It have the highest sales because it had such large hype and had no other big game around it's release date. But bad game is bad. Age of Conan was billed as a PvP'ers dream by many players. It was theorized that this would syphon off many World of Warcraft subscribers, and it does appear that AoC did quite well in its first week of sales.
There is only one problem with this.
People are leaving AoC (80% of the free month)
I'm among them. I don't have the amount of time it would require to level from 1-80. On top of that, learning a new game and the opportunity cost of playing AoC instead of leveling an alt in World of Warcraft makes AoC seem like a waste of time.
Furthermore, reading about how AoC is punishing gankers by implementing a jail system doesn't exactly encourage me to level.
Systems to discourage ganking in PvE games are probably good.
Systems to discourage ganking in a PvP game aren't good.
I think many of the players aren't keen on leveling up another character. The eventual "WoW killer" or at least a "WoW syphon" will come when gaming companies realize you don't have to have a D+D based level grind to get players to keep playing. This will have to be combined with other gameplay elements that are done better than they are in World of Warcraft. Darkfall Online looks like it might inspire hope. That is, if you don't mind waiting for vaporware. When your MMORPG is mentioned right after Duke Nukem Forever when it comes to vaporware, it might just be time to say "GOLD" it' and release the damn thing already.
So you are saying you (and others) don't play AoC because you don't want to level up a new character (or learn a new game), and because you are a ganker?
So....it has nothing to do with the game being sub-par, or maybe because of Funcoms empty promises?
Wow, thats a first...
PLAYING: NOTHING!!! PLAYED:FFXI, LotRO, AoC, WAR, DDO, Megaten, Wurm, Rohan, Mabinogi, RoM
The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned. EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active. Ind just ignore Avery. Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
First off - Facts NDA was NOT lifted. It was NEVER lifted. Beta testers were NOT allowed to talk about their gaming experience during beta even after launch. Now lets keep that clear cause obviously you have missed this fact. I hope you can clarify this yourself since breaking NDA is not something that MMORPG has taken lightly in the past - even when ppl have been warning others about the true state of games - few days before launch with Pre-Order ads all over the Website. Secondly - Im not stealing my own topic. I just want to keep things based on facts rather than something made up that is supposed to sound as a good advertisement for the game. Its easy to bend few facts when there is noone around to correct ppl. Im pretty sure you would correct me if I said something wrong so I expect I have the same right to correct you. But your right - I was talking about AOC subs in the present game. But however you bend things - there is no way of hiding the past. AOC will always have to face up to what went on before, during and shortly after launch. That is PART of the present this game is living with. Thats probably part of the reason it has fallen from close to 1 million players down to 100-150 k like I suggested. PPL are quick to forget. And then its alot easier to bend the past. Hell... There are even ppl now that say The Holocaust never happened. How many facts are those ppl skipping and bending ? Hopefully there will always be ppl around remind ppl it happend - to prevent it happening again. By stating facts about the Holocaust does not mean that those hate ppl from Germany. Same goes for my perspective about Funcom. FUNCOM tried deliberatly to HIDE information about the game before launch and NDA is NOT lifted like you are here claiming. That is simply not correct and I will risk beeing called stealing this topic in correcting such false statements.
The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned. EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active. Ind just ignore Avery. Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
It have the highest sales because it had such large hype and had no other big game around it's release date. But bad game is bad. Age of Conan was billed as a PvP'ers dream by many players. It was theorized that this would syphon off many World of Warcraft subscribers, and it does appear that AoC did quite well in its first week of sales.
There is only one problem with this.
People are leaving AoC (80% of the free month)
I'm among them. I don't have the amount of time it would require to level from 1-80. On top of that, learning a new game and the opportunity cost of playing AoC instead of leveling an alt in World of Warcraft makes AoC seem like a waste of time.
Furthermore, reading about how AoC is punishing gankers by implementing a jail system doesn't exactly encourage me to level.
Systems to discourage ganking in PvE games are probably good.
Systems to discourage ganking in a PvP game aren't good.
I think many of the players aren't keen on leveling up another character. The eventual "WoW killer" or at least a "WoW syphon" will come when gaming companies realize you don't have to have a D+D based level grind to get players to keep playing. This will have to be combined with other gameplay elements that are done better than they are in World of Warcraft.
