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Will the fate of TCoS be the same as Age of Conan?
Keridwan
Member Posts: 118
Views and opinion required on whether The Chronicles of Spellborn will experience the same fate as Age of Conan? That is that it will fail miserably within three months and have less than 100K subscribers after 6 months?
thank you
Comments
Certainly not for the reasons AoC failed.
For starters the developers are honest to their audience. When something is not in at release they will tell. They are not making false promises.
SIL did spend half a year or more rewriting the network coding of their engine with good result. Something Funcom should also have done for AoC (I did mention that a few months before release, but I was only one voice in a crowd of fanbois). SIL will not be forced to create all kinds of game breaking work arounds like Funcom did.
The combat system of Spellborn is really innovative and fun to play. It is really interactive and requires skill and strategy.
The hype for Spellborn is not over the top. Not yet at least. This may cause Spellborn to become a slow starter, were word of mouth may have to compensate for the lack of exposure. But maybe Frogster, Acclaim, Mindscape and Excite Japan will make a difference there.
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Delanor
Age of Conan got major initial sales because of superb hype and then went on to lose those players again because AoC is a Funcom (or Gaute) product, combining a lack of thought-through design with an enourmous amount of bugs. Both Anarchy Online and it's first expansion, the Shadowlands (also with Gaute as lead), failed in the same way. Hype sold the boxes, the game and bad communication made the players leave.
Spellborn is probably going to be different. It doesn't nearly have enough hype yet and I just hope it doesn't tank early, because it might never get a chance of reaching the critical mass they need in order to survive. Wether or not they will be able to retain enough of the players that do try out the game will depend on how ready the game is at launch and how the company handles problems from there on. Since they're not Funcom I would give them a chance to prove themselves before judging them
Have they ever created something before Spellborn? I'dd like to get an idea about the quality I can expect from them as well
There isnt tons of beta leaks like AoC had before launch, thats probably a good sign ;p
We will just have to wait, for all we know the game sucks. I dont think they will fail as badly as AoC, because the hype is not there. If this game is good it will grow from a small population that it has at the moment, if it is crap, I doubt anyone will notice it fade away.
Even if it does well, I think that it would only peak to about Lotro, or EvEs numbers purely because this is definably a small niche title. I hope it does well, a game that is as different as TCOS doing well could only be a good thing for the industry.
Why would TCoS be questioned as being as bad as AoC. War, Aion, or any of the others could be as bad upon release as AoC. But I think n hope that devs learn from AoC to release a complete game n not to brag about features they don't have for release.
From what I have seen, the game looks nice n gameplay looks somewhat different. I guess it all comes down to if TCOS is fun to play or just a badly done grindfest.
I hope not. But we could ask the same about others games next to release for sure. I think this game is similar in the game developer state than AoC, I mean, graphics, few guild contents, few housing,pvp. The difference is that the developers has said the truth by now. In fact seems we know what we are buying. In addition the hype is lower giving time to developers to add this content in time and without bugs. Hope this wame works cause i really like the world design and other innovations like combat.
Being perfectly honest, this game has a high potential to fail, but not for the same reasons that AoC failed for. AoC failed basically from one aspect and that was poor management, which has caused (and is still causing) a whole chain of catastrophe to anything dealing with Age of Conan.
What I can see happening for this game failing is for simple reasons such as finding loopholes through their combat system (since from what I hear this "deck" system is a fairly new idea and a good mix of former ideas) or not being able to get proper fundings (I've never heard of this company and have no idea how successful they are to be able to get cash for what they're proposing).
EDIT: And chances are, this game probably won't be making more then an average of 100k subscribers. 100k subscribers is pretty damn successful, and considering this game isn't trying to advertise themselves as the shiznit, that makes it sound even better. As long as there are enough players to play and create a good community it shouldn't even matter.
Indeed,Although I am hoping for around 150k-200k in the 1st 3 months,not that the number's matter too me but so there is that bit more money for the devs to continue to grow and add content etc.
As was said this game isnt being lined up as the next "WoW killer" like most p2p mmo's these days but rather as an alternative and a game that brings something new to the table.
I would expect more hype when a release date is announced and the 3 publisher's doing there part but it will be word of mounth after the game release's that will sell the game(if it release's well).
If someone had came up to me in 1980 when I was on my Atari 2600 and said we will be playing games with thousands of people at the same time.I guess my response would have been,"but I only have 2 joysticks"
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/235780/page/8
4, there are 4 publishers.
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Delanor
What 1 am I missing mate?
I know of Mindscape,Frogster and now Acclaim.
If someone had came up to me in 1980 when I was on my Atari 2600 and said we will be playing games with thousands of people at the same time.I guess my response would have been,"but I only have 2 joysticks"
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/235780/page/8
Excite.
"The Chronicles of Spellborn" is scheduled to be released at the end of 2008. It's publishers are Frogster Interactive Pictures AG (for the localized versions of the game in Europe and Asia), Excite Japan Co. Ltd., Mindscape (for the English version of the game in Europe) and last but not least Acclaim Games (for North America).
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Delanor
Ahh cheers mate,for some reason have never seen the Japan publisher.
If someone had came up to me in 1980 when I was on my Atari 2600 and said we will be playing games with thousands of people at the same time.I guess my response would have been,"but I only have 2 joysticks"
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/235780/page/8
I doubt it will end up like Age of Conan. It has never been hyped up by the developers as much as Age of Conan was before release.
