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Polling data shows that McCain must win every toss-up state and one or two Obama leaning state to wi
Libertasplz
Member Posts: 221
McCain is now in the most serious hole he has ever been in.
He must carry every toss-up state:
Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, Colorado (he is only polling ahead in Indiana as of this moment)
AND one or two of these leaning Obama states:
Virginia (up 5.1%)
Michigan (up 7.0%)
New Mexico (up 7.3%)
Ouch.
Comments
I wouldn't rely on polls to determine who wins. The democrats did that in 2004 and couldn't believe they lost the election.
You're not going to see Obama win. You will find there are many closet racists who say they support Obama, but when they go behind the curtain they will vote the other way, or for an independent.
I wouldn't say it will be the closet racists, at least not primarily. I would say any bad polling data it is far more likely it the the problem of the other kind of racism -- reverse racism. I feel people may be lying to polls because they do not want to be perceived by family members at the dinner table as racist -- but they will not vote for Obama because he is an extreme leftist with no experience qualifying him.
I believe saw that at work in the difference between caucuses and primaries in the democratic parties. When they could all look at each other and accuse each other of racism for NOT voting for Obama, they voted for Obama. When it came to thesecret balot, they were more likely to vote for Hillary.
I think racism (in the form of reverse racism) HELPS Obama more than general racism hurts him.
Personally, I feel the ONLY good thing about him IS his race -- sort of, I think it would be cool to have an African American president. I think it would be a great inspiration for black boys and girls to watch such a thing happen, and to watch his daughters grow up in the White House.
That's not enough to get my vote though, but I think it's pretty cool.
fishermage.blogspot.com
The polls that you speak of that were so wrong (come election day 2004) simply flipped the toss-up states to Bush (like Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa) where Kerry had statistically insignificant leads going in.
This isn't anything close to that. Obama (minus one Fox News poll) is up anywhere from 8-12 points in Virginia.
In the toss-up states remaining Obama has a huge advantage. They are really targetting Ohio and Virginia because of they carry only ONE of them they win.
People who think that the polls lean democrat are simply ignoring the overall data and pointing to a few points in a single election (ignoring that incumbents always do better election day...look at that the polls said for Clinton in 1996...same thing happened).
Isn't interesting that the liberal news media shows Obama ahead, but the conservative new media show him behind?
I agree. But Obama is not the one they should be using as that model.
Isn't interesting that the liberal news media shows Obama ahead, but the conservative new media show him behind?
He wasn't behind in the Foxs poll...he was just up by less (2%).
Polls have been proven wrong, an example is of the 1980 election in which Carter had the lead over Regan until just some days prior to the voting.
Additionally there may be some changes occuring due to the ACORN incident and tomorrows announcement of the Kenya connection.
And that is why...
Conservatives' pessimism is conducive to their happiness in three ways. First, they are rarely surprised -- they are right more often than not about the course of events. Second, when they are wrong they are happy to be so. Third, because pessimistic conservatives put not their faith in princes -- government -- they accept that happiness is a function of fending for oneself. They believe that happiness is an activity -- it is inseparable from the pursuit of happiness.
That's not true at all Reagan had a slight lead after the conventions and pulled away dramatically the last two weeks. Carter hadn't had the lead for months. Nice try though.
I don't get the whole picking sides thing Americans do because this ain't like supporting a football team. I mean if I lived in America and could be bothered to vote then I'd just pick the guy who was promising the things I want.
barack will be rightfully swiftboated.
lol.
cant wait for the libs disappointment.
ayers picking up steam.
next thing you know:
you know martha, i heard that barack was a terrorist sympathizer. its too bad, he seemed like a nice fellow.
-I will subtlety invade your psyche-
LOL it depends on whats more entertaining. SNL or Fox News? They rate Palin keeps saying stupid stuff Fox is going to have to pick up the pace when saying words like bombs and terrorists. I'm sure by next week someone will discover that Obama is in fact the leader of a hardcore extremist terrorist group bent on destroying our freedoms.
Don't be terrorized! You're more likely to die of a car accident, drowning, fire, or murder! More people die every year from prescription drugs than terrorism LOL!
I'll quote this for you on election day when Obama is President-elect.
Gee i hope you folks don't vote for president.Your vote don't matter and your vote would not even count.So really who cares? They will put in who they want anyways..Let history speak for it self..Al Gore won the votes of the people..Bush won the Electro College vote..Who became President>?ha-ha ..And your vote didn't matter then and it don't matter now.I don't like either one we have now who is running for president..I rather vote for someone who don't make a living off of politics not dose it matter anyways..
Some people rob you at gun point..Others will rob you at "Ball Point Pen"
If you want an African American role model. Why not vote Alan Keyes? He is an independant who ran against Obama for his Senate Seat while he was a republican.
