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Darkfall sub predictions
Did you ever feel, when you were a child, that feeling in your gut when you found out you were going to get something that you didn't believe you could get? I did. When I found out that my aunt was going to buy me a copy of Metroid 1 for Nintendo and it was actually being sold (very hard to find in '88) at the local K.B. Toys. When I was riding to the store with her to get it I felt like I was going to pass out from excitement.
This is how I feel about Darkfall. I predict that a lot of you feel the same way. This is the kind of thing that you're going to remember in 20 years just like I did with Metroid.
A few times in a lifetime does a game come along that can instill this same level of anticipation.
That being said, here is my prediction.
I think that Darkfall's initial sub numbers will be modest. Somewhere around 50,000 people. This will grow slowely for the first few months due to an unstable launch. After the initial few months it will begin to grow quicker and will settle around 200k to 300k subs mostly due to word of mouth. As long as Adventurine sticks to their guns and keeps the hardcore nature of this game, it's going to be very profitable for them.
If Adventurine were a publicly traded company, I'd put $50k into them at this moment (if I had that kind of money).
Life of an MMORPG "addict"
For 7 years, proving that if you quote "fuck" you won't get banned.
Comments
I think 50k at launch is problably accurate. but I dont see it ever going over 100k.
20-50k....
its a small nieche game.
March on! - Lets Invade Pekopon
50k to 100k at start. A slow, gradual buildup after that.
Much like EVE I would say, seeing as it's the one game it can somewhat compare to. I suppose 200k-300k eventually.
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i think it will probably hit 250k max, 3 years out the door like eve launch it might see 20-50k then a sharp decline for a few months. but when they start pumpimg out patchs it will slowly grow . thats if the community is like eve's or swg.. but if its like the average mmo community(doubtfull sandbox brings a diff type of player)
it wont pass 50k. also depends on hardcore ppl are on killing new players and town killing people.
It's impossible to estimate until it's available to play.
If it has all the features described and runs well then it could be a lot.
Probably about 100k, there are that many people registered on the forums now.
Darkfall Travelogues!
it is definitely a niche game....though if it releases well and reviews come in good...expect to see a big increase in numbers after launch. it promises so much....too much in the eyes of many, too good to be true.
but if it actually delivers...then people (even the normally non pvp crowd) will be looking into it.
DF doesnt need much to be a huge success....I would expect about 2x or 3x what eve has since the fantasy genre is more popular (if it releases well)
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With 150k+ on it's forums, it'll easily top 100k subs to start. What % of vid gamers start forum accounts to talk about a game that isn't out yet and nobody's heard of? Out of my 6 IRL friends who are going to be playing this, i am the only one with a darkfall forum or mmorpg forum account.
I'm excited for this game too, however, I remember Shadowbane and how much the Devs loved that game. It all comes down to money and appeal. The Devs don't have enough money to create a polished game, so it will not appeal to the majority used to WoW off the bat. It will also have limited appeal due to its open sandbox nature, which attracts the PvP ganker types.
I'll be honest, the game impresses me a great deal, however, the community does not, since they are so hung up on PvP, even though the game isn't centered on PvP. Just because a game has open pvp, doesn't mean the game is a PvP game. It means the game is an actual world you can live in, where your actions have consequences and where you can build your own nation. Sure, there will be PvP involved with that and I cannot wait. But to think that everyone will be these anti-social PvP types, leaving the more mature types like me the minority is scary. I'd rather get together with a mature bunch of people, who want to explore the Darkfall world, build a city, and prosper. Those aren't the first words you hear from Darkfall fanbois. The first words you hear from them are "open pvp."
MMORPG's w/ Max level characters: DAoC, SWG, & WoW
Currently Playing: WAR
Preferred Playstyle: Roleplay/adventurous, in a sandbox game.
