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Stop (for now at least) trying to guess how many subscriptions AoC has.
Litigator_AB
Member Posts: 311
When Funcom releases its October to December numbers you will have a better idea. Until then it is pure guesswork.
And because the 6 month subscription income that came from the first month of sales effectively came to a halt at the end of Dec/08, the financial numbers from Q2 (in May) will be even more accurate. Within 10,000 eitherway...so just wait. Age of Conan's reckoning time (good or bad) will be upon us soon.
Q1 will still be a good indicator...but will be skewed higher due to a whole section of revenue coming from players who haven't logged in (literally) for 5 (edit: 8) months.
Comments
eh... I gave up last quarter when they included that magic $6M from out of nowhere. This is a company, which for 2 quarters in a row now has totally messed up their own accounting and had to go back and revise things in a major way. It's not uncommon for a company to have to revise their earnings.. but it is usually in the magnitude of < 10%. Funcom has been off by >30% twice already.
Probably the best information we get from Funcom when they release their numbers for 4Q is what the big 'mistake' was they made in the 3Q. I'm curious to see if they do something with that 6M.
I wonder what Azrile is going to say. It's february and no word of a bankruptcy yet
Hmmm... Azrile used to have daily lectures about this magic 6 M, which you guys only seem to know so much about?? Are you sure that you don't know Azrile a bit better that you pretend?
For a user that Joined: 2/05/09, you seem to be exceptionally familiar with the history of the AoC Forums here at MMORPG.com ....Pot / Kettle irony at it's finest.
doesnt hurt anyone by speculating. And didnt funcom say they will no longer be releaseing sub numbers?
Apart from them being forced to post the subscriber numbers for AoC by investors back in august, Funcom has a policy for not posting these numbers. Don't ask me why... It was/is just the same with Anarchy Online.
Because when the numbers suck they dont want anyone to know. If they had 1 million subs you can guarantee they would be publishing those numbers. When they have around 50-60k subs its best to hide thier heads in the sand.
Pin the Tail on the Shrinking Donkey ....
Wow! This stuff is serious business I see! I guess I just like playing games without diving into their financial literature to try and prove something or other.
You are playing a video game. By definition that means you are not hardcore.
Hmmm... Azrile used to have daily lectures about this magic 6 M, which you guys only seem to know so much about?? Are you sure that you don't know Azrile a bit better that you pretend?
Go to the funcom main site and read their financial report from last quarter. The very last line talks about the mysterious 6M. They don't explain where it comes from at all, just that it was 'found' and added to their numbers.
Funcom does not release the numbers of Age of Conan. Unfortunately for Funcom, because other than the 1 million a quarter they make from Anarchy Online (which has been consistently within $200k US every quarter for the last 2 years) all of the money comes from Age of Conan.
The only tricky part before was trying to factor out sales of the box and direct2drive variety. But let's face it, those numbers are a paltry part of Funcom's income now. The rest comes from Age of Conan subscriptions. And then the rest is just math.
Funcom's guidance is 8-10 million US for Q4, or essentially half of what they made Q3. If Funcom's numbers are in that range it wil be very easy to parse the "other" income and use the remaining number to figure out how many people are paying for Age of Conan.
Damn Lit I've got to hand it to you. That was one interesting post.
Great information
Well Done-Thanks for sharing.
EDIT: I actually meant to post this in your other post titled Q1/09 update. My appologies for raising the wrong post
We already know it did not meet projections, despite what the "OMG so many people are coming back" crowed says. In reality I played on an acount for two hours, on Tyrany - the game is dead, player wise if compared to any server from release...then it's empty from a lack of content.
I would be impressed if AoC kept 1 in 20 players that purchased the game. AoC isn't a niche game, it just failed to do ANYTHING (meaning game play focuses) well or better than it's competitors.
Funcom has reviewed all of its assets relevant for
impairment testing. This process has led to
recognition of an impairment loss of around
3,1 MUSD for Age of Conan due to a decrease in
numbers of subscribers for the game. Funcom Q4 10 report.
http://forums.ageofconan.com/showpost.php?p=2926123&postcount=7 500 mains/alts on Tyranny in past 30 days - instead of merge servers let's open a new PvP server, again! http://forums-eu.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=106427
You couldn't have possibly played on Tyranny recently and have this opinion.