Darkfall Online looks like it might inspire hope. That is, if you don't mind waiting for vaporware. When your MMORPG is mentioned right after Duke Nukem Forever when it comes to vaporware, it might just be time to say "GOLD" it' and release the damn thing already.
As for sub numbers- Do you REALLY think it is that simple? A bit of multiplying and dividing and KABUMM you have the numbers.
The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned. EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active. Ind just ignore Avery. Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
Sancher36,
If I might make a suggestion, you should re-read the entirety of this thread, and specifically my contributions to it...
I never said that my calculations were anything but a simple application of statistics, and as we all know, statistics often lie. Nor am I "splashing mathematics" in an attempt to prove any points - I personally couldn't care less if AoC has 300k subs or 30k subs.
The OP suggested AoC had 100k-150k subscribers, others complained that he provided no means of backing up that estimate, and I attempted to illustrate one way that such a claim could be justified (but certainly not proven).
Originally posted by nihce As for sub numbers- Do you REALLY think it is that simple? A bit of multiplying and dividing and KABUMM you have the numbers. { Mod Edit }
No, I don't. I think that a statistical examination is simply one way of looking at things, it's certainly not proof. I think I said that pretty clearly in my disclaimer...
What I do think that my bit of multiplying and dividing does show is that the OP's estimates aren't necessarily unreasonable. They could be completely wrong mind you, but at least there's some data which might confrim he's in the right ballpark.
The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned. EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active. Ind just ignore Avery. Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
Sancher36,
If I might make a suggestion, you should re-read the entirety of this thread, and specifically my contributions to it...
I never said that my calculations were anything but a simple application of statistics, and as we all know, statistics often lie. Nor am I "splashing mathematics" in an attempt to prove any points - I personally couldn't care less if AoC has 300k subs or 30k subs.
The OP suggested AoC had 100k-150k subscribers, others complained that he provided no means of backing up that estimate, and I attempted to illustrate one way that such a claim could be justified (but certainly not proven).
Ok I apologise for that I just think too many ill informed people will skim over it and take it as fact.
Ok I apologise for that I just think too many ill informed people will skim over it and take it as fact.
No worries, no harm done.
And I suspect you're right - sometimes I'm shocked when I see forum posts stating opinions and such, which later will mysteriously wind up being quoted elsewhere as fact. Well perhaps not "shocked" but certainly disappointed at least.
Very open with information ? Say that again AA. You do know you are talking about the company that didn't lift NDA. And the same company had their FORUMS CLOSED TO PUBLIC when game launched to prevent information about the real state of the game coming out. Serioulsy.... Some things can be defended - but there are others that can not. AOC is probably the last game in the genre that will be launched without lifing NDA. Around mililon ppl bought a game based on false promises including such small issues as the first every MMORPG game with DX10 support. Im sorry.... Did Funcom even put the announchment info that DX was not in on their closed "public" forums ? Very open with information what ? This statement from AA pretty much shows everyone that hes not really here to bring out the truth about the game. Hes here only to talk about his/Funcom version of the truth. That truth is about selling a game no matter what. And adding few lies about how Funcom has been open with information sounds pretty nice - But its also sounds alot like the same lies that have been going on from day one of this game title.
The reason for the forums being closed to the public was most likely so that AoC players wouldn't have their forum crashed by a bunch on non-players. I don't remember how long the were restricted, but it wasn't long.
They should have waited until dx10 was ready, but then we probably wouldn't have AoC launch until this year.
Anyway dx10 is suppose to come in next patch and i reckon it will, I haven't seen anything saying it won't.
And it's not like Funcom is different than any other company, all the mmo's are out there to make money, at least enough to keep the wheels going.
They should have waited until dx10 was ready, but then we probably wouldn't have AoC launch until this year.
And would have kept a helluva lot more of it's day one customers. FC wouldn't have been labeled as 'two time losers' or 'liars and thieves', an earned reputation they will probably never get past
My guess is many gamer's will be much more skeptical about any title launched by any company** post-AoC, I'll bet pre-orders will be fewer, and 'pro' reviews won't carry as much weight, and launch days won't bring in crowds as large. I truly think AoC's launch will have a long lasting impact on how MMO companies advertise / hype, and decide when a title is 'launch ready'. FunCom has become a cautionary tale.
