posted by ethion


    My vote is to sell it to soe and add it to station pass :P  Guess thats cause I like station pass.

     

    Holy crap, not even Jackdog is cruel enough to wish that fate to any game.

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel Member LegendaryPosts: 12,197
    Originally posted by Raztor

    Originally posted by ethion


    My vote is to sell it to soe and add it to station pass :P  Guess thats cause I like station pass.

     

    Holy crap, not even Jackdog is cruel enough to wish that fate to any game.



     

    Hells yeah, lets give AoC a chance to be Smedley'd!



  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945
    Originally posted by Souldrainer 
    700K have signed up for an account... how?  The ONLY way to get an AOC account is to buy the game.

     

    Beta accounts are still accounts that were created without purchasing the game.

    Pre-orders created accounts without purchasing the game and only putting down a deposit.

    To be completely open minded about the exact phrasing they don't even say game accounts let alone boxes sold.  As far as we know they could be talking about every single type of account from game, beta and forum that they allowed people to create. 

     

    No where does the 700k statement clearly state it is game accounts post launch, not does it state games sold.  That is all information that Funcom wants the readers to assume. 

     

    I'm sure AoC will hit 700k copies sold and it might be there right now, but that carefully crafted statement by Funcom is vague on purpose.  If they had sold 700k copies I'm certain they would have said that, but they didn't.

     

     

     

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by Raztor

    Originally posted by ethion


    My vote is to sell it to soe and add it to station pass :P  Guess thats cause I like station pass.

     

    Holy crap, not even Jackdog is cruel enough to wish that fate to any game.

    Can't do any worse that FC is doing. EQII is still an OK game, I hear even Vanguard has improved since Sigil sold out. If they would price Station pass at 25 a month with free clients and add in AoC I would pay it probably.

    I miss DAoC

  • GorillaGorilla Member UncommonPosts: 2,235

    Aren't they starting to honour buddy keys? Another way to boost the figures.

This discussion has been closed.