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MBJ on WAR retention rates
markoraos
Member Posts: 1,593
Here it is from Marc Jacobs on VN boards.. unoficially ofc. However a few pages up there is a hint about surprises later this week. (I suppose an official announcement or somesuch)
http://vnboards.ign.com/warhammer_online_age_of_reckoning_general_board/b22997/109280505/p9
/quote
1) Our retention rate is higher than 70% based on current data. DAoC was indeed 72% in North America. WAR's number is higher and remains higher than DAoC since billing began. I'm quite happy with WAR's numbers as they are exactly what I expected they would be.
2) No retailer has sent back copies of WAR, they are still selling nicely especially considering new games out/coming out, the economy, etc.
3) We opened the amount of servers we thought we would need for the sales volume we expected and opened a few extra to help with initial population load in the starter areas. If we had opened too few, there would have been queues on most servers and people would have been screaming at us (just as they screamed at Blizzard for WoW's initial server queuing). If we could have known the perfect number, we would have done that but we didn't so we took a guess and decided to open more rather than fewer servers. We might have been better off opening fewer (obviously) but we figured we'd be better off erring on the side of making life easier for the players rather than making them queue.
Those are the facts.
Oh, here's another fact FYI. I've never, ever said anything about WAR hitting WoW's numbers or anything like that and since we have already sold more copies of WAR than any other MMO (with the usual caveat of maybe WoW since I don't have their exact numbers) during the first 6 weeks how can I be anything but pleased with that? All my quotes/interviews have always focused on us being #2 as my goal and in terms of initial sales, well, we have met and/or exceeded that goal. In a year we'll really be able to judge how successful WAR is overall.
Mark
/endquote
I suppose this won't stop all the doom trolls from proclaiming that "WAR is dead" "worse off than Vanguard/AoC etc.." or all that nonsense with Xfire. However those with a shred of decency left might think twice before posting such crap again.
Comments
Good information, thanks for the find. As to doom trolls, I'm starting to think there are people getting paid to say negative things about WAR, even though it has been a completely successful game, with a great launch, from any sane persons viewpoint. I really wish I could get at the psychology of the WAR hater who spends so much time here dogging it instead of playing a game they actually enjoy.
Although, to be fair, I did spew some venom at AoC... but that game had it coming for all that instancing and lack of promised content. Ugh. Perhaps that is the reasoning... a feeling of betrayal? I don't know.
Oh well, here's to shreds of decency,
- LC
see the beauty of the internet is that people can say whatever they want even if its a blatent lie. Thus, trolls will never stop.
LOL. Never has truth been more blatently spoken!
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
But the more obvious the troll, the more we may mock. :-)
Mark Jacobs fully expected the retention rate to be "Drum roll please"
70%
In his next whistle stop tour of the forums he'll be providing the lottery numbers next week
/psychic FTW
Well, I can't speak for the retention rate but the rest does seem true.
If they didn't open enough servers there would have been queues and people would have complained immensely, as well as the "I tried to give the game a try but couldn't get in so later Mythic" posts.
It is also true that he never stated they would reach WoW numbers and was not aiming for them.
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They already announced their expectations are for 250k subscribers awhile ago. I don't think anyone 'trolls' about that. We generally 'troll' when posters start saying Warhammer is going to break a million soon or that it made a dent in WOW. Warhammer was always planned to be a very niche game.
I just don't buy the 'we released too many servers on purpose'. They had to know that gameplay suffers drastically on low population servers and that average players /played time drops pretty considerably after the first two weeks. If they did do it on purpose, it was an unwise decision. Players rarely complain about a 10 minute queue.. and not nearly as much as we see players complaining about their 'ghost' servers.
Probably the biggest complaint players have right now (and the reason I quit) is that there simply were not enough people in the RvR zones to make it fun. One part is scenarios, but the other part is just low populations.
Really? Flip back a few pages in this very forum and VN forum and read those huge threads about how the server queues were unacceptable. The amount of complains were through the roof.
You are now just pretend that it did not happen or just a few complains here and there.
The thing is people were not familiar with the way WAR works at release and thought by playing on one of the less crowded server will make game play experiences better (like any other MMORPG out there). The result of that was people screamed bloody murder for more servers.
The only mistake they did was listen to players. You should never ever listen to players. Look at Blizzard, they have never listened to players. They always do thing their way, always do what they think is right, not what players think is right and look how successful they are.
personally im glad they opened too many servers it would have been better than opening too few. and their giving free transfers now so its all good concerning that. now azrile why dont you go back to the wow forums where you came from? stop trolling over here no one cares what you have to say and its getting very annoying
Where MBJ stated that is where he expected the numbers to be is a lie. We all know he expected everyone and their brother to come play instead of the others. Yet it didnt happen, but WAR is still very successful, thus he can say that he thought it would that high.
