Nothing will kill WoW except WoW itself. Until they discontinue it, or really, really screw it up nobody is going to dethrone it, especially not WAR. Why play a giant WoW BG when you can play the whole damn game?
WAR will never gain as many or more subs than WoW. Never. Period.
Darkfall is never coming out, you can't have 200k subs on vapor. They have about *6* months to announce beta, go through with beta, announce a release date, and go through with a release date. Absolutely not happening, they haven't even announced who is publishing it yet, let alone going gold.
Originally posted by charris1980 3 mil users more actually. the expansion coming out is a big factor. in 2 years you're going to see maybe 1-2 more expansions.
I'm sorry, but I have to contend this since this is the MAIN reason I have quit WoW and moved on. In the last 3 years WoW has released 1 expansion. They will be pushing 4 years by the time WotlK comes out. In 2 years I see maybe 1 if any expansions being released for WoW, based on their current expansion release track record, which IMHO is absolutely atrocious.
Ok, other than this one contention I have no other beef, so carry on.
Originally posted by Irish I'm fairly certain anything that brings something new to the table is going to get some love. I hope Warhammer does well. If it does, then Blizz will have to step up and put out even better content. I hope WoW does get slapped around by competition, that way we will see something like the U.S. and Soviet race to the moon. The "moon" being some amazing video game holy grail that all of us have somehow overlooked all this time. My theory which very well may be incorrect is that the majority of WoW players are waiting to jump ship. Wow is a solid MMO, but I think there aren't many people sticking around for reasons other than that all the gamer buddies they have play it and they already have so much time invested in it. However hard the hammer falls (crappy pun intended), I'll be happy that someone is at least attempting to put up a fight. Most of the games coming out right now are like little pebbles being thrown at WoW. I think AoC was a step in the right direction, but long term, it won't have the power to stand against WoW and WAR. Interesting post. Later people! Maybe I'll say something again in another year or so...
Awesome Post, I completely agree! AoC came out and I jumped the WoW ship since I was bored out of my frigging mind. Lack of content will do that. But I am chomping at the bit for teh big rock to be thrown, and I really hope its WAR!
Earthrise should be in there somewhere. If it is actually released it could prove an underground success by attracting all the pissed and disgruntled former SWG players.
But seriously, i dont think much will change with WAR. it will come out, people will like it for a month, then it goes the way of most new mmos and has a steady sub count that comes no where close to WoW.
i love grabbing statistics out of thin air and speculating,
*grabs a cape and a crystal ball*
lets see...
by summer 2010
9/10 MMO players have played/are playing WoW
SOE finally shuts down SWG
AoC continues to trot along slowly getting more players
Vanguard finally becomes a proper MMO after they iron out most of the bugs and the performance issues
PoTBS change PvP yet again in a vain attempt to keep their player base
CoX finally has some competition and finally starts to spice up their game
several new MMO's are announced for the PS3 and Square Enix realises that maybe their game is (slightly) dated
Runescape gets a graphics overhaul in late 08 only to boost the requirements so much, half their player base cant play.
WAR is released and, like AoC, holds peoples attention for a few weeks before they trickle back to their own games.
Blizzard finally reveal their new MMO. release date set for 2014 (they feel its a lucky date)
LOTRO continues to be ignored yet gains more population, the world has increased so dramatically in size it becomes the largest MMO world in the market
EQ, Planetside, DAOC, DnD online and Ultima online finally accept they have been around for too long after out living their creators. they shutdown only to be replaced by follow up titles in an attempt to bleed more money from the users.
Darkfall speculates it will be ready by 2011 with open beta starting "in the near future". Duke Nukem Forever releases a press statement shortly afterwards slamming Darkfall for their constant delays and lack of communication with its fanbase.
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds -Solid non level based game -Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
Here is my prediction two years from now, Summer of 2010... World of Warcraft: 9 Million
7 Million Asia
1 Million USA
1 Million Europe
Warhammer: 4 Million
2 Million USA
1 Million Europe
1 Million Asia
Other Predictions..
Age of Conan
300k total
Darkfall (yes it will be released)
200k total
That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many months now, and currently Warhammer has a buzz that AoC and others never had. The US market is dying for something new Of the current 10 million WoW has, 7 million of them are the Asian market. The remaining USA and Europe market will be pulled away. I listed some other "notables", so please dont ask why I didn't include "X" game. I think the MMO market is starving for something new so that's why I feel Darkfall at 200k will be somewhat of a success. I didnt list LOTRO or Vanguard because I think their numbers will stay the same. The main point here is, I think if Warhammer turns out to be everything that is promised, the US market will jump on it.
