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Can Warhammer really be considered a flop?
BattleFelon
Member UncommonPosts: 483
I keep hearing from fans of a certain other game cough WOW cough that WAR is a total flop and financial disaster. This post is not to start a fanboi flamefest, but only to point out that WAR actually did very well in total box sales - .1.2 million and had 800,000 subscribers in the month after launch.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6200329.html?tag=latestheadlines;title;1
Now, I recognize that WAR may not have 800K today, I think part of that is they launched at the same time as Blizzard's latest big release. I have nothing against Blizzard, but let's face it - they are the top name in PC Gaming. If you compare WAR sales to other AAA PC titles, it's actually been a major success. And the estimated 600K current subscribers makes it one of the biggest MMOGs behind WOW in North America/Europe. That means WAR is far from an "epic fail" or a "dying game."
Personally, I think if Mythic can keep improving the game as quickly as they are doing, subs will surpass 1 million as people get burned out on WOTLK.
Comments
That is totally false...WAR may have a few issues and may not have the sub base of WOW, but it is in no way a flop...I have had a ton of fun with this game...The keep sieges and orvr has been very exciting and you will never see these massive battles taking place in WOW...I don't pay much attention to sales...Read WOW forums and that will give you some kind of indication on what people think of WOW and its newest expansion....alot of unhappy people....
People in other MMO's focus too much on sales and server merges and they think that it is a sign of disaster to see a server merge in a game with 500k - 800k sub base..For WOW because of its large player base yes I would call that a disaster if there were server merges. Some of these other MMO's that just came on the market you can't predict disaster when the player base isn't as large when compared to WOW..WAR devs were smart for doing server merges because they opened too many to start with.Give it some time and WAR will continue to pick up steam.
Woody... i think the OP is saying that war is NOT a flop....
and I agree. It's a fun game. Sensitive to populations and population-balance because of it's pvp-focus. I still think they should merge more.... every server should be med-med at prime time imo. Without that population level, so much of the content of the game is just not there.
I don´t know. I do believe Mythic has a more hopefull projection for there subscribers base, but I do not know if they consider it a flop.
War is far from a 'flop' - that is just laughable.
It can't be called a flop for one reason, it isn't finished yet.
Unfortunately, it has suffered the same 'early release' issue, as almost every MMO released these days. The moneymen are to blame.
War is now approaching a 'release' postition in my opinion, and in 6 months it will be unrecognisable from the beta that was originally cut.
They still have major issues, but I'm hopeful they will sort them out. If population imbalance isn't the first priority after Xmas, then my subscription will not be renewed. Maybe I would come back in the future, but maybe I will be playing something else. /shrug.
A+ for well designed anti-WAR propaganda.
If you put "X really isn't that bad" in the title then you're suggesting that X need defending - therefore that it must be bad.
This is a very common technique, particularly in newspapers. "Did Iraq get rid of its WMDs?" implies that they had WMDs in the first place. "Is Bush really such a bad president?" implies that Bush is a bad president. And when you confront the journalist with it he'll tell you that he actually meant the opposite "lol I'm defending the president man."
It is a pretty insidious trick but nothing really original. Any journalism college will teach you this and many other nice jedi mind tricks you can play with words.
Kudos for technique and style OP.
/edit
However since you're not one of the usual hate trolls here I'll allow that you probably made a honest mistake. If you wanted to spread the word that WAR isn't a flop then the worst thing you could do was make a tread with the title "Can Warhammer really be considered a flop?"
I don't think box sales really determines a flop or not (for mmorpgs). Developers only get about 20% of the proceeds of box sales. So Warhammer cost about 40M to make, and they got back about 8M from box sales. Maintaining subscribers is what makes money.
I'm not sure where Warhammer will come out. It's clear that they lost over half of that 800k so far. They have merged well over half their servers and a large portion of the 'destination' servers are still very inactive. Warhammer has also fallen off the sales charts, so don't expect an influx of new players any time soon.
