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FC Stock - actual facts

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Comments

  • mezlabormezlabor Member Posts: 133
    Originally posted by Battlekruse


    Funcom is fundamentally weak with little hope of maintaining subscriptions for their game Age of Conan. The main concerns stem from the companies inability to focus on both development and customer

    care.
    Age of Conan sprinted out of the gates on launch but has since been limping towards an the MMO graveyard. Customers have addressed deep concerns over the lack of game content and poor customer service. The majority of servers have seen drastic population drops as subscription

    cancellations escalate.
    The biggest news coming out of the game in weeks was a virtual sex scandal involving a Funcom employee. This bad press has lead to some extremely upset investors. The story has solidified concerns over Funcoms lackluster approach to customer care.


    Forecast:
    - Look for subscriptions to drop below 250,000 in September as Warhammer Online launches and World of Warcraft ramps up marketing for their upcoming expansion.
    - As the subscriptions fall off, the stock falls off. Will we see a dip below ten dollars?
    - Sell now to be safe.

     

     

    From what I have read on a webblog quoting aocdb numbers the subs are already under 250k sitting at about 116k however these are not official numbers and gleaned form a wowdb like site. I cant find the webblog that was my source and it shouldnt be taken as a reliable source. Soon enough we will have the q3 subscription numbers

  • Litigator_ABLitigator_AB Member Posts: 311
    Originally posted by mezlabor

    Originally posted by Battlekruse


    Funcom is fundamentally weak with little hope of maintaining subscriptions for their game Age of Conan. The main concerns stem from the companies inability to focus on both development and customer

    care.
    Age of Conan sprinted out of the gates on launch but has since been limping towards an the MMO graveyard. Customers have addressed deep concerns over the lack of game content and poor customer service. The majority of servers have seen drastic population drops as subscription

    cancellations escalate.
    The biggest news coming out of the game in weeks was a virtual sex scandal involving a Funcom employee. This bad press has lead to some extremely upset investors. The story has solidified concerns over Funcoms lackluster approach to customer care.


    Forecast:
    - Look for subscriptions to drop below 250,000 in September as Warhammer Online launches and World of Warcraft ramps up marketing for their upcoming expansion.
    - As the subscriptions fall off, the stock falls off. Will we see a dip below ten dollars?
    - Sell now to be safe.

     

     

    From what I have read on a webblog quoting aocdb numbers the subs are already under 250k sitting at about 116k however these are not official numbers and gleaned form a wowdb like site. I cant find the webblog that was my source and it shouldnt be taken as a reliable source. Soon enough we will have the q3 subscription numbers

     

    Funcom has already stated that they will not be releasing Q3 subscription numbers.  Therefore the subscription numbers will have to be inferred from the revenue data in Q3...which is a few months away.  I have already done a rigorous analysis of the potential subscription scenarios given the revenue data. 

    Needless to say they have many more subscriptions than that at the moment...likely in the 300-350k range.

    Lit

  • mezlabormezlabor Member Posts: 133
    Originally posted by Litigator_AB

    Originally posted by mezlabor

    Originally posted by Battlekruse


    Funcom is fundamentally weak with little hope of maintaining subscriptions for their game Age of Conan. The main concerns stem from the companies inability to focus on both development and customer

    care.
    Age of Conan sprinted out of the gates on launch but has since been limping towards an the MMO graveyard. Customers have addressed deep concerns over the lack of game content and poor customer service. The majority of servers have seen drastic population drops as subscription

    cancellations escalate.
    The biggest news coming out of the game in weeks was a virtual sex scandal involving a Funcom employee. This bad press has lead to some extremely upset investors. The story has solidified concerns over Funcoms lackluster approach to customer care.


    Forecast:
    - Look for subscriptions to drop below 250,000 in September as Warhammer Online launches and World of Warcraft ramps up marketing for their upcoming expansion.
    - As the subscriptions fall off, the stock falls off. Will we see a dip below ten dollars?
    - Sell now to be safe.

     

     

    From what I have read on a webblog quoting aocdb numbers the subs are already under 250k sitting at about 116k however these are not official numbers and gleaned form a wowdb like site. I cant find the webblog that was my source and it shouldnt be taken as a reliable source. Soon enough we will have the q3 subscription numbers

     

    Funcom has already stated that they will not be releasing Q3 subscription numbers.  Therefore the subscription numbers will have to be inferred from the revenue data in Q3...which is a few months away.  I have already done a rigorous analysis of the potential subscription scenarios given the revenue data. 

