Because a certain trollish presence in this thread has gotten annoying: Based on this statement, I estimate that as of August 2007 LotRO had approximately 200,000 subscribers. Inside sources place the number of active subscribers at 150,000 as of December 2007 Taken from: http://www.mmogchart.com/analysis-and-conclusions/ Which is about the most knowledgable site you will find on MMO subscription levels out there. Even if it seems a bit inactive and hasn't accounted for any of the 2008 activity yet really.
You should have read on where the author then says his source was unreliable, but refuses to update the figures to make it clear 150K is bogus.
"Dirk, there’s been some discussion of this over om the MMORPG forums, and while I stand by the 200K-300K estimate earlier, the more recent 150K number may be mistaken on the part of the source. However, there’s little I can do at this point until I get another source inside Turbine or until Turbine provides some official data."
So 150K is wrong, and we are back to 200K-300K?
"Jarish, regarding LotRO, I haven’t seen NPD’s raw numbers yet so I’m not sure exactly where they have it pegged. They rely on surveys, and their survey period was November through March, so they could have caught LotRO during it’s busier period before it started to go back down. Or perhaps my latest number is wrong. Nevertheless, if it’s larger than FFXI in the US that would still put it in the 200K - 300K range; unlikely to be 500K."
Guess now at 200K-300K doesn't think as high as 500K
Then in response to:
"On your charts you decreased LOTRO’s sub count from 200k to 150k. Yet the trend I have felt while playing the game and talking to fellow LOTRO players is that server populations have been going up. In fact I’m not surprised that LOTRO is ranked #3 in the NPD report. I have long felt that to be true as the game is quite popular both here in the US as well as in Europe. I’m pretty sure it beats out FFXI on all fronts. There is no doubt in my mind that LOTRO is above the 500k mark."
we get
"Well I’m starting to suspect you may be right, but I need some guidance from Turbine before I’m willing to make any corrections."
Indicating the author now thinks it might be 500K!
Conclusion the author has no idea. I have sympathy that he is trying to do an impossible job with this number, but if you can't decide if it is 150K or 500K, probably best not to publish anything or you get people quoting figures in ignorance.
Yeah, if LotRO is so successful as some people claims in this thread then I think that Turbine would have announced it with bells and whistles already.
I personally think that the sub numbers are less than 100k now but thats just my gut feeling.
I read someone that publicly traded company can't release their sub numbers, it has nothing to do with them being low.
They tried to release some sort of a sub numbers to gain other players intrested. But since their sub is low, they come out with this 4mil charac created...... thing.
Not that Turbine is a bad company, seeing they have improve with LOTR, but i really hope for their sake, they have more innovative idea, else their game will be very boring. If their next mmo fail ( less than 500k sub) than i think it will be their last venture in this gene.
You need 500k to not be a failure??
And what does the 4million character thing have to do with sub-numbers? Its Turibnes policy not to reveal sub numbers period... Characters created was just a marketing ploy giving out somekind of number that doenst give anything away.. Turbine and everyone else knows they are not close to WoWs numbers and will never be so releaseing the numbers have no purpose.
Turbine is an independet company which meeans they dont have to show any numbers to the public.
If WoW = The Beatles and WAR = Led Zeppelin Then LotrO = Pink Floyd
Depends what the company deems a failure isn't it, some may be realistic with their sub estimates and be happy with 100k subs to cut even or make a profit, who are we to decide what is profitable and what isn't when there are games out there that seem to defy that very logic, I mean if it's true that Neocron2 has about 6k subs then how come it's still going?
I would dare not try to understand why 1 company deems having so few customers as being worthwhile in keeping the servers going but they do and let us be glad that such companies are still around because if it was left to those that had millions of customers what choices are we as gamers left with then? not bloody many at all.
Depends what the company deems a failure isn't it, some may be realistic with their sub estimates and be happy with 100k subs to cut even or make a profit, who are we to decide what is profitable and what isn't when there are games out there that seem to defy that very logic, I mean if it's true that Neocron2 has about 6k subs then how come it's still going? I would dare not try to understand why 1 company deems having so few customers as being worthwhile in keeping the servers going but they do and let us be glad that such companies are still around because if it was left to those that had millions of customers what choices are we as gamers left with then? not bloody many at all.
Agree, vive la difference!
Turbine have shown they will close a MMO if they need to. The fact they are not closing AC1, LOTRO or DDO would indicate they are making money from at least some of them. My own suspicion is that LOTRO is a lot bigger than people want to believe (should probably point out I tried it and it wasn't for me, but was hard to ignore it would have mass appeal).
