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In a Year From Now...
Douhk
Member Posts: 1,019
How many subscribers do you think AoC will have? I am highly interested in the responses, especially the reasoning behind them.
My own response to this would be any number between 50k to 300k... very broad, obviously. The reason it's interesting is because AoC has a lot of variables going for it right now. But more importantly, I'd like to know the reasoning from others on what they think will happen to this game.
If only SW:TOR could be this epic...
Comments
probably around 250k or 300k max me thinks.
they could fix all the bad shit and add all the missing thingies but its had to rough a ride so far to become insanely popular again
id play it if it came around full circle
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Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The force shall free me.
-the Sith code
Pretty rare for games like this to grow much after the player base gave up on them so my guess is that your guess is probably about right. Probably something under 250K but enough to keep adding to the game.
there is no answer to this question at all. noone can say whats going to happen in a year from now. the game could be shut down or it could have a huge player base over 300k. wait a year from now and then ask another more suitable question.
well the game has about 200-250k now. If it keeps improvement and mass markets well it could grow to 300-350k maybe more.
Games:
Currently playing:Nothing
Will play: Darkfall: Unholy Wars
Past games:
Guild Wars 2 - Xpiher Duminous
Xpiher's GW2
GW 1 - Xpiher Duminous
Darkfall - Xpiher Duminous (NA) retired
AoC - Xpiher (Tyranny) retired
Warhammer - Xpiher
I don`t think anyone can really answer that question.Funcom can still catch up and clean the mess they did,the new game director is on the right track and if they can do what Turbine do in terms of free content they can decently have a 300k until the new expansion is released.
In the land of Predators,the lion does not fear the jackals...
I doubt the game Will close down. My guess is that both AoC and WAr will end up around 300K players, give or take 50K.
On the other hand, the release in Russia, Poland and Korea could change that a lot, and Also the X-box release if it ever happens.
With the Korean launch the game should at least reach 500K, since the game releases in korea when it should have been released for us too.
One thing this game has that othersthat didn't recover is it's ahead of the MMO technology curve. As people upgrade their PC's over time they love to play good looking games. This is by fay the best looking MMO out there and character animations and models look incredible. MMO's get into a slump where everyone gets bored with what they're playing and nothing good on the horizon for a while and during those times people try other games. This game will look good for a long time and as they continue to grow the game I think that will work in their favor.
Doubt AoC will fly in Korea, they love 'grinders' and Age of Conan is about as far from that as you could imagine. (unless you count the massive gathering grind)
Good luck to FC making money out of Russia, credit card fraud is rampant their. A large group of Russian hackers also shut down Anarchy Online more than once for a few days at a time ( DDOS attacks ) after FC banned some all Russian guilds.
Doubt AoC will fly in Korea, they love 'grinders' and Age of Conan is about as far from that as you could imagine. (unless you count the massive gathering grind)
Good luck to FC making money out of Russia, credit card fraud is rampant their. A large group of Russian hackers also shut down Anarchy Online more than once for a few days at a time ( DDOS attacks ) after FC banned some all Russian guilds.
Yeah I don't know how well this game will do in Korea.
Games:
Currently playing:Nothing
Will play: Darkfall: Unholy Wars
Past games:
Guild Wars 2 - Xpiher Duminous
Xpiher's GW2
GW 1 - Xpiher Duminous
Darkfall - Xpiher Duminous (NA) retired
AoC - Xpiher (Tyranny) retired
Warhammer - Xpiher
On the other hand, the koreans are suckers for high end graphics and girls in small clothes... Korea do have the biggest % MMO players in the world. AoC will be adapted by a korean company, mybe they up the grinding in the korean version.
And don't count russia out, since the oil prices went out off the roof a few years ago, the russians are doing quite well right now. They do also have beaten south africa with the worlds biggest diamond mine in siberia so things are not as they were 5 years ago. Russians do like MMOs and already quite a few off them play AoC.
With Poland, i'm really unsure. All the polish people I actually knows don't play any computer games at all.
Still, those 3 together should get 200K people. I don't think the korean company would have bought the license if they didn't think they could get at least 100K players for it.
I think what it really comes down to is the games that are released in the next year.
Granted I consider AoC a niche game, there is some heavy competition comming out in this area. I think if Darkfall delivers, really delivers both WAR and AoC could be in some serious trouble. On the other hand if AoC does not deliver then it could hold on. If the next years releases are as bad as this last years then AoC should be ok.
But I'm really putting my hope in Darkfall! (I know its a long shot)
On the other hand, the koreans are suckers for high end graphics and girls in small clothes... Korea do have the biggest % MMO players in the world. AoC will be adapted by a korean company, mybe they up the grinding in the korean version.
