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Estimating current number of players using server population

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  • GinazGinaz Member RarePosts: 2,572
    Originally posted by Pale_Fire


    Just for clarity, we're talking about players playing the game and not total subscribers, correct? 

     

    Correct.  I put my estimate (probably on the high end) at around 20k for players.  Since many people have multiple accounts the actual sub numbers is probably around 30k.

    Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?

    Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.

  • GinazGinaz Member RarePosts: 2,572
    Originally posted by Suvroc

    Originally posted by Ginaz

    Originally posted by Obraik

    Originally posted by Obee


    5000 is way over the actual numbers for heavy.  Even during the pre-CU, when Bria was crashing due to overpopulation, 5000 was more than heavy.  IIRC, pre-CU, 7500 was considered "Full" (down from the intial claim that the servers could hold up to 10, 000 players pre-release).  The amount of players per label was reduced twice that SOE had admitted to (once after the free Bria to any other server transfers pre-CU, due to overpopulation, and once after some dismal prime time Friday night numbers were leaked post NGE), and likely a couple more times that they haven't.  The pre-CU change was due to the servers not being able to handle as many people as they had thought the could, and the post NGE change was due to 'technical reasons'.
     

    Pretty sure it was announced/leaked sometime pre-cu that the max a server could hold was 3k...

     

    Then my estimates would probably be a little lower.  I was rounding up to give swg the benefit of the doubt.  What do you think of my estimates, between 10k and 20k players with around 30k subs?



     

    I think this is a fairly reasonable estimate.

    I think Obraik is pretty close to what the capacity of a max server is. After making that assumption it's easy to use logic to determine the number of players currently online. The only difficult part is trying to figure out the ratio of players logged in to players offline.

    Like I said, I tried to base my estimates using logical methods.  Its pretty easy to guess how many people are still playing when you know the limits of servers and the actual server loads.  It doesn't take a genius to know that with only 3 to 5 servers sporadically hitting heavy, regardless of whether its 5k or 3k or whatever, that there is no way theres anywhere near some of the numbers being thrown out by the fanboys, like 50k or 100k.  Couple this with all the posts asking for server merges and a clear picture emerges of how far swg has fallen.

    Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?

    Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.

  • Pale_FirePale_Fire Member UncommonPosts: 360
    Originally posted by Ginaz

    Originally posted by Pale_Fire


    Just for clarity, we're talking about players playing the game and not total subscribers, correct? 

     

    Correct.  I put my estimate (probably on the high end) at around 20k for players.  Since many people have multiple accounts the actual sub numbers is probably around 30k.

     

    I admit I could be completely wrong, but I think you're underestimating the total subscribers based on your logic.  I've read a number of times that at any given time, about 1/4 to 1/3 of the subscriber base is actually playing. 

    So, if you're estimating 20k players on at peak times, you're probably talking about 60k -80k total subscribers.  I don't play SWG anymore (another NGE Exile), so I'm not trying to pump the game up.  I will say that 80k subs is pretty pathetic for this IP, considering it's successful beginning. 

    Anyway, I could be wrong.  Just my thoughts.

  • GinazGinaz Member RarePosts: 2,572
    Originally posted by Pale_Fire

    Originally posted by Ginaz

    Originally posted by Pale_Fire


    Just for clarity, we're talking about players playing the game and not total subscribers, correct? 

     

    Correct.  I put my estimate (probably on the high end) at around 20k for players.  Since many people have multiple accounts the actual sub numbers is probably around 30k.

     

    I admit I could be completely wrong, but I think you're underestimating the total subscribers based on your logic.  I've read a number of times that at any given time, about 1/4 to 1/3 of the subscriber base is actually playing. 

    So, if you're estimating 20k players on at peak times, you're probably talking about 60k -80k total subscribers.  I don't play SWG anymore (another NGE Exile), so I'm not trying to pump the game up.  I will say that 80k subs is pretty pathetic for this IP, considering it's successful beginning. 

    Anyway, I could be wrong.  Just my thoughts.

    Not players on at peak times.  Players total.

    Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?

    Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.

  • efefiaefefia Member Posts: 631

    World of Warcraft has 5 million subscribers outside Asia. Just think on that number for a little while, five million.

    Is it really respectable for a Star Wars mmo to have 100,000? 200,000? half a million?

    We're talking about tthe biggest IP in entertainment history here versus a game that ripped off tabletop game played by nerds.

     

    SOE = failed, even when SWG was at it's peak, 350k subscribers.... it's utterly pathetic.

    ...The spread of secondary and latterly of tertiary education has created a large population of people, often with well developed literary and scholarly tastes, who have been educated far beyond their capacity to undertake analytical thought.

  • ValeranValeran Member Posts: 925

    250k-350k was excellent MMO subscriber numbers pre-WoW though.

    --------
    Ten Golden Rules Of Videogame Fanboyism

    "SOE has probably united more gamers in hatred than Blizzard has subs"...daelnor

  • efefiaefefia Member Posts: 631
    Originally posted by Valeran


    250k-350k was excellent MMO subscriber numbers pre-WoW though.



     

    EQ/EQ2 hit like 400k, that's an unknown unique IP, and you think a Star Wars game reaping 350k was excellent?

    It's still only half the number of people that were actively playing JK multiplayer at the time though.

    350k was the starting blobk that should have been increased, instead SOE hit the "Do not push" red button, not once but twice and effectively killed any chance the game ever had of increasing it's subscribers.

    ...The spread of secondary and latterly of tertiary education has created a large population of people, often with well developed literary and scholarly tastes, who have been educated far beyond their capacity to undertake analytical thought.