The fact is Turbine are making another MMO and more importantly were able to get funding to do so. End of subject really, hope that doesn't come as too great a disappointment to the people still sore over Turbine winning lots of MMORPG awards.
Conclusion the author has no idea. I have sympathy that he is trying to do an impossible job with this number, but if you can't decide if it is 150K or 500K, probably best not to publish anything or you get people quoting figures in ignorance.
Actually, no and I did read the whole thing. I'm a regular fan of their work. The point of posting that was that there are "estimates" out there based on facts and public information. That site has generally done a damn good job of tracking sub numbers and always posts their reservations, caveats and whatnot. I'm not out to prove any specific sub level here, just show that the person claiming under 100k is way off base according to the most reasonable source available.
Conclusion the author has no idea. I have sympathy that he is trying to do an impossible job with this number, but if you can't decide if it is 150K or 500K, probably best not to publish anything or you get people quoting figures in ignorance.
Actually, no and I did read the whole thing. I'm a regular fan of their work. The point of posting that was that there are "estimates" out there based on facts and public information. That site has generally done a damn good job of tracking sub numbers and always posts their reservations, caveats and whatnot. I'm not out to prove any specific sub level here, just show that the person claiming under 100k is way off base according to the most reasonable source available.
If you did indeed read it, you should have known better than to quote figures that even the author isn't happy with. A lot of people are too lazy to check if what they are being told isn't pure fantasy.
You're pointlessly nitpicking. Why not quote the best-guess figures from what is widely regarded as the best source out there for that kind of information? I made no claims as to their precision and the site itself explains ALL their estimates with that kind of ratings disclaimer, very few MMO sub numbers are "solid". I'm a little baffled why you seem to feel this is something to argue over. I'm not trying to use the source to prove some claim of specific subscription numbers, simply showing how far off the "under 100k" estimate probably is, according to the best source available.
Depends what the company deems a failure isn't it, some may be realistic with their sub estimates and be happy with 100k subs to cut even or make a profit, who are we to decide what is profitable and what isn't when there are games out there that seem to defy that very logic, I mean if it's true that Neocron2 has about 6k subs then how come it's still going? I would dare not try to understand why 1 company deems having so few customers as being worthwhile in keeping the servers going but they do and let us be glad that such companies are still around because if it was left to those that had millions of customers what choices are we as gamers left with then? not bloody many at all.
With the Lord of the Rings IP Turbine should be able to have atleast a couple of million subs so in that regard is LotRO a failure.
You may think that LotRO is the most fun MMORPG that you have ever played but that's not the point.
Neocron 2 may stay afloat on 6k subs because they have no devs working on new content, no GM:s and no custom support.
You can't really compare the world of Tolkien with some unknown sci-fi MMO.
The thread is about whether Turbine will make another MMO, not what LoTRO's sub numbers are.
I think the Harry Potter MMO is very likely but it will be geared towards the younger crowd in my opinion. I don't think fans of this site would like a Harry Potter MMO and it will probably be marketed to teens.
DDO combat, instances and character creation are at the top of the genre.
LoTRO is getting better with time and has an amazing world and community.
AC was one of the greatest pvp games of all time and was my favorite out of UO and EQ. AC2 was also a very fun game and WoW borrowed so much from that game.
Now if they can take all the strengths they have now with their experience and development platform as well as all the great systems from their other games, they could hit a huge homerun.
What Turbine really needs to do when they release a new game is get a station pass thing going. If they made a new AC included DDO and LoTRO for 25 bucks a month, I would be signed up instantly.
Within this very thread the problem with the MMO community reveals itself.
Everyone thinks they're smarter than they really are.
There is really no way to guess a games subs, and any attempt to do so would be just that. A guess. There is really no way to measure a games success aside from your personal involvement or the involvement of people you know.
Its funny to see people call DDO a failure. The game has been running for what, 3 years now. And from what I can tell they are still releasing major content updates for free. If Turbine were losing money (which is what i would consider a failure) I'm sure they would discontinue support for it. There are games that fold within the first year.
You're pointlessly nitpicking. Why not quote the best-guess figures from what is widely regarded as the best source out there for that kind of information? I made no claims as to their precision and the site itself explains ALL their estimates with that kind of ratings disclaimer, very few MMO sub numbers are "solid". I'm a little baffled why you seem to feel this is something to argue over. I'm not trying to use the source to prove some claim of specific subscription numbers, simply showing how far off the "under 100k" estimate probably is, according to the best source available.