    Needless to say they have many more subscriptions than that at the moment...likely in the 300-350k range.

    Lit

     

    Im surprised the sec lets them withhold subscription numbers.

  • AzrileAzrile Member Posts: 2,582
    Originally posted by mezlabor

    Originally posted by Litigator_AB

    Originally posted by mezlabor

    Originally posted by Battlekruse


    Funcom is fundamentally weak with little hope of maintaining subscriptions for their game Age of Conan. The main concerns stem from the companies inability to focus on both development and customer

    care.
    Age of Conan sprinted out of the gates on launch but has since been limping towards an the MMO graveyard. Customers have addressed deep concerns over the lack of game content and poor customer service. The majority of servers have seen drastic population drops as subscription

    cancellations escalate.
    The biggest news coming out of the game in weeks was a virtual sex scandal involving a Funcom employee. This bad press has lead to some extremely upset investors. The story has solidified concerns over Funcoms lackluster approach to customer care.


    Forecast:
    - Look for subscriptions to drop below 250,000 in September as Warhammer Online launches and World of Warcraft ramps up marketing for their upcoming expansion.
    - As the subscriptions fall off, the stock falls off. Will we see a dip below ten dollars?
    - Sell now to be safe.

     

     

    From what I have read on a webblog quoting aocdb numbers the subs are already under 250k sitting at about 116k however these are not official numbers and gleaned form a wowdb like site. I cant find the webblog that was my source and it shouldnt be taken as a reliable source. Soon enough we will have the q3 subscription numbers

     

    Funcom has already stated that they will not be releasing Q3 subscription numbers.  Therefore the subscription numbers will have to be inferred from the revenue data in Q3...which is a few months away.  I have already done a rigorous analysis of the potential subscription scenarios given the revenue data. 

    Needless to say they have many more subscriptions than that at the moment...likely in the 300-350k range.

    Lit

     

    Im surprised the sec lets them withhold subscription numbers.



     

    Was the OP a troll, or was he being serious?  That is absolutely the worst analysis I ever heard. 

    We really should make a pool for when Funcom goes bankrupt.  I honestly can't see a scenerio where they last until Feb09... and that is only if they basically clean house of everyone except people to keep the servers up.  

  • mezlabormezlabor Member Posts: 133
    Originally posted by Azrile

    Originally posted by mezlabor

    Originally posted by Litigator_AB

    Originally posted by mezlabor

    Originally posted by Battlekruse


    Funcom is fundamentally weak with little hope of maintaining subscriptions for their game Age of Conan. The main concerns stem from the companies inability to focus on both development and customer

    care.
    Age of Conan sprinted out of the gates on launch but has since been limping towards an the MMO graveyard. Customers have addressed deep concerns over the lack of game content and poor customer service. The majority of servers have seen drastic population drops as subscription

    cancellations escalate.
    The biggest news coming out of the game in weeks was a virtual sex scandal involving a Funcom employee. This bad press has lead to some extremely upset investors. The story has solidified concerns over Funcoms lackluster approach to customer care.


    Forecast:
    - Look for subscriptions to drop below 250,000 in September as Warhammer Online launches and World of Warcraft ramps up marketing for their upcoming expansion.
    - As the subscriptions fall off, the stock falls off. Will we see a dip below ten dollars?
    - Sell now to be safe.

     

     

    From what I have read on a webblog quoting aocdb numbers the subs are already under 250k sitting at about 116k however these are not official numbers and gleaned form a wowdb like site. I cant find the webblog that was my source and it shouldnt be taken as a reliable source. Soon enough we will have the q3 subscription numbers

     

    Funcom has already stated that they will not be releasing Q3 subscription numbers.  Therefore the subscription numbers will have to be inferred from the revenue data in Q3...which is a few months away.  I have already done a rigorous analysis of the potential subscription scenarios given the revenue data. 

    Needless to say they have many more subscriptions than that at the moment...likely in the 300-350k range.

    Lit

     

    Im surprised the sec lets them withhold subscription numbers.



     

    Was the OP a troll, or was he being serious?  That is absolutely the worst analysis I ever heard. 

    We really should make a pool for when Funcom goes bankrupt.  I honestly can't see a scenerio where they last until Feb09... and that is only if they basically clean house of everyone except people to keep the servers up.  