And don't count russia out, since the oil prices went out off the roof a few years ago, the russians are doing quite well right now. They do also have beaten south africa with the worlds biggest diamond mine in siberia so things are not as they were 5 years ago. Russians do like MMOs and already quite a few off them play AoC.
With Poland, i'm really unsure. All the polish people I actually knows don't play any computer games at all.
Still, those 3 together should get 200K people. I don't think the korean company would have bought the license if they didn't think they could get at least 100K players for it.
You haven't been following the impact the current financial crisis has had on Russia have you ?They have stopped trading several times on there stock market ,there oil revenue is dramatically down due to the oil price drop and investor confidence is at an all time low due to decisions like the invasion of Georgia
I don't think they are a stable economy and they are not going to be doing well in the next 6 months
"after the time of dice came the day of mice "
Interesting responses so far.
That's why at this moment it's a very interesting topic to discuss. As I said, AoC right now has a lot of variables going for it, which was why I gave such a broad number. This question is more then suitable for now, I don't see why not. What makes it a good time to ask is to see the estimates of players now and to see the results; we have enough evidence to make a valid hypothesis.
I especally have been liking the responses about how well they can do in Korea and Russia. Overall, Korea will substantially help their playerbase, that is, with their substantially huger MMO market; even if only a percent of the korean MMO market played, it would be worth the finances. Russia, however, I am unsure of.
Aye, this is something interesting that's mentioned as well. I agree, what we see in next could have a huge impact on the success of AoC; if we get nothing out of the ordinary while AoC is at the potential it was originally meant to be, it could help substantially.
Aye, this is something interesting that's mentioned as well. I agree, what we see in next could have a huge impact on the success of AoC; if we get nothing out of the ordinary while AoC is at the potential it was originally meant to be, it could help substantially.
Considering the company behind AOC, thats a HUGE " IF" my friend.. HUGE GIANT - HARD TO MISS, you get the picture right?
I mean I cant see them getting to the 'potential that it was originally meant to be' given that from the recent patches its painfully clear that the designers marketed the game as GROUND BREAKING PVP and really they had no system even conceived at launch and the one in the game sucks and continues TO THIS DAY to be exploited. I.E. Using guards on high levels. The system doesnt have the complexity to know the difference about who attacked first? Rediculous.
I really feel like there was some fraud on the part of FUNCOM and the advertising done for Conan. No fanboi will change my or many others mind about this one. IMHO of course IMHO.
Aye, this is something interesting that's mentioned as well. I agree, what we see in next could have a huge impact on the success of AoC; if we get nothing out of the ordinary while AoC is at the potential it was originally meant to be, it could help substantially.
Considering the company behind AOC, thats a HUGE " IF" my friend.. HUGE GIANT - HARD TO MISS, you get the picture right?
I mean I cant see them getting to the 'potential that it was originally meant to be' given that from the recent patches its painfully clear that the designers marketed the game as GROUND BREAKING PVP and really they had no system even conceived at launch and the one in the game sucks and continues TO THIS DAY to be exploited. I.E. Using guards on high levels. The system doesnt have the complexity to know the difference about who attacked first? Rediculous.
I really feel like there was some fraud on the part of FUNCOM and the advertising done for Conan. No fanboi will change my or many others mind about this one. IMHO of course IMHO.
You misunderstand what I meant by "potential it was meant to be". When I said that, I was referring to what it was meant to be at launch in an actual game sense, not success-wise. You and I are thinking exactly on the same page. I am not that blunt; they will not be gaining anything past 300k ever again, I can almost guarantee it. FC has f***ed things up way too much for themselves to accomplish that. The game could end up being as good as they have advertised in the future, but it won't be going anywhere.
And when I say "if", I really do mean "if". It's a very big "if", but that "if" is wide-standing. The game could potentially gain back to a decent playerbase of say a constant 200k by next year, 300k is very hopeful thinking for a fan. OR, it could simply die out; the ever plummeting playerbase is showing just that over the past few months. When "it could help substantially", think of it in AoC terms... going from 100k and doubling that is pretty substantial. I'm not talking about any miracles for this game.
Yes, the game used many veils. In some cases, I will applaud a company that uses a veil in an appropriate and professional matter that is successful with it; it is only business. But in AoC's case, it could be classified as sheer fraud. I believe many players have seen the game this way as well, and the declining playerbase is a prime example of this. But, veils can be forgotten, or forgiven, over time, and even more quickly if you eventually are at a point where the veil is actually a part of the ensemble. If FC can get this trainwreck in shape as quickly as they are doing they can probably survive.
population will probably be lower than Vanguard. I t still seems to be losing 5 to 10 percent a week.
I miss DAoC
My guess is 400k
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Bear Grylls : I need to get out of this frozen hellhole!