It couldn't be further from the truth.
I'm not an AoC fanboi but the changes the Devs are making are not only keeping players but bringing in new subs.
Tyranny had 7 PACKED Keshetta instances last night and even the new PvP server Agony is starting to fill up.
A lot of the mid-level zones like Field of the Dead have 2-3 instances up during most of the day.
Low level zones are completely zerged with players as well.
Cimmeria PvP - RP server is just as packed.
The new 1.04 patch I tested on the testlive server is really great.
When you do get a chance to actually test out the game again at level 80 come back here and post an honest review.
edit: http://www.xfire.com/games/aoc/Age_of_Conan_Hyborian_Adventures/
AoC is staying in the top 50 and has been maintaining it's 7k hours throughout Jan/Feb.
Sure it's down from 40k hours which was it's peak at release but the fact it's picking up again is very promising.
We will see what kind of impact Darkfall has on it.
You couldn't have possibly played on Tyranny recently and have this opinion.
It couldn't be further from the truth.
I'm not an AoC fanboi but the changes the Devs are making are not only keeping players but bringing in new subs.
Tyranny had 7 PACKED Keshetta instances last night and even the new PvP server Agony is starting to fill up.
A lot of the mid-level zones like Field of the Dead have 2-3 instances up during most of the day.
Low level zones are completely zerged with players as well.
Cimmeria PvP - RP server is just as packed.
The new 1.04 patch I tested on the testlive server is really great.
When you do get a chance to actually test out the game again at level 80 come back here and post an honest review.
edit: http://www.xfire.com/games/aoc/Age_of_Conan_Hyborian_Adventures/
AoC is staying in the top 50 and has been maintaining it's 7k hours throughout Jan/Feb.
Sure it's down from 40k hours which was it's peak at release but the fact it's picking up again is very promising.
We will see what kind of impact Darkfall has on it.
EDIT: BTW I was talking about players, maybe 100 million people subscribe, but the world lacks players.
What changes? Hype? People could have looked past the bugs if the core of this game had something to it and it had content to back it up. FC spent 9 months bug fixing ;p
I already addressed the low population issue and the ONLY endgame area being the exception.....at release most zones had 6-7 instances running.....I played on Doomslayer and there were way more servers...people probably are not playing as often but the game still feels empty.
Now your point is that the ONLY place where end game players congregate has multiple instances. Big deal, even if there are 500 level 80s jammed in that instance it does not make my information less correct as most players should be at level cap.
I just did a look up here are the results, by searching through every class x level range:
181 level 80s,
80 level 70s-79s,
5 Kesh instances
WoW 300 players, blowing my mind.
The world is pretty empty, maybe they decreased the number of players that could be in an instance as towns and cities and areas before instances, etc used to be jammed packed with players and now I may see a player in town or two more doing some quest......the world is dead, player wise.
Again, at release the entire world had more players per instance and more instances and there were more servers....so 1-20 players compared to the first month is being VERY generous.
****
Funcom has reviewed all of its assets relevant for
impairment testing. This process has led to
recognition of an impairment loss of around
3,1 MUSD for Age of Conan due to a decrease in
numbers of subscribers for the game. Funcom Q4 10 report.
http://forums.ageofconan.com/showpost.php?p=2926123&postcount=7 500 mains/alts on Tyranny in past 30 days - instead of merge servers let's open a new PvP server, again! http://forums-eu.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=106427
You couldn't have possibly played on Tyranny recently and have this opinion.
It couldn't be further from the truth.
I too just recently came to this opinon. His information is sooo wrong, out of date by many months it is like a bad joke.
Tyranny is a PVP server, when you search someone it tells you exactly where you are. You may not wish to be discoverable, especially on a PVP server. Therefore not only is the search borked, it doesn't tell you how many people are hidden. Your natively searching for people tagged as LFG. In a 2 hour window on the quietest day of the week in for any sub based mmo.
NVM. Some of us can log in and not really worry about being told the game is dead, the server is dead, everything is broken etc etc because everything around us is totally the opposite.
As for the OP - Why did you make this thread asking to stop predicting numbers before such and such info is released yet it is ok for you to make another thread to do exactly what you say not too here?
Is it me or does not that make sense?