I think it fits in well with the Eve, Lotro, EQ2 area of the chart. But I do think Warhammer is in a much more precarious situation from those games because it is almost purely based on endgame pvp that requires a large amount of players to make it fun. The 'fun-factor' of Warhammer drops off quickly as populations drop.
Hey fanboys chill out! He isn't saying that War is a flop. He was asking a question. You fanboy's are getting as bad as DF fanboys.
Edit: And no I don't think it's a flop. I think it had a bad launch which is the truth. That doesn't determine a games ultimate future imo.
-Almerel
Hello my old friend.
nah...it's the second most played P2P...game released yet in US...aion will change that I believe...yes WAR is an economical success...now if u dont like it that's another story...XXXXXXX number of costumer cant be wrong
QUESTION:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xridnasa:
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What's a "grocery store"? Is that like McDonald's?
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ANSWER:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sidimazz:
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Kind of, just without the rapist.
I wish them luck but I just could not get into the game.
@ Markoraos - this wasn't meant to be a propaganda thread at all. Although I just hit T4, I'm actually having far more fun in WAR than I ever did in WOW. But Blizzard just released numbers for WOTLK sales, which of course has got the WOW camp fired up and proclaiming how WAR is a "ZOMG EPIC FAIL" by comparison. I'm just trying to point out that's not actually the case, though it's hard to claim success if the bar is set 11.5 million subs.
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Oh well, then it's all well for WAR because, just like MBJ said, one game's success is good for the whole genre. More WoW players = more MMO players - some of which will eventually find their way to WAR and other MMOs.
It turned out this wasn't just an empty rhetoric - I'd say that AoC's failure hurt WAR's sales and reception much much more than WotLK's success. A lot of people broken-hearted over AoC (and Vanguard etc) turned their anger towards WAR - they would have forgiven anything to their baby but once it turned rotten they were hell-bent on proving that all other new games suck. If AoC turned a success then the door would have been opened for other games. WAR simply came out at a bad time filled with a lot of negativity and resentment.
However even with all that I wouldn't call it a flop by far lol. I love to play it and it is the best mmo for me out at the moment, hands down. In addition I daily see people new to WAR on my server (it's not just alts and transfers by far lol). I'd say WAR has just recovered from initial subscription losses normal for any new release and is only now beginning it's true growth. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it reached 1 mil subscribers at the end of its first year - unless EA gets cold feet and does something stupid that is. From what I've seen so far there is very very slight chance of that happening, if at all.
It depends on what your expectations were, the industry was expecting 250k subs, I would imagine that it probably has around that number or maybe more so in this perspective it isn't a flop. Some over optimistic people were predicting 1 million + so they probably view it as a flop. Really I suppose you would have to know what EA's internal projections were regarding profit and whether it has met these projections to assess if the developer considers it a flop.
I agree the game as a whole hasn't floped and is doing fine in the states the EU is a different matter though it's floped big style.
I think the main problem was everyone especially mythic and the games fanbois where been unrealistic about the the number of players a game like WAR can attract, by been a pvp based game it'll only attract players from a very niched part of the market which in it self will limit the games numbers long term. To be honest I don't really expect the game to have more than 400k stable subs or maybe 500k if the game does really well to expect more than that from a game like WAR is just been unrealistic.
I'm just curious BattleFelon, where did you get your info for "estimated 600k current subscribers" for Warhammer that you say above? The last estimates I saw given by anyone posted by a somewhat reputable source was that dealt in gaming estimates was this one:
I don't think Mythic or anyone has rebutted this analyst's estimates for future subscriptions. I haven't seen counter articles saying much different, nor has Mythic posted any current subscriber amounts since release that say otherwise. They only posted box sales, I believe.
The above quote was given about three months ago, and I haven't seen Mythic or EA post any numbers since to dispute this. I haven't seen any articles by analysts predicting 600k subs for Warhammer. Most of the speculation I've seen for numbers was by fans and non-fans mostly, not by professionals.
