Forums good indicator AoC may be belly-up.

nakuma

i agree with most, compling information/facts on subscriber numbers is a futile attempt, as most people who are subbed, are too busy either playing the game, or doing other things (real life commitments) some people will come to "browse" for information.

 

Ive found that most, including myself rarely post on official forums,as

A) i'm too busy playing the game, so my "visits" constitute merely following up on information Ive either came across from another player, or merely doing my own "research" to finalize a decision on a class or issue.

If i do write something, it involves a question, I want answered, and 9 times out of 10 there is at least 5-8 threads that cover the issue I want to research either in full, or in part, so I have choices.

 

Funcom does not release subscriber numbers and they have the right not to. The only people they have an obligation to show subscriber numbers to is their investors and board of directors. I am currently playing, though the game still has apparent issues, the game has dramatically improved. I look forward to the huge content addition that will fill in the rest of the absent content during 70-80, and a few new raids, and direct X 10. be sure you have alot ofspare time lol, itll be a huge download. also classes have been improved and rebalanced to come more inline with each other. AND! they are taking their time,this i feel shows a sign of commitment  from Craig, and his dev team.

The community is annoying to say the least sometimes,but thats a good indication that there is alot of people yapping at the mouth on global chat. trust me PVP brings the worst out in people lol. I am on tranny and its even pretty active even til 5-6am( im a major night owl guilty as charged) after that it dies down then comes back up around 12noon give or take depending on what timezone your "waking up" lol.

 

but i figure like this, if your goign to make a decision on a game,  Ask questions from people who are currently playing, Pick their brains! alot of players are willing to impart accurate info on a game, and wont sugar coat glaring issues if there is any. Id rather have that, so I can make an educated decision this makes me a more informed player. its all up to you, but never let someone tell you something as absurd as forums being a accurate depiction of a playerbase.

JulianDracos

There is a thread in the General Discussion that has 1956 views as I am trying this message.   That thread was started Jan 28th, 2009.  Another from the day before has 2402 views. I went to look at the PVP, and found a thread made about a week ago with 4146 views.  I went back to the begining of the forums.  I have noticed a pattern.  Most threads, in most forums, do not get viewed too often.  It just depends on the topic.  

When the game launched, it had hundreds of thousands of players.  What was it, 800k boxes sold?  Anyway, we can say it was a lot of players.  Yet, the forums traffic seems pretty much the same.  There are no threads I noticed with say 200,000 views.

So if the assumption is that most players view the official forums, and the current "lack of views" indicates the game is dying, we should notice that at some point in the past there were threads with at least say 50,000 views.  But there isn't anything close to that amount.

So while the OP has decent assumptions, it turns out that the data does not match his supositions.  First, there never was threads that would indicate most players viewed threads.  Second, that the amount of viewings now are consitent with when the game launched.  Therefore, the number of views is not an indicator of the population of AoC. 

JK-Kanosi

Originally posted by Blackwell99


 
If you ask your average AoC fan, they will tell you that this isn't true and that most players don't goto the forums. But anybody who plays MMORPG's knows that this statement is false within this game genre. MMORPGs are information based games, and virtually every body will use it for a source of information, whether it be about the class, or a newcomers forum, crafting...etc it seems that most people (even, or perhaps especially if it's that player's first MMORPG). will look to the forums for information.
 
If you believe that this is even slightly true then AoC is dead in the water. I saw a post that was on there for more than a week...it only had 125 VIEWS. That was the highest "viewed" thread in the PVP forums on the US side. (PvP is the most populated segment of the game). So when people tell you about how many new players are joining, and what a lively place AoC is--Keep that in mind, coupled with the fact that FC WILL NOT disclosed their population (which is completely unfair to new subscribers)
 
Makes you wonder. But im not making this up-check for yourself on their home page.

 

I've played MMORPG's since 2002 and I think you're wrong, when you say most players frequent the forums. In my experience, most player don't frequent the forums.