Apologies if I seem like I am arguing for the sake of it. Quoting unreliable sources, just because there is nothing better out there is one of my pet hates, nothing personal.
Slightly at a tangent but he actually marks LOTRO as a group B, which indicates a good source which he clearly doesn't have by his own admission. But that is just me nitpicking.
They can't live on LotRO forever and honestly it hasn't done all that well. They could be making Asheron's Call 3 but they won't tell. DDO is on it's demise but was really no surprise.
Wha?! Im not a fan of LotRO but I will say that it has done very well. Next to WoW probably the most successful to come out since. Which has done better?
Also, I just downloaded the DDO trial not too long ago and while it was not for me I could tell that it is certainly not on its demise. There were tons of new players and all the old players were ready and willing to help newbs. They just added a new module and people are coming back. Its a steady going game.
Depends what the company deems a failure isn't it, some may be realistic with their sub estimates and be happy with 100k subs to cut even or make a profit, who are we to decide what is profitable and what isn't when there are games out there that seem to defy that very logic, I mean if it's true that Neocron2 has about 6k subs then how come it's still going? I would dare not try to understand why 1 company deems having so few customers as being worthwhile in keeping the servers going but they do and let us be glad that such companies are still around because if it was left to those that had millions of customers what choices are we as gamers left with then? not bloody many at all.
With the Lord of the Rings IP Turbine should be able to have atleast a couple of million subs so in that regard is LotRO a failure.
You may think that LotRO is the most fun MMORPG that you have ever played but that's not the point.
Neocron 2 may stay afloat on 6k subs because they have no devs working on new content, no GM:s and no custom support.
You can't really compare the world of Tolkien with some unknown sci-fi MMO.
Depends what the company deems a failure isn't it, some may be realistic with their sub estimates and be happy with 100k subs to cut even or make a profit, who are we to decide what is profitable and what isn't when there are games out there that seem to defy that very logic, I mean if it's true that Neocron2 has about 6k subs then how come it's still going? I would dare not try to understand why 1 company deems having so few customers as being worthwhile in keeping the servers going but they do and let us be glad that such companies are still around because if it was left to those that had millions of customers what choices are we as gamers left with then? not bloody many at all.
With the Lord of the Rings IP Turbine should be able to have atleast a couple of million subs so in that regard is LotRO a failure.
You may think that LotRO is the most fun MMORPG that you have ever played but that's not the point.
Neocron 2 may stay afloat on 6k subs because they have no devs working on new content, no GM:s and no custom support.
You can't really compare the world of Tolkien with some unknown sci-fi MMO.
Most unintelligent post ever.
I must agree with you there. I think his reasoning is somehow...off. Anyway, I think the question has been answered. YES, turbine is making another MMO.
I think Turbine did a fantastic job on Lotro and besides Blizzard they would be the #1 company to host another MMO.
I agree with you there. I would buy any future game that those 2 companies put out.
Different kinds of companies but I respect them both for very different reasons. I love Blizzard's game engine and the fluid game play and I love Turbine's high quality in their games and the insanely HUGE free updates.
IF Turbine did launch another MMO- would that be a MMO company record? To have 4 live MMO's online at one time?
Just an improved AC2 with even more lore, would be best forget ac1 its to old.
Games played:AC1-Darktide'99-2000-AC2-Darktide/dawnsong2003-2005,Lineage2-2005-2006 and now Darkfall-2009..... In between WoW few months AoC few months and some f2p also all very short few weeks.
After the fantastic job they did converting lord of the rings from book to game world I would love to see them attempt to create a harry potter online, sadly this may never happen
Because the Harry Potter IP will probably end up with some stupid nibwit studio with too much grey cash and sleek talk and fuck up another great IP, like has happened to Star Wars (and again with the new one), Conan, Matrix and soon also Star Trek.
Comments
You should have read on where the author then says his source was unreliable, but refuses to update the figures to make it clear 150K is bogus.
http://www.mmogchart.com/2008/04/08/version-23.0-available/
Quotes from the author:
"Dirk, there’s been some discussion of this over om the MMORPG forums, and while I stand by the 200K-300K estimate earlier, the more recent 150K number may be mistaken on the part of the source. However, there’s little I can do at this point until I get another source inside Turbine or until Turbine provides some official data."
So 150K is wrong, and we are back to 200K-300K?
"Jarish, regarding LotRO, I haven’t seen NPD’s raw numbers yet so I’m not sure exactly where they have it pegged. They rely on surveys, and their survey period was November through March, so they could have caught LotRO during it’s busier period before it started to go back down. Or perhaps my latest number is wrong. Nevertheless, if it’s larger than FFXI in the US that would still put it in the 200K - 300K range; unlikely to be 500K."