My guess would be in that area, too. I don't think AOC did as well as WAR, but while WAR's numbers continue to plummet, I think AOC's might be slowly growing - now that it's playable, and people are able to see what a solid game it is. Maybe as mainstream rigs are catching up, I dunno. In the long run, I'm think AOC might do ok. If it can just surive in the interim.
According to GamerDNA's 2008 report:
Warhammer Online subs are still dropping.
Age of Conan subs are rising sharply.
Lord of the Rings Online & EVE Online are the fastest growing titles (no shit).
World of Warcraft sub-count has effectively leveled off (after it's expansion pack was released)
Granted: that's based on their own user's Xfire activity, so some data might be schewed a little (you have to account for their own increase in members and the fact that some games are more popular on Xfire than others) but it's probably a decent approximation of what's going on with the overall sub-count for each game. You can't actually extract total sub counts from that, but you can extract the direction the game's sub-count is headed in. Those 'fanboys' who've been proclaiming that AoC has seen more players recently do appear to be correct, for the moment.
My guess would be in that area, too. I don't think AOC did as well as WAR, but while WAR's numbers continue to plummet, I think AOC's might be slowly growing - now that it's playable, and people are able to see what a solid game it is. Maybe as mainstream rigs are catching up, I dunno. In the long run, I'm think AOC might do ok. If it can just surive in the interim.
According to GamerDNA's 2008 report:
Warhammer Online subs are still dropping.
Age of Conan subs are rising sharply.
Lord of the Rings Online & EVE Online are the fastest growing titles (no shit).
World of Warcraft sub-count has effectively leveled off (after it's expansion pack was released)
Granted: that's based on their own user's Xfire activity, so some data might be schewed a little (you have to account for their own increase in members and the fact that some games are more popular on Xfire than others) but it's probably a decent approximation of what's going on with the overall sub-count for each game. You can't actually extract total sub counts from that, but you can extract the direction the game's sub-count is headed in. Those 'fanboys' who've been proclaiming that AoC has seen more players recently do appear to be correct, for the moment.
So your interpretation of this: "WAR's companion in the PVP fantasy niche, Age of Conan, was trending downwards before WAR's launch. Logins dropped dramatically during that event, and then resumed the slower bleed. However, AoC can't be counted out of the game in 2009. Its developer doesn't give up easily. Anarchy Online, which I included just for this paragraph's comparison, put up raw numbers close to Dungeons and Dragons Online and EverQuest 2 – and had a much more consistent year than either of those two products – and had an even worse starting year. The numbers for December were very encouraging – players had already played more in the first half of the month than they had in November." is this: "Age of Conan subs are rising sharply."?
The primary problem with subscription figures is that if they are low, publishing them can spell death for a perfectly good game.
AoC is in a difficult position. Despite a dire launch the game in now significantly improved and is, in my opinion, one of the best games in the genre. However, it probably has a low number of subs at present due to the poor launch, although this figure must certainly be increasing given the current state-of-the-game.
Funcom has to fight 3 battles:
a) It needs to continue to improve and develop the game, which it is evidently doing.
b) It needs to encourage players to play it not put them off. In a fickle market, players won’t invest time and to a lesser extent money in a game that they think everyone is leaving, regardless of how good it is. So publishing subscription figures would be an idiotic move.
c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word.
The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. If you were to assess every post ever made on this site and rank it as either positive, negative or neutral the percentages would probably appear as follows:
Positive = 2%
Neutral = 8%
Negative = 90%
For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’.
In a way, I’m a fool to even respond to this post and bump it's speculative and detrimental title back up onto the front page of this site. But who knows, maybe people will read my post and agree with me.
Playing: Ableton Live 8 ~ ragequitcancelsubdeletegamesmashcomputerkillself ~
The primary problem with subscription figures is that if they are low, publishing them can spell death for a perfectly good game. AoC is in a difficult position. Despite a dire launch the game in now significantly improved and is, in my opinion, one of the best games in the genre. However, it probably has a low number of subs at present due to the poor launch, although this figure must certainly be increasing given the current state-of-the-game. Funcom has to fight 3 battles: a) It needs to continue to improve and develop the game, which it is evidently doing. b) It needs to encourage players to play it not put them off. In a fickle market, players won’t invest time and to a lesser extent money in a game that they think everyone is leaving, regardless of how good it is. So publishing subscription figures would be an idiotic move. c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word. The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. If you were to assess every post ever made on this site and rank it as either positive, negative or neutral the percentages would probably appear as follows: Positive = 2%
Neutral = 8%
Negative = 90% For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’. In a way, I’m a fool to even respond to this post and bump it's speculative and detrimental title back up onto the front page of this site. But who knows, maybe people will read my post and agree with me.