Thoughts?
Because Warhammer is a family friendly, casual friendly game that will appeal to non-gamers therefore drawing all these people playing wow?
Sorry, but no.
And if you came up with these numbers, most likely you had to have a process other than throwing a dart at a board. So please let us know this process.
You are right.
There are 5 reasons why this is not gonna happen.
1-Not a family friendly game ( you already got this one )
3-System requirement is not as low as WoW, till now is even higher than Aion.
4-Players that are used to WoW and enjoy WoW will have no major reason to jump to Warhammer as WoW will be even more expanded at War release
Nothing will kill WoW except WoW itself. Until they discontinue it, or really, really screw it up nobody is going to dethrone it, especially not WAR. Why play a giant WoW BG when you can play the whole damn game? WAR will never gain as many or more subs than WoW. Never. Period. Darkfall is never coming out, you can't have 200k subs on vapor. They have about *6* months to announce beta, go through with beta, announce a release date, and go through with a release date. Absolutely not happening, they haven't even announced who is publishing it yet, let alone going gold.
@Curiindi LotRO won't dip down below 100k because of the Tolkien fanbase. WoW @ 600k... Yeah... Right...
Blame the understatements on the darts - just kidding!
It's interesting that among those guesses the WoW and LotRO numbers were the ones that I really gave a thought about. I ended up lowering both numbers - this is what I was thinking:
I had LotRO at 75,000 before I decided to include some bias. I felt that LotRO has 125,000 subscribers in US right now, that it will drop down to 100,000 next summer, and that it will continue to drop to 75,000 by summer 2010 in face of some new (hopefully great) titles. Then came the bias - as much as I like LotRO, I don't think that MoM or later volumes will meet expectations if the main idea for all of them is to follow the books and fill up the rest of Middle Earth. I agree that the Tolkien fanbase is very strong (possibly 2/3 of LotRO players are also avid fans of the books or movies), but even that population will fall into random player drift.
I also included some bias after my original 900,000 guess for WoW. I think the original WoW sold over 3,000,000 copies in US and anything that includes BC sold over 2,000,000 copies. I don't think that WotLK will sell over 1,500,000 copies in US and that there will be another expansion released before summer 2010. With that said, I guess that WoW will drop below 1,000,000 by summer 2010. In addition, I also guess that SC2 will be out before summer 2010 and that 1/3 of WoW players will play SC2 (non-subscription) instead. I agree that only Blizzard can cause drastic decrease in WoW subscriber numbers.
All that is just guess work - I think you are right!
This is a meaningless thread. No backup, no evidence, no stable trend, no pattern. There is no knowledge to where gamers are going to migrate and what will cause such a migration.
This is a meaningless thread. No backup, no evidence, no stable trend, no pattern. There is no knowledge to where gamers are going to migrate and what will cause such a migration.
WTF you can't post a logical response.. its against the rules somewhere.
I am in WAR beta.. I like to beta things. I don't buy most games I beta.. WAR is one I won't buy.
I honestly can't see WAR having more subs in the US than WoW.. ever but... I never thought that "Caveman" would be a good idea for a TV series either.. *ponder* oh wait..
Ya it could happen... but you need to say "I predict that two years from now:" (insert random remak)
Then you can sell your prediction services.. solve "cold case" crimes etc
Oh and last I heard 50% of the WoW subs come from Asia.. so where is this 70% are in asia coming from?
I've played the beta as well and on what I've seen I really can't imagine WAR beating WOW subs. However I guess they've got a bit of time to improve things, but basicly WAR feels like playing WOW with different graphics.
MMO developers seem to be scared to do anything but copy WOW and change one or two features. In order to beat WOW a game is gonna need to be polished to a mirror shine, easy to get into, and different enough to catch the imagination of the masses, and I don't think WAR will do that.
Anybody who thinks Warhammer will have more subs than WoW is insane. The mmorpg market is actually pretty small but people get thrown off when they see numbers like ten million WoW subscribers. Only a fraction of WoW's playerbase is the type of player that plays multiple mmorpgs. A huge group of people who play WoW are very happy with it and not looking to switch any time soon.
Anybody who thinks Warhammer will have more subs than WoW is insane. The mmorpg market is actually pretty small but people get thrown off when they see numbers like ten million WoW subscribers. Only a fraction of WoW's playerbase is the type of player that plays multiple mmorpgs. A huge group of people who play WoW are very happy with it and not looking to switch any time soon.
wow has 20-25% of the mmo market so the mmo market is about 40 million
This is a meaningless thread. No backup, no evidence, no stable trend, no pattern. There is no knowledge to where gamers are going to migrate and what will cause such a migration.