Guess now at 200K-300K doesn't think as high as 500K
Then in response to:
"On your charts you decreased LOTRO’s sub count from 200k to 150k. Yet the trend I have felt while playing the game and talking to fellow LOTRO players is that server populations have been going up. In fact I’m not surprised that LOTRO is ranked #3 in the NPD report. I have long felt that to be true as the game is quite popular both here in the US as well as in Europe. I’m pretty sure it beats out FFXI on all fronts. There is no doubt in my mind that LOTRO is above the 500k mark."
we get
"Well I’m starting to suspect you may be right, but I need some guidance from Turbine before I’m willing to make any corrections."
Indicating the author now thinks it might be 500K!
Conclusion the author has no idea. I have sympathy that he is trying to do an impossible job with this number, but if you can't decide if it is 150K or 500K, probably best not to publish anything or you get people quoting figures in ignorance.
Yeah, if LotRO is so successful as some people claims in this thread then I think that Turbine would have announced it with bells and whistles already.
I personally think that the sub numbers are less than 100k now but thats just my gut feeling.
I read someone that publicly traded company can't release their sub numbers, it has nothing to do with them being low.
I dont think this is correct.
www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/loadNews/8872
They tried to release some sort of a sub numbers to gain other players intrested. But since their sub is low, they come out with this 4mil charac created...... thing.
Not that Turbine is a bad company, seeing they have improve with LOTR, but i really hope for their sake, they have more innovative idea, else their game will be very boring. If their next mmo fail ( less than 500k sub) than i think it will be their last venture in this gene.
You need 500k to not be a failure??
And what does the 4million character thing have to do with sub-numbers? Its Turibnes policy not to reveal sub numbers period... Characters created was just a marketing ploy giving out somekind of number that doenst give anything away.. Turbine and everyone else knows they are not close to WoWs numbers and will never be so releaseing the numbers have no purpose.
Turbine is an independet company which meeans they dont have to show any numbers to the public.
If WoW = The Beatles
and WAR = Led Zeppelin
Then LotrO = Pink Floyd
Depends what the company deems a failure isn't it, some may be realistic with their sub estimates and be happy with 100k subs to cut even or make a profit, who are we to decide what is profitable and what isn't when there are games out there that seem to defy that very logic, I mean if it's true that Neocron2 has about 6k subs then how come it's still going?
I would dare not try to understand why 1 company deems having so few customers as being worthwhile in keeping the servers going but they do and let us be glad that such companies are still around because if it was left to those that had millions of customers what choices are we as gamers left with then? not bloody many at all.
Agree, vive la difference!
Turbine have shown they will close a MMO if they need to. The fact they are not closing AC1, LOTRO or DDO would indicate they are making money from at least some of them. My own suspicion is that LOTRO is a lot bigger than people want to believe (should probably point out I tried it and it wasn't for me, but was hard to ignore it would have mass appeal).
The fact is Turbine are making another MMO and more importantly were able to get funding to do so. End of subject really, hope that doesn't come as too great a disappointment to the people still sore over Turbine winning lots of MMORPG awards.
Actually, no and I did read the whole thing. I'm a regular fan of their work. The point of posting that was that there are "estimates" out there based on facts and public information. That site has generally done a damn good job of tracking sub numbers and always posts their reservations, caveats and whatnot. I'm not out to prove any specific sub level here, just show that the person claiming under 100k is way off base according to the most reasonable source available.
Actually, no and I did read the whole thing. I'm a regular fan of their work. The point of posting that was that there are "estimates" out there based on facts and public information. That site has generally done a damn good job of tracking sub numbers and always posts their reservations, caveats and whatnot. I'm not out to prove any specific sub level here, just show that the person claiming under 100k is way off base according to the most reasonable source available.
If you did indeed read it, you should have known better than to quote figures that even the author isn't happy with. A lot of people are too lazy to check if what they are being told isn't pure fantasy.
You're pointlessly nitpicking. Why not quote the best-guess figures from what is widely regarded as the best source out there for that kind of information? I made no claims as to their precision and the site itself explains ALL their estimates with that kind of ratings disclaimer, very few MMO sub numbers are "solid". I'm a little baffled why you seem to feel this is something to argue over. I'm not trying to use the source to prove some claim of specific subscription numbers, simply showing how far off the "under 100k" estimate probably is, according to the best source available.