I agree with this. Funcom is to blame for creating such a hateful community also. While people were running their mouths about the games issues, here was Funcom stating major success...and knowing it was NOT true.
But, I had faith in the game due to the fact that after playing it, I was spoiled. I did not want to go back to WoW, LOTRO and their stale gameplay, or play WAR and it's ugliness.
So, after the dust settled and Craig came on board to fix the game, I came back, and was impressed. I plan to stick it out and support their efforts.
Funcom learned humility during that time, and it shows.
There is no chest thumping now. And I wish the same would happen for the haters, and they would get of that mountain they are shouting from...
The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned. EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active. Ind just ignore Avery. Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
You know.. people keep saying " You can't do math with Xfire and come up with an accurate guess for subscribers"... Well guess what... Warhammer/EA just proved, once again, that you can. Anyone who followed Xfire KNEW that it had about 300,000 subscribers on Dec 31st.. and they KNOW it has about 250,000 right now. They knew AOC had 400,000 players on June 30th and that Warhammer had 750,000 at launch and 400,000 a month later. Every single time a game posts it's official numbers, xfire had already predicted it.
You have to be careful about 'one time' things though... like the Lotro(now) and Eve(dec) promotions, patches and other 'curiousities' and other one-time events that cause temporary inflated numbers. But otherwise, the subscribers of the major mmorpgs seem to be consistent in their use of xfire. (about 1.5%-2% usage in the west).
it's just amazing that every time a company releases numbers, including AOC back in early summer, that it matches up exactly with what Xfire was saying.... yet 3 months afterwards, people will come back and say " you can't use xfire to predict anything'.
You know.. people keep saying " You can't do math with Xfire and come up with an accurate guess for subscribers"... Well guess what... Warhammer/EA just proved, once again, that you can. Anyone who followed Xfire KNEW that it had about 300,000 subscribers on Dec 31st.. and they KNOW it has about 250,000 right now. They knew AOC had 400,000 players on June 30th and that Warhammer had 750,000 at launch and 400,000 a month later. Every single time a game posts it's official numbers, xfire had already predicted it.
You have to be careful about 'one time' things though... like the Lotro(now) and Eve(dec) promotions, patches and other 'curiousities' and other one-time events that cause temporary inflated numbers. But otherwise, the subscribers of the major mmorpgs seem to be consistent in their use of xfire. (about 1.5%-2% usage in the west).
it's just amazing that every time a company releases numbers, including AOC back in early summer, that it matches up exactly with what Xfire was saying.... yet 3 months afterwards, people will come back and say " you can't use xfire to predict anything'.
Eve 250,000
Warhammer 250,000 (now, not Dec 31st)
Lotro 200,000
AOC 100,000
WOW 5,500,000 ( west only)
Then you turn around and have a game which makes all of this data moot.
City of Heroes.
If we use this "fuzzy math" that someone has created, then CoH has a total of 48k users.
How can this be, when we know FOR a FACT that they have 125k as of the last NCSoft financial report.
The game is only available in the US and EU, which Xfire tracks. So, this officially makes using Xfire math to calculate users a fallacy.
No one will ever know for sure. We can at least do "trends" with Xfire though...and that is UPWARDS for AoC.
c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word. The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’.
While I'd agree with your 3 points in terms of FC's challenges, I think it's neither fair or accurate to say that people are trashing the game "just because". People had, and have, perfectly legit reasons for trashing the game, some of which you even elude to in this post. People were sold a $60 bugfest that promised things at launch that almost a year later it hasn't delivered on.
I was there at the end of beta, looking at a potentially good game that was absolutely not ready for prime time. I watched as they sold that same code on disks for 60+ bucks. They deserve the thrashing they're getting from people, and it's up to them to turn that opinion around.
PS: If this is the most trashed upon game you've ever played, you've obviously not played SWG.
