Why there will only ever be a few MMORPGs

jackwild

I have not been involved in the genre for long (just since I got beroadband) and have played (and continue to play) only one MMORPG (EVE).  However, I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that ther will only ever be a few MMORPGs at any one time and most are doomed to failure.  Why?

Time.

To get value for money out of a MMORPG I reckon you need to play it at least one or two evenings every week.  For many gamers (especially ones like me who are a bit older and have families) that is as much time as you can spare, which means you can only really remain committed to (and thus willing to pay for) one game.

With ordinary PC games, I can buy one and play it as and when, and if it spends a couple of weeks on the desktop before i play it again it doesnt matter, because once it is paid for it is mine and it does not continue to cost me.  If I subscribe to two ro three MMORPGs and ignore two of them for a month I am down £20 with nothing to show for it.

I will soon be facing a dilemma because I am really looking forward to seeing World of Warcraft, but at the same time I have built up an attachment to both my EVE character and online buddies.  But I dont have the time to play both, so do I ditch EVE in favour of Warcraft?  I haven't yet decided.  But thats another big problem for MMORPGs - there is always something new coming out to tempt subscribers away and all games will, i believe, have a limited shelf life.  This is true for new PC games as well, but for them, they are not usually expecting to sell a ton after the initial rush and I am sure that is what they base their budgets on.  By the time they start to declien they already have as much money as they are ever likely to make.  But with MMORPGs, they continue to have costs going forward, with development work and customer support etc.  If subscribers leave who is going to pay for all of this?  No-one and the game will fold.

I am already attached to my EVE character after a couple of months, what would it be like having your game switched off after a year or two?  With most games, you dont mind it ending because you have reached the "conclusion" - the story is over.  But with open ended RPGS, the story never ends and so you dont get the same "closure"...hmm jus realised I have started goign off on a bit of a tangent here  

Anyway, I think in the future there will be 3 or 4 key games only at any one time, and if a really cool new game appears it will signal the beginning of the end for the game closest to it that is currently out there.  Just imagine if there was an EVE in which you had more freedom to pilot your ship (a la Freelancer or X2) or which allowed you to get out of your ship and wander round the stations or go planetside?  How log would EVE last in that case?  ot very I think is the answer.

Anyway, just my tuppence worth...

havcove

i am a great fan of both freelance and x2.... i and still playing x2 btw and still love it.... my advice to you is that you carry on with your eve character since you have grow fond of the community of friends you gain from playing the game... eve is a game created and targeted at a specfic market... those who love space sim and flying etc... thus it is my opinion that there will always be lovers of this genre playing this game.... and eve will last for quite a while

tephys

The basic idea of MMORPGs is really to live a virtual life. Without an ending to this type of game, you rely on character progression and online socialization. Most people only have time and money to play one of these games for the reasons you mentioned above. And, yes, you are right that the market is quite saturated at this point. But the main reason it is that way is because it is a very limited market. It caters to a special class of gamers. There are general gamers that include pc and console. Then there are Pc gamers that enjoy online gaming. Then there are pc online gamers that can afford monthly fees. Then within that, those that have the time and commitment to play these time-intensive games. And again, within that, the average mmorpger sticks with one mmorpg. Currently, mmorpg's are pulling gamers from each other and just now are they trying to appeal to other markets with WoW's Battlenet base, and EQ's mass media strategy.

Naos

I think the future is wide open for MMOGs, we are just ahead of the herd, I would go as far as to say the Movie and TV execs should be worried, sure a single person can only really participate in a couple of MMOGs at a time but there are an awful lot of people out there.

Given the chance I think most people would rather be active in their entertainment rather than a passive spectator and look at companies like M$ and Sony charging ahead into online gaming.... Its a small leap from a logging onto a multiplayer online game to a MMOG.