With the Lord of the Rings IP Turbine should be able to have atleast a couple of million subs so in that regard is LotRO a failure.
You may think that LotRO is the most fun MMORPG that you have ever played but that's not the point.
Neocron 2 may stay afloat on 6k subs because they have no devs working on new content, no GM:s and no custom support.
You can't really compare the world of Tolkien with some unknown sci-fi MMO.
The thread is about whether Turbine will make another MMO, not what LoTRO's sub numbers are.
I think the Harry Potter MMO is very likely but it will be geared towards the younger crowd in my opinion. I don't think fans of this site would like a Harry Potter MMO and it will probably be marketed to teens.
DDO combat, instances and character creation are at the top of the genre.
LoTRO is getting better with time and has an amazing world and community.
AC was one of the greatest pvp games of all time and was my favorite out of UO and EQ. AC2 was also a very fun game and WoW borrowed so much from that game.
Now if they can take all the strengths they have now with their experience and development platform as well as all the great systems from their other games, they could hit a huge homerun.
What Turbine really needs to do when they release a new game is get a station pass thing going. If they made a new AC included DDO and LoTRO for 25 bucks a month, I would be signed up instantly.
Within this very thread the problem with the MMO community reveals itself.
Everyone thinks they're smarter than they really are.
There is really no way to guess a games subs, and any attempt to do so would be just that. A guess. There is really no way to measure a games success aside from your personal involvement or the involvement of people you know.
Its funny to see people call DDO a failure. The game has been running for what, 3 years now. And from what I can tell they are still releasing major content updates for free. If Turbine were losing money (which is what i would consider a failure) I'm sure they would discontinue support for it. There are games that fold within the first year.
Apologies if I seem like I am arguing for the sake of it. Quoting unreliable sources, just because there is nothing better out there is one of my pet hates, nothing personal.
Slightly at a tangent but he actually marks LOTRO as a group B, which indicates a good source which he clearly doesn't have by his own admission. But that is just me nitpicking.
Wha?! Im not a fan of LotRO but I will say that it has done very well. Next to WoW probably the most successful to come out since. Which has done better?
Also, I just downloaded the DDO trial not too long ago and while it was not for me I could tell that it is certainly not on its demise. There were tons of new players and all the old players were ready and willing to help newbs. They just added a new module and people are coming back. Its a steady going game.
playing: darkfall
waiting: earthrise
I think Turbine did a fantastic job on Lotro and besides Blizzard they would be the #1 company to host another MMO.
With the Lord of the Rings IP Turbine should be able to have atleast a couple of million subs so in that regard is LotRO a failure.
You may think that LotRO is the most fun MMORPG that you have ever played but that's not the point.
Neocron 2 may stay afloat on 6k subs because they have no devs working on new content, no GM:s and no custom support.
You can't really compare the world of Tolkien with some unknown sci-fi MMO.
Most unintelligent post ever.
With the Lord of the Rings IP Turbine should be able to have atleast a couple of million subs so in that regard is LotRO a failure.
You may think that LotRO is the most fun MMORPG that you have ever played but that's not the point.
Neocron 2 may stay afloat on 6k subs because they have no devs working on new content, no GM:s and no custom support.
You can't really compare the world of Tolkien with some unknown sci-fi MMO.
Most unintelligent post ever.
I must agree with you there. I think his reasoning is somehow...off. Anyway, I think the question has been answered. YES, turbine is making another MMO.
I agree with you there. I would buy any future game that those 2 companies put out.
Different kinds of companies but I respect them both for very different reasons. I love Blizzard's game engine and the fluid game play and I love Turbine's high quality in their games and the insanely HUGE free updates.
IF Turbine did launch another MMO- would that be a MMO company record? To have 4 live MMO's online at one time?
How many does Sony have?
Just an improved AC2 with even more lore, would be best forget ac1 its to old.
Games played:AC1-Darktide'99-2000-AC2-Darktide/dawnsong2003-2005,Lineage2-2005-2006 and now Darkfall-2009.....
In between WoW few months AoC few months and some f2p also all very short few weeks.
This is incorrect.
It is correct.
LOTRO is doing great.
Its not WOW 12 million. But it has at least estimated 300.000 players which seems to be enough to keep it well and profitable for Turbine.
Servers are packed and everyone is happy with the game.
Today Turbine is considered to be second best MMO developer after Blizzard...so thats not bad aswell
Because the Harry Potter IP will probably end up with some stupid nibwit studio with too much grey cash and sleek talk and fuck up another great IP, like has happened to Star Wars (and again with the new one), Conan, Matrix and soon also Star Trek.