After the merge the servers are packed with people, Even more than they where at launch. This is my opinion and based on my gameplay from the Fury server.
Can you think of any reason that might be true?
I'll help. If you have 10 people in 10 rooms= empty
10 people in one room= packed.
Time will tell if FC can lure people back, and retain them, so they can hit the internal numbers they are shooting for.
The primary problem with subscription figures is that if they are low, publishing them can spell death for a perfectly good game. AoC is in a difficult position. Despite a dire launch the game in now significantly improved and is, in my opinion, one of the best games in the genre. However, it probably has a low number of subs at present due to the poor launch, although this figure must certainly be increasing given the current state-of-the-game. Funcom has to fight 3 battles: a) It needs to continue to improve and develop the game, which it is evidently doing. b) It needs to encourage players to play it not put them off. In a fickle market, players won’t invest time and to a lesser extent money in a game that they think everyone is leaving, regardless of how good it is. So publishing subscription figures would be an idiotic move. c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word. The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. If you were to assess every post ever made on this site and rank it as either positive, negative or neutral the percentages would probably appear as follows: Positive = 2%
Neutral = 8%
Negative = 90% For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’. In a way, I’m a fool to even respond to this post and bump it's speculative and detrimental title back up onto the front page of this site. But who knows, maybe people will read my post and agree with me.
They should hire you but sadly gaming companies would rather have people with very little busines sense, no PR experience and zero experience in dealing with real humans ans the negative emotions that their blunders produce.
After the merge the servers are packed with people, Even more than they where at launch. This is my opinion and based on my gameplay from the Fury server.
Can you think of any reason that might be true?
I'll help. If you have 10 people in 10 rooms= empty
10 people in one room= packed.
Time will tell if FC can lure people back, and retain them, so they can hit the internal numbers they are shooting for.
Well no matter what, the merge was the right call todo and the servers are alive once again.
As for me, I will not return to AOC... I had my fun but i wish players that are sticking to it will get the patches they deserve.
And as for funcom i hope they drown in their own lies.
They should have waited until dx10 was ready, but then we probably wouldn't have AoC launch until this year.
And would have kept a helluva lot more of it's day one customers. FC wouldn't have been labeled as 'two time losers' or 'liars and thieves', an earned reputation they will probably never get past
My guess is many gamer's will be much more skeptical about any title launched by any company** post-AoC, I'll bet pre-orders will be fewer, and 'pro' reviews won't carry as much weight, and launch days won't bring in crowds as large. I truly think AoC's launch will have a long lasting impact on how MMO companies advertise / hype, and decide when a title is 'launch ready'. FunCom has become a cautionary tale.
** Except Blizzard - and no I am not a fan
Well i would have waited for it another year, been happy too, but I reckon there was some money issues involved.
It's not like funcom is the only ones releasing buggy games though, or games that doesn't live up to expectations, so I wouldn't say Funcom is so much worse than others.
Afaik Vanguard, Light and Dark, Tabula rasa, and Warhammer to some extent.
Anyway a little skepticism never hurt anyone, people should be more descerning and not jump into a game that hasn't been reviewed. So I have no sympathy for those that have to be first online at launch and rush to endgame, they can blame themselves for not being more cautious, even if Funcom released AoC unfinished.
As for me i never saw anything gamebreaking, but there were times i got slightly annoyed ( the ambient sound bug hurt my ears a bit, but it was fixed by next patch)
After a full night of calculation using the same method you used.
I agree with your results and I can also forsee that Darkfall will have 15 million subs one week after launch.
Dont question my calculations, you wouldnt understand them for you see I did some very advanced math in high school. Stuff involving multipliactions and all that advanced stuff.
I'm not a no life that sits in front of his computer all day long, I'm an intern that sits in front of his computer all day long.
It's not like funcom is the only ones releasing buggy games though, or games that doesn't live up to expectations, so I wouldn't say Funcom is so much worse than others. Afaik Vanguard, Light and Dark, Tabula rasa, and Warhammer to some extent.
I think you make a very telling point , Age of Conan can be easily grouped with the most historic failures in the MMO genre.
Comments
So you are saying you (and others) don't play AoC because you don't want to level up a new character (or learn a new game), and because you are a ganker?