Currently restarting World of Warcraft
Look anyone in their right mind would know that this is absolutely BS. Retention over 70%, my huuuuge ass. I was for christ sake alone on my previous server and guess what, I am not that impressed by the population in the server I transferred to either. When are you MJ suckups gonna stop giving head to this guy. It is absolute BS that retention is 70%. And for trying to pass off the game as a success when they had to use 1 month to get a merge/transfer system in place in a time bugfixes really should have been the focus is just hillarious. Also, removing 22 servers in US alone does not exactly spell success. There is a huge difference in having a few too many servers and a mass shut down of servers like we have seen.
Guys if you are not smelling the hoax, there is no hope for you. WAR is a game that need a huge population to be fun. If population keep dropping on the merged servers like it has done on the other servers the game is over. And belive me as long as you keep lieing about this, it will. We need to turn around collectively to Mythic and tell them to kill the RvR lag and the scenarios (and possible the Dest Order imballance) to get the game up and running. Funny thing is I think the game, looking past a few annoying bugs it is good, my problem now is actually just population and these bullshitters that try to tell me that the fact that I can't find people to play with, somehow is just my imagination. It also does not help when the CEO of Mythic come out and tell me the same thing. What the hell is going on?? I don't like people to lie to me, and PLEASE PLEASE understand that this is the fastest way to shut the game down completely. We need to fix it not just bullshit it to death.
Xfire numbers, BS or not (I guess most poll people would argue not):
www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/
show that gameingtrend is down like -60% from 4 weeks back (This tuesday 18470, tuesday 4 weeks ago 45060) . Say what you want, but this is new record. No other game in history have had a steeper drop. Not even Vanguard!! So wake up and lets be honest to ourselves, roll up the sleeves and get this game fixed.
Look anyone in their right mind would know that this is absolutely BS. Retention over 70%, my huuuuge ass. I was for christ sake alone on my previous server and guess what, I am not that impressed by the population in the server I transferred to either. When are you MJ suckups gonna stop giving head to this guy. It is absolute BS that retention is 70%. And for trying to pass off the game as a success when they had to use 1 month to get a merge/transfer system in place in a time bugfixes really should have been the focus is just hillarious. Also, removing 22 servers in US alone does not exactly spell success. There is a huge difference in having a few too many servers and a mass shut down of servers like we have seen.
Guys if you are not smelling the hoax, there is no hope for you. WAR is a game that need a huge population to be fun. If population keep dropping on the merged servers like it has done on the other servers the game is over. And belive me as long as you keep this lieing game up it will, because we need to turn around collectively to Mythic and tell them to kill the RvR lagg and the scenarios (and possible the Dest Order imballance) to get the game up and running. Funny thing is I think the game, It's good looking past a few annoying bugs, my problem now is actually just these bullshitters that try to tell me that the fact that I can't find people to play with, somehow is just my imagination. It also does not help when the CEO of Mythic come out and tell me the same thing. What the hell is going on?? I don't like people to lie to me, and PLEASE PLEASE understand that this is the fastest way to shut the game down completely.
Xfire numbers, BS or not (I guess most poll people would argue not):
www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/
show that gameingtrean is down like -60% from 4 weeks back (This tuesday 18470, tuesday 4 weeks ago 45060) . Say what you want, but this is new recordm, no other game in history have had a steeper drop. Not even Vanguard!! So wake up and lets be honest to ourselves, roll up the sleeves and get this game fixed.
To many servers were opened, and people screamed for server merges. Stop with the 1 month merger.
People complain to get something done, then when its done they run there mouth about something else. What a surprise.
People need to wake up and play the game or one they enjoy, instead of worrying about this crap. (Im at work and do tech support, so I come in time to time) At home I NEVER come here. Theres more things to o in life then rant on these boards.
Enjoy : )
"Warhammer was always planned to be a very niche game."
you really need to stop pulling things out of your ***. WAR was made to make money and to get as many subs as possible. PERIOD. EA is a publicly traded company, they have to answer to their shareholders. Dont try and tell us the game was intended to target a very small group of players and expect us to believe it like we are a bunch of idiots.
Hmm, why are major announcements like retention rates being disclosed in message board posts?
If Mark Jacobs can disclose information like retention rates, sales and player activity then why arent they done via official press releases?