One problem McCain faces is that he has to compete against 3 of the 4 3rd party candidates since republicans are more likely to vote 3rd party, and independants are apart of McCain's typical voters. On the other hand Democrats are more likely to vote together.
Also its been shown that polling is liberal leaning for 2 reasons. They typically poll people who are already liberal leaning, and conservative people would rather not be bothered with polling questions.
The only person who has been swiftboated this election is John McCain, just like he was during the 2000 primaries.
He was swiftboated again by GWB. The attachment of the financial crisis to the Republican Presidency of GWB is extremely unfair...but unfortunately the origins of the subprime crisis are too complicated for the average person to understand.
"It is very important for us all to realise that we are living under a simple but clever system that has been designed to contain revolution whilst projecting the illusion of being a free, fair and open democracy.
The 2-party system provides firm support for the elite to implement their agenda from the top down, whilst the ordinary people at the grassroots level squabble between themselves over which political party is the best.
In reality, it doesn’t matter which of the two parties you vote for because the same agenda will unfold regardless. Hence, both parties are controlled at the very top by the same force."
From: http://www.infowars.com/?p=5026
Nice way to try to confuse readers, here are the details.
The race between Carter and Regan was tight, but prior to their debate (10/28/80), Carter had a lead by 8 points (Gallup Poll). After the debate, Carter's lead decreased to where Regan had a 3 point lead on November 3rd (Gallup Poll).
Please do explain how Carter did not have the lead for months and that the debate played no important part, since the debate was less than 1 week away.
And that is why...
Conservatives' pessimism is conducive to their happiness in three ways. First, they are rarely surprised -- they are right more often than not about the course of events. Second, when they are wrong they are happy to be so. Third, because pessimistic conservatives put not their faith in princes -- government -- they accept that happiness is a function of fending for oneself. They believe that happiness is an activity -- it is inseparable from the pursuit of happiness.
Thanks to GWB and 2004, we now know that one doesn't have to win the popular vote in order to become president. Everyone is talking % points here, but the OP is talking about Electoral Points, and there is no way McSame can rebound. Gore never had this edge, neither did Kerry or Bush. This election won't even be close.
Also, we had a GOP controlled congress back in 2004, and Bush was very popular amongst his party. We now have a Dem. controlled congress, and both Bush and McSame are very unpopular with their own party. In fact, Newt Gingrich (who I think is a very intelligent man) said McSame lost the election the second he signed on to the bail out.
There is a very strong possibility that Dems will have over 2/3rd majority in congress, so the GOP is in big trouble.
Last projection from CNN had Obama with over 300 electoral votes with at least 250 of them near-certain. Obama is in the midst of closing the deal, and McSame simply doesn't have the time or appeal to make a huge difference. The fact he didn't come up with any character attacks during the debate pretty much shows his party has given up.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,434745,00.html
And lo and behold, the FBI is raiding ACORN in a dozen states. The SWING STATES no less.
Cheaters FTL
www.economist.com/vote2008/index.cfm
Global Electoral College
www.youtube.com/watch
"is barack obama a terrorist?"
"he's got the bloodlines."
"what does that mean?"
"just think about it. the name. his background."
Your point? Only One nation outa that whole thing matters.. Fudge the rest.
If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude; greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.
Samuel Adams
Ah, more name-calling from the Obama camp. Over and over again they show they simply don't know how decent people behave.
fishermage.blogspot.com
And Communist countries are Democratic. So much for that point.
And that is why...
Conservatives' pessimism is conducive to their happiness in three ways. First, they are rarely surprised -- they are right more often than not about the course of events. Second, when they are wrong they are happy to be so. Third, because pessimistic conservatives put not their faith in princes -- government -- they accept that happiness is a function of fending for oneself. They believe that happiness is an activity -- it is inseparable from the pursuit of happiness.
Yeah sure blacks can claim racism if Obama loses, play the victim, and get all raged up if they want. What I find a double standard though is supposeably 96% of them in a poll want to vote for the candidate "that looks like them" which was remarked, "Why shouldn't we vote for someone who looks like us?".
This was on the official news networks. Now which people are really racist or not. Wouldn't you vote for whoever you think is going to benefit you the most instead?
To the topic though you can't depend on polls because they would have to poll every exact person who would be voting that election day.
AC2 Player RIP Final Death Jan 31st 2017
Refugee of Auberean
Refugee of Dereth
So what are you trying to say here? Promotion for the "new wolrd order" ? I mean is that something you are happy about? Have you lost your mind ?
Why don't we just go ahead and implant us all with RFID's , give us all one currency, one leader and blow this bitch up and get it over with. LOL When I see this kind of nonsense it makes the consiparcy "theorists" actually make more sense than the rest of us. So much for life ,liberty ,and the pursuit of happiness
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rfid