So....it has nothing to do with the game being sub-par, or maybe because of Funcoms empty promises?
Wow, thats a first...
PLAYING: NOTHING!!!
PLAYED:FFXI, LotRO, AoC, WAR, DDO, Megaten, Wurm, Rohan, Mabinogi, RoM
WAITING FOR: Dust 514
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
People*
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
As for sub numbers- Do you REALLY think it is that simple? A bit of multiplying and dividing and KABUMM you have the numbers.
{ Mod Edit }
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
Sancher36,
If I might make a suggestion, you should re-read the entirety of this thread, and specifically my contributions to it...
I never said that my calculations were anything but a simple application of statistics, and as we all know, statistics often lie. Nor am I "splashing mathematics" in an attempt to prove any points - I personally couldn't care less if AoC has 300k subs or 30k subs.
The OP suggested AoC had 100k-150k subscribers, others complained that he provided no means of backing up that estimate, and I attempted to illustrate one way that such a claim could be justified (but certainly not proven).
No, I don't. I think that a statistical examination is simply one way of looking at things, it's certainly not proof. I think I said that pretty clearly in my disclaimer...
What I do think that my bit of multiplying and dividing does show is that the OP's estimates aren't necessarily unreasonable. They could be completely wrong mind you, but at least there's some data which might confrim he's in the right ballpark.
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
Sancher36,
If I might make a suggestion, you should re-read the entirety of this thread, and specifically my contributions to it...
I never said that my calculations were anything but a simple application of statistics, and as we all know, statistics often lie. Nor am I "splashing mathematics" in an attempt to prove any points - I personally couldn't care less if AoC has 300k subs or 30k subs.
The OP suggested AoC had 100k-150k subscribers, others complained that he provided no means of backing up that estimate, and I attempted to illustrate one way that such a claim could be justified (but certainly not proven).
Ok I apologise for that
I just think too many ill informed people will skim over it and take it as fact.
No worries, no harm done.
And I suspect you're right - sometimes I'm shocked when I see forum posts stating opinions and such, which later will mysteriously wind up being quoted elsewhere as fact. Well perhaps not "shocked" but certainly disappointed at least.
The reason for the forums being closed to the public was most likely so that AoC players wouldn't have their forum crashed by a bunch on non-players. I don't remember how long the were restricted, but it wasn't long.
They should have waited until dx10 was ready, but then we probably wouldn't have AoC launch until this year.
Anyway dx10 is suppose to come in next patch and i reckon it will, I haven't seen anything saying it won't.
And it's not like Funcom is different than any other company, all the mmo's are out there to make money, at least enough to keep the wheels going.
And would have kept a helluva lot more of it's day one customers. FC wouldn't have been labeled as 'two time losers' or 'liars and thieves', an earned reputation they will probably never get past
My guess is many gamer's will be much more skeptical about any title launched by any company** post-AoC, I'll bet pre-orders will be fewer, and 'pro' reviews won't carry as much weight, and launch days won't bring in crowds as large. I truly think AoC's launch will have a long lasting impact on how MMO companies advertise / hype, and decide when a title is 'launch ready'. FunCom has become a cautionary tale.
** Except Blizzard - and no I am not a fan
According to GamerDNA's 2008 report:
Granted: that's based on their own user's Xfire activity, so some data might be schewed a little (you have to account for their own increase in members and the fact that some games are more popular on Xfire than others) but it's probably a decent approximation of what's going on with the overall sub-count for each game. You can't actually extract total sub counts from that, but you can extract the direction the game's sub-count is headed in. Those 'fanboys' who've been proclaiming that AoC has seen more players recently do appear to be correct, for the moment.
See: http://www.massively.com/2008/12/29/gamerdna-and-massively-look-back-at-the-mmo-year-in-review/
According to GamerDNA's 2008 report:
Granted: that's based on their own user's Xfire activity, so some data might be schewed a little (you have to account for their own increase in members and the fact that some games are more popular on Xfire than others) but it's probably a decent approximation of what's going on with the overall sub-count for each game. You can't actually extract total sub counts from that, but you can extract the direction the game's sub-count is headed in. Those 'fanboys' who've been proclaiming that AoC has seen more players recently do appear to be correct, for the moment.