What does that mean? Well, basically people don't have extremely high expectations. Also, it's a sign that the developers are actually taking their time to release a quality product, which will only benefir them in the long run.
It's hard to predict what the sales figures will be like, but if it does do well I don't think it'll do so with a sudden bang at release. Age of Conan had huge sales figures then saw a sharp decline in subscriptions as people left after the free month. TCoS will most likely experience average sales and build up over time as the publisher starts advertising the game and the community starts voicing its opinion (should that opinion be a good one).
I think TCoS actually suffers from teh opposite of what AoC did......There is too little information come out on it and I think that will scare away alot of people....Also the next couple of months will be a bad time to release as Warhammer is being released in a few days, and WoW and LoTRO both have major expansions releasing soon.......
Well done, Girls can troll too it would seem.
AoC failed because of false representation. TCoS will succeed because no one knows what to expect exactly, and will be surprised when they get a chance to play.
"The public is wonderfully tolerant. It forgives everything except genius."
-Oscar Wilde
I think that TCoS will do just fine, all they need is a couple of 100k subscribers and they can make profit.
Also don't forget that the free trial(so far it seems only for NA users) will give players an easy way to discover and play the game without any risk.
Lots of players aren't really jumping to pay for a game that they know nothing about and a trial is the perfect solution for this.
I think the major concern for TCoS is publicity. A game can be perfect for example, but if nobody knows about the game you'll still go bankrupt as a developer. I really hope that the publishers do their job and promote this game in the final month(s) before release.
Fragland.net - Fragland Arcade - Fragland.be - ScifiBelgium
it can't be compared to AOC Failure wise.
The Conan as an IP is awesome.
For TCoS to be as big a failure they would have to take preorders and then say we're sorry but we are filing bankruptcy.
I suspect it will in part because it will have " a lot of instancing" according to one of the developers interviewed for this site. Instancing is one of the things that killed AoC.
He was talking about dungeons, not the AoC type of instancing.
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Delanor
He was talking about dungeons, not the AoC type of instancing.
they call it " Load Balance" (... open a new instance if there are to many players etc.) but it´s basically the same like normal instancing.
sure, they try to avoid some "bad words" ... they dont want loose potential buyers a few month before the release
The German, English and French versions of The Chronicles of Spellborn are scheduled for release on November 27th, 2008 in Europe.
instancing didnt kill aoc, but bugs, ban happy mods, GMs cyboring, low content.. just poor management. ppl are not complaining about instancing but the poor management of FC
MMOs currently playing: -
About to play: Lord of the Rings Online
Played: Anarchy Online (alltime favorite) and lots of f2p titles (honorable mentions: 9Dragons, Martial Heroes, Dekaron, Atlantica Online)
He was talking about dungeons, not the AoC type of instancing.
they call it " Load Balance" (... open a new instance if there are to many players etc.) but it´s basically the same like normal instancing.
sure, they try to avoid some "bad words" ... they dont want loose potential buyers a few month before the release
No, he was talking about dungeons. What you are referring to is something that the CM at that time (two years ago or longer) told us they were contemplating, but were not sure if, nor in what form they would implement it.
Since the bad release of AoC and people blaming the instancing as one of the important factors, people have become allergic to instancing in whatever form and are touting about unconfirmed features in Spellborn. I had this discussion a couple of times before here. We do not know whether such a feature is in the game (it would make sense though), nor in what form and we certainly do not know how it will influence the gaming experience when it is in. AoC did not event the wheel and we know about games were instancing of zones does not break the gaming experience at all. It is not instancing that killed AoC, but the way they implemented it, plus the unfinished state of the game, of course.
So, lets wait and see whether this kind of instancing is in the game at all, and when it is wait and see how it is implemented before making references to any other game in which it failed or was succesfully implemented. That is my thought.
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Delanor
People could be surprised and not like the surprise. TCOS will do fine but I'm not expecting it to be even competitive with Final Fantasy now.
What they do with content updates and if they grow in subscribers like EvE does when releasing expansions will tell me whether or not it will become that competitive.
People could be surprised and not like the surprise. TCOS will do fine but I'm not expecting it to be even competitive with Final Fantasy now.
What they do with content updates and if they grow in subscribers like EvE does when releasing expansions will tell me whether or not it will become that competitive.
Competitiveness is an after thought for me. I'm not monetarily invested in any of these companies. I think Hellgate: London is a fun game, and i'm not nearly as cynical as some.
If i like it, i'll just hope it gets enough business to stay in business, since its not going to have a single player option.
"The public is wonderfully tolerant. It forgives everything except genius."
-Oscar Wilde
People could be surprised and not like the surprise. TCOS will do fine but I'm not expecting it to be even competitive with Final Fantasy now.
What they do with content updates and if they grow in subscribers like EvE does when releasing expansions will tell me whether or not it will become that competitive.
A unpleasant surprise can be alot more damaging for a game, then devs who are honest before launch with their players. Well, atleast for me.
That being said, I hope Spellborn does very well. They are trying something new, and we have to applaud them for that!
You can not make that statement. I for one would not play the game because it did not feel like an immersive world with the over abundant instancing. Stepping on a portal to get to different areas of the world is not a world.