But since everyone can't always see articles others have seen, could you post your info where you got 600k subs are current for Warhammer? You seem to be extremely certain of it in your post. Server merges and the recent Mythic PR campaign ("Sign a sub, get 30 days of free play") don't seem to suggest that what you said is likely. Especially only being out 3 months. Other games do this type of promotion, but not usually three months from release; usually much later.
Based on predictions by Mythic high staffers in September and before, it would suggest they assumed over 1 million subscriptions the first year, with a hefty increase each year thereafter to round out in about the 3 million mark. This does not seem to fly with the conventional wisdom surrounding Warhammer at present.
I really would like to see your sources Battle, to satisfy some curiousity.
"TO MICHAEL!"
Depends on Mythics goals. If it was to have WOW like sub numbers, than yes, it flopped.
If it was to be profitable and continue into the future, then it can be considered a success.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
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Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
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"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
I'm not sure exactly what would be the correct requirements to be a flop.
I mean it should be something EA decides (I guess). Mythic isn't part of that equation.. what they think doesn't matter. The suits at EA will decide...
Is a flop when they shut an MMO down? (as EA has done in the past).
Is a flop when they cut the server numbers and staff down to make a profit? (like soe does).
Has any management at SOE ever said "this game was a steaming pile of crap.. but we managed to cut it down and make a small profit on it.. so we'll keep it running" ?
*I* just don't honestly know what the requirements are for "flop" status.
*I* thought the game could have been better and "more" than it was. That doesn't mean I thought it was bad.. I just had more hope.. or expectations.
Personally I realize that is just my opinion.. so I can't apply a flop title to anything.. more like personal disappointment.
I mean what would people here have to see happen to call a game a flop? (any game).
I like the game therefore it can't be a failure, right? Seriously people pay way too much attention to how a game competes with WoW, thats unfortunate as no game will beat Wow subscription of 11+ million out of the gate. War has done just fine out of the gate and losing some subscribers right after launch is the norm, many people buy games thinking it will be like game X and are disappointed when it isn't. This game was done right(yes it can be improved) for the RvR crowd it was intended for, which pretty much means it will disappoint the mainly PvE crowd of WoW. It made me laugh when critics said War was nothing more than a WoW clone, a poor one at that, they just didn't understand War wouldn't/doesn't appeal to that crowd. WoW is what it is and I'm happy that crowd enjoys their game, now please leave War to the RvR crowd and not try to "fix it" to match the WoW mechanics! In a year or so than you can make comparasions on how how successful a game is or not, and hopefully the crowd the said game appeals so is large enough to make the game successful.
I don't think you have to wait a year if you read things people have gone on record as saying to figure out what they think overall.
While I personally would not say Warhammer is a "flop", I add this quote from Mark Jacobs, as a sort of guidemark to answer the question of the thread...
Now a Warhammer fan or hater can take that statement from someone as influential at Mythic as Mark Jacobs is, an indicator of what they thought Warhammer would be without anyone saying words were put into his mouth or he was misquoted. That came straight from the horse, so if you believe Mark Jacobs to be an honorable man of which you can take at his word, your answer to the thread is right in there.
Or, if you are likely to believe he is, and always was, full of hot air.. then this statement would just affirm that he was shooting off at the mouth back then and really didn't plan on big numbers, and 300k is fine with him.
Either way, you have the one line that really should put this thread at an end from the person who really matters.
"TO MICHAEL!"
"Eurogamer.net interview-Warhammer Online Creative Director Paul Barnett said in an interview that he''s (literally) betting that WAR will achieve one million subscribers within a year and three million at its peak. Optimistic or Delusional? Discuss"
I would say it is definetly possible, although optimistic. A lot depends on what improvements are made to the game and whether they can meet peoples expectations. This game in my opinion is a breath a fresh air that was relatively bug free for a new release that justs needs a small shot in the arm to be a hugh success. Unfortunately many of the none WoW players are upset with recent releases and sour to any new releases.
That makes me laugh a little inside. Its like "hey look over there" (makes random comment about WoW crowd)...