     

    Yea I think I will give them to dec 08

  • HalandirHalandir Member UncommonPosts: 773
    Originally posted by Azrile
    Was the OP a troll, or was he being serious?  That is absolutely the worst analysis I ever heard. 
    We really should make a pool for when Funcom goes bankrupt.  I honestly can't see a scenerio where they last until Feb09... and that is only if they basically clean house of everyone except people to keep the servers up.  

     

    Troll?

    OP = 4 posts: 2 c/p jobs, 1 post pointing out the first of the two, 1 post wondering if the first was deleted (still there). You be the judge

    Well lets analyze: Fairly interesting post (the 1 post that was actually in the 4 posts combined) however the obnoxious, condescending tone seems to indicate: "Funcom customer support"

    Aww - sorry couldn't help it - The OP sounds ready to burst due hot air overload

    We dont need casuals in our games!!! Errm... Well we DO need casuals to fund and populate our games - But the games should be all about "hardcore" because: We dont need casuals in our games!!!
    (repeat ad infinitum)

  • bcrankshawbcrankshaw Member Posts: 547
    Originally posted by Litigator_AB


    You know if anyone wants I will absolutely tear this BCR guy a new strip...that is the worst analysis I've ever seen from someone claiming to be an expert.
    But Funcom falling to an all-time low today makes it hard for me to snap out of my jovial mood. :)
    Lit



     

    I would love you to refute his analysis

    I found him arrogant and condescending and if his " analysis " is factually inaccurate then could you explain why .....I hope its not too hard cause he's  worked in " investment banking " and is clearly " financially astute "

    I would but I don't have the knowledge to disagree with him on financial terms :)

    "after the time of dice came the day of mice "

  • mezlabormezlabor Member Posts: 133

    check page two of this thread. theres the analysis

  • AirwrenAirwren Member UncommonPosts: 648

    This is all positive information to indicate that the company is not going to close its doors and fold up but that does not change the fact that their stock is getting hit hard right now and their brand new game release sucks balls.  As we all know, MMO's cost a great deal of money and resources to create, let alone maintain.  It is not good for the long term health of Funcom to try and absorb large losses quarter after quarter.  Hopefully the subs start to settle down and they can begin to accurately project if the game will break even or it it's a loss. 

  • The player base for its titles are decaying at an alarming rate. The company has hired untrained uneducated workers as their customer service reps which has resulted in a cyber sex scandal bringing much unneeded bad press. The customers are revolting on almost every webforum about the quality of the customer service and game content. The reputation of their products are ruined.

  • xxlilDevilxxxxlilDevilxx Member UncommonPosts: 245

    3 words....

    Check my sig

    image
    image

  • RommeliRommeli Member Posts: 65

    I wish them best luck on this, game isnt anywhere near ready state, as of now. And atleast next 6 months wont be easy for them. We have WAR coming and WOW expansion of course always draws some old players back.

    Played: Quite a few Mmos
    Playing: Something

  • markyturnipmarkyturnip Member UncommonPosts: 837
    Originally posted by briyan

    Originally posted by markyturnip


    at the very least we will see a bunch of games that match WoW's numbers

     

    Marky, I'm afraid you're sadly mistaken if you believe this. 



     

    over the next 15 years? seems likely to me...

    then again, maybe wow really is a one off outlier. BUt look at the numbers of people online! The growth continues! Still, we may also all be headed for a long economic decline, so who's to say.

  • jaxsundanejaxsundane Member Posts: 2,776
    Originally posted by silkworm

    Originally posted by bcrfan



    finally as for cash flows - they are based of subscriptions, and while they may be falling in the US, having stable growth rate in the EU, and launching in Poland, Russia soon, and followed by Asia. their market WILL expand, this is a 100% given, and with an expanded market, you have more customers, and more customers, long term, or short term mean revenues, that relate to income, and the bottom line.


    I'm glad someone knows what he is talking and not pulling things out of his a$$



     

    "

    I'm glad someone knows what he is talking and not pulling things out of his a$$"

    Heck I'm much more interested in the opinion of the two higher ups who sold shares and quit than this guys.

    but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....

  • jaxsundanejaxsundane Member Posts: 2,776

    Originally posted by Litigator_AB


    You know if anyone wants I will absolutely tear this BCR guy a new strip...that is the worst analysis i've ever seen from someone claiming to be an expert.
    But Funcom falling to an all-time low today makes it hard for me to snap out of my jovial mood. :)
    Lit



     

    but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....

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