  • EbenEmaelEbenEmael Member Posts: 334
    Originally posted by Pale_Fire

    Originally posted by Ginaz

    Originally posted by Pale_Fire


    Just for clarity, we're talking about players playing the game and not total subscribers, correct? 

     

    Correct.  I put my estimate (probably on the high end) at around 20k for players.  Since many people have multiple accounts the actual sub numbers is probably around 30k.

     

    I admit I could be completely wrong, but I think you're underestimating the total subscribers based on your logic.  I've read a number of times that at any given time, about 1/4 to 1/3 of the subscriber base is actually playing. 

    So, if you're estimating 20k players on at peak times, you're probably talking about 60k -80k total subscribers.  I don't play SWG anymore (another NGE Exile), so I'm not trying to pump the game up.  I will say that 80k subs is pretty pathetic for this IP, considering it's successful beginning. 

    Anyway, I could be wrong.  Just my thoughts.

    I still have an active account although I rarely logon. I would find it very hard to believe that the game has anywhere near 80k players. I would lean more towards 30k, maybe less.

  • EbenEmaelEbenEmael Member Posts: 334
    Originally posted by efefia

    Originally posted by Valeran


    250k-350k was excellent MMO subscriber numbers pre-WoW though.



     

    EQ/EQ2 hit like 400k, that's an unknown unique IP, and you think a Star Wars game reaping 350k was excellent?

    It's still only half the number of people that were actively playing JK multiplayer at the time though.

    350k was the starting blobk that should have been increased, instead SOE hit the "Do not push" red button, not once but twice and effectively killed any chance the game ever had of increasing it's subscribers.

    At the time that SWG had ~250k players, that was considered excellent. Times have changed. But if the bugs had been worked out and more Star Wars related content added, the game would have done much better IMHO.

  • efefiaefefia Member Posts: 631
    Originally posted by EbenEmael

    Originally posted by efefia

    Originally posted by Valeran


    250k-350k was excellent MMO subscriber numbers pre-WoW though.



     

    EQ/EQ2 hit like 400k, that's an unknown unique IP, and you think a Star Wars game reaping 350k was excellent?

    It's still only half the number of people that were actively playing JK multiplayer at the time though.

    350k was the starting blobk that should have been increased, instead SOE hit the "Do not push" red button, not once but twice and effectively killed any chance the game ever had of increasing it's subscribers.

    At the time that SWG had ~250k players, that was considered excellent. Times have changed. But if the bugs had been worked out and more Star Wars related content added, the game would have done much better IMHO.



     

    Well maybe you consider it excellent, me, as a Star Wars fan, seeing an unknown game with swords and sorcery shit outselling it.... well it makes me laugh frankly.

    ...The spread of secondary and latterly of tertiary education has created a large population of people, often with well developed literary and scholarly tastes, who have been educated far beyond their capacity to undertake analytical thought.

  • ValeranValeran Member Posts: 925
    Originally posted by efefia

    Originally posted by EbenEmael

    Originally posted by efefia

    Originally posted by Valeran


    250k-350k was excellent MMO subscriber numbers pre-WoW though.



     

    EQ/EQ2 hit like 400k, that's an unknown unique IP, and you think a Star Wars game reaping 350k was excellent?

    It's still only half the number of people that were actively playing JK multiplayer at the time though.

    350k was the starting blobk that should have been increased, instead SOE hit the "Do not push" red button, not once but twice and effectively killed any chance the game ever had of increasing it's subscribers.

    At the time that SWG had ~250k players, that was considered excellent. Times have changed. But if the bugs had been worked out and more Star Wars related content added, the game would have done much better IMHO.



     

    Well maybe you consider it excellent, me, as a Star Wars fan, seeing an unknown game with swords and sorcery shit outselling it.... well it makes me laugh frankly.

     

    There is an old saying...one man's trash is another man's treasure...

     

    I understand your point but truly pre-WoW SWG sub numbers were quite good in the non Asian MMO industry.

    --------
    Ten Golden Rules Of Videogame Fanboyism

    "SOE has probably united more gamers in hatred than Blizzard has subs"...daelnor

  • TeknoBugTeknoBug Member UncommonPosts: 2,156


    Originally posted by Valeran
    I understand your point but truly pre-WoW SWG sub numbers were quite good in the non Asian MMO industry.
    Exactly, EQ and EQ2 are the only other MMORPG games in N America to go over 300K, of course there were other MMOs that exceeded that (1+ mil from Lineage) which were massively played in Korea/China, but the N America game market is different and WoW is the only one to go over 1 mil in N America as far as I know.


    That's part of why people said the reasoning behind the CU and the NGE were greed by SOE wanting more, except they got exactly the opposite.

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  • BullseyeArc1BullseyeArc1 Member UncommonPosts: 410
    Originally posted by Valeran


    250k-350k was excellent MMO subscriber numbers pre-WoW though.



     

         The game servers could only handle about 3000 people, and 5million or 500k would not have mattered to a server population, Im one of the people that remembers the wait to even get on a server during the first few months.    A sandbox like SWG cant handle super pops, none can actually, AOC proved that higher the graphics or higher the population you need to instance the server even more.     In AOC thier can be 2000 people in one spot but you wont see them.      

    I think SOE did the best they could with the game design.    If you look at the server numbers today, they are not based on 3000, it has been changed since the Nge.     We currently tried to base numbers off the GW officers.   SWG has about 10k officers, we estimate that thier are about 3 X to officers, crafters, ents, and pilots.    

    The current actual number of players can be ranged from 20-30k people, with about 100k accounts.    

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