WTF you can't post a logical response.. its against the rules somewhere.
I am in WAR beta.. I like to beta things. I don't buy most games I beta.. WAR is one I won't buy.
I honestly can't see WAR having more subs in the US than WoW.. ever but... I never thought that "Caveman" would be a good idea for a TV series either.. *ponder* oh wait..
Ya it could happen... but you need to say "I predict that two years from now:" (insert random remak)
Then you can sell your prediction services.. solve "cold case" crimes etc
Oh and last I heard 50% of the WoW subs come from Asia.. so where is this 70% are in asia coming from?
Lol there is no logic at all here... It's a melting pot of meaningless and non-existent numbers. You proved my point well.
Very low budget MMORPG's such as Darkfall have never been successful, and probably never will.
Eve Online
They were low-budget, and I'd call them successful.
(I don't know what Eve's budget was but IMHO the Darkfall developers have probably flushed more money down the toilet with their 6+ years of development)
I don''t really know when Humankind will die out but i''m guessing about 6 years before WOW. -BarCrow
Comments
Nothing will kill WoW except WoW itself. Until they discontinue it, or really, really screw it up nobody is going to dethrone it, especially not WAR. Why play a giant WoW BG when you can play the whole damn game?
WAR will never gain as many or more subs than WoW. Never. Period.
Darkfall is never coming out, you can't have 200k subs on vapor. They have about *6* months to announce beta, go through with beta, announce a release date, and go through with a release date. Absolutely not happening, they haven't even announced who is publishing it yet, let alone going gold.
@Curiindi
LotRO won't dip down below 100k because of the Tolkien fanbase.
WoW @ 600k... Yeah... Right...
|Mortal Online|Gnostaria|
I'm sorry, but I have to contend this since this is the MAIN reason I have quit WoW and moved on. In the last 3 years WoW has released 1 expansion. They will be pushing 4 years by the time WotlK comes out. In 2 years I see maybe 1 if any expansions being released for WoW, based on their current expansion release track record, which IMHO is absolutely atrocious.
Ok, other than this one contention I have no other beef, so carry on.
It's called projecting OP, what you are doing, and mostly the rest of "your" posse.
Awesome Post, I completely agree! AoC came out and I jumped the WoW ship since I was bored out of my frigging mind. Lack of content will do that. But I am chomping at the bit for teh big rock to be thrown, and I really hope its WAR!
Earthrise should be in there somewhere. If it is actually released it could prove an underground success by attracting all the pissed and disgruntled former SWG players.
You guys got it all wrong.
Runescape 3: 18 million
But seriously, i dont think much will change with WAR. it will come out, people will like it for a month, then it goes the way of most new mmos and has a steady sub count that comes no where close to WoW.
March on! - Lets Invade Pekopon
i love grabbing statistics out of thin air and speculating,
*grabs a cape and a crystal ball*
lets see...
by summer 2010
9/10 MMO players have played/are playing WoW
SOE finally shuts down SWG
AoC continues to trot along slowly getting more players
Vanguard finally becomes a proper MMO after they iron out most of the bugs and the performance issues
PoTBS change PvP yet again in a vain attempt to keep their player base
CoX finally has some competition and finally starts to spice up their game
several new MMO's are announced for the PS3 and Square Enix realises that maybe their game is (slightly) dated
Runescape gets a graphics overhaul in late 08 only to boost the requirements so much, half their player base cant play.
WAR is released and, like AoC, holds peoples attention for a few weeks before they trickle back to their own games.
Blizzard finally reveal their new MMO. release date set for 2014 (they feel its a lucky date)
LOTRO continues to be ignored yet gains more population, the world has increased so dramatically in size it becomes the largest MMO world in the market
EQ, Planetside, DAOC, DnD online and Ultima online finally accept they have been around for too long after out living their creators. they shutdown only to be replaced by follow up titles in an attempt to bleed more money from the users.
Darkfall speculates it will be ready by 2011 with open beta starting "in the near future". Duke Nukem Forever releases a press statement shortly afterwards slamming Darkfall for their constant delays and lack of communication with its fanbase.
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds
-Solid non level based game
-Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
Because Warhammer is a family friendly, casual friendly game that will appeal to non-gamers therefore drawing all these people playing wow?
Sorry, but no.
And if you came up with these numbers, most likely you had to have a process other than throwing a dart at a board. So please let us know this process.
You are right.
There are 5 reasons why this is not gonna happen.
1-Not a family friendly game ( you already got this one )
3-System requirement is not as low as WoW, till now is even higher than Aion.