That's just it. Logic and past experience shows us that Darkfall will not have a good release or good reviews. The game features and etc. I expect to be in there, but that's not all that makes or breaks a game. It's the level of polish and "good word" getting out. Darkfall is niche, so it won't draw in enough people to get a lot of good word out, even if it is successful. If it is successful, the best it could hope for is the gradual increase in subs like EvE has, which I think is great. But I know better. Darkfall doesn't have the funding or the manpower to release a good game. Yes, feature-wise it will be a good game, but polish and stability-wise, it won't be. I'm rooting for Darkfall too. I want it to succeed, but I've played in this genre for over 7 years now and I know what happens when a small company without any money releases a game. 8 years ago, a sub-par release wouldn't hurt a game like Darkfall, but in this new era of MMORPGs and their community, a MMORPG won't make it a week without heavy criticism if the game isn't as polished as WoW.
MMORPG's w/ Max level characters: DAoC, SWG, & WoW
Currently Playing: WAR
Preferred Playstyle: Roleplay/adventurous, in a sandbox game.
100k is a good estimate. and if it is all on one server then even better, could average out at about 20-30 thousand people on at the same time and that is more then enough
Darkfall has already done a good job of getting the word out. I doubt that there are many current MMO players that don't know about it. It's actually been a tool that has been used in MMO forums everywhere to compare and contrast different development philosophies. I know that I first heard about Darkfall on the DDO forums, went and investigated it last year, and have since written about it at least a dozen times across a variety of forums.
I wouldn't call Darkfall niche, either. Games with only limited PvE or stadium-like PvP are "niche." Darkfall has the potential to appeal to a very wide audience. That is actually a problem for me, as appealing to a wide audience has gotten many a decent MMO into trouble down the road. As far as past comparisons, Darkfall could be as good as Ultima Online or the original Star Wars Galaxies (I've heard good things about both), or it could have gameplay problems like Shadowbane, Age of Conan, et al. Nobody really knows yet, not even the developers.
I fully expect Darkfall to do as well as Age of Conan during it's initial launch. Age of Conan sold 800,000 copies of the game (even though many people who bought it probably couldn't actually play it). If the game functionality is there, I also expect Darkfall to actually increase subscriber numbers from that initial launch.
That's just it. Logic and past experience shows us that Darkfall will not have a good release or good reviews. The game features and etc. I expect to be in there, but that's not all that makes or breaks a game. It's the level of polish and "good word" getting out. Darkfall is niche, so it won't draw in enough people to get a lot of good word out, even if it is successful. If it is successful, the best it could hope for is the gradual increase in subs like EvE has, which I think is great. But I know better. Darkfall doesn't have the funding or the manpower to release a good game. Yes, feature-wise it will be a good game, but polish and stability-wise, it won't be. I'm rooting for Darkfall too. I want it to succeed, but I've played in this genre for over 7 years now and I know what happens when a small company without any money releases a game. 8 years ago, a sub-par release wouldn't hurt a game like Darkfall, but in this new era of MMORPGs and their community, a MMORPG won't make it a week without heavy criticism if the game isn't as polished as WoW.
Uhm Eve was developed by 5 friends if i remember, DFO will just do fine. Too many buts to take your post seriously, current MMOs are failing before they have released for all the reasons DFO won't. Any game that releases and has gameplay polish can come later.
Please explain when a game being developed like DFO still has a fresh feel and features and concept that will still be a winner and nothing to compete has come along, The answer is the current genre is not fun anymore just easy.
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Sorcery must persist, the future is the Citadel
If it has all of the features they calim , it will get 200k easy at launch. But I think some of the features will be missing, so I'll go with 100k at launch
Moving post..
I really agree with you. Darkfall is something we will remember for 20 years.
..About the sub numbers, I also agree. It sounds about right.
that would make tasos aliar so no the features are in
Darkfall has already done a good job of getting the word out. I doubt that there are many current MMO players that don't know about it. It's actually been a tool that has been used in MMO forums everywhere to compare and contrast different development philosophies. I know that I first heard about Darkfall on the DDO forums, went and investigated it last year, and have since written about it at least a dozen times across a variety of forums.