Oh, yeah, if it was in an official press release the information would be under scrutiny from EA share holders and the federal government. Making fraudulent reports especially pertaining to finances is a giant No No.
All factors are not pointing to 800,000 active subscribers and a 75% retention rate. Every time Mark Jacobs posts about stuff like this it is very suspicious or is misleading.
The first highlighted line concerns me. "Since billing began"? Does that mean the retention is higher only counting subscription after the first month? That leaves a lot to the imagination and plenty of wiggle room in legalese, but maybe I'm reading to much into it.
As for launching to many servers, I have to call bullshit.
They have sold more copies in 6 weeks than any MMO ever and he alludes to their retention rate being higher than expected. Server mergers were already being discussed around the end of the first free month which means it was already a problem big enough to be on the radar weeks before that. The only possibilities I see are
Call me a troll if you wish, but this just doesn't add up at all. I mean Mark says Warhammers numbers are exactly where he expected them to be, but at the same time they over estimated the number of servers?
I'm sure the truth will work its way out over the next month or two and I hope my scepticism is wrong if nothing more than for the health of the genre.
I tend to be one of those guys who believes the numbers; but, Xfire numbers are going to be off by a huge amount. First and foremost, Xfire does not cover a broad enough sample of the players. By that, I mean Xfire tends to cater to people who play a certian type of game, namely FPS and for those who want to be able to talk to their friends while playing other games. I fit in neither category. Its like taking exit polls for the US presidential election from Arizona or Illinois and using those numbers to determine who's going to win. The cross section is just too small and biased.
Now, I admit WAR has issues. But in terms of PvP, there isn't a superior game out there. Blizzard promised us objectives in world PvP at launch of WoW. The ONLY reason why WoW is getting them now is because Blizzard knows they are going to lose players to WAR if they don't. But WoW still only has it in one zone, where WAR has it... well, war is everywhere. Class balance needs some work; but, then again... why does every successful arena team seem to have a rogue and druid in it? Lack of class balance. And WoW's PvP still suffers from its biggest fundamental flaw: gear matters too much. WoW PvP isn't balanced, it doesn't matter, AND its more like Gear vs. Gear than Player Vs. Player.
Yes, WAR needs some work; but, I still challenge the naysayers to show me a better PvP game. They can't point one out and they know it. WAR will be fine if it maintains 250K subscriptions, which I believe it will. And while WAR is going to lose some people to WotLK, I'll bet half of those people come back after 3 months due to the patches in WAR and realizing WoW is still WoW, even with the new expansion.
WAR will be fine.
In defence of xfire stats, I'd like to point out that Statistics 101 classes will teach you about sample size, hypotheses and how accurately they respresent the total population. The xfire population is a pretty good sample size. People are definitely playing the game alot less than they use to.
You will never stop kids from saying crap on boards, on the other hand who cares what anyone says WAR is a fantastic game.
Sinister Savant MMORPG Community
You always have to read carefully when Jacobs is in spin mode. He fools people with enthusiasm and tone. If you notice, he says they have 70% retention rate since billing began.
In other words, they've lost 30% of their subscriptions since mid-October. This is on top of losing all the people who never paid for a second month.
Anyone who has been playing WAR since head start (like me) knows that 70% of the original players are not still there. Not even close.
P.S. I was banned at WHA forums by "Browncoat" for pointing this out.
Actually the 250k expectation was from someone at EA, not from Mythic. The subscribers numbers for WAR are also more than twice that number, apparently - so boy was he wrong about his predictions, huh?
WAR is anything but a niche game, which is probably why it's proven so popular. The only western MMO that's more played is World of WarCraft. Both are aiming at mass appeal, although as Mark himself says, people that except that their MMO will "beat wow's subscriber numbers" make him laugh. Mythic has aimed at being no. 2, and they seem to have everything (well, mostly) going for them at the moment.
I think most would prefer having too many servers to too few - if you look at WoW's release, not only were the queues massive, but the servers would crash very frequently due to the heavy loads. With too many servers, at least the players can play the game. They're also fixing the "too many servers" problem already. What is it, by the way, that you "don't buy" about overshooting the server amount? You can't expect them to know precisely how many people will buy the game.
Personal posts from the hype machine is never to be taken seriously. Look, the game got problems and Mark is sugarcoating it, same as you guys do. You know it, we know it and he know it. He can't say otherwise though cause how long do you think he keep his job if he go around admitting to those problems. His job is to keep the pr machine going and have good community relations with the general public. It's the same with every mmo out there. As one example, Craig Morrison aka Silirrion, as good as a game director he is, never went out and admitted to the problems Anarchy Online had, neither did Gaute Godager. Craig didn't admit the problems AoC had/have either. It's just the way it is, so never take their hyped post for granted.