4-Players that are used to WoW and enjoy WoW will have no major reason to jump to Warhammer as WoW will be even more expanded at War release
5-Cant talk about it.
...
Blame the understatements on the darts - just kidding!
It's interesting that among those guesses the WoW and LotRO numbers were the ones that I really gave a thought about. I ended up lowering both numbers - this is what I was thinking:
I had LotRO at 75,000 before I decided to include some bias. I felt that LotRO has 125,000 subscribers in US right now, that it will drop down to 100,000 next summer, and that it will continue to drop to 75,000 by summer 2010 in face of some new (hopefully great) titles. Then came the bias - as much as I like LotRO, I don't think that MoM or later volumes will meet expectations if the main idea for all of them is to follow the books and fill up the rest of Middle Earth. I agree that the Tolkien fanbase is very strong (possibly 2/3 of LotRO players are also avid fans of the books or movies), but even that population will fall into random player drift.
I also included some bias after my original 900,000 guess for WoW. I think the original WoW sold over 3,000,000 copies in US and anything that includes BC sold over 2,000,000 copies. I don't think that WotLK will sell over 1,500,000 copies in US and that there will be another expansion released before summer 2010. With that said, I guess that WoW will drop below 1,000,000 by summer 2010. In addition, I also guess that SC2 will be out before summer 2010 and that 1/3 of WoW players will play SC2 (non-subscription) instead. I agree that only Blizzard can cause drastic decrease in WoW subscriber numbers.
All that is just guess work - I think you are right!
This is a meaningless thread. No backup, no evidence, no stable trend, no pattern. There is no knowledge to where gamers are going to migrate and what will cause such a migration.
WTF you can't post a logical response.. its against the rules somewhere.
I am in WAR beta.. I like to beta things. I don't buy most games I beta.. WAR is one I won't buy.
I honestly can't see WAR having more subs in the US than WoW.. ever but... I never thought that "Caveman" would be a good idea for a TV series either.. *ponder* oh wait..
Ya it could happen... but you need to say "I predict that two years from now:" (insert random remak)
Then you can sell your prediction services.. solve "cold case" crimes etc
Oh and last I heard 50% of the WoW subs come from Asia.. so where is this 70% are in asia coming from?
I've played the beta as well and on what I've seen I really can't imagine WAR beating WOW subs. However I guess they've got a bit of time to improve things, but basicly WAR feels like playing WOW with different graphics.
MMO developers seem to be scared to do anything but copy WOW and change one or two features. In order to beat WOW a game is gonna need to be polished to a mirror shine, easy to get into, and different enough to catch the imagination of the masses, and I don't think WAR will do that.
Anybody who thinks Warhammer will have more subs than WoW is insane. The mmorpg market is actually pretty small but people get thrown off when they see numbers like ten million WoW subscribers. Only a fraction of WoW's playerbase is the type of player that plays multiple mmorpgs. A huge group of people who play WoW are very happy with it and not looking to switch any time soon.
wow has 20-25% of the mmo market so the mmo market is about 40 million
March on! - Lets Invade Pekopon
WTF you can't post a logical response.. its against the rules somewhere.
I am in WAR beta.. I like to beta things. I don't buy most games I beta.. WAR is one I won't buy.
I honestly can't see WAR having more subs in the US than WoW.. ever but... I never thought that "Caveman" would be a good idea for a TV series either.. *ponder* oh wait..
Ya it could happen... but you need to say "I predict that two years from now:" (insert random remak)
Then you can sell your prediction services.. solve "cold case" crimes etc
Oh and last I heard 50% of the WoW subs come from Asia.. so where is this 70% are in asia coming from?
Lol there is no logic at all here... It's a melting pot of meaningless and non-existent numbers. You proved my point well.
Eve Online
They were low-budget, and I'd call them successful.
(I don't know what Eve's budget was but IMHO the Darkfall developers have probably flushed more money down the toilet with their 6+ years of development)
I don''t really know when Humankind will die out but i''m guessing about 6 years before WOW.
-BarCrow
And I predict Darfall will fail.
Oh wow, look at that..I already won.
=D
I don't realy know about WAR, but THIS I will definitely play for some raw PVP.
You guys overrate WAR.
And miss one important one: Stargate Worlds!!!!
No, no, no.
TCOS
50K USA
450K EU
2M Asia
--
Delanor
No, no, no.
TCOS
50K USA
450K EU
2M Asia
50K US
50K EU
150k Asia
At best.
|Mortal Online|Gnostaria|
No, no, no.
TCOS
50K USA
450K EU
2M Asia
50K US
50K EU
150k Asia
At best.
You better watch your heart then.
--
Delanor