AmazingAvery

Originally posted by JulianDracos


There is a thread in the General Discussion that has 1956 views as I am trying this message.   That thread was started Jan 28th, 2009.  Another from the day before has 2402 views. I went to look at the PVP, and found a thread made about a week ago with 4146 views.  I went back to the begining of the forums.  I have noticed a pattern.  Most threads, in most forums, do not get viewed too often.  It just depends on the topic.  
When the game launched, it had hundreds of thousands of players.  What was it, 800k boxes sold?  Anyway, we can say it was a lot of players.  Yet, the forums traffic seems pretty much the same.  There are no threads I noticed with say 200,000 views.
So if the assumption is that most players view the official forums, and the current "lack of views" indicates the game is dying, we should notice that at some point in the past there were threads with at least say 50,000 views.  But there isn't anything close to that amount.
So while the OP has decent assumptions, it turns out that the data does not match his supositions.  First, there never was threads that would indicate most players viewed threads.  Second, that the amount of viewings now are consitent with when the game launched.  Therefore, the number of views is not an indicator of the population of AoC. 

 

Very well put and most reasonable conclusion.

Even though I question the reason why someone would start such a topic, here are some results from the community survey, which was to start mainly posted in the US forums and linked rarely in the EU ones until recently until sticky.

http://forums.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?p=2017701#post2017701

1st:  August 22nd - 30th - Total respondents 1753

 

2nd: Sept 8th - 17th: Total respondants 1341

 

3rd: Sept 27th to Oct 10th: Total respondents 935

 

4th: Oct 24th to Nov 8th: Total respondents 883

 

5th: Nov 12th to Dec 3rd: Total respondents 1040

 

6th: (holiday one) Dec 17th - 31st: Total respondents 736

 

What is interesting is there are more lurkers than posters.

croemar

Age of Conan players seems to be very special:
1.They hardly use X-fire.
2.Most of the players stopped viewing their own official boards, in stark contrast to
3.The ex-Aoc-fanbase, who not only - strange enough all has turned into haters towards their former game, but who seemed to view the official AoC pages with a staggering high frequency when themselves were actively playing.

Somewhere the logic has been lost.

And btw: how come that comical Avery refrained from using viewcounters from release, peakmonths and beyond....is not really beyond me - you have your agenda.

Good observations by OP.
Reasons for the disinterests on forum and with failing playerbase might be: a further disbelief in FC and consumers (further) disinterest in the game as a whole, along with a development team in AoC that must be the slowest team since the Romanian nuclear reasearch institute probed to find the solution to the splitting of the atom.

Crosswire

The AOC forums are now mainly used for idle banter, or for the few with a problem or question.

Problems and questions are in general from new players only just starting out, they later find that all their questions can and will be answered in the game itself.

As stated the majority of the AOC are mature and have the misfortune to have to work for a living, thus the few hours available for play are used for play and not chatting on forums.

I am in the game daily and see first hand many new and returning players and may I say very happy players.

So as for the forums being a little quiet, well, no news is good news .

croemar

Ahh i see, yes. A quite extraordinary playerbase you are indeed.
So very...uncommon. You are so happy ingame that the outside world do not affect you, not even your own boards. The future of this game must be set in stone.

Crosswire

Originally posted by croemar

Ahh i see, yes. A quite extraordinary playerbase you are indeed. So very...uncommon. You are so happy ingame that the outside world do not affect you, not even your own boards. The future of this game must be set in stone.

 

I will stick my neck out here based on experience and say yes, I think the future of AOC is set in stone, it will succeed, no doubt about it.

croemar

For the sake of your prediction please define "succeed".

Crosswire

Originally posted by croemar

For the sake of your prediction please define "succeed".

 

At the moment my divine powers of prophecy are a tad shaky,  therefore I will just say that the sky's the limit.

Its just to good to waste.

nmalthus

Only 5%-10% read the forums and even less post on it. I haven't read the forums in 3-4 months but still actively play.

Trinitarian

I see the logic here: it means, therefore, that games that have no forums have no subscriber-base what-so-ever... Genius!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Litigator_AB

 A lot of speculation could be silenced very fast if Funcom would simply release their subscription numbers.

Because there is MMO in MMORPG people are going to speculate about this.  If it brings about negative publicity the brain trust at Funcom must consider that the backlash coming from negative speculation is less damaging than actually releasing the subscription numbers.

Funcom, unfortunately, due to a lack of other revenue streams cannot hide under this model.  We will know within 20-30,000 subscribers how many people play AoC in 3 weeks.  

The next quarter, due to initial 6 month subscriptions disappearing off the revenue stream, we will know even better.  Probably within 10-15,000.  

So Funcom can run, but it can't hide.  

 

 

Sanguinia

83% of all statistics are made up.