I wouldn't call Darkfall niche, either. Games with only limited PvE or stadium-like PvP are "niche." Darkfall has the potential to appeal to a very wide audience. That is actually a problem for me, as appealing to a wide audience has gotten many a decent MMO into trouble down the road. As far as past comparisons, Darkfall could be as good as Ultima Online or the original Star Wars Galaxies (I've heard good things about both), or it could have gameplay problems like Shadowbane, Age of Conan, et al. Nobody really knows yet, not even the developers.
I fully expect Darkfall to do as well as Age of Conan during it's initial launch. Age of Conan sold 800,000 copies of the game (even though many people who bought it probably couldn't actually play it). If the game functionality is there, I also expect Darkfall to actually increase subscriber numbers from that initial launch.
HAHA what? You think Darkfall will have 800k sales at launch? And that everyone playing an MMO knows about it? I'd bet if you went into any WoW city on and WoW server and asked what people thought about Darkfall, most would say "Darkwhat?"
Tried: LotR, CoH, AoC, WAR, Jumpgate Classic
Played: SWG, Guild Wars, WoW
Playing: Eve Online, Counter-strike
Loved: Star Wars Galaxies
Waiting for: Earthrise, Guild Wars 2, anything sandbox.
Runescape is a niche game too.
Although that's all I should have to say... I'll explain:
It has about 1,250,000 subs.
EDIT: Runescape didn't have a box either.
Life of an MMORPG "addict"
For 7 years, proving that if you quote "fuck" you won't get banned.
guys. dont compare this game to EVE...
yes EVE was made bye a small unknown team and is now a huge sucsess
but eve is the odd one out.. there are hundreds of (p2p) mmorpg made by small unknown company and team which never made it big and none of you have probably heard off...
March on! - Lets Invade Pekopon
Graphics, Performance, Sound, Community, Population, all that crap doesn't matter if the game isn't fun. You've got to understand, a great many MMO's aren't fun. It seems to be very very hard to make them fun.
Life of an MMORPG "addict"
For 7 years, proving that if you quote "fuck" you won't get banned.
First off, I don't think Funcom expected 800,000 copies to be sold, at all. I think it surprised them as they actually didn't have enough copies of the game or enough preorder keys. This suggests that typical marketing wisdom wasn't really working. Personally, I think this is due to the large amount of dissatisfaction that is everywhere in the MMORPG game industry, combined with a fairly heavy attachment to the genre. In other words, lots of people are looking very closely at any new MMORPG arrivals.
Second, I didn't really mean "everyone who has a current MMO subscription" knows about Darkfall. I actually meant "all but a very few of those who play new, current MMOs when they come out" know about Darkfall. And, as I mentioned in the previous paragraph, I believe that number is actually quite large due to dissatisfaction with how MMOs are being developed and maintained, in general.
Thirdly: yes, I would be surprised if Darkfall did not reach the same sales levels as Age of Conan. Perhaps I'm underestimating the "adult theme" attraction that Age of Conan had with a particular demographic (young males), but I know that I ordered Age of Conan because I was hoping for something similar to what I had read about Darkfall. I wasn't that optimistic, however. I think a lot more people have very high hopes for Darkfall, and it has been in development longer with a rather cult following that aren't afraid to speak their minds.
I could be wrong, but I would hate for Aventurine to be completely unprepared for what I believe to be entirely possible.
And once they find out that it isn't UO2 or SWG2 most of them will drop it and come back to the boards and complain about it......
that would make tasos aliar so no the features are in
Tasos has been lying about beta for the last 5 years. So what is your point?
I think the "modest" numbers senario most talk of will be accurate.....however.......if they implement a faction server ruleset at some point I see hundreds of thousand joining the game who are x DAOC or current WAR players.
that would make tasos aliar so no the features are in
Tasos has been lying about beta for the last 5 years. So what is your point?
hes been guessing never promising