I don't hate on the game at all though, it's just the facts staring me in the eyes. Game need a bloody big band-aid to patch it up and somehow manage to lure and tempt ex-war players, such as myself, to resubscribe to the game.
On the 250k subscribers as a goal Mythic had, it's amazing how fast people forget. They aimed at 1 million, and Mark himself said that if WAR didn't reach that goal he feared for the future of mmo's. That man is full of himself and that comment proves it. The mmo genre will outlive both WoW and WAR and if WAR plonks it will leave no marks at all on the mmo market. It's a much bigger deal if WoW falls flat on its face, but the chance of that happening is close to zero. Even that hypothetical event wont change the mmo market much except flooding it with mmo addicts without a game to play. The market will still be there though, players will still play mmo's and developers will still make mmo's.
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Grammar nazi's. This one is for you.
Do you know what "niche" means? Warhammer, LOTRO, AoC, WoW are not niche games. Eve is a niche game. Here is the definition of "niche" from wikipedia:
By definition, then, a business that focuses on a niche market is addressing a need for a product or service that is not being addressed by mainstream providers. A niche market may be thought of as a narrowly defined group of potential customers.
A distinct niche market usually evolves when a potential demand for a product or service is not met by any supply, or when a new demand arises due to changes in society, technology, or the general environment.
---
Quote: " Adressing a need for a product or service that is NOT being adressed by mainstream providers." What WAR is trying to do is to combine PvE/RvR/achievements. WoW is sadly trying to copy some of those as well. You can never call games like WoW, LOTRO, WAR niche games.
Eve is a niche game. It appeals to customers who loves space combat, simulation mixed with very deep, user created world economy, a very massive death penalty (you can not see it in mainstream games) etc.
PotBS is a niche game. It tries to do what Eve is trying to do. So they are both in their own niche market.
Fury was a niche game, which failed.
So do not come with definitions or ideas from your organs that you can not see unless you use a mirror.
WAR never said they are aiming 250k. No game producer says that "Ok we want XXX number of people, when we get that we are done". They said, 250k is the number where the revenues catches up with costs, so they are not in any loss.
Warhammer has reached 800k. 800k box sales mean 40 million dollars. Add another 10 million dollars from 1 month subscribers, its 50 million dollars. Probably WARhammer has costed Mythic about 70-80 million dollars. In a few months the revenues will catch their costs, then it's all profit.
I believe WAR will reach the number 1 million number in January or so. When people try WotLK and see that it's the same old crap from Blizzard, they will look for other games. PvPers will return to other games. War will have it's big content patch, game will be in much better shape.
And when 1 million players in NA and Europe play WAR, it's 20-25% loss to WoW. Because WoW has 4.5 million NA+European customers. The rest lives in Asia, which provides much much less profits to Blizzard in total.
Want proof? Why do you think Blizzard is stealing ideas from WAR in the last few months and trying to add them to WotLK? The reason is simple, they do not want to lose 20-25% of their customers.
So, talk again when you understand these facts or go back to WoW forums Xfire equations...
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Ted Treffon: I don't represent Hardbodies.
Osbourne Cox: I know very well what you represent. You represent the idiocy of today.
Ted Treffon: No, I don't represent that either.
Osbourne Cox: You are part of a league of morons. Oh, yes. You see you're one of the morons I've been fighting my whole life. But guess what. Today, I win.
REALITY CHECK.
http://www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/
And this graph exactly confirmed what Mark Jacobs said !!!!!
SINCE the active subscription period began (Oct 18) , they had a 70 % retention rate.
Oct 19th : 54266 K and Oct 26 th 40592K: exactly the same figure as Mark Jacobs said.
The problem is ... we are now a week further and the same drop occurred. Why ?
Because the game now feels the lack of new players due to the fact it was no longer in the top 30 of Amazon's overall gaming bestsellers list.
So to all those that didn't believe XFire (in spite of the sample of 7000(!) players sample).. Mark Jacobs just confirmed it in his own words.
Any prognoses how much K on playing time War will score within 2 weeks? Post WotLK and MoM launches?
I'll give one: under 14K during the week, under 20 K on weekends. Meaning - on average- good for some 200-220 K subs. It will all be confirmed in Jan by EA in their 2nd quarter report. No doubt about that.
Last count over 100 servers, average of 8k players on each server equals..........drum roll please........on never mind, the math is hard I know.
Yep including all those servers at LOW/LOW and being filled at 20%, you just proved 800K players are no longer playing.
Simple math really.