See: http://www.massively.com/2008/12/29/gamerdna-and-massively-look-back-at-the-mmo-year-in-review/
So your interpretation of this: "WAR's companion in the PVP fantasy niche, Age of Conan, was trending downwards before WAR's launch. Logins dropped dramatically during that event, and then resumed the slower bleed. However, AoC can't be counted out of the game in 2009. Its developer doesn't give up easily. Anarchy Online, which I included just for this paragraph's comparison, put up raw numbers close to Dungeons and Dragons Online and EverQuest 2 – and had a much more consistent year than either of those two products – and had an even worse starting year. The numbers for December were very encouraging – players had already played more in the first half of the month than they had in November." is this: "Age of Conan subs are rising sharply."?
The primary problem with subscription figures is that if they are low, publishing them can spell death for a perfectly good game.
AoC is in a difficult position. Despite a dire launch the game in now significantly improved and is, in my opinion, one of the best games in the genre. However, it probably has a low number of subs at present due to the poor launch, although this figure must certainly be increasing given the current state-of-the-game.
Funcom has to fight 3 battles:
a) It needs to continue to improve and develop the game, which it is evidently doing.
b) It needs to encourage players to play it not put them off. In a fickle market, players won’t invest time and to a lesser extent money in a game that they think everyone is leaving, regardless of how good it is. So publishing subscription figures would be an idiotic move.
c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word.
The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. If you were to assess every post ever made on this site and rank it as either positive, negative or neutral the percentages would probably appear as follows:
Positive = 2%
Neutral = 8%
Negative = 90%
For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’.
In a way, I’m a fool to even respond to this post and bump it's speculative and detrimental title back up onto the front page of this site. But who knows, maybe people will read my post and agree with me.
Playing: Ableton Live 8
~ ragequitcancelsubdeletegamesmashcomputerkillself ~
I agree with this. Funcom is to blame for creating such a hateful community also. While people were running their mouths about the games issues, here was Funcom stating major success...and knowing it was NOT true.
But, I had faith in the game due to the fact that after playing it, I was spoiled. I did not want to go back to WoW, LOTRO and their stale gameplay, or play WAR and it's ugliness.
So, after the dust settled and Craig came on board to fix the game, I came back, and was impressed. I plan to stick it out and support their efforts.
Funcom learned humility during that time, and it shows.
There is no chest thumping now. And I wish the same would happen for the haters, and they would get of that mountain they are shouting from...
Good post, and cheers
Quite possibly. I hadn't heard those other numbers. Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant.
If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:
(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3
And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:
Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.
Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.
You know.. people keep saying " You can't do math with Xfire and come up with an accurate guess for subscribers"... Well guess what... Warhammer/EA just proved, once again, that you can. Anyone who followed Xfire KNEW that it had about 300,000 subscribers on Dec 31st.. and they KNOW it has about 250,000 right now. They knew AOC had 400,000 players on June 30th and that Warhammer had 750,000 at launch and 400,000 a month later. Every single time a game posts it's official numbers, xfire had already predicted it.
You have to be careful about 'one time' things though... like the Lotro(now) and Eve(dec) promotions, patches and other 'curiousities' and other one-time events that cause temporary inflated numbers. But otherwise, the subscribers of the major mmorpgs seem to be consistent in their use of xfire. (about 1.5%-2% usage in the west).
it's just amazing that every time a company releases numbers, including AOC back in early summer, that it matches up exactly with what Xfire was saying.... yet 3 months afterwards, people will come back and say " you can't use xfire to predict anything'.
Eve 250,000
Warhammer 250,000 (now, not Dec 31st)
Lotro 200,000
AOC 100,000
WOW 5,500,000 ( west only)
You know.. people keep saying " You can't do math with Xfire and come up with an accurate guess for subscribers"... Well guess what... Warhammer/EA just proved, once again, that you can. Anyone who followed Xfire KNEW that it had about 300,000 subscribers on Dec 31st.. and they KNOW it has about 250,000 right now. They knew AOC had 400,000 players on June 30th and that Warhammer had 750,000 at launch and 400,000 a month later. Every single time a game posts it's official numbers, xfire had already predicted it.