Bear Grylls : (Holds a beetle in his hand) 4 times more protein then Beef
I heard Faurte Nodager or whatever his name is quit a while back. So, maybe AoC can get out of this hilarious failure tailspin its in. If it does, I'll try it. My comp can run it now
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A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
Order of the White Border.
Anything FC does with AoC just gonna have 200% more imapact on its quality than any of the old technology games. The game without no doubt represents the most cutting edge technology in the gaming industry and there is no doubt about that AoC is THE GAME with the biggest potential. As the platform AoC is build on now is getting increasingly polished, every add on to the already existing product is just going keep diffrentiating AoC from any of the old DX9 (with no hope to upgrade to DX10) games till a point where it simply will not make sense to play anything else but AoC. I belive this will happen beginning Q12009 and I also belive we will see massinvaion of players in the game at that point. It is already happening in fact. Only players not joining AoC, will be people that crave that seamless world at any cost.
One year from now. AoC easily gonna have 1.5 Mill subscribers.
I imagine you jumping up and down on Oprah's couch while you are saying this.
My guess is that after the server mergers, we are left with 4 english servers in EU, 8 localized versions with lower pop and 5 US servers.
Huge guesswork here, but I'd estimate about 10k paying customers per server once merged, with less on the Spanish servers. That leaves around 150k customers when we enter into 2009.
With good patches with wanted features and content, they can keep that number through 2009 since there's a lot of people already with an account that's likely to recieve a "welcome back" email during the next year. While the ones here that quit make it sound like FC is the devil incarnate, for sure there's a lot of the 500k+ ex-subscribers that is going to try it again. I think the game will be good enough to keep quite a few of those.
With the expansion next fall comes the opportunity to do another ad campaign and get more ex-players back, so I think they can actually improve their numbers a bit then (if everything goes right), making them cross back above the 200k mark in about a year.
A lot of ifs and estimates, but I think that is a probable scenario if FC delivers in the coming months
I think your thought process is spot on as it's akin to mine :P Although I would like to add that as the market is always growing I think there is a good chunk of people out there that haven't played the game yet. Getting the message across to that core demograph, to see if they think they will like it or not comes down really to word of mouth from essentially those trying it out again and if it passes the grade second time out. The way things are moving now, you can feel the momentum with the game and the focus is great. Substance wise the past month has been the best yet, from which I'm sure the dev's take motivation as it really is a job well done lately. So long as FC can get the very much needed high level content in, this gives people a better impression that the company will look after you/them more when your max level. Taking steps to make Tarantia Commons forth coming update a high level zone instead of mid level is the exact thought process that is needed. Keeping this direction up is key.
AOC Subscriptions are down to under 100,000. You might keep 75% more than 3 months, if you merged servers today. However server merges are still in the works just like they've been needed since July and been talked about since September, what does it matter?
AOC is only ever going to hit 1 million subscribers in the next 2 years, if there is a successful launch of an expansion, and by successful I mean, fast to patch, with a minor list of bugs, not missing a single promised feature, and there are enough servers to accomodate that peak demand. However it would be better for FC to stop the viral marketing and just let the hype for the game die, let the trollers say what they want until nobody contends with them and stick to their own forums and concentrate on improving their product not improving the marketing.
Problem is Funcom can't deliver that or they would have already. DUH!
I say game falls to 50-75k subscribers, merges occur and squeeze out another 25k subscribers when they realize the game is dead. If the expansion looks like it has a real chance at life and it really going to be delivered complete they might be able to hold on. I think best thing for Funcom is to sell the rights to develop AOC-X to a more capable company or insource some additional talent and get it done. If they are truely making all this money the time to spend it is now, on new development.
AOC is and will be a huge failure nothing can change that. Cutting the losses is what you do when you figure that out.
I do not know whether you deliberately throw out misleading statements, or whether you simply havent got a clue about what you are saying?
DX10 is just an API - A tool... DX10 is not a revolutionary new technology. It is simply evolution, natural progress of the tool that most gamedevelopers use already.
The task of porting existing DX9 applications to DX10 is more trivial than complex! Whether it will be worthwhile for older games is an intirely different matter. Feel free to have a look here for some facts on porting dx9->10
My guess on AoC in a year from now, is that a somewhat steady subscriber base enjoys a game that have matured a lot. The Game Director may have turned focus away from reinventing the wheel and have started doing what most other leading developers does: Bought into middleware technology that works.
This will let FC do what they are good at: Producing gaming content instead of fighting technology.
Quite a few players will have returned for their 2.nd or 3.rd time to AoC, just as a lot of players will have left looking towards the new emerging DX11 games.
(Gameplay wise dx11 will have more impact than dx10 because of the "on the fly" throttling features)
We dont need casuals in our games!!! Errm... Well we DO need casuals to fund and populate our games - But the games should be all about "hardcore" because: We dont need casuals in our games!!!
(repeat ad infinitum)