I am a DAoC fan.. you know the RvR game. My personal opinion is pretty much what your quote said. To much like WoW and poorly implemented. I don't want WAR to have WoW mechanics .. so what an odd implication. I wanted WAR to have mechanics more like DAoC (you knwo the RvR crowd game) with the various fixes Mythic said they wouuld have "from learning from mistakes made in DAoC" (ya you know the RvR "crowds" game).
All of that and your post.. has nothing to do with how EA feels the game is doing.. If EA decided to shut the game down (this is what we call a "hypothetical") then it doesn't matter what "you" or "I" think. That is why the only thing that matters is what EA thinks.
If you like WAR then I'm glad for you. However, I don't really understand trying to imply that the "hate" comes from soime WoW crowd that wants the game to be more like WoW...
My personal opinion was most of the disappointment came from the fact it wasn't more like DAoC with all the various fixes Mythic mentioned over time (aka things like Crowd Control, Stealth and Anti Greifing system ala The Chicken.. among others).
If you like the game.. I'm glad for you (why wouldn't I be)
I'm not happy with the game (there are other mmo's to play WAR doesn't have to change)
If EA is happy with the game.. you can be happy for a long time (even happier for you).
Oh noes, buegur...
I didnt mean to discuss my tag INSIDE another thread! You'll hijack it!
Please ignore it as a normal course during a thread, but feel free to make a new one after^^
"TO MICHAEL!"
This is a game that launched in the post-TS, post WoW, and post multi-game clan era and it shows. It's just a very unfriendly atmosphere there. Nobody says anything, probably because everybody is too busy running around doing quests and talking with their guild mates on TS.
The manual isn't all that explanatory, which means a lot of the things have to be learned on the fly; real basic things like: how do you buy your gear?
All of this adds up to a game that isn't really friendly to anyone who isn't a hardcore MMO player. For example, while all of us here knows what a "DPS" is, and what a "Tank" is, the average Warhammer fan who logs into this game is faced with a description of the The Knights of the Blazing Sun as "Melee Tank," and is baffled by the description. Same with "DPS," or any of the other highly technical terms elite MMO players use that are standard nomenclature in this game. It gives the impression that this game isn't going to be immersive before you even enter the game world.
I've only been playing since yesterday, got to LvL 6, and already I'm probably not going to last the free month. It feels too "WoWish" and not "Warhammerish" enough.
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I agree with most you said - the game does pressupose some mmo experience.. Some people might be overwhelmed with all the technicalities - it is not as easy for the beginner mmo player at start like WoW. Someone completely new to mmos might get completely swamped with RvR experience, right out at rank 1. ("just press that little scenario button" lol)
However, the chat comment is completely counter to my experience... Since the transfers and open RvR started on my server there is almost constant chatter in /1 channel. Hmm - you're either playing on a low-pop server or I simply don't know. Could be you're in elf zone? At T1 most players congregate in Empire/Chaos and then spread out later on - fly to Nordland/Norsca and you're bound to find someone to chat with. I play on Karak Norn which is med/med to med/high and there's a lot of talk here. Hmm - if you're on a low pop server then reroll - you still have the time. Playing on low pop or simply bad server does not do the game any justice.
Title ask : Yes for me
Mythic stated they expected 1 million subs in the short term and maybe 3 million long term: So far, yes the game is a major flop when put up against these expectations.
Mythic also said their break even was around 250k: Not a major success, but not a flop either.
1.2 million copies sold, 800k users and then merging over half of the servers in north america and a complete disater in europe: A very big flop there.
I think it is very clear this game is not doing anywhere close to what Mythic expected. In a business sense for Mythic that makes it a flop. The game isn't going to explode and go away, but it is a far cry from the behomoth that Mythic thought it would be.
In order for this game to reach 1million subs one of two things would need to happen (or a combination)
I can't think of any game that has had a massive resurgence of old players coming back and since the game is already being discounted I doubt new boxes will be ordered by retailers. That is the major hurdle Mythic has to overcome for the long term health of the game.