You have to be careful about 'one time' things though... like the Lotro(now) and Eve(dec) promotions, patches and other 'curiousities' and other one-time events that cause temporary inflated numbers. But otherwise, the subscribers of the major mmorpgs seem to be consistent in their use of xfire. (about 1.5%-2% usage in the west).
it's just amazing that every time a company releases numbers, including AOC back in early summer, that it matches up exactly with what Xfire was saying.... yet 3 months afterwards, people will come back and say " you can't use xfire to predict anything'.
Eve 250,000
Warhammer 250,000 (now, not Dec 31st)
Lotro 200,000
AOC 100,000
WOW 5,500,000 ( west only)
Then you turn around and have a game which makes all of this data moot.
City of Heroes.
If we use this "fuzzy math" that someone has created, then CoH has a total of 48k users.
How can this be, when we know FOR a FACT that they have 125k as of the last NCSoft financial report.
The game is only available in the US and EU, which Xfire tracks. So, this officially makes using Xfire math to calculate users a fallacy.
No one will ever know for sure. We can at least do "trends" with Xfire though...and that is UPWARDS for AoC.
Cheers
While I'd agree with your 3 points in terms of FC's challenges, I think it's neither fair or accurate to say that people are trashing the game "just because". People had, and have, perfectly legit reasons for trashing the game, some of which you even elude to in this post. People were sold a $60 bugfest that promised things at launch that almost a year later it hasn't delivered on.
I was there at the end of beta, looking at a potentially good game that was absolutely not ready for prime time. I watched as they sold that same code on disks for 60+ bucks. They deserve the thrashing they're getting from people, and it's up to them to turn that opinion around.
PS: If this is the most trashed upon game you've ever played, you've obviously not played SWG.
After the merge the servers are packed with people, Even more than they where at launch.
This is my opinion and based on my gameplay from the Fury server.
Can you think of any reason that might be true?
I'll help. If you have 10 people in 10 rooms= empty
10 people in one room= packed.
Time will tell if FC can lure people back, and retain them, so they can hit the internal numbers they are shooting for.
They should hire you but sadly gaming companies would rather have people with very little busines sense, no PR experience and zero experience in dealing with real humans ans the negative emotions that their blunders produce.
Hopefully someday a company will get it right.
Can you think of any reason that might be true?
I'll help. If you have 10 people in 10 rooms= empty
10 people in one room= packed.
Time will tell if FC can lure people back, and retain them, so they can hit the internal numbers they are shooting for.
Well no matter what, the merge was the right call todo and the servers are alive once again.
As for me, I will not return to AOC... I had my fun but i wish players that are sticking to it will get the patches they deserve.
And as for funcom i hope they drown in their own lies.
And would have kept a helluva lot more of it's day one customers. FC wouldn't have been labeled as 'two time losers' or 'liars and thieves', an earned reputation they will probably never get past
My guess is many gamer's will be much more skeptical about any title launched by any company** post-AoC, I'll bet pre-orders will be fewer, and 'pro' reviews won't carry as much weight, and launch days won't bring in crowds as large. I truly think AoC's launch will have a long lasting impact on how MMO companies advertise / hype, and decide when a title is 'launch ready'. FunCom has become a cautionary tale.
** Except Blizzard - and no I am not a fan
Well i would have waited for it another year, been happy too, but I reckon there was some money issues involved.
It's not like funcom is the only ones releasing buggy games though, or games that doesn't live up to expectations, so I wouldn't say Funcom is so much worse than others.
Afaik Vanguard, Light and Dark, Tabula rasa, and Warhammer to some extent.
Anyway a little skepticism never hurt anyone, people should be more descerning and not jump into a game that hasn't been reviewed. So I have no sympathy for those that have to be first online at launch and rush to endgame, they can blame themselves for not being more cautious, even if Funcom released AoC unfinished.
As for me i never saw anything gamebreaking, but there were times i got slightly annoyed ( the ambient sound bug hurt my ears a bit, but it was fixed by next patch)
After a full night of calculation using the same method you used.
I agree with your results and I can also forsee that Darkfall will have 15 million subs one week after launch.
Dont question my calculations, you wouldnt understand them for you see I did some very advanced math in high school. Stuff involving multipliactions and all that advanced stuff.
I'm not a no life that sits in front of his computer all day long, I'm an intern that sits in front of his computer all day long.
I think you make a very telling point , Age of Conan can be easily grouped with the most historic failures in the MMO genre.